Rasmus is underrated

yudarvish · July 12, 2013

Rasmus is currently 6th in WAR (2.6) and 7th in OPS (.799) among CF's in all of MLB. What more does the guy have to do to get praised by the fan base?

Laika · July 12, 2013

Ok, I'll bite.

a) It's pretty hard for someone to strike out 31% of the time and keep producing like he's been producing, for the long term.

His HR/FB seems perhaps a bit unsustainably high, judging from his own career mean (17.6% right now vs. 12.1% career, and 13.2% last year in Toronto). Now, if Colby has indeed figured a little something out, this HR/FB% figure could totally be true talent legit.... it's just a little early to say so.

c) His BABIP seems a little bit lucky right now, judging from his batted ball profile and his career mean BABIP. Insert nearly identical second sentence as in here.

d) He's done this before in Blue (good looking partial season). 2012 Colby had a 120 wRC+ in the first half, and a 38! wRC+ in the second half. That's .259/.328 with 17 HR vs. .176/.238 with a measly 6 round trippers. Right now he's .261/.324 with 16 HR, remarkably similar to his first half last year.

Disclaimer: I really like Colby, as a player and as a person. I think he's a good CF and I think he's an aesthetically pleasing entity in this particular spectator sport. But people are completely justified in withholding their praise. Let's wait and see what Gump brings in the 2nd half

Edited July 12, 2013 by Laika

admin · July 12, 2013

I think everyone is happy with what he has done and hope it continues. But if history repeats itself:

[TABLE]

[TR]

[TD=width: 107, bgcolor: #CCFFFF]Year[/TD]

[TD=width: 107, bgcolor: #CCFFFF][/TD]

[TD=width: 107, bgcolor: #CCFFFF]First Half[/TD]

[TD=width: 107, bgcolor: #CCFFFF][/TD]

[TD=width: 107, bgcolor: #CCFFFF]Second Half[/TD]

[TD=width: 107, bgcolor: #CCFFFF][/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=bgcolor: #CCFFFF][/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #CCFFFF]AVG[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #CCFFFF]OBP[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #CCFFFF]OPS[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #CCFFFF]AVG[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #CCFFFF]OBP[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #CCFFFF]OPS[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2009[/TD]

[TD]0.278[/TD]

[TD]0.329[/TD]

[TD]0.807[/TD]

[TD]0.216[/TD]

[TD]0.278[/TD]

[TD]0.592[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2010[/TD]

[TD]0.284[/TD]

[TD]0.369[/TD]

[TD]0.914[/TD]

[TD]0.265[/TD]

[TD]0.351[/TD]

[TD]0.786[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2011[/TD]

[TD]0.246[/TD]

[TD]0.329[/TD]

[TD]0.742[/TD]

[TD]0.182[/TD]

[TD]0.23[/TD]

[TD]0.574[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2012[/TD]

[TD]0.259[/TD]

[TD]0.328[/TD]

[TD]0.821[/TD]

[TD]0.176[/TD]

[TD]0.238[/TD]

[TD]0.515[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD][/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Average/4[/TD]

[TD]0.26675[/TD]

[TD]0.33875[/TD]

[TD]0.821[/TD]

[TD]0.20975[/TD]

[TD]0.27425[/TD]

[TD]0.61675[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD][/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2013[/TD]

[TD]0.251[/TD]

[TD]0.324[/TD]

[TD]0.799[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

That being said I'm hoping CM has actually done something to him.

Chappy · July 12, 2013

I am a big fan of Colby and I hope he does keep it up through the second half. If he does, his value is going to be quite high and I bet AA will look to extend him.

8D · July 12, 2013

Well it's been said Rasmus kinda of burnt out in the 2nd half last season because

his endurance just wasn't there. Rasmus said he corrected that this offseason so let's see.

The Cats Ass · July 12, 2013

Would have been cheaper to lock him up long term last off-season.

Angrioter · July 12, 2013

Would have been cheaper to lock him up long term last off-season.

We're still on time. Rasmus will collapse in the second half, we all know that.

Rasmus has gas only for 3 months.

HERPDERP · July 12, 2013

Only reason why Rasmus' endurance failed in the 2nd half was because he overworked himself in the cage. The coaching staff and Rasmus acknowledged this and they have corrected it

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/baseball/jays-outfielder-rasmus-happy-to-have-dickey-johnson-on-his-side/article8773782/

"Consistency at the plate is the first order of business in 2013.

Last campaign, Rasmus hit .291 in June but batted just .191 in July, .167 in August and .209 in September.

“This year I’m looking to pace myself a little more,” he explained. “Sometimes I get a little carried away with trying to do too much or when I start struggling, get in the cage and taking more hacks and working on things a little more than I should.

“I’m going to try to take it easy and try to be more consistent throughout instead of just busting it hard at the beginning and kind of falling it off.”

Rasmus also hopes not to let things fester mentally.

“This is a competitive game and I don’t like to lose,” he said. “Sometimes I take that to the extent of overworking myself instead of just knowing that I’m good, get out there and just play the game.”

