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Abomination Buffalo Bisons

Abomination

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Small piece on platoon splits, with a table of regressed platoon splits for 2014 Blue Jays, based on Steamer.

 

http://www.breakingblue.ca/2014/01/16/blue-jays-true-talent-offensive-platoon-splits/

 

Nice article! I think one thing to consider is that not all splits are necessarily equal. What I mean by that is a player considered to be an every day player isn't likely to be pinch hit for (like Rasmus). Therefore, he faces the nasty opposite hand starters and relievers as well as the average ones and scrubs. A player who is (at least partially) platooned in their career may not face the elite guys (Price or Sale for example, or a few of the lefty specialists that completely obliterate Lind). A guy who is actively platooned probably has those splits in spite of not facing the nastiest of the guys, whereas a guy who isn't could see the numbers improve against the other hand if moving into that situation.

Laika Cooperstown

Laika

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
What I mean by that is a player considered to be an every day player isn't likely to be pinch hit for (like Rasmus).

 

The counterpoint here is that a guy like Rasmus is considered an everyday player because he is just good enough to play against same handed pitching. He might not mash against left handed pitching, but he's a good enough hitter that even when you apply his notable platoon split him vs. LHP is better than what you'd have on the bench.

 

And a guy who is protected against tough same handed pitchers, well, it's for a reason. If he could hit the mediocre same handed pitching with some level of confidence then he wouldn't end up getting protected against the nasty guys.

 

So yes, what you're saying might be a consideration, but at the same time, some of what you're saying is kind of already "taken care of" in the data or in the regression.

 

If a lefty gets guarded against strong same handed pitching, then he'll have less PA against them, so even if his split vs. LHP is artificially high, we'd regress it further to the mean anyway.

Abomination Buffalo Bisons

Abomination

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
If a lefty gets guarded against strong same handed pitching, then he'll have less PA against them, so even if his split vs. LHP is artificially high, we'd regress it further to the mean anyway.

 

That's true, it would certainly negate some of the difference.

Ziggyy108 Draft Eligible

Ziggyy108

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

I haven't spent a ton of time on the blog yet ... But I was thinking it should have a Forums tab that links to this site.

 

Maybe it is there and I missed it, or maybe it has been discussed already.

 

Just my thoughts!

jays4life19 MVP

jays4life19

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I haven't spent a ton of time on the blog yet ... But I was thinking it should have a Forums tab that links to this site.

 

Maybe it is there and I missed it, or maybe it has been discussed already.

 

Just my thoughts!

 

It does.

 

You just can't see it from a phone/tablet. I also can't see it from my work computer. I can only see it from my home laptop. I have brought it up before.

Ziggyy108 Draft Eligible

Ziggyy108

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
It does.

 

You just can't see it from a phone/tablet. I also can't see it from my work computer. I can only see it from my home laptop. I have brought it up before.

 

Ha where is it?

 

Im on my laptop. macbook. can't see it. I'm probably just missing it haha

Sorrow Draft Eligible

Sorrow

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Hey JFaS where did you find out Santos slider is unhittable basically? I was interested in doing some looking into that there area.
Atothe Vancouver Canadians

Atothe

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Just put the finishing touches on my batter projection system! Only problem is the player's have to be done one at a time!

 

[table]

[tr][td] Name [/td][td] PA [/td][td] HR [/td][td] R [/td][td] RBI [/td][td] AVG [/td][td] OBP [/td][td] SLG [/td][td] BABIP [/td][td] wOBA [/td][td] wRC+ [/td][td] BsR [/td][td] Fld [/td][td] WAR [/td][/tr]

[tr][td] Dioner Navarro [/td][td] 355 [/td][td] 10 [/td][td] 34 [/td][td] 41 [/td][td] 0.260 [/td][td] 0.325 [/td][td] 0.400 [/td][td] 0.284 [/td][td] 0.328 [/td][td] 99 [/td][td] -3.7 [/td][td] 3.6 [/td][td] 1.2 [/td][/tr]

[/table]

 

Are you projecting for 355 plate appearances because you think he's gonna split time with Kratz or because of injury?

Abomination Buffalo Bisons

Abomination

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Just put the finishing touches on my batter projection system! Only problem is the player's have to be done one at a time!

 

[TABLE]

[TR]

[TD] Name[/TD]

[TD] PA[/TD]

[TD] HR[/TD]

[TD] R[/TD]

[TD] RBI[/TD]

[TD] AVG[/TD]

[TD] OBP[/TD]

[TD] SLG[/TD]

[TD] BABIP[/TD]

[TD] wOBA[/TD]

[TD] wRC+[/TD]

[TD] BsR[/TD]

[TD] Fld[/TD]

[TD] WAR[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD] Dioner Navarro[/TD]

[TD] 355[/TD]

[TD] 10[/TD]

[TD] 34[/TD]

[TD] 41[/TD]

[TD] 0.260[/TD]

[TD] 0.325[/TD]

[TD] 0.400[/TD]

[TD] 0.284[/TD]

[TD] 0.328[/TD]

[TD] 99[/TD]

[TD] -3.7[/TD]

[TD] 3.6[/TD]

[TD] 1.2[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

I'm still tweaking my system, projecting only fantasy categories currently, and I'm using the fangraphs fan estimates for playing time (where available), but I have

 

[TABLE]

[TR]

[TD] Name[/TD]

[TD] PA[/TD]

[TD] HR[/TD]

[TD] R[/TD]

[TD] RBI[/TD]

[TD]SB

[/TD]

[TD] AVG

[/TD]

[TD] OBP[/TD]

[TD] SLG

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD] Dioner Navarro[/TD]

[TD] 462[/TD]

[TD] 16[/TD]

[TD] 49[/TD]

[TD] 58[/TD]

[TD]2

[/TD]

[TD] 0.269[/TD]

[TD] 0.336[/TD]

[TD] 0.439

[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

Abomination Buffalo Bisons

Abomination

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
How many years of data are you using? Are you doing any adjustments to BABIP or any park factors?

