Jays get Josh Donaldson for Lawrie, Graveman, Nolin and Barreto

[TDotttt2005]

No he will still fall short. Lawrie doesn't have the power or the plate discipline.

 

I believe he has the power, and there is still some left to be unlocked, as he is only 24. He slugged on 30pts less than Donaldson last season in his age 24 injury-riddled season. 25-30 HR power is there. I guess you could argue though, that out of the Coliseum, Donaldson has 35-40HR power. We'll see.

 

Totally agree on plate discipline though.

[IBTrini]

Wow, I have no idea why I thought Donaldson made 10 mil...makes it a lot better at just 1st arbitration....why the f*** was beans so intent on trading him. We still gave up a s*** ton though.

Beane was not, Anthopolous just wore him out with his calls.

[BigCecil]

No he will still fall short. Lawrie doesn't have the power or the plate discipline.

 

Too early to make that judgement on Lawrie imo. His D consistently improved and he has enough raw athletic ability to figure it out at the plate....he just needs to stay healthy and off the Red Bull and let the ball travel to the zone instead of jumping at it so often. Im amazed with his approach he hit as much as he has so far.

 

JD is a major here and now upgrade.

[Jimcanuck]

Also, Lawrie could be Zobrist 2.0

 

Is Beane going... a 5 WAR player when healthy that can play multiple positions.... yes, I like

[Spanky99]

please trade Reyes for a bag of balls

 

Derp!

[Statman]

Also, Lawrie could be Zobrist 2.0

 

Is Beane going... a 5 WAR player when healthy that can play multiple positions.... yes, I like

 

Bit of a stretch. I don't see Lawrie ever being a 5 WAR player nor having the ability to play infield and outfield like zobrist. Perhaps he can be a Zobrist 1.5.

[S33n]

:):D:):D

Couldn't believe my eyes last night when I saw this. I will miss Lawrie, but he hasn't lived up to his potential and has been struggling with staying healthy. I've never been one to over value prospects (especially ones that are at least 2-3 years away, anything can happen), and I don't think we'll miss the depth of those backend type starters with the way our roster is set up right now. I LOVE THIS DEAL.

 

Without looking at the stats, we got a top 5 player in baseball (by WAR) over the last 2 seasons, on the cheap!

 

Please trade Reyes for a bag of balls now, or move him to LF or something. Thank you AA.

[wardhenke1]

I don't know about a bag of balls, but I'd trade Reyes for Tulo right now. Hell if we can get Donaldson for Lawrie and mid-level prospects, why not Tulo and still keep Stroman, Sanchez and Pompey? We can dream right?

 

After yesterday almost anything seems possible.

[S33n]

Have you even played baseball?

 

Nope, never. Only that one when I made my debut in the IBL at the age of 18, and that other time I moved to Missouri when I was 19 to play NCAA ball for 5 years (red shirt freshman). Other than that, never played.

[Spanky99]

Ugghhh...

[S33n]

I don't know about a bag of balls, but I'd trade Reyes for Tulo right now. Hell if we can get Donaldson for Lawrie and mid-level prospects, why not Tulo and still keep Stroman, Sanchez and Pompey? We can dream right?

 

After yesterday almost anything seems possible.

 

Yeah, I'm exaggerating about the bag of balls part. But his contract and what he provides aren't a good ratio. I think he hurts this team defensively at short stop.

 

Yeah I'd trade a lot more than just Reyes for Tulo.

[Nox]

#1 AA Anti-Fanboy checking in:

 

From the information we have available to us, this is a really good deal for Toronto.

 

Even with people vastly underrating Lawrie in this thread, the sum of the parts in a vacuum don't quite add up to what we project Donaldson to be over the next 4(!) years of team control. When you factor in the Jays' position on the win curve, we see marginal wins acquired are worth quite a bit more than usual. It's a good to very good deal for the Jays.

 

Oakland - I'm not exactly sure what they're doing. Trading 4 years of one of the best players in the game seems a bit counter to their usual MO. I can only assume that their internal projections reflect what Steamer is telling us re: Lawrie and that they have some seriously positive reports on Barreto.

[Laika]

#1 AA Anti-Fanboy checking in:

 

From the information we have available to us, this is a really good deal for Toronto.