Angrioter · July 12, 2013

Only reason why Rasmus' endurance failed in the 2nd half was because he overworked himself in the cage. The coaching staff and Rasmus acknowledged this and they have corrected it

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/baseball/jays-outfielder-rasmus-happy-to-have-dickey-johnson-on-his-side/article8773782/

"Consistency at the plate is the first order of business in 2013.

Last campaign, Rasmus hit .291 in June but batted just .191 in July, .167 in August and .209 in September.

“This year I’m looking to pace myself a little more,” he explained. “Sometimes I get a little carried away with trying to do too much or when I start struggling, get in the cage and taking more hacks and working on things a little more than I should.

“I’m going to try to take it easy and try to be more consistent throughout instead of just busting it hard at the beginning and kind of falling it off.”

Rasmus also hopes not to let things fester mentally.

“This is a competitive game and I don’t like to lose,” he said. “Sometimes I take that to the extent of overworking myself instead of just knowing that I’m good, get out there and just play the game.”

That means that Rasmus needs steroids to retain stamina for entire season.....Perfecto, Melky is there for teach him how to use it and make a fake website.

saskjayfan · July 12, 2013

Ok, I'll bite.

a) It's pretty hard for someone to strike out 31% of the time and keep producing like he's been producing, for the long term.

His HR/FB seems perhaps a bit unsustainably high, judging from his own career mean (17.6% right now vs. 12.1% career, and 13.2% last year in Toronto). Now, if Colby has indeed figured a little something out, this HR/FB% figure could totally be true talent legit.... it's just a little early to say so.

c) His BABIP seems a little bit lucky right now, judging from his batted ball profile and his career mean BABIP. Insert nearly identical second sentence as in here.

d) He's done this before in Blue (good looking partial season). 2012 Colby had a 120 wRC+ in the first half, and a 38! wRC+ in the second half. That's .259/.328 with 17 HR vs. .176/.238 with a measly 6 round trippers. Right now he's .261/.324 with 16 HR, remarkably similar to his first half last year.

Disclaimer: I really like Colby, as a player and as a person. I think he's a good CF and I think he's an aesthetically pleasing entity in this particular spectator sport. But people are completely justified in withholding their praise. Let's wait and see what Gump brings in the 2nd half

Colby was striking out over 40% of the time earlier in the year. He's struck out 18% of the time in his last 12 games. He's walking a bit more of late as well. The two go hand in hand. Is Colby figuring things out. It would appear so, but it could just be a hot streak. He's broken down the second half of the season fairly consistently. Does he physically break down, mentally break down? What's the reason? We're 5 games into the second half so far. Here's to hoping he doesn't break down in the second half this year. Colby is still only 26 years old. The season is long and gruelling and it can take time to learn how to physically and mentally tackle a 162 game schedule.

Angrioter · July 12, 2013

Colby was striking out over 40% of the time earlier in the year. He's struck out 18% of the time in his last 12 games. He's walking a bit more of late as well. The two go hand in hand. Is Colby figuring things out. It would appear so, but it could just be a hot streak. He's broken down the second half of the season fairly consistently. Does he physically break down, mentally break down? What's the reason? We're 5 games into the second half so far. Here's to hoping he doesn't break down in the second half this year. Colby is still only 26 years old. The season is long and gruelling and it can take time to learn how to physically and mentally tackle a 162 game schedule.

Delmon Young is 27

DustyBaker · July 12, 2013

Delmon Young is 27

Hitters generally peak in their late 20's

Edit: That was based on memory, but on second inspection, it appears they generally peak 26-27...

Angrioter · July 12, 2013

Hitters generally peak in their late 20's

26-28

It's time that Rasmus produce to their ability for a full year.

DustyBaker · July 12, 2013

26-28
It's time that Rasmus produce to their ability for a full year.

Absolutely agree. Lets just hope as hes rounding into his peak years, it translates to a full year of productivity. A ~5 WAR player would be a preeeetty great addition moving forward.

G-Snarls · July 12, 2013

Well it's been said Rasmus kinda of burnt out in the 2nd half last season because
his endurance just wasn't there. Rasmus said he corrected that this offseason so let's see.

He's big and he's only 26 years old

What kind of excuse is endurance???

G-Snarls · July 12, 2013

I'm just glad he's become an above average player, and I'm very happy we kept him. Cause Gose is probably never going to be that.

I like him a lot. He'll never get the same big fan reactions that Reyes/Bautista/Kawasaki do because he's so unassuming and quiet.

sachmo55 · July 12, 2013

Ok, I'll bite.

a) It's pretty hard for someone to strike out 31% of the time and keep producing like he's been producing, for the long term.

His HR/FB seems perhaps a bit unsustainably high, judging from his own career mean (17.6% right now vs. 12.1% career, and 13.2% last year in Toronto). Now, if Colby has indeed figured a little something out, this HR/FB% figure could totally be true talent legit.... it's just a little early to say so.

c) His BABIP seems a little bit lucky right now, judging from his batted ball profile and his career mean BABIP. Insert nearly identical second sentence as in here.

d) He's done this before in Blue (good looking partial season). 2012 Colby had a 120 wRC+ in the first half, and a 38! wRC+ in the second half. That's .259/.328 with 17 HR vs. .176/.238 with a measly 6 round trippers. Right now he's .261/.324 with 16 HR, remarkably similar to his first half last year.

