Red Sox Likely to sign Capuano...and AA's (mis)assessment of Value.

[Anemic0ffense]

I'm convinced that a few posters on here work for the organization. Defending AA and Beeston no matter what.

[saskjayfan]

Wait, so three guys who have combined for 0.1 fWAR over 300+ innings over the last two years are better than a guy who has been a league-average starter when healthy? Nobody is even suggesting that the team jettison Stroman, Hutch, or Drabek in favour of Capuano. Just that the team is stronger with all of them in AAA as injury replacements.

 

yeah....and if Capuano is healthy all year and posts a 5 ERA in the AL east, what good is it going to be with drabek, hutch, stroman and romero in AAA....and McGowan in a crowded bullpen when he has a lot more talent....I'm well aware of depth.....I just don't think a guy who posted the numbers he posted in the NL would look that good in the AL East.

 

Having more talented players in AAA vs the MLB team is not my cup of tea. The jays need to roll the dice and have some guys perform and stay healthy to make the post season...but if you're of the mind set they have zero shot then your scenario makes more sense...I'm not willing to throw the towel in before a single pitch is thrown.

[saskjayfan]

Ugh. He's had a sub-4 xFIP in the NL four years running. There is no reason to believe he'd have anything close to a 5 ERA here. Projections should all have him in the 3.95-4.25 range. You don't pass on a guy like that at $2.25 million because guys like Stroman and Hutchison could maybe possibly do a bit better. You save your bullets and enjoy the depth. This is baseball. Stroman is probably up in late April as an injury replacement even if Capuano is signed.

 

Boston has the right idea here. They have 5 legitimate starters, and then another 5 kids who could conceivably contribute in 2014, and still added Capuano because the price was right and depth is always a good thing.

 

what were Johnson's numbers the 4 years prior to coming to the jays last year.

[GD]

what were Johnson's numbers the 4 years prior to coming to the jays last year.

 

Just so many good sig worthy quotes today.

[GD]

The guy in your sig must be really confused as to why everyone is so mad about the Dickey signing.

 

Ftfy. After all, we didn't trade for him or anything.

[Terminator]

Not concerned in the slightest about missing out on Capuano.

 

Career 4.25 FIP and he's got injury concerns. Also, he's old so the wheels could come off his wagon any year now; at age 35 that is likely to happen sooner rather than later.

 

Also, once signed you put him in the rotation and face even more problems with the out of options pitchers. A Capuano signing basically means we lose one of Rogers or Redmond, two guys who could outproduce Capuano at a fraction of the cost.

[jaysfan2014]

Yes, and Redmond and Rogers are younger than Capuano. Boston only signed Capuano so that they don't want to have Workman wasting away in the bullpen in the MLB, when he needs starters' innings in AAA, especially with the risks of injury to Peavy, Buchholz and Lackey. They have depth in AAA.. but Webster, De La Rosa, Ranaudo and Britton aren't ready to be regulars in an MLB rotation, and with the bullpen full in Boston, they won't be able to get innings with the Red Sox right now barring injury.

 

Just because Boston's got tons of depth doesn't mean they'll pan out. Some of the pitchers may not pan out, and some may be used as trade bait if Boston needs to upgrade at the deadline.

[DuckDuckGose]

5 IP x 27 GS = 135 IP

 

He's s***

 

And 6IP x 30 starts is 180IP.

 

No one should expect that but if Happ is pitching well he will get ~150IP. He also has a pretty good FB, not s*** at all.

[saskjayfan]

Jesus Christ.

 

Keith law doesn't like Capuano either...so it's not like I'm the only guy in the world with this opinion. You're free to have your opinion. I know it's unpopular to say I like Kyle Drabek's arm because when you google fangraphs there's no statistics to back that up. There isn't a large enough statistical sample to totally discredit him either. Same with McGowan, and Hutch. I like all three better than Capuano. As far as Stroman goes, I don't really have an opinion on the guy, but everyone is excited about him. I'd be more than happy to make a friendly wager on Capuano...ugly avatar, can't post for a month...whatever you want. I say his ERA is above 4.3 at the end of July. You want to take the under?

[GD]

I'd be more than happy to make a friendly wager on Capuano...ugly avatar, can't post for a month...whatever you want. I say his ERA is above 4.3 at the end of July. You want to take the under?

 

In a hitter's park, I don't really like this bet. Maybe FIP, though.