 

3 years of data. No specific adjustments to BABIP or park factors (I'll manually place Cano a little lower for example). I am however regressing all the categories to the mean for each player's position (to the equivalent of 2100 PA, and only factoring in full time players), and weighted to favor most recent season. Players also get an age scaling.

Abomination Buffalo Bisons

Abomination

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Something's screwy with Lawrie's slashes! I'll try and find the problem.

 

I have Lawrie at

 

[TABLE]

[TR]

[TD] Name

[/TD]

[TD] PA[/TD]

[TD] HR[/TD]

[TD] R[/TD]

[TD] RBI[/TD]

[TD] SB[/TD]

[TD] AVG[/TD]

[TD] OBP[/TD]

[TD] SLG

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD] Brett Lawrie

[/TD]

[TD] 593

[/TD]

[TD] 17

[/TD]

[TD] 73

[/TD]

[TD] 68

[/TD]

[TD] 12

[/TD]

[TD] 0.281

[/TD]

[TD] 0.343

[/TD]

[TD] 0.441

[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

Would be quite happy if he meets those.

Angrioter MVP

Angrioter

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I traded Lawrie for Iwakuka in the DDL. If he does this I'm going to regret it.

 

moron-trade my second favourite poster cyber friend.

Abomination Buffalo Bisons

Abomination

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I traded Lawrie for Iwakuka in the DDL. If he does this I'm going to regret it.

 

Looks like my BA and OBP are a little higher, but the rest of the numbers are pretty much in line with Steamer and Oliver.

 

[TABLE=class: cms_table]

[TR]

[TD]Name[/TD]

[TD] Innings[/TD]

[TD] W[/TD]

[TD] S[/TD]

[TD] HLD[/TD]

[TD]K[/TD]

[TD] K/BB[/TD]

[TD] ERA[/TD]

[TD] OBPA[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD] Hisashi Iwakuma[/TD]

[TD] 204[/TD]

[TD] 13[/TD]

[TD] 0[/TD]

[TD] 0[/TD]

[TD]162[/TD]

[TD] 3.05[/TD]

[TD] 3.23[/TD]

[TD] 0.296[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

It's worth mentioning (as JFaS kind of pointed out) that I'm not scaling to a player changing teams, and I'm not adjusting the regression mean to the player's park.

NorthOf49 FCL Blue Jays

NorthOf49

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I have Lawrie at

 

[TABLE]

[TR]

[TD] Name

[/TD]

[TD] PA[/TD]

[TD] HR[/TD]

[TD] R[/TD]

[TD] RBI[/TD]

[TD] SB[/TD]

[TD] AVG[/TD]

[TD] OBP[/TD]

[TD] SLG

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD] Brett Lawrie

[/TD]

[TD] 593

[/TD]

[TD] 17

[/TD]

[TD] 73

[/TD]

[TD] 68

[/TD]

[TD] 12

[/TD]

[TD] 0.281

[/TD]

[TD] 0.343

[/TD]

[TD] 0.441

[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

Would be quite happy if he meets those.

That's a 5 win player if his defense remains excellent! I'd be ecstatic.

 

I need to come up with my own projections lol. Seems like it'd be a lot of fun to play around with.

Nox Draft Eligible

Nox

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
I would probably too. I'm using more than 3 years (hence the higher wOBA) and the system doesn't know he may be declining faster due to injuries.

 

Understood.

 

Not even criticizing anything. Literally every projection system is going to spit out a few results that your intuition is going to immediately disagree with.

Laika Cooperstown

Laika

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted

I feel like it's a fools errand to even try to project playing time. Just give everybody 600 PA, 180 (or 65) IP, and let people scale it up and down on their own if they want.

 

I don't really think past time played or missed is nearly as informative about future time played or missed as ppl think. Maybe it would make sense to slightly scale back proj playing time as age increases.

 

I dunno.

 

I just feel like systems act like they know more about injury risk than they really do when they try to predict playing time. Injuries are largely random - accept it, nerds.

Nox Draft Eligible

Nox

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
I feel like it's a fools errand to even try to project playing time. Just give everybody 600 PA, 180 (or 65) IP, and let people scale it up and down on their own if they want.

 

I don't really think past time played or missed is nearly as informative about future time played or missed as ppl think. Maybe it would make sense to slightly scale back proj playing time as age increases.

 

I dunno.

 

I just feel like systems act like they know more about injury risk than they really do when they try to predict playing time. Injuries are largely random - accept it, nerds.

 

It's not all about you Darrell.

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