Choo inks 7 year deal with Rangers - Worth $130m

[TwistedLogic]

I love how the Blue Jay least deserving of reward the past three years is in the best position to win in 2014. Such is life.

[Fearthedoc]

Why do people have Choo batting 3rd, 4th, 5th in their lineups? He had a freakin' .423 OBP last year. Put him infront of Beltre/Fielder/Rios.

[jaysblue]

I think he'll be a great fit there. I really admire Texas' decision-making on the market. They've made huge commitments to Beltre, Darvish, and now Choo and I think all are great moves. I love that they're not afraid of big contracts for the right players.

 

Yup better signing players like Choo and Beltre than trading top prospects like Profar for that offensive production. They are a great organization.

[jaysblue]

1. Martin (OF) 2. Andrus (ss) 3. Fielder (1B) 4. Beltre (3B) 5. Choo (OF) 6. Rios (OF) 7. Moreland (DH) 8. Soto © 9. Profar (2B)

 

 

Great lineup

 

JP will get a taste of winning

 

Maybe Choo can teach JPA to learn how to take a walk. Ah that's hopeless to teach JPA, even for Choo.

[jaysblue]

Any lineup where Choo isn't batting 1st or 2nd is a fail.

 

100% agreed. His bat is best suited in the No. 1 or 2 spot in a lineup. I think No. 2 is ideal!

[Dylan]

100% agreed. His bat is best suited in the No. 1 or 2 spot in a lineup. I think No. 2 is ideal!

Agreed

 

Swap Choo and Andrus around.

[Nox]

Don't really love this deal tbh. The Rangers are going to be good (obviously) but $130M for Choo's decline years is quite a bit.

 

I can't imagine projections over the next year would look much different than:

 

3.2

2.5

2

2

1.5

1.5

1

 

13 Wins @ $8M = 104. With inflation and their position on the win curve up front I guess it's justifiable. But it's no steal (not that anyone has claimed that it was).

 

FWIW, someone in the know's response to this: "Lol Rangers.". So there's that.

[Nox]

As an aside, #2975 why Oliver projections looks sketchy: It has Choo as a +2 defender. I can't fathom how they've come up with that number.

[NorthOf49]

Choo, Beltre, Fielder... what an offensive nucleus. Good grief. Rangers are going to get back to winning pennants.

[Chappy]

Choo, Beltre, Fielder... what an offensive nucleus. Good grief. Rangers are going to get back to winning pennants.

 

I like Reyes/EE/Bautista better tbh, but it's close. That being said, the Rangers overall are a better team.

[raBBit]

I love how the Rangers really don't have any pluggers besides Fielder who provides elite LH power anyways.

 

Andrus, Choo, Rios, Profar and Martin can all steal you a base. Beltre can even move a little bit. That leaves Soto (catcher) and Fielder/Moreland DH/1B. Well constructed lineup for sure.

 

It all comes down to whether Darvish, Holland, Harrison, Perez and Ogando are enough but they should definitely be in the picture barring a crazy collapse.

[xposbrad]

Listen, Choo isn't like every other player. He gets on base. So, it's not like a huge power decrease is going to affect his value when he's 36-37. This is a pretty solid deal, even if it gives the rangers 5 solid years. Yes, the Rangers are a hitting machine team, and we knew he would land there. But, I like this deal for them, because they now have someone who can get on base all the time for Fielder, who will then just jack them out.

 

Blue Jays should take a look at the playoff teams now and plan accordingly. They now have no choice but to rebuild since they will not make the playoffs no matter what they do now. If they don't sign Tanaka + a 2b, this team has no shot at anything but most likely last in the division.

[Nox]

Dan Szymborski ‏@DSzymborski12m

In straight dollars, ZiPS evaluates Choo deal as 3rd worst in MLB history at time of signing, behind A-Rod 2, Howard, just ahead Werth.

Dan Szymborski ‏@DSzymborski10m

This is as RF. as a CF, ZIPS picks the Choo deal as only a couple million worse than the Howard deal.

[Nox]

Listen, Choo isn't like every other player. He gets on base.

 

That ages too. Drastically.

 

If you want a narrative for that, try this: As a player ages, his bat slows down. This is noticed by pitchers/catchers across the league. They start challenging the hitter on the inner 3rd with velo. To compensate, the hitter cheats more and starts his swing before he's used to. Because of that, the time his former abilities afforded to recognize and take borderline pitches degrades significantly. That has a direct effect on OBP (and basically every other offensive skill).

 

Bat speed does not just equal power. It's effect is wide ranging on a player's offensive profile. Once that goes, things can get ugly.

[jays_fever]

Lot of years but only 18.5 AAV, would have easily given that to him over the other massive contracts being given out.

[Dr. Dinger]

Choo, Beltre, Fielder... what an offensive nucleus. Good grief. Rangers are going to get back to winning pennants.

 

Really? They're kinda old. I'd say their best years are behind each of them.

