Offseason moves accumulated WAR - 1/4 season mark

[Deadpool]

What I find shocking is that Wells ,Overbay & Jayson Nix are productive players for the Yankees.

 

.259/.297/.475 for Overbay

.232/.310/.286 for Nix

 

Not productive.

[Tuco]

This is a very interesting issue. It's just not Hill & Johnson, but what about Alex Rios,?

 

Now, if Rios had stayed, the Jays would not have given Bautista a chance to play every day in August-September 2009. We know how that turned out.

 

Aaron Hill's was comeback player of the year in 2009 yet regressed in 2010 & 2011. He had an excellent 2012 in Arizona.

 

What I find shocking is that Wells ,Overbay & Jayson Nix are productive players for the Yankees.

 

I ddoubt AA gets fired till the end of 2015 when most of the team's contracts expire.

 

This organization has a massive issue with developing not only prospects but big league players also.

 

I mentioned a few days ago but its like a tier system. You have Best case scenario - Middle ground - Worst case scenario

 

Good organizations like NY, TB, STL etc bring is all types of players and more often then not they get at least middle ground and quite often best case scenario.

 

The Jays bring in players/prospects and most often get middle ground and very regularly worst case scenario.

 

There is something vastly wrong systemically with how we teach the game and how we develop our prospects. We just employed a hitting coach the past few seasons who blatantly came out and said he thinks OBP is useless. We continually make boneheaded mistakes game in game out, we have players with undeserved ego's and our pitching routinely gets injured. The losing is tough but what bothers me most is how this team plays and is constructed. We actually dont even look like a baseball team moreso just a team filled with a bunch of athletes and egomaniacs. The roster is filled with guys who are either flat out dumb (Lawrie, Davis, Lind), arrogant (JPA, Bautista, Lawrie) or guys who look like they dont even give a damn (Rasmus, Lind). This might be passable if you had a great player who was a fantastic lead dog and leader but we dont. The Jays have basically set up a organization thats similar to a workplace where you can show up late, jerkoff during workhours, do a underwhelming job and there will be no punishment and you might even get a promotion or raise. There is no culture whatsoever of being a pro or expectation of excellance and working hard everyday. AA looks like the type who might be decent being a assistant GM but not someone you want running the franchise and making the big decisions.

 

Quite honestly until things change higher up this team is going to continue to struggle. The fact that we are in "win now" mode and are running a catcher out everyday that is arguably the worst defensive catcher in the league says all you need to know about this organizations flawed approach.

[ElNik2013]

AA tried to take a shortcut to the finish line, but instead it was a shortcut to nowhere. He did nothing in the 2011/12 offseason so he tried to make up for it by doing dumb things this past offseason, it ain't working out. The team needed starting pitching, but AA refused to address it via FA and instead did it by trading away a big chunk of the farm for risky and aging, expensive pitchers which is the complete opposite of what the plan was supposed to be.

[Smokey]

You've used that Narrative a lot, but going into 2012 this was a team that a lot of us predicted would win somewhere between 80-85 games that collapsed. The jays of 2012 was not a 73-win team in talent. Had we kept the jays of last season, with a few tweaks, would probably be projected to be a 77 to 80 win. We were an average team, that added a lot of talent, but didn't compensate with nearly enough depth.

 

The team's record in 2012 is really secondary to the fact that there was a lot of unanswered questions surrounding the club... The rotation only had one semi-reliable starter in Morrow.. a terrible catcher... a questionable Lind at DH... No one at 2B... a terrible season for Escobar at SS... an unproven 3B and CF and even Bautista was not a sure bet to return to what he was before the wrist injury.

 

This definitely didn't scream like a team that needed to push all its chips in.

 

The Miami deal might have made some sense but to majorly overpay for Dickey, without having some of those questions answered, and with the notion that "he'll take us over that top" was preposterous and all those who were blind to this fact at the time should hold their heads down in shame!!!

