Did AA Fleece Beane?

[Nox]

Steamer assumes an awful lot of offensive improvement simply based on age.

 

Watching him play all year, it's obvious that he'll actually have to make some serious adjustments in approach or mechanics to see that improvement.

 

And he's retarded, so that doesn't bode well for his chances to become a more cerebral hitter.

 

I suppose It's also possible that Lawrie's numbers from the past couple of years are suppressed by playing partially hurt (if he was trying to fight through things or came back a bit too early etc). If we knew that to be the case (we don't) we would upgrade his projection for the upcoming year. Not that Steamer has any of that info either.

 

This team is alot more likable now. After getting rid of JPA and Lawrie, only one giant DB remains (Bautista). At least he's a bona fide superstar which makes his s*** more tolerable.

[saskjayfan]

Beane knows what he is doing. Lawrie appears to be healthy, passed a medical. He's ~4 years younger than Davidson, and he's entering his prime, whereas, Davidson is in his prime. They fill their need at 3b, get very serviceable pitching prospects who could end up being quite decent. They also get a highly tooled very young SS that will hold value.

 

Beane has done this many times before, he's spread out his risk over several guys and saves money because he knows Donaldson is going to hit high numbers in arb. The Jays DID get the best player in the trade, right now. However, I wouldn't even call this near a fleecing because I think Barreto is the sleeper player in the deal. This happens time and time again, a team thinks they won their trade with Oak, yet 2-4 years later, you all of a sudden see the players you traded away starting to put up big numbers in Oakland and then somehow they make the playoffs.

 

So no, it wasn't a fleecing, unless you're a hardcore blue jays fan and love every move this team makes, then yes, it was.

 

Who's that Davidson guy? Lawrie will likely take a step forward next year. I doubt he reaches Donaldson level....maybe the following year he does reach full potential. Lawrie's ceiling is where Donaldson is already at. He comes with injury concerns and he has 3 years of control. Donaldson has 4 years of control and he's not going to decline much in his 29 to 32 age years. Look at what the trade deadline was like this year. What sort of prospects will Donaldson fetch in 2 or 3 years if you want to trade him? He's a very valuable asset.

[xposbrad]

Who's that Davidson guy? Lawrie will likely take a step forward next year. I doubt he reaches Donaldson level....maybe the following year he does reach full potential. Lawrie's ceiling is where Donaldson is already at. He comes with injury concerns and he has 3 years of control. Donaldson has 4 years of control and he's not going to decline much in his 29 to 32 age years. Look at what the trade deadline was like this year. What sort of prospects will Donaldson fetch in 2 or 3 years if you want to trade him? He's a very valuable asset.

 

Donaldson is the best player in the deal, no one is arguing that, in 3 years, at 32 years old, he won't be getting the value you think. He's a 3b, so realistically a team is looking at what, 2 more years of good productivity out of him at that point for that position? It's quite possible Lawrie would have more value, especially if he's signed long term. I think in 3 years, you will see if Barreto has played high enough ball to be considered a top 100 prospect.

[burlingtonbandit]

I think we all realize Lawrie has "star" potential. The big ? besides health is his swing. If they can rework his swing so he doesn't hit so many groundballs Lawrie can be a superstar. If it all comes together for Lawrie I wouldn't be surprised to see a 6 win player. That said, the chances of it "all coming together" at this point are pretty slim.

 

From a Jays POV even if Lawrie has a 5-6 win season in 2016 or 2017 I don't think you can be mad at the deal. Donaldson has been one of the best in baseball and this team needs more concrete answers than question marks going into the season.

[King]

Donaldson is the best player in the deal, no one is arguing that, in 3 years, at 32 years old, he won't be getting the value you think. He's a 3b, so realistically a team is looking at what, 2 more years of good productivity out of him at that point for that position? It's quite possible Lawrie would have more value, especially if he's signed long term. I think in 3 years, you will see if Barreto has played high enough ball to be considered a top 100 prospect.

 

Barreto could be a top 100 prospect as soon as this offseason.

[fatcowxlive]

I think fleece is putting it nicely. Lawrie's ceiling, if he could stay healthy, might not be at Donaldson's level anymore and his health is a big if. And I don't know why people are really hyping Barreto that much, yes he has potential, but he's only 18. In two years time he could be a flop, but once again, his chances of being an MVP calibre player are very very slim.

 

We got the best 3B in the game for a constantly injured 3B, a high potential but very young prospect, and essentially two filler arms. Trades like this don't just happen all the time

[fatcowxlive]

Barreto could be a top 100 prospect as soon as this offseason.