 

Even with people vastly underrating Lawrie in this thread, the sum of the parts in a vacuum don't quite add up to what we project Donaldson to be over the next 4(!) years of team control. When you factor in the Jays' position on the win curve, we see marginal wins acquired are worth quite a bit more than usual. It's a good to very good deal for the Jays.

 

Oakland - I'm not exactly sure what they're doing. Trading 4 years of one of the best players in the game seems a bit counter to their usual MO. I can only assume that their internal projections reflect what Steamer is telling us re: Lawrie and that they have some seriously positive reports on Barreto.

 

And if they think Kendall Graveman is more of a #3 a la Henderson Alvarez than just a backend SP, that swings things quite a bit.

 

ZiPS doesn't like Lawrie nearly as much as Steamer though:

 

[S33n]

Ugghhh...

 

cheer up. I have to mention that once every 3 years or so.

[jaysblue]

Does anyone have Keith Law's writeup on the trade?

[S33n]

Does anyone have Keith Law's writeup on the trade?

 

^^^^^

[saskjayfan]

Does anyone have Keith Law's writeup on the trade?

 

Yes...I read it. I'm pretty sure someone posted it on here somewhere.

[KingKat]

Brett Lawrie, In Memoriam

 

[saskjayfan]

Keith Law

 

The Blue Jays won the offseason two years ago with their huge deals with the Marlins and the Mets; those were mostly aimed at remaking their rotation. This winter, their moves so far have focused on overhauling the lineup, and while wins in November don't always mean wins the next October, a deal that nets them Josh Donaldson for Brett Lawrie and a trio of prospects is a damn good start for Toronto general manager Alex Anthopoulos. He's added one of the best players in baseball for a package of prospects that doesn't quite add up.

 

Donaldson turns 29 next month and is just entering his first year of arbitration, and he'll have four such seasons because he's a super-two player this winter. He's second among position players in WAR over the last two seasons, a contributor with his bat, his eye, his power, his glove, and his arm. My No. 76-ranked prospect heading into the 2008 season, Donaldson was drafted by the Cubs out of Auburn where he caught and played the infield corners, coming to Oakland as a "sleeper" in the Rich Harden trade. The A's kept trying to make him a catcher (understandably) until 2012, but soon after they settled him at third base, that compact swing and lower-body power came back.

 

Over the last two seasons, his only two full years in the majors, Donaldson ranks sixth in the majors in unintentional walks drawn and 18th in homers, the latter particularly impressive since he played half his games in a home-run graveyard. He's been the second-best third baseman in baseball over that span, behind only Adrian Beltre, and even a 5-WAR season from him -- worse than the Steamer projections for him for 2013 -- would be a 3-4 win upgrade for Toronto. I'd rather give up what Toronto gave up and pay Donaldson his arbitration salaries for four years than sign Pablo Sandoval for nine figures over five.

 

What I don't quite get is the A's portion of this, even if you take fairly optimistic views of all four players they acquired. Is this really enough for four years of control of one of the best players in baseball? Brett Lawrie is still only 24 years old, and has energy and athleticism to spare, but he gets hurt way too often and has become a severe groundball hitter thanks to a swing that has his hands moving down at the ball from his load. He's an above-average defender at third; he might make you think he's elite because of his highlight-reel plays, but scouts and advanced metrics (UZR/dRS) agree that he's not. What he does do well, however, is put the ball in play, a skill that GMs seem to be telling us this winter that they're valuing more highly than ever (tip your cap in the direction of Kansas City as you read that). There's power in the body if the A's can overhaul his swing, but that's a significant undertaking with any player -- and Lawrie will have to be healthy to make it matter. I still think his upside is a 4-5 win player, but I believe the probability of him getting there is half of what it used to be.

 

Franklin Barreto is a little fella, 5-foot-8 and 170 pounds or so, with a good feel to hit and plus speed but lacking strength to have even average power. He's a shortstop now, erratic but agile enough to become average to slightly above given time and a lot of patience, but with even odds or so that he ends up at second base because he can't develop the consistency he'll need to make 700 plays a year at short. I believe the bat will play somewhere, as his swing is very short and direct and he's shown excellent ability to barrel up the ball so far. He'll play all of 2015 at age 19 and should be able to go to the full-season Midwest League.

