Jay Bruce

[Jimcanuck]

How do you feel about Sanchez minor league numbers last year as a starter?

 

Did Yan Gomes look like a MLB all star catcher in the minor leagues? Minor league numbers can be misleading. Some guys have great minor league numbers and cant stick in MLB, others have mediocre or crappy numbers and become good MLB players.

 

I wouldn't base decisions on minor league numbers, especially with an elite arm.

[Jimcanuck]

They said he came back too soon from an injury as well. If he was offered straight up for Sanchez, I jump all over that every day of the week. I think it would cost much more though.

 

What?!? Cincy will jump at Sanchez

[wamco]

Bruce has always been a good player, but he was trash in every facet of the game last year. Im usually high on buy-low candidates in situations like that, but at his price tag, there's no room for error there. It's not a guy going through arb like Escobar and Rasmus were, he costs $12.5M, too much for a reclamation project. And I think it's crazy to offer Sanchez for him. Not because I have any great attachment to Sanchez, but I feel like if you're going to deal him, you can probably get something better than a guy coming off a -1 win season with a price tag that high.

 

Besides, factoring in the payroll differences between Sanchez and Bruce, I wouldn't be surprised if Sanchez is more valuable than Bruce next year, even out of the pen.

 

How is 12.5 a high price tag? We just paid 16 for a catcher in this 30's. Stanton just got 25p year for next 13 years and he ain't twice the player as Bruce.

[Jimcanuck]

How is 12.5 a high price tag? We just paid 16 for a catcher in this 30's. Stanton just got 25p year for next 13 years and he ain't twice the player as Bruce.

 

Martin >>> Bruce

 

Stanton deal is just stupid and should not be used as a benchmark

[wamco]

LaRoche is 35 and has less career fWAR than 27 year old Bruce.

 

Laroche would have been a good get at 2/25

[saskjayfan]

How do you feel about Sanchez minor league numbers last year as a starter?

 

Sanchez has brutal minor league numbers. We should trade him for the philly phanatic if the phills will go for it. We could use a good mascot.

[wamco]

Both are NL RF in their prime years. The Stanton deal will be fine, especially if he opts out after 6 years, then it is a steal. The Martin deal is going to be brutal the last 2 years.

[TwistedLogic]

Sanchez has brutal minor league numbers. We should trade him for the philly phanatic if the phills will go for it. We could use a good mascot.

 

I wouldn't be opposed to this.

[saskjayfan]

I wouldn't be opposed to this.

 

Sanchez throws the ball high 90s with incredible movement. He doesn't give up a lot of hits or home runs. These guys are really a dime a dozen...nothing to see here.

[Nox]

ITT:

 

1) People casually assuming that Sanchez is a 97-98 mph starter bc he was a 97-98 mph reliever last year.

 

2) People not understanding that a 97-98 MPH reliever with fancy numbers over a 30 inning stretch is nothing to get excited about. Velo like this is far more common than it used to be.

 

3) People casually dismissing the fact Sanchez was a borderline failed starter in the MiLB so far.

 

4) Casual Randy Johnson comps. As pointed out, this is about as intellectually lazy as you can possibly get. Let this be abundantly clear: Aaron Sanchez is will turn out to be Tommy Hunter many thousands of times before he turns into Randy Johnson.

 

5) A Casual Mike Trout trade proposal

[Nox]

Stanton deal is just stupid and should not be used as a benchmark

 

Not really, Jim.

[saskjayfan]

ITT:

 

1) People casually assuming that Sanchez is a 97-98 mph starter bc he was a 97-98 mph reliever last year.

 

2) People not understanding that a 97-98 MPH reliever with fancy numbers over a 30 inning stretch is nothing to get excited about. Velo like this is far more common than it used to be.

 

3) People casually dismissing the fact Sanchez was a borderline failed starter in the MiLB so far.

 

4) Casual Randy Johnson comps. As pointed out, this is about as intellectually lazy as you can possibly get. Let this be abundantly clear: Aaron Sanchez is will turn out to be Tommy Hunter many thousands of times before he turns into Randy Johnson.

 

5) A Casual Mike Trout trade proposal

 

Casual detractor assuming it's the 97-98 mile an hour that has people excited. It's the movement you twit. Everyone knows his velocity as a starter won't sit at the same level it did as a reliever. He will have the ability to reach back for a little bit more when he needs it though.

