John Gibbons: When Can We Fire This Failure?

[BlueJaysGirl]

I have a BABIP to location graph somewhere. Dunno if I can find it.

 

That sounds like something I should tattoo on my thigh.

[The_DH]

Year to year correlation of BABIP: 0.0196 R^2

Correlation of BB% (pitchers who have less control) to BABIP: 0.0023 R^2

Correlation of BABIP to ERA: 0.0145

Correlation of SwStr to ERA: 0.1148

Correlation of Pace to ERA: 0.0347

 

The time between pitches is a better indicator of future success than BABIP LOL

Number of holds has a better correlation to future ERA than BABIP does lol.

 

I've been meaning to ask you, do you have a stat on the highest predictors of world series success as compared to division series success?

[saskjayfan]

McGowan is not better than Redmond, and there's nothing wrong with keeping Wagner in AAA so you can keep Redmond around as insurance. Christ, if this front office is punting guys like Redmond so that Neil Wagner doesn't have to spend time in AAA we're worse off than I though, and I thought we were pretty bad.

 

McGowan is better than Redmond. You just have a hate on for the guy. McGowan pitched a decent game last night. If you're going to run advanced stats based of last night and say he's terrible then fine. He never struck out a lot of batters last night. It was also 6 degrees at game time and raining throughout the game. Pitchers on both teams were missing their spots. The velocity was there. There have been poor starts throughout the league in many of the cold weather games. You shouldn't write pitchers off early in a season, let alone a guy who is still building up endurance and a guy who hasn't pitched in the bigs in 6 years. I don't know who thought things would just click and be easy from the get go from McGowan. He's showing good velocity and good movement. He just isn't executing consistently enough. Some sliders come in with great movement, but too many come in flat and are hung out over the middle of the plate and crushed. More consistent execution will come in time. He battled tough conditions last night and got better as the game went on, not worse, which is a good sign for a pitcher.

[GD]

I've been meaning to ask you, do you have a stat on the highest predictors of world series success as compared to division series success?

 

Watch it be WAR and all the anti-saber folks will freak out.

[saskjayfan]

Watch it be WAR and all the anti-saber folks will freak out.

 

I'm not a huge saber geek but I occasionally check out WAR stats on Baseball reference.

[The_DH]

WAR would make some sense for a division leader but the r-sq on division leader could be higher than world series winner.

[Angrioter]

Year to year correlation of BABIP: 0.0196 R^2

Correlation of BB% (pitchers who have less control) to BABIP: 0.0023 R^2

Correlation of BABIP to ERA: 0.0145

Correlation of SwStr to ERA: 0.1148

Correlation of Pace to ERA: 0.0347

 

The time between pitches is a better indicator of future success than BABIP LOL

Number of holds has a better correlation to future ERA than BABIP does lol.

 

Pace

01-Rays 26.4 (12th BABIP .301)

30-Jays 21.2 (6th BABIP .314)

[JaysFan4Ever]

It's probably (more than likely) been said before but for a team that was going "all in" they hired a guy who only could get a job in the minors? You'd think they would have found someone with more experience especially with a roster that has the talent and post season expectations. Granted there aren't many people who can be managers like that but somewhere there could have been someone with better skill sets. Some of the moves he's made this year have been questionable and come back to bite the team big time. Could be the hindsight bias on my part but you'd think they would have gone after someone who's been to the post season, managed established guys etc. You fire someone because you don't think they're right for the team and what you're trying to do then bring the same guy back just doesn't make a lot of sense. I could be clueless here.

[Angrioter]

I have played organized baseball from age 6-18. Canadian high school level from age 15-18.

 

I hit .350/.418/.361 in the Spring League at 18.

 

Then hit .629/.729/.771 in the fall league lol

 

Speedyish slap hitting catcher FTW

 

Juan Pierre-esque

[Angrioter]

I mean Rich Harden and Erik Bedard have had good seasons more recently than McGowan. Why not bring them in and hand them rotation spots?

 

Some guy > McGowan > Harden

[saskjayfan]

Ew lol I've never looked anything up on B-R.

 

lol....I wasn't being serious...I just like to get you saber guys panties in a knot.

[Angrioter]

lol....I wasn't being serious...I just like to get you saber guys panties in a knot.

 

B-R is our arch-enemy. The dinosaurs, Alex, Minaya and Amaro use B-R.

[Deadpool]

Yeah I don't get how people can blame this mess on Gibbons, he seems to do more right than wrong.

