Kershaw to sign extension

[reedjohnsonfan]

7 years 215 million. WOW. This was a must do from the Dodgers standpoint.

[reedjohnsonfan]

Link

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/01/dodgers-to-extend-clayton-kershaw.html

[Laika]

Just over 3.0 WAR per season needed to break even. Room for some value here.

 

Like the Dodgers even care.

[saskjayfan]

Like the Dodgers even care.

 

The Dodgers payroll in a couple years is going to be ridiculous with all the luxury tax they pay....how high can they go...I don't think they're done spending yet.

[Terminator]

Good move by the Dodgers.

[reedjohnsonfan]

Just over 3.0 WAR per season needed to break even. Room for some value here.

 

Exactly the Dodgers don't care about $$/WAR (in fact a lot of teams probably don't). Everyone including Kershaw knows that about LAD making this deal a must for the team. After what he's done the last few seasons I would say it's more about locking him up than the terms. Good opt out clause for him though.

[reedjohnsonfan]

Good move by the Dodgers.

 

GREAT move.

[reedjohnsonfan]

Tanaka up next.

 

Ya, hopefully they bomb like the Jays but can't see it.

[awsomest]

See the thing I don't understand is how the dodgers have all this tv money and they jays don't. I mean there is no way their average audience is greater then the jays 540k. Also all 162 games are broadcasted in the local network for the jays and none of there games are played nationally like the dodgers yet the jays still get a piece of that pie. I mean are the dodgers getting that much more money for ads even with a lower audience or is fox just hemorrhaging money for the advertisement and notoriety that comes with broadcasting dodgers games?

[awsomest]

Thanks! I just found this forum yesterday not sure how I missed it.

[awsomest]

What do you think of J.P. Arencibia?

 

His OBP was an abomination to mankind and had a poor attitude. I am happy they got rid of him but I honestly wouldn't be surprised if he somehow finally got it into his head that the Dinger isn't everything turned it around in Texas.

[z3r0s]

What do you think of J.P. Arencibia?

 

Are you going to ask that of every new poster lol

 

[Abomination]

See the thing I don't understand is how the dodgers have all this tv money and they jays don't. I mean there is no way their average audience is greater then the jays 540k. Also all 162 games are broadcasted in the local network for the jays and none of there games are played nationally like the dodgers yet the jays still get a piece of that pie. I mean are the dodgers getting that much more money for ads even with a lower audience or is fox just hemorrhaging money for the advertisement and notoriety that comes with broadcasting dodgers games?

 

From what I understand, advertising rates in the USA are far higher than they are in Canada. Also, a condensed audience is often preferred as it's easier to target specific demographics (this is how I understand it, I'm not a marketing person). Longer term deals also may lose the network money in the short term while making them a lot at the back end, unless they're structured like the Phillies deal is. Finally, audience I believe is calculated differently. It's very hard to find specific information on this.

 

I think it's safe to assume that Rogers is getting WAY more benefit from it than they're awarding to the Jays, but honestly as long as we're given a reasonable payroll to work with (and we now have been), I'm okay with that.

[John_Havok]

Just over 3.0 WAR per season needed to break even. Room for some value here.

 

It'll be a decent deal, the opt-out after 5 seasons gives Kershaw a nice option, if he holds even 80% of his current form and the TV bubble hasn't burst, he could opt out and cash in on another 5-7 year guaranteed deal. If not, 2 more years at 31 million is nothing to laugh at either.

[awsomest]

Anyways the Dodgers salary was sitting at $211 million without Kershaw so that's now up to ~$241 million (assuming the contract is evenly distributed) assuming that tanaka would be 20m aav that's at least 260 million in payroll before adding luxury tax to get him. Honestly Im not to sure about that but its the dodgers so who knows.

[Dylan]

Time for the dodgers to win it all with this money...

 

Imagine

 

1. Kershaw

2. Greinke

3. Tanaka

4. Ryu

5. Haren

6. Beckett

7. Billingsley

[John_Havok]

Time for the dodgers to win it all with this money...

 

Imagine

 

1. Kershaw

2. Greinke

3. Tanaka

4. Ryu

5. Haren

6. Beckett

7. Billingsley

 

I'm trying to imagine how all of them are going to fit in the major league roster is they're all healthy. Beckett and Bills to the pen?

[awsomest]

Payroll against the luxury cap is in AAV, not what they actually make that year. Jose Reyes hit on payroll for luxury tax purposes is less then he will make this year.

 

Ahh ok but I would assume that the two numbers wouldn't be too far off for the dodgers especially since the possible ~50m that tanaka and kershaw would the their aav. A guy like Greinke is getting payed $1.5m more then his aav this year while Carl Crawford is 900k over his aav. Definitely a beneficial difference for the Dodgers but it will still be a monstrous luxury payout.

