162 DH Starts

[Ultimate]

THe Jays seem to be focusing their cash on other holes besides DH this offseason despite the fact that we don't have a legit DH. I think is a good plan. I believe they plan to use the DH spot to spell their veterans throughout the year and hopefully keep them healthy. I thought it would be interesting to plan out a full season of DH assignments. Curious what you guys think of my ideas.

 

Assumptions

-Jays will face a lefty starter 46 out of 162 games

-Josh Thole will be the backup catcher (Navarro traded)

-Dickey will make 32 starts (in 13 of those starts the opposing SP will be a LHP)

-Russell Martin will start 125 games at catcher, Josh Thole will thus start the remaining 37

 

23 games Vs RHP - Dickey Starts with Thole catching all

-Martin DH's 12 games

-Edwin DH's 11 games (with Smoak 1B)

 

9 games vs LHP - Dickey starts with Martin catching all

-Donaldson DH's 4 (with Valencia 3B, Edwin 1B)

-Bautista DH's 5 (with Pillar RF, Edwin 1B)

 

37 games vs LHP non Dickey starts with Martin catching all

-Donaldson DH's 19 (with Valencia 3B, Edwin 1B)

-Bautista DH's 18 (with Pillar RF, Edwin 1B)

 

93 games vs RHP non Dickey starts (Thole will catch 14, Martin will catch 79)

-Reyes DH's 23 games (with Goins SS)

-Martin DH's 7 games

-Edwin DH's 63 games (with Smoak 1B)

 

Reasons

I would like to have Martin DH half of the games in which he is not catching. I don't know if that is too much or not enough. But I would think it would be doable.

-I don't want Thole or Goins to start against a LHP ever

-I want our key veterans (Bautista, Donaldson, Reyes) to get at least 1 day off from the field a week

-Would want Edwin to get 3 days off from the field a week

-Want to give these guys extra time off from the field so that we don't have to take their bats out of the lineup less often. (never in an unrealistic perfect world) and minimize DL time over the season.

-Smoak would only start 74 games at 1B but would be a key pinch hitter in the other games

-Want to take advantage of Thole's chemistry with Dickey, while still exposing Martin to the knuckle-ball somewhat. In the playoffs Martin would probably catch every game, you wouldn't want him learning it then.

[43211234]

Edwin is going to be DHing probably 70% of the time and I think Smoak gets about the same proportion of starts over at 1B.

 

I'm perfectly fine with giving Smoak a shot at first everyday for such a bargain price. You'd be hard pressed to find a meaningful upgrade at first base that would be worth the cost.

Edited December 6, 2014 by 43211234

[burlingtonbandit]

I think you'd try and get Bautista, Reyes and Donaldson a day at DH for 7 or 8 games on the turf. Perhaps Donaldson could go a few more without but Reyes definitely. I think you can start Pillar for Saunders every few games vs LHP at home as well to get him off the turf.

[RealAccountant]

Smoak can be something special waiting to happen

[intentional wok]

A lot of that seems reasonable, but what about @NL games? I'm pretty sure at least 10 games were played without a DH last year, maybe more.

 

I'd make those unanimously Martin starts, with Edwin at first. This is a no-brainer, I think. Worth mentioning though because there are distinctly not 162 DH positions in a season.

[jayswin11]

There won't be 162 DH games due to inter league play.

 

The thought process is good though. I don't think Donaldson will DH that much though.

[Deadpool]

Mostly agree with the premise of the original post, but as was pointed out interleague is (sadly) still a thing, and I really do see Edwin DHing in more than 74 games.

[Jimcanuck]

Want Edwin to get some time in the field to retain more value accumulate more WAR. In case the team needs to be blown up.

[jayswin11]

Mostly agree with the premise of the original post, but as was pointed out interleague is (sadly) still a thing, and I really do see Edwin DHing in more than 74 games.

 

I agree. I see Edwin playing 2/3 of the games as a DH. Will only Play 1B to give Bautista/Martin/etc... a day at DH. Valencia and Smoak will platoon at 1st. Martin will be playing almost every day, DHing every 5th.

[jayswin11]

..and ya, time to scrap inter-league.

[ineedsheet]

i think the tough part about allocating rest days / dh stints is that you want to get your fielders off the turf, but also take advantage of Rogers Centre's favourable splits toward right-handed power.

 

the core of the team should be getting 5-7 rest days assuming completely healthy, IMO.