 

Sean Nolin and Kendall Graveman are both back-end starter types, working with fringy stuff and no real out pitch but above-average command and control. Graveman sits at or just under average velocity as a starter, but was 90-94 in relief at the end of the year for the Jays, getting on top of the ball well to generate downhill plane. Nolin, a left-hander, sits mostly 90-92 with a decent changeup, working by changing speeds and throwing strikes, but is a below-average athlete with a stiff delivery. Graveman has a little more upside with better velocity and a new cutter, while Nolin has size and the left-handedness. The big reveal here is that Oakland loves this type of player, having had success with guys like this in the past -- Tom Milone standing out as the best example, pitching well at home for the A's but much worse away from their pitcher-friendly park, taking advantage of their strong defense everywhere they played. Graveman and Nolin may have more value to Oakland than to most other suitors, but that doesn't alter the absolute balance of the deal.

 

I can understand what the Jays are doing -- they traded three prospects who are either far away or low upside, plus the one major-leaguer they'll directly replace in the deal, to acquire one of the best players in baseball, on top of signing one of the best catchers in baseball as a free agent. They still need to add a starting pitcher, but they have several young arms whom they can mix and match in the last two spots in the rotation. I can't quite fathom what the A's are doing, at least not yet; they signed Billy Butler, which seemed more like a win-now move, but dealing Donaldson makes the team worse in 2015 and doesn't save them that much money in the short term because he's only first-time eligible (for arbitration). They don't have a viable shortstop for this year, and could use an upgrade at second, which would imply they're thinking 2016 and beyond -- but in that case, why sign Butler for three years?

 

If Beane isn't playing for this year, he might have to look at trading Jeff Samardzija and/or Scott Kazmir now, as both players are free agents after 2015. I don't doubt their ability to get more out of the out-of-favor players they acquire, but it'll be hard for the return on Donaldson here to match all the value they gave up.

 

here it is

[jaysblue]

Thanks, found it on Page 21 in this thread.

[SAAviour]

@Wilnerness590: JD: Alex told me he liked my power, K:BB rate, durability. I told him my 6th tool is that my teams have won since I was 5 yrs. old.

 

Haha nice!

[S33n]

https://twitter.com/blawrie13/status/538721948449406976

[King]

Lawrie really loved playing for this team. I bet a few tears were shed last night.

[fatcowxlive]

please trade Reyes for a bag of balls

 

And who do you want to play shortstop instead from our great depth at that position?

[HERPDERP]

I hope the pressure doesn't get to him. People in Oakland are gonna expect great things from him, and I just don't see him replicating Donaldson.

[IBTrini]

Bareto must be what got them excited and Lawrie can at least give them a passable player with a couple depth arms for good measure. Still a terrible trade for the A's but Beane must have some sort of plan here.

Beane found out first-hand how a top-notch "despairer" can play tricks with your mind. No, he is untouchable... I said no... which part of no didn't you understand?... It's you again??? Ok, make me a good offer... Really??? you got to do better than that... Awwwww crats Alex!!! Look, just take him and promise to stop calling me for goodness sakes!!!

[burlingtonbandit]

Anyone wonder what the As could have gotten if they made Donaldson available to other teams? I feel like the Red Sox could and would have traded a much better package. Something like Betts, Vasquez, Barnes, JBJ and a throw in like Middlebrooks seems way better than the Blue Jays offer.

 

Edit: This would obviously be before they signed Sandoval.

[S33n]

Lawrie really loved playing for this team. I bet a few tears were shed last night.

 

He never reached his potential with us, but I'll be rootin' for him. I like the way he approached the game, even though it wasn't the "smart way". I was at the Canada day game where he ran over the Angels catcher, I haven't seen the skydome so pumped up in years... His grand slam (the freakout), the helmet throw, lots of good memories.

[saskjayfan]

Lawrie really loved playing for this team. I bet a few tears were shed last night.

 

I wish no ill will for Brett. I hope in two years, he is right there with Donaldson. It's hard to argue 4 years of control vs 3 especially with the injury issues Brett has had. I hope he can stay healthy and become the player I thought he would be.

[S33n]

And who do you want to play shortstop instead from our great depth at that position?

 

If we moved Reyes to another position or traded him, a shortstop would have to be acquired - easier said than done, I know. Personally I'd prefer an awesome defensive shortstop with a slightly below average bat over a terrible defensive shortstop that has been nothing more than a league average (edit* slightly above league average) hitter with this club, I think our offence would be fine without him.

 

Shedding the $ on his contract would go a long way towards acquiring a front line starter that we need.

Edited November 29, 2014 by S33n