Can Ryan Goins stick?

[flafson]

Okay sorry. Back to discussion, I apologize for my language I got a little caught up in the moment.

 

Thank you.

 

My point was: 1. We shouldn't jump to conclusions until he has enough AB's. 2. He should be in a similar position to Kawasaki until proven otherwise. 3. There is no point in bringing another Bonifacio/Izturis while you could have just had Goins/Kawasaki playing there to begin with while saving resources that could go elsewhere.

[flafson]

I'm not exactly sure what you mean, similar role as Kawasaki. Bench player? AAA depth?

 

Yes, both can be bench and/or AAA depth.

[Abomination]

Tell this to the people that are overrating his bat because of a BABIP influenced 9 first games in the MLB. He has a lot of at bats in the minors this season, and they show that he is not going to be a good MLB hitter.

 

I don't think anyone (or almost anyone) is saying anything about him deserving to be here next year based on his bat in the first 9 games. They're saying he deserves to be considered based on his glove if we can't get a clear upgrade to Izzy (to what Izzy should be doing) in the off-season, and are hoping he can hit enough not to be a liability (perhaps in the 80 to 85 wRC+ range, with the major league average this year for 2nd baseman 90). Really, his only issue this year in AAA was poor results against lefties, and he handled them okay in 2012 and 2011 so there's some hope there. If worse comes to worse, play Izzy against lefties and Goins against righties.

 

As for age, I don't care one little bit if he's 25. I care only about whether he can help the team or not.

 

With all that said, I want a clear upgrade at 2nd with Goins starting the season in the minors.

[Caper]

So can everyone who has posted in this thread agree that Goins should not be our starting 2B next season?

 

Well.... we could move Reyes to second and then move Goins to ss.

[JSFIP]

Updated this thread. I'll add the arencibia quits twitter thread and the JSFIP thread about how walks are over overrated. And if you have more that would be great

 

Don't worry king with you I'm sure there will be plenty more.

[GD]

I'd just like to bump this and say that as of writing, Ryan Goins is the 8th most searched player on fangraphs right now.

[G-Snarls]

Careful,you may get castrated for making such an irresponsible notion that Goins is a better defender than Kawasaki based on 9 games in the bigs.

 

I'm also going on scouting reports on very good defense in the minors.

[theblujay]

I don't think anyone (or almost anyone) is saying anything about him deserving to be here next year based on his bat in the first 9 games. They're saying he deserves to be considered based on his glove if we can't get a clear upgrade to Izzy (to what Izzy should be doing) in the off-season, and are hoping he can hit enough not to be a liability (perhaps in the 80 to 85 wRC+ range, with the major league average this year for 2nd baseman 90). Really, his only issue this year in AAA was poor results against lefties, and he handled them okay in 2012 and 2011 so there's some hope there. If worse comes to worse, play Izzy against lefties and Goins against righties.

 

As for age, I don't care one little bit if he's 25. I care only about whether he can help the team or not.

 

With all that said, I want a clear upgrade at 2nd with Goins starting the season in the minors.

 

This is pretty much what I've been saying all along, thanks

[G-Snarls]

I'm also going on scouting reports on very good defense in the minors.

 

It's also sort of hard to be "lucky" on defense. Everyone makes errors, and someone can come up and look bad over a small sample size if they're nervous and make some bad throws or something. But you can't fake smooth defense like that. I think it's real.

 

Batting? Different story. Very easy to come up and overperform (Goins) or underperform (Pillar) your true ability in a small sample.

Edited September 3, 2013 by G-Snarls

[gruber92]

It's also sort of hard to be "lucky" on defense. Everyone makes errors, and someone can come up and look bad over a small sample size if they're nervous and make some bad throws or something. But you can't fake (fixed) smooth defense like that. I think it's real.

 

Batting? Different story. Very easy to come up and overperform (Goins) or underperform (Pillar) your true ability in a small sample.

 

Wow.. A logical, baseball minded opinion. Refreshing, thanks bud.

 

Some of the minions on here kept harping that it's not possible to assess his defense over a 10 game sample size, which is f***ing ridiculous. If he looks smooth and is making all the tough plays in a SSS, why can't he continue to do so? Hitting like you mentioned is a different story.