 

 

10 inter league / 152 games DH. assuming 54 LHP, 108 RHP

 

DH: 147 edwin / 5 reyes

1B: 10 Edwin (inter league), 101 smoak (RHP), 51 valencia (LHP)

2B: 157 travis, 5 goins/kawa/izturis (RHP)

SS: 148 reyes, 14 goins/kawa/izturis (RHP)

3b: 157 donaldson, 5 valencia (LHP)

RF: 157 jose, 5 pillar (LHP)

CF: 153 pompey, 7 pillar (LHP)

LF: 153 saunders, 7 pillar (LHP)

C: 128 martin, 34 thole (dickey)

[Ultimate]

I had forgotten about inter-league play. Good point.

 

I still stand by my position that the key guys need a significant number of games at DH.

 

Valencia hasn't played much 1B, sure he can play there (anyone can) but its not a position he is comfortable at. If you have him in the lineup anyway. Why not play him at his natural position (3B) and use that as an opportunity to allow Donaldson to get a day off from the field.

 

Its very unlikely that Bautista, Donaldson and Reyes are all going to hold up for around 150 games in the field each. Trying for that pretty much guarantees a DL stint for 2 out of 3 of them.

 

My plan increases the odds of team health significantly over a plan that calls for Edwin to DH pretty much every day.

[ineedsheet]

I had forgotten about inter-league play. Good point.

 

I still stand by my position that the key guys need a significant number of games at DH.

 

Valencia hasn't played much 1B, sure he can play there (anyone can) but its not a position he is comfortable at. If you have him in the lineup anyway. Why not play him at his natural position (3B) and use that as an opportunity to allow Donaldson to get a day off from the field.

 

Its very unlikely that Bautista, Donaldson and Reyes are all going to hold up for around 150 games in the field each. Trying for that pretty much guarantees a DL stint for 2 out of 3 of them.

 

My plan increases the odds of team health significantly over a plan that calls for Edwin to DH pretty much every day.

 

Valencia was pretty good (both eyetest and small sample sized stats) at 1b, and actually the transition between 3b and 1b is pretty natural and there is huge precedent for it.

 

Although "wear and tear" contributes to injury risk, i don't think necessarily it is the only factor, and until then, we should be playing our regular rotations and adjust accordingly.

 

I do however agree that 153 games for reyes is too much, i wouldn't be too opposed to giving goins or kawa 8 additional games and limiting his PT to about 145 games... keep him off the turf as much as possible

[Ultimate]

You're right, its not the only factor, but it is a very significant one.

 

Kawasaki is gone, even if he did come back he is not good enough defensively to play the left side of the infield.

 

Sure Valencia could be fine at 1B, but why not take the opportunity to rest Donaldson (with his bat in the lineup) and put Valencia where he is best and most comfortable.

[burlingtonbandit]

You're right, its not the only factor, but it is a very significant one.

 

Kawasaki is gone, even if he did come back he is not good enough defensively to play the left side of the infield.

 

Sure Valencia could be fine at 1B, but why not take the opportunity to rest Donaldson (with his bat in the lineup) and put Valencia where he is best and most comfortable.

 

Probably because Donaldson is a hell of a lot better defensively than Valencia. Im fine with letting Donaldson DH every 10 games at RC but everytime there is a LHP I don't want Donaldson DHing.

[ElNik2013]

No one has said Valencia shouldn't play 3B when Donaldson is rested, in fact, you can bet he will. I think the Jays made it clear they'll use the DH spot to give off days to some of the regulars although EE will be the primary DH.

 

 

We'll see what happens.

[raBBit]

One injury and this whole concoction goes out the window.

[G-Snarls]

1. I like this thread

2. I like Ultimate's general idea

3. I agree you don't need a full time DH

4. There will be some games @ NL parks with no DH

5. We won't be able to avoid having Thole face the occasional LHP

6. I think between EE/Smoak/Velencia and off days for the regulars it can be done well

7. I actually trust Gibby to do a good job of this. With Farrell I would not have.

[Deadpool]

DH: 147 edwin / 5 reyes

 

This is too far in the other direction, IMO. Edwin CAN play 1B (and theoretically 3B and LF, though I would hate to see that in more than an emergency situation) and the DH spot is a great place to give regulars a "half day". I'd probably be okay with Edwin DHing say... ~90-100 games (possibly even a bit less) and the other ~50-~60 rotated between (mostly) Reyes and Bautista. Martin could definitely DH on some days w/ Thole (or hopefully someone better) catching, and Donaldson could probably use a half day now and then as well...

[G-Snarls]

This is too far in the other direction, IMO. Edwin CAN play 1B (and theoretically 3B and LF, though I would hate to see that in more than an emergency situation) and the DH spot is a great place to give regulars a "half day". I'd probably be okay with Edwin DHing say... ~90-100 games (possibly even a bit less) and the other ~50-~60 rotated between (mostly) Reyes and Bautista. Martin could definitely DH on some days w/ Thole (or hopefully someone better) catching, and Donaldson could probably use a half day now and then as well...

