We're not out of this

[shortstop]

helps to be playing a hurt/bad rangers team though Darvish is on the mound Friday.

 

Over the years, this team hasn't shown the propensity to win when it counts. I hope I'm wrong but I can see the jays, even with what many consider a favourable schedule, falter to 6-7 games behind the O's and 4-5 games out of the wildcard by the trade deadline...

[saskjayfan]

The O's start a 10 game road trip facing the A's 3 times, the angels 3 and the mariners 4 followed at home by the angels 3 and the mariners 3.

 

That is a tough schedule. The Jays have an easy schedule and when the o's and mariners play 7 times they jays will have the opportunity to make ground every night on one playoff spot.

 

The problem, the jays are killed by injuries. If EE Lind and lawrie were in the lineup we could make up some serious ground. We need the pitching to come through and for Colby and Jose who were cool the last little bit to get hot.

[sh3156]

helps to be playing a hurt/bad rangers team though Darvish is on the mound Friday.

 

Over the years, this team hasn't shown the propensity to win when it counts. I hope I'm wrong but I can see the jays, even with what many consider a favourable schedule, falter to 6-7 games behind the O's and 4-5 games out of the wildcard by the trade deadline...

 

Strong hedging of emotion with the I hope I am wrong qualifier lmao

 

So now if your right you are happy that you were right and if your wrong you are happy that the jays win

 

Nice strategy doesn't work in practice. You will fail lousy if the jays loss no matter what. But whatever floats your boat

[G-Snarls]

[sh3156]

 

G-Snarls, Havent your read posters on here like Bourjos and shortstop

 

difficulty of schedule is not an actual thing. its not a factor when predicting the performance of a club. In other words whether the Jays face the Rangers or Angels, they are virtually facing the same team

 

*shakes head

[guylaroche5]

 

the playoffs will be exceptionally easy to make

[jaysfan2014]

Finally some good news!

 

Too bad the Yankees can't take advantage with Tanaka, Sabathia and others injured.

As for the Blue Jays, we need to get healthy, pitch decently start scoring, and MAKE A FRIGGING TRADE FOR A BAT AND/OR AN ARM!!! Wake up AA! On the other hand, we have a good choice because the O's have one of the most difficult schedules after the break which could make or break their season (more likely to break.. they're against the A's, Angels and Mariners non stop until early-mid August.)

 

Similar story for the Royals.. except their only hope is that the Mariners fade. Detroit's not going to go away.

[GD]

Too bad the

 

Any time I see a raysjays post start like this I just stop reading.

[NorthOf49]

Too bad the Yankees can't take advantage with Tanaka, Sabathia and others injured.

As for the Blue Jays, we need to get healthy, pitch decently start scoring, and MAKE A FRIGGING TRADE FOR A BAT AND/OR AN ARM!!! Wake up AA!

Don't think I've ever seen you get so animated lol. We have a unique opportunity here.

[jaysfan2014]

Don't think I've ever seen you get so animated lol. We have a unique opportunity here.

 

If AA wants to make some goodwill for the fans, he should make a blockbuster trade for a 2B/3B and/or a CF who doesn't strike out a ton and can hit lefties.. Rasmus is trash now. We could also use another starter, and maybe another bullpen arm.

 

But he should be careful not to gut the farm.. look how the Angels are struggling to put together a trade package for Kennedy and Street from the Padres, who have told the Angels "Forget it!" because their farm has been gutted by signing big name free agents and making trades to try to win back in 2012 and 2013.

 

And regarding the Yankees.. their record minus Tanaka is 35-43 (including bullpen wins/losses on Tanaka's starts.) Without Tanaka, the Rays and Red Sox would be ahead of the Yankees.

[GD]

Blockbuster trade but don't gut the farm. Thanks Raysjays.

[jaysfan2014]

 

On the opposite end, the Jays have even more of a chance:

 

Beyond the Box Score ‏@BtBScore

 

AL teams that have the hardest remaining schedules based off opponents’ winning %:

1. Mariners

2. Twins

3. Rangers

4. Orioles

5. Angels

 

Still got a shot at the division and wild card. Mariners get a fair share of Oakland, L.A, Baltimore and Detroit, and us(likely with everyone back by then).

[jaysfan2014]

Blockbuster trade but don't gut the farm. Thanks Raysjays.

