We're not out of this

[saskjayfan]

Because what you would characterize as my "pessimism" is far more often than not, reflective of eventual reality. Thus, it would be more aptly characterized as being a realist, not a pessimist.

 

And, regardless, even if I were a pessimist, that doesn't necessitate a "you want them to lose" determination. That's a completely different matter.

 

I said you don't want them to win to overstate the point that you never post anything positive about the Jays. I've never heard a pessimist say he was a realist....lol. I get it. You're the smartest man in the room. Tell me oh wise one. Where will the Jays finish. 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th in the division.

[shortstop]

yeah, take the (likely) unnecessary colour away from Moog's posts, my impression is Moog is objective ie. a realist...

 

take the colour away & imo, Moog's assessemnt of the O's and Jays are closer to reality...

 

it's closer to the truth imo when I say we're naturally biased towards the jays...we may realize it or very often we don't...or we realize it & remain objective most of the time but not all the time...

 

I sense dispassion with moog's, not that he's a pessimist or not a fan of the jays or whatever...dispassionate in the sense of loving baseball but able to look at the environment/landscape not as a fan of any team (even if he is) but as a natural observer...

 

if moog's could get away from the irrelevant colour, people may see more of what Moog's really has to offer...

[jaysfan2014]

BTW, here are the xFIPs of Baltimore's starters for your consideration:

 

Chris Tillman 4.79 vs 4.11 ERA (likely to regress further)

Wei Yen Chen 3.81 vs. 4.15 ERA (will improve)

Jimenez 4.42 vs. 4.52 ERA (on DL)

Bud Norris 4.48 vs. 3.96 ERA (also likely to regress)

Miguel Gonzalez 4.60 vs 4.04 ERA (regression candidate)

Kevin Gausman 4.34 vs 3.29 ERA (great young prospect, but likely will see some regression in the 2nd half.

 

FYI, Britton and O'Day are excellent to above average on xFIP, and should continue to perform in the 2nd half.

 

Basically, Baltimore will have to hope for no slumps by Adam Jones, Nelson Cruz, and a rebound from Chris Davis if they're going to stay in the race vs. the Jays and Yankees.

 

And here's the Jays BTW:

 

Buehrle 4.30 vs. 2.64 ERA (although regression is already occurring, as shown in recent starts)

Hutchison 4.04 vs. 4.16 ERA (about expected. Should likely stay around a 3.75-4.50 ERA)

Dickey 4.28 vs. 3.82 ERA (below average, but not horrible)

Stroman 3.51 vs. 4.05 ERA (including relief. Best pitcher on the Jays.)

JA Happ 4.32 vs. 4.91 ERA (we need an upgrade at 5th starter.)

 

Based on the numbers, the O's are playing well over their talent level. I expect them to get crushed vs. the AL West, as it already happened to us recently, during our trip to Oakland and LA.

[Nox]

BTW, here are the xFIPs of Baltimore's starters for your consideration:

 

Chris Tillman 4.79 vs 4.11 ERA (likely to regress further)

Wei Yen Chen 3.81 vs. 4.15 ERA (will improve)

Jimenez 4.42 vs. 4.52 ERA (on DL)

Bud Norris 4.48 vs. 3.96 ERA (also likely to regress)

Miguel Gonzalez 4.60 vs 4.04 ERA (regression candidate)

Kevin Gausman 4.34 vs 3.29 ERA (great young prospect, but likely will see some regression in the 2nd half.

 

FYI, Britton and O'Day are excellent to above average on xFIP, and should continue to perform in the 2nd half.

 

Basically, Baltimore will have to hope for no slumps by Adam Jones, Nelson Cruz, and a rebound from Chris Davis if they're going to stay in the race vs. the Jays and Yankees.

 

And here's the Jays BTW:

 

Buehrle 4.30 vs. 2.64 ERA (although regression is already occurring, as shown in recent starts)

Hutchison 4.04 vs. 4.16 ERA (about expected. Should likely stay around a 3.75-4.50 ERA)

Dickey 4.28 vs. 3.82 ERA (below average, but not horrible)

Stroman 3.51 vs. 4.05 ERA (including relief. Best pitcher on the Jays.)

JA Happ 4.32 vs. 4.91 ERA (we need an upgrade at 5th starter.)