 

I hear Donadlson gets pissy if the GM questions his off days.

[burlingtonbandit]

1. I like this thread

2. I like Ultimate's general idea

3. I agree you don't need a full time DH

4. There will be some games @ NL parks with no DH

5. We won't be able to avoid having Thole face the occasional LHP

6. I think between EE/Smoak/Velencia and off days for the regulars it can be done well

7. I actually trust Gibby to do a good job of this. With Farrell I would not have.

 

If Martin catches Dickey we will.

[G-Snarls]

If Martin catches Dickey we will.

 

Excellent point

[Jimcanuck]

One thing you definitely do not want is having to put EE at 3B or LF in an emergency, and he hasn't played in the field in a month. You want to give all the players a regular turn in the field for that reason.

[Ultimate]

Probably because Donaldson is a hell of a lot better defensively than Valencia. Im fine with letting Donaldson DH every 10 games at RC but everytime there is a LHP I don't want Donaldson DHing.

 

You'll note that I don't have DOnaldson DHing for every LH pitcher. Not even close.

[Ultimate]

7. I actually trust Gibby to do a good job of this. With Farrell I would not have.

 

Same here, he is definitely better at mixing and matching than JF.

[Dick_Pole]

THe Jays seem to be focusing their cash on other holes besides DH this offseason despite the fact that we don't have a legit DH. I think is a good plan. I believe they plan to use the DH spot to spell their veterans throughout the year and hopefully keep them healthy. I thought it would be interesting to plan out a full season of DH assignments. Curious what you guys think of my ideas.

 

Assumptions

-Jays will face a lefty starter 46 out of 162 games

-Josh Thole will be the backup catcher (Navarro traded)

-Dickey will make 32 starts (in 13 of those starts the opposing SP will be a LHP)

-Russell Martin will start 125 games at catcher, Josh Thole will thus start the remaining 37

 

23 games Vs RHP - Dickey Starts with Thole catching all

-Martin DH's 12 games

-Edwin DH's 11 games (with Smoak 1B)

 

9 games vs LHP - Dickey starts with Martin catching all

-Donaldson DH's 4 (with Valencia 3B, Edwin 1B)

-Bautista DH's 5 (with Pillar RF, Edwin 1B)

 

37 games vs LHP non Dickey starts with Martin catching all

-Donaldson DH's 19 (with Valencia 3B, Edwin 1B)

-Bautista DH's 18 (with Pillar RF, Edwin 1B)

 

93 games vs RHP non Dickey starts (Thole will catch 14, Martin will catch 79)

-Reyes DH's 23 games (with Goins SS)

-Martin DH's 7 games

-Edwin DH's 63 games (with Smoak 1B)

 

Reasons

I would like to have Martin DH half of the games in which he is not catching. I don't know if that is too much or not enough. But I would think it would be doable.

-I don't want Thole or Goins to start against a LHP ever

-I want our key veterans (Bautista, Donaldson, Reyes) to get at least 1 day off from the field a week

-Would want Edwin to get 3 days off from the field a week

-Want to give these guys extra time off from the field so that we don't have to take their bats out of the lineup less often. (never in an unrealistic perfect world) and minimize DL time over the season.

-Smoak would only start 74 games at 1B but would be a key pinch hitter in the other games

-Want to take advantage of Thole's chemistry with Dickey, while still exposing Martin to the knuckle-ball somewhat. In the playoffs Martin would probably catch every game, you wouldn't want him learning it then.

 

Please forward to:

 

john.gibbons@rci.rogers.com

[Spanky99]

Edwin is going to be DHing probably 70% of the time and I think Smoak gets about the same proportion of starts over at 1B.

 

I'm perfectly fine with giving Smoak a shot at first everyday for such a bargain price. You'd be hard pressed to find a meaningful upgrade at first base that would be worth the cost.

 

Davidi and Blair basically echoed, this post, and I agree. As it stands now, of course.

[Spanky99]

Please forward to:

 

john.gibbons@rci.rogers.com

 

They're already planning to do this, if Navarro's moved. Even if Navvy stays, they plan on doing something very similar on the turf.

[Deadpool]

Please forward to:

 

john.gibbons@rci.rogers.com

 

a) It'd be hilarious if that was his Email.

You know DAMN WELL that Gibby doesn't own a computer.

[Dick_Pole]

a) It'd be hilarious if that was his Email.

You know DAMN WELL that Gibby doesn't own a computer.

 

I'm sure he's got one of those old school computers with a big floppy disk for his pinball game. Probably goes bragging about it in the clubhouse as well.

 

PS replace the s with c in disk in this sentence and have a laugh re-reading it.