Choo inks 7 year deal with Rangers - Worth $130m

[GD]

I don't care how many wins the stats say we need, we are a lot closer to being competitive then the numbers say.

 

The numbers say we're like an 85 win team. I think that's pretty realistic. Pretty close to contention but not there yet.

[o2cui2i]

The numbers say we're like an 85 win team. I think that's pretty realistic. Pretty close to contention but not there yet.

 

that's if they have things fall their way and dont have any injuries or career dips. I dont us winning 85 with the team without adding a quality starter and a solid stick.

 

last year AA couldn't get any FA to come so he made trades that really didn't make sense. looks like he still can woo any FA. we'll have to hope he doesn't do anything long term stupid just to try to save his ass.

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

One of the great things about the Rangers is that they don't tend to give out big contracts to obvious landmines like that. They're the team letting those landmines walk (Wilson, Hamilton, Cruz). Ervin Santana is not a difference maker for this team in 2014.

 

Rangers have had big successes and big failures in their decisions; the top overriding reasons they remain competitive would be their weak division ( some years ) and willingness to spend money. Baseball being what it is, today's landmines and stars can reverse from season to season, but if you keep your hand in on several players one or two of them might do well. If the Rangers need something, they go get it. Sometimes it works out for them, sometimes not.

 

No reason the Jays can't operate on a similar model. I suppose if we listed the free agents signed by Texas and Toronto the last 13 years it would be clear.

[mitchf]

One of the great things about the Rangers is that they don't tend to give out big contracts to obvious landmines like that. They're the team letting those landmines walk (Wilson, Hamilton, Cruz). Ervin Santana is not a difference maker for this team in 2014.

I don't feel like Wilson deserves to part of that grouping of players. He's going to earn every bit of that contract.

[mitchf]

Their short term chances just shot up drastically, but he is going to be 32 after next years all-star break.

 

The Rangers are starting to play with fire here, can't afford any drastic f***-ups.

[jays4life19]

No reason the Jays can't operate on a similar model. I suppose if we listed the free agents signed by Texas and Toronto the last 13 years it would be clear.

 

The Jays are going to have to start making the playoffs consistently before free agents are going to want to come here without paying a premium.

[Abomination]

that's if they have things fall their way and dont have any injuries or career dips.

 

No it isn't. Projected injuries, etc are factored in (for the most part). Aging too. Career dips for things outside those areas should on average balance out with other players having career years.

 

We don't need things to fall our way to reach that, we just need way above average bad luck not to happen like it did last year. Things falling our way would be like what happened to the Red Sox last year, or the Orioles the previous year.

[Nox]

Not really. Not recently.

 

They did just agree to take on a Prince Fielder FA deal sans the two best years of it. That could easily be a disaster.

 

I'm just not sold on that regime to be honest. Daniels has said quite a few stupid things publicly and a couple of his most recent moves are at least questionable.

 

GM performance is affected just as much by random variation as player performance is. AA had the wool pulled over our eyes for a while. If even 1 of his previous big moves, like the Beltre signing, blew up I think general perception of them would be different. I'm not saying I think they're bad on the whole but I'm not ready label them as a top 5 front office either.

[connorp]

Whooaaa Nelly. I'm going to turn back the clock and stir up some s*** with an anti-saber post:)

 

I think you saber monkeys get to computer nerdy just blindly following projections to form an opinion on a signing. I know you guys probably don't..but it comes off that way..luckily this board is mainly made up of tight knit group of posters for the most part from the old board. If we were on the old board with a mix of people.. There would be a lot of anti-saber sentiment still.

 

A projection is a point of reference. Its a superior POR to something Amaro and his scouts can spout off at the mouth but it's not above interpretation and needs to be supplemented with scouting.

The system takes s*****, below avg, avg, good, as elite players and stirs them all up and spits out an average more or less. If I'm wrong in that theory please correct me. It's not responsible to comp an elite player with a s***** player.

 

There are plenty of things to consider outside of what fangraphs has. I've mentioned before, like with a SP there are more things than age/velo. What's his secondary stuff like. How will he comp for a velo drop. A good example is a guy like Anibal. I'm sure the projection system had him steady or declining this year. But when you watched the guy pitch 2 years ago for the Tigers down the stretch..you could see it was a guy with real upside there. I was drooling to sign him. Of course, lifes not that easy and the guy may never reach his ceiling..but that has to be factored in when making a decision to aquire a FA

I'm biased in bringing up Jacoby as he's one of my favorite players..but when you watch him play..you can see he hasn't lost a step. There's power there that didn't translate at times but he's a guy with upside still so I'm not going to assume hes going to decline half a win each year. He has become a great baserunner beyond just speed..