[GD]

Dan Szymborski ‏@DSzymborski12m

In straight dollars, ZiPS evaluates Choo deal as 3rd worst in MLB history at time of signing, behind A-Rod 2, Howard, just ahead Werth.

Dan Szymborski ‏@DSzymborski10m

This is as RF. as a CF, ZIPS picks the Choo deal as only a couple million worse than the Howard deal.

 

A 7 year projection? Isn't that a bit iffy?

[Nox]

Really? They're kinda old. I'd say their best years are behind each of them.

 

I'm guessing he has at least 2 of them on his DDL team.

[Nox]

A 7 year projection? Isn't that a bit iffy?

 

Yup. Any long term projection is to be taken with a grain of salt (large, large error bars).

 

But even if you regressed him 100% to the mean across every category for every year in that contract, that's only ~14 wins. And I'd definitely be taking the under on 2 WAR for his age 38 season.

[havok24]

I'm guessing he has at least 2 of them on his DDL team.

 

All of them.

[G-Snarls]

Choo, Beltre, Fielder... what an offensive nucleus. Good grief. Rangers are going to get back to winning pennants.

 

Not quite. Washington will find a way to blow it. I can't believe he hasn't been fired. I like the guy and all but...

[Nox]

One thing to note re: the Szymborski comments, his $/WAR is based off Cameron's method and is almost certainly low/wrong.

[Nox]

All of them.

 

These jokes write themselves.

[Chappy]

Not quite. Washington will find a way to blow it. I can't believe he hasn't been fired. I like the guy and all but...

 

Cocaine anyone?

[GD]

One thing to note re: the Szymborski comments, his $/WAR is based off Cameron's method and is almost certainly low/wrong.

 

14 wins * 7.5 is $105m and that's not adjusting for inflation or where they are on the win curve. I think the deal will be just fine.

 

If you do your 3.2, 2.5, 2, 2, 1.5, 1.5, 1 projections, and increase the cost of a win by 5% each year, that's ~$115m in value, which would be like ~-$14.3m in surplus value not adjusting for position on the win curve.

[Dr. Dinger]

I'm guessing he has at least 2 of them on his DDL team.

 

All three.

[LunchBox]

Why is there a 1.5 WAR difference between the two projection systems? The slash lines are nearly identical.

 

if you assume he's worth 4.7 wins this year (which is a half-win decline from last year) and start the decline from there the contract looks much better.

 

Edit: I noticed it is the projection for his defence, now I don't know what to believe.

[BlueJayWay]

No way man. Gets on base too much.

Who cares that he gets on base 39% of the time in his career? We want dingerzz!

[Nox]

Edit: I noticed it is the projection for his defence, now I don't know what to believe.

 

I think it's pretty obvious that the Oliver projection for his D is off.

 

Oliver also doesn't even try to project hitter playing time properly. 600 PAs for everybody.

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

Has to be said, the Rangers and Yankees have been throwing money around on free agents for years and the majority on here just seem to accept it as standard and enjoy the prospects of how the team might do. If it's the prospects of the Jays doing the same, you get a different reaction. My view, if the Jays added one big bat they'd have an amazing offence next year, and win or lose a pretty exciting team to watch next year. If they overpay for a pitcher like Santana, they may not get "value" but they'll be a competitive team. If they did both ( as the Rangers have done over and over again most of the last 6-8 years ), they would no doubt have been in the playoff hunt next season. Let's not pretend though that spending money on players wasn't a big part of their strategy.

 

Jays are a big budget team often operating like a moderate one. If there is one top criticism that the Jays of the last 10-12 years deserve, it has been getting cheap more often then not. This was not the way the Jays operated under Gillick. The young guys on here never experienced that era, but we were that team. We filled the stadium, went out and got top free agents ( even hall of famers ) when needed, and money was not an issue.

 

Less guys available now, one would hope the Jays acquire one big player because that would easily fit the budget still and give some glimmer of hope we can contend next season. I don't care how many wins the stats say we need, we are a lot closer to being competitive then the numbers say. The possibility that AA has gotten gun shy and does nothing much would not surprise me, he failed to make the logical moves during last season and I'm somewhat surprised he's still employed at this point. A few recent minor moves ( dropping Johnson, JPA ) were commendable, but only if he truly adds the one big starter he keeps talking about does his recent body of work make any sense. As I posted before, if a strong starter was not likely available, I'd have preferred they add two decent position players and roll the dice on the pitching. That would have created an entertaining team at a minimum. Most of the logical hitters are getting signed now by other teams.

 

My guess is he's trying to trade an outfielder and middle relief for a quality starter and a 2B. Might be Seattle holding things up, and Philadelphia might be in the mix but they seem a little goofy at times evaluating their players ( unwilling to rebuild when they have to ). If this fails, they probably go all in on Tanaka or Santana trying to get them to sign, with no guarantees they win the auction. At which point they may claim they tried, pick up Ackley and that's it.