 

Based on the numbers, the O's are playing well over their talent level. I expect them to get crushed vs. the AL West, as it already happened to us recently, during our trip to Oakland and LA.

 

~80 innings of past xFIP do not make for good projections. Quit positing as such.

[jaysfan2014]

Schedule strength for the 2nd half for contenders:

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/24625465/looking-ahead-at-schedule-strength-for-baseballs-second-half

 

21 games vs +.500 teams, 10 .500 teams (all Yankees..) and a East leading 35 games of teams below .500. At least we don't have a really hard sked like the Mariners..

[o2cui2i]

I'm not really worried about the pitching, it's the offense that I'm concerned about and I don't see where they will get the runs with Ed and Lawrie out. We can carry one or two bad offensive guys but the bottom half is just sad for the next 3-4 weeks.

[jaysfan2014]

~80 innings of past xFIP do not make for good projections. Quit positing as such.

 

All the xFIP info is courtesy of Fangraphs. And regarding Gausman, his FIP is 3.56. Still, how he does down the stretch is another question due to his innings limits.

[jaysfan2014]

I'm not really worried about the pitching, it's the offense that I'm concerned about and I don't see where they will get the runs with Ed and Lawrie out. We can carry one or two bad offensive guys but the bottom half is just sad for the next 3-4 weeks.

 

Completely understand the offensive woes. I imagine AA is already on the phones trying to add a bat.

[o2cui2i]

Completely understand the offensive woes. I imagine AA is already on the phones trying to add a bat.

 

He added Reimold who is broken again. SURPRISE.... Not

 

He needs to dig deeper and I'm talking about Rogers pockets, not the recycling ♻ dumpsters

[GD]

All the xFIP info is courtesy of Fangraphs. And regarding Gausman, his FIP is 3.56. Still, how he does down the stretch is another question due to his innings limits.

 

How is this in any way relevant to what Nox said? Christ.

[jaysfan2014]

He added Reimold who is broken again. SURPRISE.... Not

 

He needs to dig deeper and I'm talking about Rogers pockets, not the recycling ♻ dumpsters

 

Prado or Hill would be nice..

[bzapple]

How is this in any way relevant to what Nox said? Christ.

 

"Yes but remember that Jimenez has been an awful signing so far and he's guaranteed three more years. He could easily regress further."

[jaysfan2014]

"Yes but remember that Jimenez has been an awful signing so far and he's guaranteed three more years. He could easily regress further."

 

With that herky-jerky delivery, declining velocity and walk issues, it wouldn't be surprising. Baltimore does not evaluate free agent pitchers well..

[closetjaysfan]

If we can survive august without falling more than 4 spots back in the East we have a shot at making the playoffs (though probably as a wildcard).

[jaysfan2014]

If we're viewing xFIP as static going forward, and expecting ERA to regress to it, the A's starters are going to have to post a collective 4.50 ERA the rest of the year. O's are catching them at the right time I guess. Fireworks are acomin' in Oaktown! #statabuse.

 

Is this a joke? Oakland starters(except Milone) rank well above average in xFIP, including Shark and Hammel. They're set up to be a top team again in the 2nd half with their pitching and offense.

[jaysfan2014]

If we're viewing xFIP as static going forward, and expecting ERA to regress to it, the A's starters are going to have to post a collective 4.50 ERA the rest of the year. O's are catching them at the right time I guess. Fireworks are acomin' in Oaktown! #statabuse.

 

xFIP is considered the best evaluation of pitcher's future performance. Oakland's starters, including Shark and Hammel, rank well above average. And based on this, Baltimore is likely to see regression from their starters, which could put significant pressure on their taxed bullpen (#5 in MLB in usage, and worse than Tampa in IP/game.)

[jaysfan2014]

No, it's not a joke. It's a statistical fact (except that I used Milone instead of Hammel for my calc, because I'm lazy ... though I did use Shark - but only his small AL sample, weighted appropriately, though ... so I'm only half lazy). It came out to EXACTLY 4.50 ERA (4.498) going forward (over 65 games, rather than the actual 67, for simplicity in calc) in order to get the collective weighted ERAs (by GS - again, for simplicity) to match their current xFIP.

 

Does this include the bullpen?