[GD]

To be fair,he was traded for then signed to an extension.

 

Yeah, I realize haha. The way the guy said it though seemed like he meant genuinely signed off the free agent market.

[DuckDuckGose]

There is nothing to dislike about Drabek's arm other than it's inability to stay healthy or throw strikes.

[bzapple]

Yeah sure why not just watch another pitcher sign with a division rival. It's not like we need depth.

[Smedley Butler]

Starting pitching depth is the least of this teams worries. Burnett was the only real fit for the Jay's in free agency this off season, imo, and it's highly unlikely he'd come back here under any circumstances.

 

Making it too obvious here. Need to tone it down or they'll catch on.

[wilko]

Starting pitching depth is the least of this teams worries. Burnett was the only real fit for the Jay's in free agency this off season, imo, and it's highly unlikely he'd come back here under any circumstances.

 

http://images.wikia.com/uncyclopedia/images/archive/b/b5/20120914120348!Exploding-head.gif

[Smedley Butler]

http://images.wikia.com/uncyclopedia/images/archive/b/b5/20120914120348!Exploding-head.gif

 

Obvious troll is apparently unobvious?

[wilko]

Obvious troll is apparently unobvious?

 

http://stream1.gifsoup.com/view/239473/stare-down-o.gif

[Smedley Butler]

http://stream1.gifsoup.com/view/239473/stare-down-o.gif

 

rofl

 

This made my early-evening.

[Angrioter]

 

http://i.imgur.com/t5zk0.gif

[Smedley Butler]

http://i.imgur.com/OdZVsHn.jpg

[Smedley Butler]

http://i.imgur.com/1KP9UTs.jpg

 

I'll stop now.

[Olerud363]

Remember when we all laughed at Cherington before he went on to win a WS with our former manager? Good times to be a Jays fan. How old is Beeston and what's the life expectancy on guys who pump cigar smoke through their mouths on a daily basis?

 

Bad news here. He's allready reached the average age of a smoker. But that doesn't mean he will drop dead though. Statistically he will still live another 14 years or so. A non smoker could be expected to live another 18 or so. At least according to this http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/09/01/smoking-health_n_3852209.html

[Smedley Butler]

The depth is there it's the high end guy's that need to be added.

 

Yet you say that starting pitching is the least of our worries? Doesn't really add up. Not having a single 2 or better on your staff is not the stuff of playoff teams, never mind contenders.

 

Edit: for the record, fack Capuano/Santana/Ubaldo etc. unless you wanted to sign BOTH Ubaldo AND Santana AND one of Drew/Infante/Ellis. One of these guys alone won't be a difference maker between playoffs or not, unless they came with additional reinforcements. Too late for all that, so roll with your optionless trash until the injuries strike, then start calling up from Stroman, Hutchison, Drabek at AAA.

[Smedley Butler]

Hopefully by June we're well out of it so that will force the FO's hand to begin the rebuild (?). Honestly, it's for the best at this point. The worst thing would be for us to be in a position come the deadline that this FO has free reign to add to the roster because we're close with this old, injury-prone, overpaid group.

 

Let's re-tool or whatever the fack you want to call it, unload Encarnacion, Bautista, Dickey, Rasmus, Reyes, Buehrle, Janssen, Lind, Happ, Cabrera, Delabar, McGowan, Navarro et cetera, Basically anyone over 26, if the demand is there and we can get a worthwhile return. The prospect/young player haul that would likely net would, combined with now ample payroll space, allow for a speedy return to at least as good as we are now, except with a much superior roster going forward, and much better potential to improve from within obviously.

[Smedley Butler]

It sucks, because there are pretty much no building blocks here. If/when this roster fails in 2014, the next management regime is basically working with a core of Lawrie, Stroman, and Sanchez. Hopefully the plug is pulled on this shitshow this season so guys like Encarnacion and Bautista can be traded for players who can be added to the next core. If not we're probably looking at like 5 years before being relevant again.

 

The big question is whether we unload these guys while they still have value. We ride this thing out another year, we'll be lamenting who we could have maybe gotten in return instead of the B and C names we get back. Like I said, I'm rooting for disaster so this happens by THIS deadline and not the 2015 one, it's what's best in both the medium and long term.

[Smedley Butler]

No, I said starting pitching "depth" is the least of this teams worries not starting pitching.