 

Casual detractor only capable of looking at stats without the knowledge of what player was working on and what changes he made throughout the time he was 17 to 21. His body physically was still maturing in his time in the minors as were his mental abilities.

 

I wasn't mentally mature when I was 18 or 19. Why would a kid who plays baseball be?

[saskjayfan]

Gomes wRC+:

AAA 140

AA 111

A+ 128

A- 137

 

Sanchez's minor numbers are far shittier save for GB%.

 

and how old was Gomes when he was in the minors?

[Nox]

Casual detractor only capable of looking at stats without the knowledge of what player was working on and what changes he made throughout the time he was 17 to 21. His body physically was still maturing in his time in the minors as were his mental abilities.

 

You have literally no idea here either. Only one of us is adding hypothetical information and then drawing homerific conclusions from it.

 

The results as a starter have been that of a back-end guy (at best). Add to that the numerous concerns regarding his delivery and the package is not that exciting. The arm talent is obviously apparent but there's far more that goes into an asset's value than that.

[Atothe]

Yan!

[saskjayfan]

You have literally no idea here either. Only one of us is adding hypothetical information and then drawing homerific conclusions from it.

 

The results as a starter have been that of a back-end guy (at best). Add to that the numerous concerns regarding his delivery and the package is not that exciting. The arm talent is obviously apparent but there's far more that goes into a valuable asset than that.

 

I have a different opinion than you, it's a free world. No where am I saying he will definitely turn out to be great. You seem to be indicating he definitely won't be a good starter. What don't you like about his delivery? What hypothetical information an I adding? Jay Bruce has 3 years of control at 12.5 coming off a bad year. He's not a great defender. There's not a ton of value in his contract. Go out and sign Aoki or resign Melky and keep an asset that is controllable and cheap and has an extremely high ceiling despite having a lot of risk associated with it. Trading Sanchez for Bruce is terrible asset management.

[Nox]

and how old was Gomes when he was in the minors?

 

What point are you trying to make?

 

Sanchez's age/level adjust minor league numbers are not good. Gomes' were pretty ok.

 

If you want to make some laughably off-base, home-brew, scouting-based argument regarding Sanchez's future - fine. But don't even try to defend the statistical profile.

[saskjayfan]

What point are you trying to make?

 

Sanchez's age/level adjust minor league numbers are not good. Gomes' were pretty ok.

 

If you want to make some laughably off-base, home-brew, scouting-based argument regarding Sanchez's future - fine. But don't even try to defend the statistical profile.

 

I'm saying the numbers a guy puts up from age 21 to 24 are different than numbers a guy puts up from age 17 to 21. You're not physically mature at 17. You're not mentally mature at 17. The rate at which individuals mature both physically and mentally vary from person to person. These are all facts.

[Nox]

I have a different opinion than you, it's a free world. No where am I saying he will definitely turn out to be great. You seem to be indicating he definitely won't be a good starter. What don't you like about his delivery? Jay Bruce has 3 years of control at 12.5 coming off a bad year. He's not a great defender. There's not a ton of value in his contract. Go out and sign Aoki or resign Melky and keep an asset that is controllable and cheap and has an extremely high ceiling despite having a lot of risk associated with it. Trading Sanchez for Bruce is terrible asset management.

 

I don't know "definitely" that he won't be a good starter. I'm saying that any rational probability distribution we could construct regarding his future outcomes would have that as a low probability event.

 

His delivery - It's all arm, the stride is short/inconsistent which leads to an inconsistent arm slot. I'm not a scout (would never want to be one) and that's not central to my argument.

 

As stated, I'm not in love of the idea of trading him for Bruce. Bruce doesn't project to be that good going forward. A 1.4 win corner outfielder is pretty meh even if we think his upside is higher.

 

I do think trading Sanchez for something else (better) is the way to go. I very much doubt that will happen however.

[Nox]

I'm saying the numbers a guy puts up from age 21 to 24 are different than numbers a guy puts up from age 17 to 21. You're not physically mature at 17. You're not mentally mature at 17. The rate at which individuals mature both physically and mentally vary from person to person. These are all facts.

 

Well there's also the part where physical maturity (as in peak physical skills) are different for position players and pitchers. Sanchez's velo will likely (naturally) decline a modicum each year from here on. So, in terms of physical maturity, those are equivalents.