 

I'm not particularly pleased with his bullpen management, but other than that I'm not faulting him too much (too much sac bunting, but when you have an absolute shitshow for the bottom of the line up you have to do something...)

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

There isn't actually any evidence that this is true. I can't f***ing wait for McGowan to be gone we can stop hearing about how good he is, even though he's not actually good at all.

 

Scary to think we agree 100% on this . Redmond has been nothing but decent since they called him up last year. McGowan is a feel good story who has only been good in mostly inconsequential one inning stints where he can just throw hard. I think the Jays really messed up not making Redmond the 5th starter out of ST. By now, we'd know if he's an asset to our starting staff or not, and probably neutral to good impact on the Jays W/L record.

 

Stroman should get a shot now anyways, with Redmond ready to come in on any Stroman/Morrow start until things are clearer.

[Chappy]

I'm not particularly pleased with his bullpen management, but other than that I'm not faulting him too much (too much sac bunting, but when you have an absolute shitshow for the bottom of the line up you have to do something...)

 

I think he has been quite good with the BP management. Sure there are times he makes a call that I don't agree with but i find he makes the logical call more often than any other manager this team has had in recent memory. I actually like him as a manager, it's not his fault AA didn't provide him with proper depth and quality SP.

[GD]

What's with CHP using smilies now? terrifying.

[shortstop]

McGowan's earned himself another start or two...

 

Morrow imo is the one also on the hot seat, or the one I want on the hot seat ...

 

whichever falters, if any, in the next start or two is the one I'd want Stroman to replace to see what he can do...

[darthjon]

Thats not him, unless he made a new account. Bluejaysfromaway is signed up for an account on here:

 

http://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/members/772-BlueJaysfromAway

 

No, not me. Like I said, I just came across it while I was searching the interweb about the topic. I happen to be just a baseball fan who doesn't know much about the management side of the sport, so I found the article very informative.

[darthjon]

Agree. Walking 8 batters in 3 innings is a sign of something seriously wrong, whether it is his mechanics or his mental game or both. Making good pitches and getting hit happens to every pitcher, but a complete inability to find the strike zone can't be tolerated. Morrow = the next Rick Ankiel?

[GD]

Agree. Walking 8 batters in 3 innings is a sign of something seriously wrong, whether it is his mechanics or his mental game or both. Making good pitches and getting hit happens to every pitcher, but a complete inability to find the strike zone can't be tolerated. Morrow = the next Rick Ankiel?

 

They're not even remotely similar situations.

[Daniel Labude]

How is this idiot still here.....McGowan to pitch Sunday, Happ....on Monday....just trying to tank

[darthjon]

They're not even remotely similar situations.

 

Just making a point about the inability to find the strike zone. In a joking manner.

[Stangstag]

Pulling Buehrle in the 7th inning, 2 outs, no men on base, when Buehrle was doing well and was at 95 pitches.

[Bluejays0988]

- Batting worst hitter in order in 2 hole where it should be reserved for one of top 3 hitters.

 

In his defense Getz did have a pretty good game

[The_DH]

What is wrong with the starters that they need to go only 5 innings every 6th day now? Really a six man rotation? Could we baby them more?

[shortstop]

geez, 6 man rotation? best case, Happ pitches 5-6 average innings or he'll be gone by the 3rd or 4th inning with the jays down 5...

 

I only like this if it's 'showcasing' Happ for a trade

[The_DH]

geez, 6 man rotation? best case, Happ pitches 5-6 average innings or he'll be gone by the 3rd or 4th inning with the jays down 5...

 

I only like this if it's 'showcasing' Happ for a trade

 

Showcase would be acceptable.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

- Batting worst hitter in order in 2 hole where it should be reserved for one of top 3 hitters.

 

This was disgusting. Should be a fireable offense.

[CHRIS]

I'm really at a loss with this team:

- Give Goins the 2B job because defense is important, but consider moving Lawrie to 2B to make room for Francisco at 3B

- Take starts away from Dickey, MB and Hutch so that Happ can pitch

- Go to Jenkins with bases loaded up by 2 because it's too early for Delabar, Loup; but use them the same game down by 4

- Sierra...well, anything related to Sierra

- Batting Getz second...getting two hits last night will probably buy him a reserved spot in the 2 hole until Melky comes back

 

I am despaired.

[The_DH]

This was disgusting. Should be a fireable offense.

 

If it was a hot hand situation like he's hit that starter well then why is that a problem?