 

Top 100 prospect != MVP calibre player. Just saying

[Hipfan]

Time will tell if this is a fleecing, but while some people are questioning why Donaldson is being dealt, so should they question why the Jays would offer up Lawrie. Obviously they Jays have some serious questions about him because he could turn into an all-star, and he's Canadian to boot. So for them to offer him up makes me wonder if he will ever put it together.

 

Had the Jays done a deal like this last winter, I'd be much more upset about losing Lawrie, but after watching him for a few years now I don't think he will live up to the hype/potential ceiling. That's not to say he won't be a useful, or even a very good player, but I question whether he will ever reach all-star performance, which I didn't a year ago.

 

Either way, super pumped to have Donaldson on the team; the middle of the order will be terrorizing to pitchers! Now bring back Melky and the lineup will have some depth...

[King]

Top 100 prospect != MVP calibre player. Just saying

 

I don't think that. But I've already seen people call Barreto a "meh" prospect and "maybe top 100 in 3 years". The guy can flat out rake and he could finish next year in High A or AA as a 19 year old. Will he become an MVP calibre MLB player? The odds are against 95% against him, but he certainly has the potential to be star.

 

It's like Price trade. The Rays knew what they were getting with Adames, I even read an executive called him a centerpiece to the deal. Guy is a stud.

 

But still, paying Nolin + Graveman + Barreto is a very small price to pay to essentially upgrade 3B to Lawries absolute ceiling (which he may never reach).

 

Jays did a great job with Graveman, the guy signed for $5000 and now he's one of 4 players in a deal for one of the best players in baseball.

[Caper]

He took a risk.

 

It all hinges on Lawrie of course. Lawrie's talent is equivalent (and arguably higher) than Donaldson. He's also younger. If Lawrie stays healthy and re-finds the power stroke, Beane wins.

 

 

 

No it doesn't. Lawrie could just be ok, the other pitchers be better then expected or be as expected and then the dirty Beurito comes up in a few years and dominates.... And then it was a good trade. I think he could have extracted a bit more. Maybe a Castro or a Mitch Nay... Or something like that. But it wasn't a horrible trade for what he wanted to do.

[jays76]

Here's an article that backs what some are saying regarding Beane and the long term numbers crunching. Saying Beane got fleeced is a massive stretch! For the Jays making a push within this next 2 or 3yr window it's just what the doctor ordered, for the long term maybe not so much but kudos to AA.

 

http://www.rantsports.com/mlb/2014/11/28/oakland-athletics-win-josh-donaldson-brett-lawrie-trade/

[ineedsheet]

He took a risk.

 

It all hinges on Lawrie of course. Lawrie's talent is equivalent (and arguably higher) than Donaldson. He's also younger. If Lawrie stays healthy and re-finds the power stroke, Beane wins.

 

josh donaldson was the second or third best player in baseball the past two seasons and is still only 29.

 

lawrie's ceiling isn't even ARGUABLY equivalent to josh donaldson right now. literally does nothing better and probably never will.

[Caper]

J

Here's an article that backs what some are saying regarding Beane and the long term numbers crunching. Saying Beane got fleeced is a massive stretch! For the Jays making a push within this next 2 or 3yr window it's just what the doctor ordered, for the long term maybe not so much but kudos to AA.

 

http://www.rantsports.com/mlb/2014/11/28/oakland-athletics-win-josh-donaldson-brett-lawrie-trade/

 

 

 

It kind of bothers me, this obsession with "winning the trade". If the Jays win the division next year, did we "win the trade"? Do we have to wish ill will on all the players we traded so we can brag on a message board that we "won the trade"? I think it's great when a player we deal does well. It helps AAs reputation and gets deals done in the future.

[glory]

It kind of bothers me, this obsession with "winning the trade". If the Jays win the division next year, did we "win the trade"? Do we have to wish ill will on all the players we traded so we can brag on a message board that we "won the trade"? I think it's great when a player we deal does well. It helps AAs reputation and gets deals done in the future.

 

Agreed. All four of the players given up could have good MLB careers and I wouldn't care as long as Donaldson was elite in Toronto and the Jays had some playoff appearances (best case a title) in that time. There isn't anything remotely significant about Lawrie failing in Oakland. If he did, so what? If he succeeds over there, so what? The trade from the Jays perspective is about how Donaldson does. If he delivers as he has the last two seasons, then the Jays will be happy regardless.

[Spoonovic]

If you were the Jays and Beane said that he wasn't doing the deal unless it was Sanchez instead of Nolin, would you do it?

[SAAviour]

If you were the Jays and Beane said that he wasn't doing the deal unless it was Sanchez instead of Nolin, would you do it?

 

Not me, but I bet most would.

[King]

If you were the Jays and Beane said that he wasn't doing the deal unless it was Sanchez instead of Nolin, would you do it?