[jayswin11]

Soriano would be a nice addition, hope he decides to sign.

 

I do have a feeling that these moves of Mills and Sanchez have meaning. Wondering if someone has been inquiring about our RP's and were preparing to replace them???

[jaysfan2014]

Well, let's try another metric: SIERA (Skill Interactive ERA)

 

ORIOLES

Tillman 4.88 (4.19 ERA), below average and likely to regress further

Chen 3.89 (4.15 ERA), average to above average, best pitcher the O's have

Jimenez 4.66 (4.52 ERA), bad pitcher

Gonzalez 4.35, below average

Norris 4.39, below average

Gausman 4.45, below average (but small sample size of less than 80 IP.)

 

Outside of Chen, these numbers spell trouble for Baltimore when they face tougher competition such as the A's and Angels.

 

To be fair, here's the Jays:

 

Buehrle 4.51 SIERA

Dickey 4.23 SIERA

Stroman 3.44 SIERA

Hutchison 3.92 SIERA

Happ 4.32 SIERA

 

Sure, our offense is struggling.. but it's not the pitching's fault we've struggled, unlike last season. GET SOME BATS, AA!

 

And regarding those A's:

 

Kazmir 3.28 SIERA

Gray 3.61 SIERA

Chavez 3.61 SIERA

Shark 3.16 SIERA

Hammel 3.28 SIERA

 

5 above average pitchers.

[jaysfan2014]

Lol @ Buehrle. Regression coming much?

 

I hope SIERA is park adjusted, otherwise I'd say any pitcher who pitches in A's ballpark is going to do well.

 

Already happening, albeit some of the losses are due to bullpen implosions and/or lack of run support. However, decent enough defense has mitigated his regression.

[jaysfan2014]

Lol @ Buehrle. Regression coming much?

 

I hope SIERA is park adjusted, otherwise I'd say any pitcher who pitches in A's ballpark is going to do well.

 

Yes, it is park-adjusted. A description of SIERA is on FanGraphs:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/siera/

[jaysfan2014]

OK, here's the pitching matchups for the Rangers series:

 

Darvish (2.96 SIERA) vs. Dickey (4.23 SIERA) adv. Rangers

Lewis (4.15 SIERA) vs Stroman (3.44 SIERA) adv. Jays

Tepesch (4.79 SIERA) vs. Buehrle (4.51 SIERA) adv. Jays

 

Of course, considering how gutted the Rangers lineup is, a sweep of the Rangers is very possible. 2 of 3 at minimum.

[jayswin11]

OK, here's the pitching matchups for the Rangers series:

 

Darvish (2.96 SIERA) vs. Dickey (4.23 SIERA) adv. Rangers

Lewis (4.15 SIERA) vs Stroman (3.44 SIERA) adv. Jays

Tepesch (4.79 SIERA) vs. Buehrle (4.51 SIERA) adv. Jays

 

Of course, considering how gutted the Rangers lineup is, a sweep of the Rangers is very possible. 2 of 3 at minimum.

 

We better be able to take 2 out of 3. of course our lineup is gutted too.

[jaysfan2014]

LINEUP:

 

Blue Jays-Official ‏@BlueJays 2m

 

Tonight's @BlueJays lineup:

Reyes-SS

Cabrera-LF

Bautista-RF

Navarro-DH

Johnson-1B

Rasmus-CF

Francisco-3B

Thole-C

Kawasaki-2B

 

Dickey-P

 

No word on the move re: Mills.

[Nox]

2 of 3 at minimum.

 

I think you're quite confused on the definition of the word "minimum".

[jayswin11]

I know I started this thread, but now that it has come out that we won't take on additional $$$. WE ARE OUT OF THIS.

[CJ-Freeway]

I know I started this thread, but now that it has come out that we won't take on additional $$$. WE ARE OUT OF THIS.

 

Man, f*** Rogers. Our team looks like a f***ing joke because of this now

[JaysAllMighty]

92 and 93. We shall remember.

 

Just glad I witnessed it. Will never happened again.

[jayswin11]

I find it comical that it took people this long to realize the season is over.

 

False hope I guess.

[jayswin11]

92 and 93. We shall remember.

 

Just glad I witnessed it. Will never happened again.

 

agreed. Guess I'll stop watching and look forward to NFL season.