Tale of two Shortstops

[GNick]

Reyes' WAR after 200 PA..........1.3

Kawasaki's WAR after 216 PA....1.1

 

There isn't much between them. But look at the contracts?

 

On another note...look at a low budget but defensive gem shortstop....

 

Andrelton Simmons..his WAR after 471 PA...4.2

 

Most of his WAR is defense. As his dWAR is 3.8. His Range Factor is 4.78. Shows the importance of defense at SS. Far better than Reyes' who is 3.32.

[BarrysSyringe]

Reyes' WAR after 200 PA..........1.3

Kawasaki's WAR after 216 PA....1.1

 

There isn't much between them. But look at the contracts?

 

On another note...look at a low budget but defensive gem shortstop....

 

Andrelton Simmons..his WAR after 471 PA...4.2

 

Most of his WAR is defense. As his dWAR is 3.8. His Range Factor is 4.78. Shows the importance of defense at SS. Far better than Reyes' who is 3.32.

Your right, kawasaki should be playing over reyes

[Frenchsoup]

Solution: Move Jose Reyes to second base. He played some second for the Mets.

 

 

is that really going to help his range factor?

[TheHurl]

As a reference point fWAR has Reyes at 1.3 and Kawasaki at 0.7. Simmons is at 2.4 fWAR. Range Factor is not the best defensive metric.

[GNick]

As a reference point fWAR has Reyes at 1.3 and Kawasaki at 0.7. Simmons is at 2.4 fWAR. Range Factor is not the best defensive metric.

 

I use RF over fWAR or rWAR where they on turf here. I wanted to show Reyes drop in range this year. fWAR includes things like baserunning which is reflected in WAR overall anyway.

[TheHurl]

I use RF over fWAR or rWAR where they on turf here. I wanted to show Reyes drop in range this year. fWAR includes things like baserunning which is reflected in WAR overall anyway.

 

But you did use rWAR...it was your main point. I'm not going to deny that Reyes has been bad defensively and if there were better options it might make sense to consider a move of him, but Kawasaki isn't the answer at short.

[GNick]

But you did use rWAR...it was your main point. I'm not going to deny that Reyes has been bad defensively and if there were better options it might make sense to consider a move of him, but Kawasaki isn't the answer at short.

 

I meant dWAR. I never use it where he plays on turf. Kawasaki may not be the best answer...but he is near as good as Reyes and 16 million cheaper.

[gruber92]

I meant dWAR. I never use it where he plays on turf. Kawasaki may not be the best answer...but he is near as good as Reyes and 16 million cheaper.

 

So you're basically saying Reyes and Kawasaki are one of the same because they have similar WAR. Is this real life? ITS NOT YOUR f***ING MONEY

[KSaw]

And one player coming off a serious injury, while the other played over his head for a few weeks.

[EdelweissBouquet]

Reyes' WAR after 200 PA..........1.3

Kawasaki's WAR after 216 PA....1.1

 

There isn't much between them. But look at the contracts?

 

On another note...look at a low budget but defensive gem shortstop....

 

Andrelton Simmons..his WAR after 471 PA...4.2

 

Most of his WAR is defense. As his dWAR is 3.8. His Range Factor is 4.78. Shows the importance of defense at SS. Far better than Reyes' who is 3.32.

 

 

War like most stats look good on paper, but loses

it's value evaluating players on the field. No one

who watches baseball religiously will say KW is

comparable to reyes.

[Terminator]

In the seasons prior to this one Reyes was below-average, but acceptable at SS. This year it's a really SSS and he has come off that freak injury which could be affecting him. I'm not ready to move him off SS just yet unless the opportunity were to fall in our laps.

[Olerud363]

War like most stats look good on paper, but loses

it's value evaluating players on the field. No one

who watches baseball religiously will say KW is

comparable to reyes.

 

The purpose of statistics like WAR is that humans are notoriously difficult at evaluating subjective things. We are notoriously difficult at evaluating complicated scenarios.

 

In 2005 I had a physicist recomend that I buy real estate. He was an incredibly smart guy. He just wasn't capable of evaluating the real estate market in the context of complicated sub prime mortgage derivatives. No one was. I know some people will say "I saw it coming from a million miles a way"... but c'mon. You either thought real estate was a great investment, or it wasn't". You only had 2 choices, some people were bound to get it right.

 

Anyway defense is kind of like that. Really complicated and no one can evaluate it well subjectively. The formulas aren't perfect either. But you shouldn't discard them out of hand.

 

There are different types of WAR. Some showing Reyes/Kawasaki almost even, some showing Reyes ahead (but not by as much as you'd think).

 

Keeping in mind that Reyes earns 17 mil or whatever and Kawasaki 400,000... well it's not crazy to ask is Kawasaki + 16 mil somewhere else better then Reyes??

[Stangstag]

Lets not forget that Kawasaki was performing way over his head with the bat. He is NOT even an average hitter.

[Dr. Dinger]

Reyes really needs to be moved to 2B.

 

Wat

 

Reyes is an entirely viable SS. It would completely idiotic to move him unless he starts hemorrhaging runs.

[GeorgiaPeach]

So you're basically saying Reyes and Kawasaki are one of the same because they have similar WAR. Is this real life? ITS NOT YOUR f***ING MONEY

 

True. But you have to admit you wouldn't be happy if the Jays saddled themselves with stupid contracts and then said....we don't have any more money to spend and were still in need of some pieces.