 

Yes.

[RealAccountant]

Most here would have done Donaldson for Lawrie, Sanchez/Norris, Bareto, Gravemen, and Nolin

 

Including me.

[BTS]

If you were the Jays and Beane said that he wasn't doing the deal unless it was Sanchez instead of Nolin, would you do it?

 

OF course.

[TwistedLogic]

This trade feels even better after you look at what the Jays actually gave up to ultimately make this deal happen. Nolin was signed four years ago in the sixth round of the amateur draft, Graveman was signed as relief of cap space for $5000, Barreto was signed from the IFA market, and Lawrie was obtained in a 1-1 trade for Shaun Marcum.

 

The Jays created all of these assets without giving up anything of really significant value to obtain them, and then turned them into an MVP-level player.

[jays76]

J

 

 

 

It kind of bothers me, this obsession with "winning the trade". If the Jays win the division next year, did we "win the trade"? Do we have to wish ill will on all the players we traded so we can brag on a message board that we "won the trade"? I think it's great when a player we deal does well. It helps AAs reputation and gets deals done in the future.

 

Yeah for sure, I'm happy we made this deal and it makes us that much better today. If we win now and the A's win later it was constructive for both teams, it will take so much time for the dust to settle anyways. I don't think either side will have too many regrets with this one..

[jays76]

If you were the Jays and Beane said that he wasn't doing the deal unless it was Sanchez instead of Nolin, would you do it?

 

No I'd be hesitant, there's too big of a gap between Nolin and Sanchez's potential. I'm happy it never came to that

[G-Snarls]

AA has now acquired two near MVP caliber, yet somehow still undervalued players in Martin and Donaldson

 

These seem like exactly the sorts of moves once considered Beane-esque

 

Beane has lost his way

 

And I love what AA has done this off season (so far)

[FireAlexAnthopoulos]

There's no polishing this turd for Beane... he got destroyed. Most overrated GM in the history of sports.

[G-Snarls]

Jeez, for some reason I thought Donaldson was on a semi-hefty contract, but he's still dirt cheap and controllable for years. There's nothing not to love about this. Except my $250 Lawrie jersey is garbage now. Does anyone re-do jerseys?? I just need the characters T S R M O N 6 A and I'll figure out something to make out of it.

[KingKat]

This trade feels even better after you look at what the Jays actually gave up to ultimately make this deal happen. Nolin was signed four years ago in the sixth round of the amateur draft, Graveman was signed as relief of cap space for $5000, Barreto was signed from the IFA market, and Lawrie was obtained in a 1-1 trade for Shaun Marcum.

 

The Jays created all of these assets without giving up anything of really significant value to obtain them, and then turned them into an MVP-level player.

 

Barreto was one of the most coveted players in the IFA market (considered by some to be THE best player in his year). The Jays had to fight to get him although he was still ultimately well worth what it cost to sign him. I agree with the sentiment above but I don't feel it's quite accurate to lump him in with guys like Graveman and Nolin.

[KingKat]

Jeez, for some reason I thought Donaldson was on a semi-hefty contract, but he's still dirt cheap and controllable for years. There's nothing not to love about this. Except my $250 Lawrie jersey is garbage now. Does anyone re-do jerseys?? I just need the characters T S R M O N 6 A and I'll figure out something to make out of it.

 

Edited November 29, 2014 by G-Snarls

[canadiansportsjunkie]

What a deal for the Jays!

 

The trade is typical for Oakland follow their same logic for years now ( not counting last year, they decided to make a push ).

 

I'm hoping that Lawrie does well in Oakland, he was one of my favourites to watch just too much of a hot head at times and the injuries got out of hand.

 

Adding Donaldson was worth it

[TwistedLogic]

Barreto was one of the most coveted players in the IFA market (considered by some to be THE best player in his year). The Jays had to fight to get him although he was still ultimately well worth what it cost to sign him. I agree with the sentiment above but I don't feel it's quite accurate to lump him in with guys like Graveman and Nolin.

 

I didn't lump him in with Nolin and Graveman. My point was that he was an asset that was created by the Jays by simply giving up the money to sign him. They didn't need to use a high draft pick, they didn't have to trade anything to acquire him. IFA signings are mostly credit to a team's front office and scouting department, where they need to originally find these guys, recognize their talent, and then actually sell the team to the player to try and sway them into signing with their club as opposed to any of the other teams.

 

I guess what I was trying to say is that while the Donaldson trade is an excellent move, the four moves that preceded it to make it possible were also excellent moves (Marcum for Lawrie, 5K for Graveman, 175K for Nolin, 1.45M for Barreto).

 

 

[ScientificReason]

Yes he did.