 

He is less than one year removed as a good minor league hitter.

 

Eastern League hits leader for 2012 (. 289)

Edited September 3, 2013 by G-Snarls

[Caper]

I'm also going on scouting reports on very good defense in the minors.

 

I remember when Lawrie came up... People used to laugh when people who were actually watching the games said he could play good defense. They'd say how terrible he was on defense on the old baseball prospectus podcast. Keith Law thought the same.... Jesus, I don't know if this season there has been a better defensive 3rd baseman.

[KingKat]

I remember when Lawrie came up... People used to laugh when people who were actually watching the games said he could play good defense. They'd say how terrible he was on defense on the old baseball prospectus podcast. Keith Law thought the same.... Jesus, I don't know if this season there has been a better defensive 3rd baseman.

 

Lawrie is exhibit A for why defensive scouting reports are worthless.

[G-Snarls]

Lawrie is exhibit A for why defensive scouting reports are worthless.

 

Which is odd because it seems like the one area scouts can tell you something that the numbers can't

Edited September 3, 2013 by G-Snarls

[G-Snarls]

I remember when Lawrie came up... People used to laugh when people who were actually watching the games said he could play good defense. They'd say how terrible he was on defense on the old baseball prospectus podcast. Keith Law thought the same.... Jesus, I don't know if this season there has been a better defensive 3rd baseman.

 

For sure. He could easily become the best defensive 3B in baseball.

[The Cats Ass]

I think only Machado and Arenado has more DRS then Lawrie.

[KingKat]

Which is odd because it seems like the one area scouts can tell you something that the numbers can't

 

Conventional wisdom say that Michael Lewis got scouts wrong when he wrote Moneyball, that he exagerated their flaws for dramatic effect but I often wonder if he was really that far off the mark.

[Frenchsoup]

For sure. He could easily become the best defensive 3B in baseball.

 

He'll never be as good as machado or longo but hes very solid over there. Missed a very catch able line drive in the 9th yesterday.

[froston]

Conventional wisdom say that Michael Lewis got scouts wrong when he wrote Moneyball, that he exagerated their flaws for dramatic effect but I often wonder if he was really that far off the mark.

 

Scouts are vital where the numbers are misleading / not informative.

 

In the amateur and rookie ball ranks, scouts are huge. In the Majors they are probably almost useless.

 

What level is the tipping point at? I don't know.

[TBJ12]

Do you mean this year?

 

Machado, Arenado, Longoria, Dominguez, Bianchi, Uribe, Donaldson and Headley all have more DRS.

 

Since 2012 Lawrie has put up 26 DRS to Longoria's 12.

 

Lawrie 0.1287 DRS per game.

Longoria 0.0701 DRS per game.

[Boxcar]

I remember when Lawrie came up... People used to laugh when people who were actually watching the games said he could play good defense. They'd say how terrible he was on defense on the old baseball prospectus podcast. Keith Law thought the same.... Jesus, I don't know if this season there has been a better defensive 3rd baseman.

 

The people who were actually watching the games were saying the opposite. I know it goes against what you're trying to accomplish, but making stuff up isn't going to help your case. All we heard were that he will need to move to the OF because he doesn't have the hands, range or instincts to stay at third.

 

All of that came from scouting reports in the minors.

[DuckDuckGose]

I wonder what we can expect from his bat going forward. He had a 98 wRC+ in 536 PA last year and is at 97 in 337 PA this year. He's obviously still a good player even with an average-ish bat, but that definitely seems to be what will limit him going forward.

 

If he can continue to get on base and play good D then he could be a 1-3 WAR guy. Perhaps Marco Scutaro (who was very good at 2B at one point) would be a good comp. Goins is going to K a lot more than Scutaro though.

[The Cats Ass]

I wonder what we can expect from his bat going forward. He had a 98 wRC+ in 536 PA last year and is at 97 in 337 PA this year. He's obviously still a good player even with an average-ish bat, but that definitely seems to be what will limit him going forward.