[Dr. Dinger]

I really don't give a s*** about those metrics, like at all. The arm is plus and the range looks solid. His defensive tools are visibly superior to a replacement level scrub like Kawasaki. Unless you can somehow acquire a defensive wizard who can contribute something offensively, it's a bonehead move.

[HERPDERP]

It's insane some sabermetrics whiz kids haven't devised a new metric that best shows the value of each player. And even if there is, it hasn't caught up yet.

 

The past few years have shown just how weak WAR can be, from a guy like Carlos Gomez leading in war this year, or to Ben Zobrist a few years ago (though he still is massively underrated)

[Boxcar]

That's where we disagree. Over a sample of several thousand innings I trust those metrics much more than your, or my, ability to scout defense.

 

You bros should hug it out.

[Boxcar]

It's insane some sabermetrics whiz kids haven't devised a new metric that best shows the value of each player. And even if there is, it hasn't caught up yet.

 

The past few years have shown just how weak WAR can be, from a guy like Carlos Gomez leading in war this year, or to Ben Zobrist a few years ago (though he still is massively underrated)

 

It's truly amazing that people, simultaneously, whine about how inaccurate WAR is, 90% of the time using Zobrist as the poster boy, while also scratching their heads at how many games the Rays win every year.

 

Usually people just credit the Rays' success to high draft picks every year and good pitching.

[connorp]

That's where we disagree. Over a sample of several thousand innings I trust those metrics much more than your, or my, ability to scout defense.

 

Yeah but you wont ever get to compare Reyes to Kawasaki in that way because Kawa sucks and wont ever get that kind of sample size to show. Kawa is terrible and this is the only situation where I think WAR can be stupid when you start having a Reyes vs. Kawa debate with a straight face.

 

As for moving Reyes to 2b.. his bat would play there and it still would be ok deal.. but please God not for Kawa's sake.

[P2F]

It's insane some sabermetrics whiz kids haven't devised a new metric that best shows the value of each player. And even if there is, it hasn't caught up yet.

 

The past few years have shown just how weak WAR can be, from a guy like Carlos Gomez leading in war this year, or to Ben Zobrist a few years ago (though he still is massively underrated)

 

Your username explains all I need to know about this post.

[GeorgiaPeach]

Since 2009 he has -5.4 UZR/150 and -38 DRS, and this year is the 3rd year in a row where his DRS would be in the -15 range over a full season. If that's not hemorrhaging runs, it's really f***ing close. He's well below-average at best and completely abysmal at worst. And he'll be 31 next season, so it will probably get worse.

 

It's a good thing we have these metrics to prove a players worth or lackthereof in this case. It's like when Alomar was outted as a below average 2B.

[G-Snarls]

He has less room to cover. His arm strength and the easier throw will make up for any play that he has to range far to his left. His lack of range might have a lot to do with his unwillingness to dive. I have seen him dive for a baseball once.

 

I'm not sure. Cause Lawrie covers so much of the corner, I don't know that moving Reyes to 2B would help overall that much.

[KSaw]

It's a good thing we have these metrics to prove a players worth or lackthereof in this case. It's like when Alomar was outted as a below average 2B.

 

The flaw is huge and we both know why its flawed. The official scorer decides range and official scorers put a higher expectation on better fielders. The scorer's opinions drive defensive metrics.

[Terminator]

It's common baseball logic that you don't move a player off of shortstop until it becomes absolutely necessary. -5 runs over a year is a perfectly acceptable rate for a player whose bat is so good.

 

I wouldn't move him either. Also, you can see his ankle injury visibility affecting him out there. I'm hoping that is the main reason his defense has slipped and by next year it will be much improved and his defense will bounce back to the 0 to -3 range. That said, these defensive metrics based upon 48 games are very sketchy anyway.

[KSaw]

It's all a mess actually. Apparently Erbie Whitt was a better defensive catcher than Alan Ashby.

[Terminator]

Its very likely not -5 though. I like DRS more than UZR, but -10 is splitting the difference in two. And he'll only get worse.

 

I disagree that he has to get worse. At times, you can see him babying his ankle out there. If that improves his defense could rebound with it. These metrics you're quoting are only 48 games too which is a highly unreliable amount when talking defensive metrics. The past 4 seasons prior to this one he was a -3 to -5 SS and I think he can definitely get back to that level next year. Matter of fact, I think it's more likely to see him in that range than the -10 or worse you are predicting.

[Laika]

UZR/150

 

2010: -5.2

2011: -3.8

2012: -3.3

2013: -16.7 (terribly small sample size + grotesquely broken ankle).

 

Not really any numerical evidence of defensive decline, yet. He's not nearly poor enough at the position that he'd be more valuable at 2B.

 

I don't even think it's a given that he's a better defender at 2B. He's played SS his whole f***ing life, he's probably WAY less comfortable on the other side of second, and you'd be neutering his cannon of an arm by sliding him closer to 1B.

 

The only way it makes sense to slide him over is if you bring in a sure fire plus defensive SS. Those aren't exactly easy to acquire, unless you want to no bat variety, and then you're basically just spinning your tires and wasting energy and you might as well have left Reyes at short and found a 2B.

[Laika]

I'd rather watch him play than bring DRS into the fold. He looks like a fairly average SS (great tools, not amazing instincts). UZR says he's a bit below average, I could buy that. I don't really think he's a butcher.

[Laika]

No love at all for TFB?

 

More information doesn't necessarily mean better conclusions. I've always liked UZR more just because of random things I've read online, on The Book blog etc, comparing the two methods. I don't really pay any attention to DRS, ever. I think it just muddies the water, to be honest.

Edited August 10, 2013 by Laika