 

Mental maturity, sure. The vast majority of 17 year olds don't know s*** about s***.

 

But, all of that is rolled up when you age-adjust minor league numbers (a foundational component of any projection system). With these things considered, Sanchez's minor league numbers are worse than Gomes'.

[saskjayfan]

I don't know "definitely" that he won't be a good starter. I'm saying that any rational probability distribution we could construct regarding his future outcomes would have that as a low probability event.

 

His delivery - It's all arm, the stride is short/inconsistent which leads to an inconsistent arm slot. I'm not a scout (would never want to be one) and that's not central to my argument.

 

As stated, I'm not in love of the idea of trading him for Bruce. Bruce doesn't project to be that good going forward. A 1.4 win corner outfielder is pretty meh even if we think his upside is higher.

 

I do think trading Sanchez for something else (better) is the way to go. I very much doubt that will happen however.

 

The Jays coaches shortened his stride length. Why would they do this if it was to his detriment? Maddux had a very short stride length and his control if memory serves correct was not too shabby.

 

My argument is that pitching is all about muscle memory. Baseball is a mental grind. At a young age you are not mentally mature. In the minors you are constantly making adjustments to build a foundation that will work for the long term and results are not always immediate when you go through this process. Finally, why on earth would you give up on a guy when in his first opportunity in the big leagues he pitched as well as he did. I'm pretty sure that the Jays share my opinion that based on what Sanchez did in the big leagues last year that they are going to hold on to him and see how this thing plays out for him.

 

As far as Yan goes, you are hypothetically assuming his minor league numbers would have been just as good when he was 18 as when he was 22. I'm not so convinced about that. Trading gomes was a mistake, and I don't want to trade away another talented young player and make another mistake.

[L54]

The Jays coaches shortened his stride length. Why would they do this if it was to his detriment? Maddux had a very short stride length and his control if memory serves correct was not too shabby.

 

My argument is that pitching is all about muscle memory. Baseball is a mental grind. At a young age you are not mentally mature. In the minors you are constantly making adjustments to build a foundation that will work for the long term and results are not always immediate when you go through this process. Finally, why on earth would you give up on a guy when in his first opportunity in the big leagues he pitched as well as he did. I'm pretty sure that the Jays share my opinion that based on what Sanchez did in the big leagues last year that they are going to hold on to him and see how this thing plays out for him.

 

As far as Yan goes, you are hypothetically assuming his minor league numbers would have been just as good when he was 18 as when he was 22. I'm not so convinced about that. Trading gomes was a mistake, and I don't want to trade away another talented young player and make another mistake.

 

You can't just take every player's fault, then find a similar comp and project them to have the same success.

 

Maddux, Johnson, whoever else

 

Nobody here is denying the upside Sanchez has. It's just the odds of him reaching it are much, much slimmer than others (see walk rate, ability to throw strikes, short stride length leading to future injuries).

 

Prospects can be looked at as currency. Right now, Mr. Sanchez's value is probably pretty high.

[Daniel Labude]

You can't just take every player's fault, then find a similar comp and project them to have the same success.

 

Maddux, Johnson, whoever else

 

Nobody here is denying the upside Sanchez has. It's just the odds of him reaching it are much, much slimmer than others (see walk rate, ability to throw strikes, short stride length leading to future injuries).

 

Prospects can be looked at as currency. Right now, Mr. Sanchez's value is probably pretty high.

 

Walk rate and throwing strikes were an asset in the majors....maybe Sanchez is just one of those players that focuses more once in the majors and in turn is way better than in the minors. Sanchez will be a stud starting pitcher in a few years.

[wamco]

I cannot ignore Bruce's career trajectory prior to this past season and write him off as he is going to suck for the rest of his career going into his age 28 season. If he was a jay for the same time period, with the same stats, we'd all be saying he would bounce back this season and we wouldn't consider trading him and his team friendly contract for an elite arm that dominated in the bullpen over 30ip last season but had underwhelming minor league numbers as a starter including a near 5 bb/9 walk rate.

 

We'd say, It's gonna take more than that to get Bruce.

[Key22]

Did Yan Gomes look like a MLB all star catcher in the minor leagues? Minor league numbers can be misleading. Some guys have great minor league numbers and cant stick in MLB, others have mediocre or crappy numbers and become good MLB players.