 

I do believe in WAR as a stat and think you should use it as a POR when analyzing a FA deal..but just think more thought should go into it besides what Steamer says. If you're thinking "no s*** Sherlock"..I'm just saying it comes off that way..that saber guys are close minded to anything outside fangraphs.

 

Also I know I made an error saying "POF" but I'm on my phone and don't know how to go back.

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

that's if they have things fall their way and dont have any injuries or career dips. I dont us winning 85 with the team without adding a quality starter and a solid stick.

 

last year AA couldn't get any FA to come so he made trades that really didn't make sense. looks like he still can woo any FA. we'll have to hope he doesn't do anything long term stupid just to try to save his ass.

 

That's the thing is you might be right, but I think they could win 85 with this team and a normal amount of bounce back on their luck. In which case adding a quality starter and a solid stick puts them at 90+. Only time will tell but I'm pretty sure standing pat now will mean we miss the playoffs again. I'd have loved to see them just invest money in two players this off season and see where it goes, and bail midseason if it doesn't work out. The timing is perfect, you can just play Rasmus next season for cheap and move or sign him based on his AND team performance in 2014.

 

I expect Lawrie, Stroman, Dickey, Morrow, Reyes all present real upside potential ( maybe even Hutch, Cabrera, Rogers ) and losing JPA, Johnson ( 2013 version ), and Bonofocio are addition by subtraction. Downside from last year seems limited, maybe Bautista or EE totally lose it ( seems unlikely but possible, injuries ? ), Buehrle becomes 100% ineffective ( could happen yes, I see this as being a real risk ). In fact, hard to see many downsides to last season pretty much everything outside of Rasmus and EE went wrong.

 

Address the obvious holes and I can see 85 wins being the floor not the ceiling. A starter means only one of Morrow/Stroman/Hutch have to work out, or possibly just one of them in each part of the season. Another stick means our offence is solid with more depth.

[GD]

I'm just not sold on that regime to be honest. Daniels has said quite a few stupid things publicly and a couple of his most recent moves are at least questionable.

 

Like what? No snark, legitimate question. Haven't seen any comments by him lately.

[G-Snarls]

Whooaaa Nelly. I'm going to turn back the clock and stir up some s*** with an anti-saber post:).

 

No, no, no. You did it all wrong. Despite being controversial, you actually posted a thoughtful useful read and tried to back up your point. It will generate good discussion.

 

The other way to do it is start 2 threads in 5 minutes about how useless advanced stats are, deliberately aimed at doing nothing but pissing people off, using a creepy doctored picture of (james dean??) and using the word "clown" in your name.

 

/sarcasm

[Atothe]

They did just agree to take on a Prince Fielder FA deal sans the two best years of it. That could easily be a disaster.

 

I'm just not sold on that regime to be honest. Daniels has said quite a few stupid things publicly and a couple of his most recent moves are at least questionable.

 

GM performance is affected just as much by random variation as player performance is. AA had the wool pulled over our eyes for a while. If even 1 of his previous big moves, like the Beltre signing, blew up I think general perception of them would be different. I'm not saying I think they're bad on the whole but I'm not ready label them as a top 5 front office either.

 

I agree that Jon daniels has made some questionable moves lately but he has captial because of that farm system and making shrewd moves plus free agent signings. He is halfway between AA (mediocre) and Friedman/Beane (great).

[connorp]

No, no, no. You did it all wrong. Despite being controversial, you actually posted a thoughtful useful read and tried to back up your point. It will generate good discussion.

 

The other way to do it is start 2 threads in 5 minutes about how useless advanced stats are, deliberately aimed at doing nothing but pissing people off, using a creepy doctored picture of (james dean??) and using the word "clown" in your name.

 

/sarcasm

 

Ha. Yeah. The board would be better off with some solid contrarians like the old connorp and old Adam G. Trolls like Dogg have no value.

 

I don't have time or energy for it anymore plus the guys like BTS and Nox who I used to battle with grew on me like a fungus and I didn't seek to argue. Plus when I got past the

blind hate of WAR and such..I could see it's value and enjoyed fangraphs as my go to site.. But I've always seen it as the best POR but not above interpretation.