 

We can't afford a repeat of the Josh Johnson and RA Dickey trades.

[GD]

We can't afford a repeat of the Josh Johnson and RA Dickey trades.

 

So what mystical blockbuster, talent infusing trade that doesn't kill the farm do you propose, raysjays?

[Nox]

So what mystical blockbuster, talent infusing trade that doesn't kill the farm do you propose, raysjays?

 

I won't settle for anything less than Trout for Rasmus+.

 

Upgrade our O, improve the lineup against lefties and keep the farm intact.

[GD]

I won't settle for anything less than Trout for Rasmus+.

 

Upgrade our O, improve the lineup against lefties and keep the farm intact.

 

The + probably shouldn't be much more than Kevin Pillar or A.J. Jimenez.

[Nox]

The + probably shouldn't be much more than Kevin Pillar or A.J. Jimenez.

 

 

I was thinking Crouse but I could be probably talked into Pillar after a beer or two.

[saskjayfan]

It's a thing. It's just not as big a thing as the desperate folks are making it out to be. Good teams lose to bad teams, and bad teams beat good teams. It might give a slight edge over a large enough sample ... but more important is the intrinsic talent of the team trying to make waves. And the Jays come up short there. Not only that, but teams perform differently at different times. Bad teams get on hot streaks. Teams that are performing poorly, may actually be a lot better than their record and start performing that way. Sometimes you catch the Tigers when they're scuffling and you can sweep them. Sometimes you catch the Stros on a "hot streak" and they take 2 of 3 from you.

 

Maybe someone with some free time, and access to the necessary data, could do some crunching of numbers and take a look at previous seasons for all teams, at the Break. Who had the hardest and easiest paths, as indicated at the time of the Break, the rest of the way ... and how did they end up performing, relative to their existing W/L record, at the Break. See what the correlation is between opponent strength post-Break and pre/post Break record the rest of the way (could also factor in pre-Break SOS in existing Break W/L record).

 

when you talk 3 game series, anything can happen, but when you start talking 17 games against quality teams vs 17 games against weaker teams it's a meaningful difference. The Jays next 17 see them play boston 7 times, Huston 4 times, the Yankees 3 times and the rangers 3 times. The Orioles square off against the angels 6 times, the mariners 7 times the A's 3 times and the Nationals one time.

 

The 7 games against the mariners are meaningful because those are the 2 teams currently ahead of us in playoff positions so we have the opportunity to gain ground on someone every night.

 

Then the Jays face the Orioles in a meaningful 3 game series. By that time, we should have Lawrie, EE and Lind back. There's a good chance they will all come back at various points over the next 17 games...EE probably due back the latest of the 3.

 

We're treading water with the lineup we have and won't be able to take advantage of the weak schedule as much as we otherwise would have, but if we can go 10 and 7 we will be in good shape heading into the series against he orioles.

[G-Snarls]

The + probably shouldn't be much more than Kevin Pillar or A.J. Jimenez.

 

Don't be ridiculous. We'd have to throw in an optionless reliever too.

[G-Snarls]

We can't afford a repeat of the Josh Johnson and RA Dickey trades.

 

Josh who?!?!

[jaysfan2014]

Josh who?!?!

 

Ok, just the RA Dickey trade. At least the other one got us Reyes and Buehrle(who just went to the All-Star game)/

[sh3156]

It's a thing. It's just not as big a thing as the desperate folks are making it out to be. Good teams lose to bad teams, and bad teams beat good teams. It might give a slight edge over a large enough sample ... but more important is the intrinsic talent of the team trying to make waves. And the Jays come up short there. Not only that, but teams perform differently at different times. Bad teams get on hot streaks. Teams that are performing poorly, may actually be a lot better than their record and start performing that way. Sometimes you catch the Tigers when they're scuffling and you can sweep them. Sometimes you catch the Stros on a "hot streak" and they take 2 of 3 from you.

 

Maybe someone with some free time, and access to the necessary data, could do some crunching of numbers and take a look at previous seasons for all teams, at the Break. Who had the hardest and easiest paths, as indicated at the time of the Break, the rest of the way ... and how did they end up performing, relative to their existing W/L record, at the Break. See what the correlation is between opponent strength post-Break and pre/post Break record the rest of the way (could also factor in pre-Break SOS in existing Break W/L record).