Disclaimer: I really like Colby, as a player and as a person. I think he's a good CF and I think he's an aesthetically pleasing entity in this particular spectator sport. But people are completely justified in withholding their praise. Let's wait and see what Gump brings in the 2nd half

Im sure Im kind of data mining here, but one trend that Rasmus seemed to have in the past is that he tends to get really swing happy in June and it contiues till the the end of august (and pitchers tend to tear him apart in July and August). This year he's done a lot better of a job of holding a solid walk rate in june and july thus far.

Im hoping this is the result of a conscious effort.

Arkadium · July 12, 2013

a) It's pretty hard for someone to strike out 31% of the time and keep producing like he's been producing, for the long term.

I don't know why you would say something like this? Baseball is filled with guys like this... all-in approach every AB, strike out a lot but hit for high power... i.e. Ryan Howard, Carlos Pena, Mark Reynolds, Chris Young..... actually Chris Young is nearly identical career offensive numbers (+Speed). In any case, his strike-outs should come down a little, which they have been... hence the improved offensive output lately.

TheEndIsNigh · July 12, 2013

He's big and he's only 26 years old

What kind of excuse is endurance???

Yeah I agree, I was thinking the same thing. Guy makes millions to play baseball, is 26 years old, if endurance is an issue get this guy off the roster lol.

TheHurl · July 12, 2013

He's struck out 18% of the time in his last 12 games. He's walking a bit more of late as well. The two go hand in hand. Is Colby figuring things out. It would appear so.

Did we learn nothing from Lind, small sample sizes don't necessarily mean changes in approach.

The fact remains about Rasmus is that he's about to enter his making real money portion of his career. Guys who are putting up similar numbers are getting $13M+ a year. Colby will probably make $8M next year. Has he shown the consistency to be worth locking him up at this price? Pretty much if they aren't locking up Colby at a team friendly deal right now we have to consider that he'll be making FA money by 2015 and I think he'll want to get paid like the top 7 CF that he's showing right now.

Caper · July 12, 2013

Did we learn nothing from Lind, small sample sizes don't necessarily mean changes in approach.

The fact remains about Rasmus is that he's about to enter his making real money portion of his career. Guys who are putting up similar numbers are getting $13M+ a year. Colby will probably make $8M next year. Has he shown the consistency to be worth locking him up at this price? Pretty much if they aren't locking up Colby at a team friendly deal right now we have to consider that he'll be making FA money by 2015 and I think he'll want to get paid like the top 7 CF that he's showing right now.

4 years 40 million?

Chappy · July 12, 2013

4 years 40 million?

Probably 4/50 with a team option or two.

G-Snarls · July 12, 2013

Would do in a heartbeat.

Yep. And I'd be surprised if Colby (and Tony) balked. Seems like a fair deal for both sides. And he seems to like it here.

Chappy · July 12, 2013

I like Colby, but this makes me pretty uncomfortable. It's not like we really have a choice though. Someone has to play center.

I think it's fair. If Colby plays like this through the contract we win big, if he regresses we still could break even. I think the reward is higher than the risk if they could get him on a deal like this.

8D · July 12, 2013

I think Rasmus is more of a late bloomer. I can totally see him taking things

to a new level a few years down the line putting up his career bests.

Stangstag · July 12, 2013

Yeah, there's just something about him that seems... off. I dunno, Im half expecting him to tank the 2nd half.

I really hope he doesn't. I love watching him and I hope he does well.

GNick · July 14, 2013

Yeah, there's just something about him that seems... off. I dunno, Im half expecting him to tank the 2nd half.

What Rasmus did last year. I'll offer 1 year contract, use financial incentive to motivate. Everybody we locked up long term early they immediately tanked ie. Escobar 2011 season, Romero, Morrow, Happ, Lind, Hill, Rios. Mistake to lock up players too early, he's not free agent until 2015

Edited July 14, 2013 by GNick
grammar error

Howard Roark · July 14, 2013

He's been everything that we could ask for this year, one of the few bright spots for the club. He's never going to hit .300 or post a high OBP methinks, but he gives you well above average defence and power in centre, and he'll provide great D in one of the corner outfield spots in 3 years or so when he loses a step or two. Hopefully Gose can get his s*** together by that point and take over there by then.

DustyBaker · July 15, 2013

For what its worth, Colby currently ranks 21st (3.5) in the league on the WAR leaderboard- ahead of such notables as Bautista,Beltre and Ortiz. He also only sits .2 behind Votto, Cano and Pedroia. He holds a sizable lead in Chin-beards though.

HERPDERP · July 15, 2013

You sign Colby and you'll have to put Gose on suicide watch.

I mean, the guy just changed after he didn't make the team!

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