 

I think anyone would agree..but just saying sometimes it seems like those numbers are used as bible verses..I know it's not the intent but casuals get turned off by that. It doesn't matter anyway because as of now, this site isn't getting same kind of newbies. Hopefully it grows though

[jaysfan2014]

Great move by the Rangers. This will help considering they traded Kinsler to the Tigers.

[connorp]

Huh?

 

Assuming he means they just did a swap for Kinsler while this is adding to their team

[Nox]

I agree that Jon daniels has made some questionable moves lately but he has captial because of that farm system and making shrewd moves plus free agent signings. He is halfway between AA (mediocre) and Friedman/Beane (great).

 

That's where I'd put him with the information I have available to me.

 

As for connorp's fulmination - Perhaps it's because it's the holidays or perhaps it's because I've grown to like him a poster but I find myself with no desire to tear that spiel down piece by piece. I'll only remark sadly, borrowing a notion from Wolfgang Pauli, that what he's put forth is not even wrong (that one's for you kcjayfan).

[connorp]

Only assume raysjays is a troll.

 

Oh. I can't keep track anymore

[connorp]

That's where I'd put him with the information I have available to me.

 

As for connorp's fulmination - Perhaps it's because it's the holidays or perhaps it's because I've grown to like him a poster but I find myself with no desire to tear that spiel down piece by piece. I'll only remark sadly, borrowing a notion from Wolfgang Pauli, that what he's put forth is not even wrong (that one's for you kcjayfan).

 

Ha. Thanks. I feel same. Let's settle it this way then: Friendly $10 wager Jacoby finishes Top 5 in AL MVP voting next year.

 

Also winner gets to talk smack without fear of reprisal

[Nox]

Ha. Thanks. I feel same. Let's settle it this way then: Friendly $10 wager Jacoby finishes Top 5 in AL MVP voting next year.

 

Also winner gets to talk smack without fear of reprisal

 

But that assumes the BBWAA is a fair mediator here. I can't let them control the fate of even $10 of mine. *******s that they are.

[connorp]

But that assumes the BBWAA is a fair mediator here. I can't let them control the fate of even $10 of mine. *******s that they are.

 

Well played:)

[connorp]

But actually in Jacobys circumstance..

 

He's not a "slash numbers" kind of guy. His value IS mostly saber related. Not mainstream. I think he will put up nice slash lines though..and still be the defender and bsr hes been

[Nox]

Well played:)

 

Plus, projection don't like Ellsbury as a top 5 guy next year.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=0&players=0&sort=22,d

 

(And that's just the hitters)

[connorp]

Plus, projection don't like Ellsbury as a top 5 guy next year.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=0&players=0&sort=22,d

 

(And that's just the hitters)

 

Bro.. This is exact point of whole debate. It's a s*** projection. Hes been a +11 defender the last 3 years..why 4 next year? He's also expected to have a healthy OPS drop. Why? he finished year stronger than final numbers..and his history shows no fluke..his offensive upside

 

Let's change bet to 5 WAR+ if you want

[connorp]

I should say for $10 I don't give s*** if we set it at 7..

 

But I was never saying Steamer (and like) wasn't best POR out there..

Just that it's too cold with the data IMO

 

So a +33% increase in WAR from projections is reasonable for a wager

[xposbrad]

The numbers say we're like an 85 win team. I think that's pretty realistic. Pretty close to contention but not there yet.

 

What did the numbers say last year?

[Chappy]

What did the numbers say last year?

 

It's not a crystal ball, but over time those numbers tend to be fairly reasonable projections. Last season was a complete clusterf***. This team is better than that, just not a legitimate contender either.

[GD]

What did the numbers say last year?

 

90 wins. It's the same team, minus a few players (JJ, Boni, etc) and aged a little (that's a good and a bad thing). It makes sense. Like JFaS said, variance is a thing.

[Chappy]

90 wins. It's the same team, minus a few players (JJ, Boni, etc) and aged a little (that's a good and a bad thing). It makes sense. Like JFaS said, variance is a thing.

 

Sometimes all it takes is a guy like Stroman or Hutch to get a chance and take the league by storm. Not that I'm expecting that, but we do have some younger options that could be a factor this season as well as a ton of rebound candidates.

[connorp]

What did the numbers say last year?

 

Yeah I mean just JJ say.. I was one of many that thought he would have a great season. I wasn't big on Dickey but never would've thought he'd be THAT bad most of the season. Neither could projections