 

Again, having a shitload of 4's and 5's and maybe one or two 3's (if healthy) is satisfactory to you? ;-)

[ElNik2013]

Hopefully by June we're well out of it so that will force the FO's hand to begin the rebuild (?). Honestly, it's for the best at this point. The worst thing would be for us to be in a position come the deadline that this FO has free reign to add to the roster because we're close with this old, injury-prone, overpaid group.

 

Let's re-tool or whatever the fack you want to call it, unload Encarnacion, Bautista, Dickey, Rasmus, Reyes, Buehrle, Janssen, Lind, Happ, Cabrera, Delabar, McGowan, Navarro et cetera, Basically anyone over 26, if the demand is there and we can get a worthwhile return. The prospect/young player haul that would likely net would, combined with now ample payroll space, allow for a speedy return to at least as good as we are now, except with a much superior roster going forward, and much better potential to improve from within obviously.

 

I think you're describing a rebuild not a retooling when you're talking about unloading EE, JoeyBats and a couple others. This franchise needed to accept to take a step backwards after the 2012 season in order to be in a better position to take 2 steps forward. Had they done this for the 2013 season, the team would be in pretty good shape both in terms of almost-ready prospects and financial flexibility. However, accepting to take a step back likely would've also meant fewer tickets sold, ratings and interest, so I think that played an important part in their decision-making.

[Smedley Butler]

I think you're describing a rebuild not a retooling when you're talking about unloading EE, JoeyBats and a couple others. This franchise needed to accept to take a step backwards after the 2012 season in order to be in a better position to take 2 steps forward. Had they done this for the 2013 season, the team would be in pretty good shape both in terms of almost-ready prospects and financial flexibility. However, accepting to take a step back likely would've also meant fewer tickets sold, ratings and interest, so I think that played an important part in their decision-making.

 

In my mind unloading all those guys and taking a step back for one year, then in year 2 or even 3 getting back to our current level or thereabouts but with a cast of young, some highly touted 2nd or 3rd year guys, wouldn't be a full-on rebuild because you're not planning on sucking for long. Depending on what we got back, we could conceivably be the same or even better, and not much chance of being appreciably worse over 162 games. We're not exactly going places as currently constructed.

[Smedley Butler]

Not likely going to play out that way, unfortunately,

 

2015 deadline at the earliest. It's not hard to see the plan when you take a look how this team's constructed. Reyes is the only guaranteed contract for the 2016 season with Dickey, EE and Bautista having options. They'll role with this debacle till then and possibly into 2016 if they manage to be competitive in 2015.

 

Most of any talent in the farm is 2-3 years away minimum so the timeline fits pretty good for a retool in 2015/16.

 

They'd be absolutely insane to risk riding this current group of contracts out past the next 4 months unless they're either in a playoff spot or within a game or two of one at this coming deadline. If they choose to tear it down sooner rather than later, we're seeing to it that we accelerate the process and suck a year sooner, BUT to be better 4 years sooner due to the advanced prospects/young regulars we'd get back. That's a deal I make every time, because it's the obvious one to make. I'd be floored if they did what you suggest they likely will, if you're being sincere.

[ElNik2013]

In my mind unloading all those guys and taking a step back for one year, then in year 2 or even 3 getting back to our current level or thereabouts but with a cast of young, some highly touted 2nd or 3rd year guys, wouldn't be a full-on rebuild because you're not planning on sucking for long. Depending on what we got back, we could conceivably be the same or even better, and not much chance of being appreciably worse over 162 games. We're not exactly going places as currently constructed.

 

 

I would've been fine with unloading them after the 2012 season as I think they had hit a snag in the rebuild and needed to take a step back to be in a better position to take 2 steps forward. I'm not saying I disagree with you, in fact, I'm hoping for what you suggested which is why I'm not up in arms about the lack of moves this off season. However, you have to remember that Rogers owns the Jays and one of the reasons they bought them, maybe a big or the biggest reason, was for content for Rogers Sportsnet. In order to have taken a step back after the 2012 season or to take a step or 2 back now, Rogers would have to be willing to accept lower attendance, viewership, interest and revenue or even profits.

 

One thing people forget in all of this, except for TheHurl, is that the team's been doing better attendance and ratings wise, so in this sense, AA and Beeston have been doing a big part of their job, at least as far as the owner is concerned.