 

Your act us getting old my friend. You know the bill Murray everything is negative act. Its getting very old. Was fun at the start

[G-Snarls]

Ok, just the RA Dickey trade. At least the other one got us Reyes and Buehrle(who just went to the All-Star game)/

 

I was kidding. Josh Johnson could have been a serious game changer for us last year. Instead he may become one of the most forgettable Blue Jays in the history of the franchise. Heck he's STILL completely MIA.

[G-Snarls]

Your act us getting old my friend. You know the bill Murray everything is negative act. Its getting very old. Was fun at the start

 

Gotta stay fresh!

[jaysfan2014]

. I think the O's have the better team, even when the Jays have Lawrie, EE and Lind. Without them, it's a pretty wide gap.

 

Baltimore's offense has been inflated by Nelson Cruz. They wouldn't be contending if it weren't for him, and he's a regression candidate for the 2nd half, especially considering he's never hit more than 33 HRs a season in his career, and has a career average of .270. Their pitching outside of Gausman are also pitching above their peripherals as well, and will get exposed in the 2nd half.

[Nox]

Their pitching outside of Gausman are also pitching above their peripherals as well, and will get exposed in the 2nd half.

 

Isn't Mark Buehrle a chartered member of that club?

[saskjayfan]

Show me how meaningful a difference it is, in actual application ... not the hypothetical statistical likelihood. Yes, over 17 games v. 3 games, you're more likely to have a "true" outcome ... but what I'm saying is that, even in that 17 game stretch, the variability of respective level of play by your opponents at any given time is so high (general level of play, pitching matchups, etc.), that, while "more true," it's still not "true." So just stick to the "the better team will win" viewpoint. I think the O's have the better team, even when the Jays have Lawrie, EE and Lind. Without them, it's a pretty wide gap.

 

I think the Jays have the better team with Lawrie, EE and Lind in the lineup. If you want me to create a statically significant mathematical model to indicate what the betting odds would be that the jays outperforming the O's over the next 17 games due to an easier schedule, then you're a moron. That would take an incredible amount of time and I don't need to verify statistically what can be identified qualitatively. Sure the variance of outcomes is significant, but I'd rather our pitching face the hitters and pitchers we're facing than the steady diet of pujols, trout and Hamilton, Donaldson, samardzija, gray, felix, iwakuma..etc.

 

If the Jays had EE, Lind and Lawrie and were healthy, I would bet large sums of money that over the upcoming 17 day stretch that the jays would have a better record than the orioles at even money. Anything could happen as this is sports, but if you continually make bets where the odds are stacked in your favour then you would make a lot of money. The reality is I would never find such odds, because we're playing s***** teams and the O's are playing good teams.

 

As it stands, we dont' have EE, Lind and Lawrie and our likelihood of having a better record over the next 17 than the O's is probably a flip em. I posting things Jays fans can be optimistic about. The 7 games the mariners play the O's is good for the Jays. If we were facing the tigers, Orioles and mariners and A's over the next stretch I would feel sick given the status of being 4 games and 2.5 back right now.

 

At least with the schedule we have there is room for an optimistic view that maybe our pitching can be strong and a few hitters can make some timely hits and that after this stretch we can be no worse off than we are today and we'll have the core of our team back to compete the rest of the way.

 

You want the Jays to lose. I get it. You go to great lengths to dispel anything positive ever said about the Jays. The points I made were worth noting for those who had not looked at the schedule for the next couple weeks for both the jays and the O's.

[jays_fever]

http://www.gifmania.com.au/Animated-Gifs-Movies-Cinema/Animations-Epic-Movies/Animated-Images-300/300-Movie-76702.gif

[BlueJayWay]

For what it's worth:

 

[saskjayfan]

If you think I want that, you're a moron, because I explicitly stated that's what I didn't want. Instead, I wanted to see practical results from the past. Because I already acknowledged what statistical analysis would show. Honestly. If you're just going to try to argue and fight without reading, why bother?

 

 

 

 

All that's being mentioned by the optimists is the respective SOS going forward. In fact, my comment, which you originally responded to, was in response to such a comment, and not authored by you.

 

And how silly to claim that because I have a negative view of the Jays' chances that I actually WANT them to lose. Please don't try to turn this into a childish "you're not cheering hard enough, or the right way" debate.

 

I've always stated I'm an optimist. I have no issues with self identifying my flaws. Why can't you acknowledge you're a pessimist?