 

I wouldn't base decisions on minor league numbers, especially with an elite arm.

 

And before the minors - Albert Pujols drafted in the 13th round - every team passed on him 12 times including St. Louis.

 

I go by what I actually saw - Sanchez looked to have the best stuff (along with Stroman) that this club has seen in while. I remember lots of people wanting to dump Stroman too for all sorts of reasons from delivery to height to lack of pitches.

 

Another poster talked about asset management - totally agree - if you can buy a $12 million free agent that costs no draft pick or prospects why on earth would you TRADE arguably your best pitching prospect for a guy who puts up the SAME numbers and also costs $12 million but who came off a dreadful year? The other team wanting to get rid of him and who see the player every single day are hardly banking on the upside now are they?

 

If other teams see Sanchez the way some fans (arm-chair GMs) see him then they won;t be giving us anything of worth in return - if he is a disaster with control with a bad delivery who will always get hurt then what exactly are we going to get for him? Nada.

 

So we may as well keep him and hope he's a stud or hope his value rises to get something valuable in return.

[KingKat]

And before the minors - Albert Pujols drafted in the 13th round - every team passed on him 12 times including St. Louis.

 

I go by what I actually saw - Sanchez looked to have the best stuff (along with Stroman) that this club has seen in while. I remember lots of people wanting to dump Stroman too for all sorts of reasons from delivery to height to lack of pitches.

 

Another poster talked about asset management - totally agree - if you can buy a $12 million free agent that costs no draft pick or prospects why on earth would you TRADE arguably your best pitching prospect for a guy who puts up the SAME numbers and also costs $12 million but who came off a dreadful year? The other team wanting to get rid of him and who see the player every single day are hardly banking on the upside now are they?

 

If other teams see Sanchez the way some fans (arm-chair GMs) see him then they won;t be giving us anything of worth in return - if he is a disaster with control with a bad delivery who will always get hurt then what exactly are we going to get for him? Nada.

 

So we may as well keep him and hope he's a stud or hope his value rises to get something valuable in return.

 

If Sanchez cuts it as a closer instead of a starter, that's not the end of the world. You won't necessarily get something better then that in a trade.

[wamco]

And before the minors - Albert Pujols drafted in the 13th round - every team passed on him 12 times including St. Louis.

 

I go by what I actually saw - Sanchez looked to have the best stuff (along with Stroman) that this club has seen in while. I remember lots of people wanting to dump Stroman too for all sorts of reasons from delivery to height to lack of pitches.

 

Another poster talked about asset management - totally agree - if you can buy a $12 million free agent that costs no draft pick or prospects why on earth would you TRADE arguably your best pitching prospect for a guy who puts up the SAME numbers and also costs $12 million but who came off a dreadful year? The other team wanting to get rid of him and who see the player every single day are hardly banking on the upside now are they?

 

If other teams see Sanchez the way some fans (arm-chair GMs) see him then they won;t be giving us anything of worth in return - if he is a disaster with control with a bad delivery who will always get hurt then what exactly are we going to get for him? Nada.

 

So we may as well keep him and hope he's a stud or hope his value rises to get something valuable in return.

 

 

Certainly it is has been frustrating to see AA favoring trades over FA signings for the reasons you outlined above. Hence why I thought when LaRoche was offered 2/20 we should have gone up to 2/25 and grabbed him.

[Laika]

Pro for Sanchez:

 

Not obvious on his Baseball Reference minor league page, where one would focus mostly on his K and BB rates, are his extreme groundball tendencies.

 

Sanchez had a freaky 65.7% GB rate in AA last year, leading all starting pitchers I believe. He translated this to the big leagues in his 33 relief innings.

 

The people who think Sanchez can start could point to someone like Justin Masterson, who has been a pretty solid SP throwing mostly just a hard moving FB and a breaking ball. Extreme GB dude that has struggled with walks and been an erratic K rate guy.

 

Trading the first 6 years of Justin Masterson's career for Jay Bruce would be very, very stupid.

[Stangstag]

Certainly it is has been frustrating to see AA favoring trades over FA signings for the reasons you outlined above. Hence why I thought when LaRoche was offered 2/20 we should have gone up to 2/25 and grabbed him.

 

Why? We don't really have a need at 1B/DH. We really need a 2B and LF

[TBJ12]

I'd be ok with AA moving Sanchez but not for Bruce and that contract.