[John_Havok]

Payroll against the luxury cap is in AAV, not what they actually make that year. Jose Reyes hit on payroll for luxury tax purposes is less then he will make this year.

 

Wow, you getting thumbs down like crazy on fangraphs for indicating that Strasburg, Fernandez, Sale and Harvey are all comparable talents to Kershaw.

 

Do I smell a comparison piece coming???

[Abomination]

Time for the dodgers to win it all with this money...

 

Imagine

 

1. Kershaw

2. Greinke

3. Tanaka

4. Ryu

5. Haren

6. Beckett

7. Billingsley

 

I'm trying to imagine how all of them are going to fit in the major league roster is they're all healthy. Beckett and Bills to the pen?

 

I'm fairly certain Beckett will be traded if they get Tanaka.

[NorthOf49]

Wow, you getting thumbs down like crazy on fangraphs for indicating that Strasburg, Fernandez, Sale and Harvey are all comparable talents to Kershaw.

 

Do I smell a comparison piece coming???

I don't understand it either. The only thing separating Kershaw and those guys is ERA and Cy Youngs, neither of which the Fangraphs community usually cares much about (and shouldn't care about). I suppose he has a narrative too -- the modern Koufax! I suppose I would say that some of those guys haven't established Kershaw's level of durability. Hernandez and Verlander certainly have though and I'd put them right on par with Kershaw.

[xposbrad]

Ya, hopefully they bomb like the Jays but can't see it.

 

Ya, the dodgers are locking up players entering their prime, not 35+ year olds. They also are able to sign free agents. So not quite like the Jays lol

[xposbrad]

Time for the dodgers to win it all with this money...

 

Imagine

 

1. Kershaw

2. Greinke

3. Tanaka

4. Ryu

5. Haren

6. Beckett

7. Billingsley

 

They basically have 4 #1s, while the Jays have 0 number 1s. What's scary is Ryu/Tanaka/Kershaw are all mid 20s as well.

[John_Havok]

Dodgers would have to eat a chunk of that to get anything meaningful in return. He's very hittable now

[reedjohnsonfan]

They basically have 4 #1s, while the Jays have 0 number 1s. What's scary is Ryu/Tanaka/Kershaw are all mid 20s as well.

 

I'm not sold on Ryu, but can't argue with the season he put together. I wouldn't be surprised if he took a bit of a step back next year. Still a good pitcher and probably better than anyone the Jays will have.

[NorthOf49]

Dave Cameron: "Kershaw [is] both younger and better than both [Verlander and Hernandez]."

 

No evidence given for the latter lol, we're supposed to take it for granted. Fangraphs' signature performance value stat, fWAR (derived from FIP), has Verlander, Felix and Kershaw as very comparable pitchers over the past one, two, three, etc. seasons (in fact, Verlander has a real edge over the past 2+ seasons), and the projection system Dave Cameron has used countless times in the past two months (Steamer) has both Verlander and Felix projected for more WAR than Kershaw -- in Felix's case an entire win more.

 

I really wonder then how he is coming to this conclusion. JFaS, if you write a piece on this you'll take Cameron to the cleaners!

[Angrioter]

Dave Cameron: "Kershaw [is] both younger and better than both [Verlander and Hernandez]."

 

No evidence given for the latter lol, we're supposed to take it for granted. Fangraphs' signature performance value stat, fWAR (derived from FIP), has Verlander, Felix and Kershaw as very comparable pitchers over the past one, two, three, etc. seasons (in fact, Verlander has a real edge over the past 2+ seasons), and the projection system Dave Cameron has used countless times in the past two months (Steamer) has both Verlander and Felix projected for more WAR than Kershaw -- in Felix's case an entire win more.

 

I really wonder then how he is coming to this conclusion. JFaS, if you write a piece on this you'll take Cameron to the cleaners!

 

2009-2013

http://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=489&d=1389829275

 

King =/> KShaw > Justin

[NorthOf49]

Im already in the comments lol. With over 50 down votes.

I saw your first comment after John_Havok commented about it. -54! That type of rating is rare for non-trolls. Kershaw is a great pitcher but he seems to have obtained a reputation as a historically significant pitcher that he's yet to deserve.

[awsomest]

which rotation would you rather have?

1. 2014 Dodgers with tanaka

2. 2013 Tigers Rotation

3. 2011 Phillies Rotation

[Angrioter]

Felix Hernandez and Stephen Strasburg have better xFIPs over the past 2 years. Kershaw is 5th in baseball over that time.

 

He’s third over the past 3 years (Strasburg still better).

 

7th over past 4 years (Strasburg, Sale, and Hernandez better)

 

14th over the past 5 years.

 

He was also 6th last year!

 

Fangraph, time to change FIP-WinsAR; please Tips(Ex-Penis) , xxFIP, SIERA or ............