 

In the 2nd half of this season after he was brought back from injury the right way and not rushed he's had a 126 wRC+. Including a 145wRC+ in the month of August.

[G-Snarls]

I don't know what to hope for here. If Goins continues to impress I just hope he's for real and can sustain above average defense and league average batting next year. That would make him an acceptable starting 2B next year. The problem is if he impresses the FO with unsustainable hitting and they don't bother trying to upgrade this off season even though maybe they should.

 

Izturis should stay on the team no matter what, but preferably on the bench as utility. He would still get plenty of playing time due to injury-prone starters in Lawrie and ReyesI like him due to his reasonable ability to play 2B, SS and 3B, something that Bonifacio certainly couldn't do, and neither can Kawasaki realistically (his arm is too weak for 3B especially). For his career (this year is an outlier), his splits vs LHP and RHP show no difference so I don't think "platooning" with Goins makes sense.

 

Given that we aren't getting Matt Carpenter, Dustin Pedroia, or Robinson Cano, there's no top notch 2B we can snag. Going with 2 of Goins, Kawasaki and Izturis might be the best we can hope for. (Heck, we won a World Series with Manny Lee at SS)

 

I've said it so many times I'm tired of typing it, the best money is probably spent on a SP to shore up the rotation and catcher.

[G-Snarls]

I was actually talking about Lawrie. I saw the last couple posts and thought it was the Lawrie thread.

 

Goins generates 10x the posts that Lawrie does these days. Hilarious.

[DuckDuckGose]

I was actually talking about Lawrie. I saw the last couple posts and thought it was the Lawrie thread.

 

Ah ya, I get it now. I'm not really worried about Lawrie at all. He's gonna hit.

[DuckDuckGose]

I don't know what to hope for here. If Goins continues to impress I just hope he's for real and can sustain above average defense and league average batting next year. That would make him an acceptable starting 2B next year. The problem is if he impresses the FO with unsustainable hitting and they don't bother trying to upgrade this off season even though maybe they should.

 

Izturis should stay on the team no matter what, but preferably on the bench as utility. He would still get plenty of playing time due to injury-prone starters in Lawrie and ReyesI like him due to his reasonable ability to play 2B, SS and 3B, something that Bonifacio certainly couldn't do, and neither can Kawasaki realistically (his arm is too weak for 3B especially). For his career (this year is an outlier), his splits vs LHP and RHP show no difference so I don't think "platooning" with Goins makes sense.

 

Given that we aren't getting Matt Carpenter, Dustin Pedroia, or Robinson Cano, there's no top notch 2B we can snag. Going with 2 of Goins, Kawasaki and Izturis might be the best we can hope for. (Heck, we won a World Series with Manny Lee at SS)

 

I've said it so many times I'm tired of typing it, the best money is probably spent on a SP to shore up the rotation and catcher.

 

It's silly to write anyone off but, there is no reason to go with Goins as the starting 2B next year b/c of a one game sample. This org is trying to contend, go out and get a starting 2B. Goins has options, he will be there when needed. Let him prove himself over a larger sample as the inevitable injuries hit. Use Kawasaki off the bench and let him play every day in AAA.

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

In the 2nd half of this season after he was brought back from injury the right way and not rushed he's had a 126 wRC+. Including a 145wRC+ in the month of August.

 

I think Lawrie will have a breakout season next year. August has been huge to his confidance, now he can just play knowing he's got his spot every game. Offence won't be an issue for the Jays next season, especially if they upgrade 1 or 2 spots. Less injuries and ( hopefully ) less games where their starter spots the other team a 5 run lead would probably help the offence too.

[G-Snarls]

It's silly to write anyone off but, there is no reason to go with Goins as the starting 2B next year b/c of a one game sample. This org is trying to contend, go out and get a starting 2B. Goins has options, he will be there when needed. Let him prove himself over a larger sample as the inevitable injuries hit. Use Kawasaki off the bench and let him play every day in AAA.

 

Who do you get though?

[DuckDuckGose]

Who do you get though?

 

No idea exactly who they could land but, I'd start by calling TEX and STL to try and make something happen.

[GD]

*cough* Alexi Ramirez *cough*