[ElNik2013]

The team's record in 2012 is really secondary to the fact that there was a lot of unanswered questions surrounding the club... The rotation only had one semi-reliable starter in Morrow.. a terrible catcher... a questionable Lind at DH... No one at 2B... a terrible season for Escobar at SS... an unproven 3B and CF and even Bautista was not a sure bet to return to what he was before the wrist injury.

 

This definitely didn't scream like a team that needed to push all its chips in.

 

The Miami deal might have made some sense but to majorly overpay for Dickey, without having some of those questions answered, and with the notion that "he'll take us over that top" was preposterous and all those who were blind to this fact at the time should hold their heads down in shame!!!

 

 

Well said. A big assumption was made by AA after the Marlins trade that this was now a contending team and that Dickey would push it over the top. I said at the time that it didn't make sense to go all in without knowing what team you had and that if you're going to overpay the way they did for an ace, you do it for a younger guy.

[Tuco]

The biggest worry is why has Rasmus not been able to take the next step like the Jays predicted when he was aquired. Heck can we even get him to perform like he did in 2011 with STL?

 

What has happened to Lawrie? He came up and basically sprayed the ball all over the field and showed amazing pitch recognition. Now he swings at basically anything and doesnt drive the ball the other way with the same authority he used too.

 

How did Romero go from good starter to total after thought with little chance to have MLB career going forward?

 

Why did Kelly Johnson suck so bad with us but is playing so well with the Rays?

 

Why was ARZ able to get Hill fixed and right so quickly after being aquired?

 

Theres something seriouly wrong with this teams coaching and ability to develop players.

[ElNik2013]

Big contrast series coming up Rays, under whom struggling players thrive, vs Jays, where good players go bad.

[BlueJayWay]

The biggest worry is why has Rasmus not been able to take the next step like the Jays predicted when he was aquired. Heck can we even get him to perform like he did in 2011 with STL?

 

What has happened to Lawrie? He came up and basically sprayed the ball all over the field and showed amazing pitch recognition. Now he swings at basically anything and doesnt drive the ball the other way with the same authority he used too.

 

How did Romero go from good starter to total after thought with little chance to have MLB career going forward?

 

Why did Kelly Johnson suck so bad with us but is playing so well with the Rays?

 

Why was ARZ able to get Hill fixed and right so quickly after being aquired?

 

Theres something seriouly wrong with this teams coaching and ability to develop players.

Yeah. Lawrie is the big one for me. He looks like a totally different hitter now. When he came up he could drive the ball, and you couldn't get a fastball by him. Now it seems he's fighting pitches off all the time. Even fastballs in hitter counts he's fouling off or swinging through. I said in the other thread it seems he's regressed as a hitter, slowly, ever since he came up. I dunno.

 

The Jays inability to draft & develop good players is really hurting them.

[oakville69]

Do you have a spreadsheet or list of the WAR's differences ?

 

So, it's Melky +Reyes+Izturis+Bonifacio+Dickey +Josh Johnson+ Blanco +Buerhle as WAR to the Jays

 

& subtract Escobar,Johnson,Mathis , Hecheverria to other teams.

 

On paper it should be a virtually guaranteed 8-10 WAR for the Jays.

Edited May 19, 2013 by oakville69
forgot to add players

[Olerud363]

Melky has been replacement-level and Dickey is pitching to a 4.83 ERA. Both have been very, very disappointing.

 

It's ultimate craziness to say Melky and Dickey have been good.

 

A guy with a 5.00 era and a .280 left fielder with 1 homer???

 

Take Ichiro... age him until he's almost 40 and hits .280 instead of .330 and the mariners give him away for nothing. There you have 2013 Melky. That's not good.

 

For both Dickey and Melky there are signs they might turn it aorund. But that doesn't make what they've done so far "good".

[Olerud363]

Yeah. Lawrie is the big one for me. He looks like a totally different hitter now. When he came up he could drive the ball, and you couldn't get a fastball by him. Now it seems he's fighting pitches off all the time. Even fastballs in hitter counts he's fouling off or swinging through. I said in the other thread it seems he's regressed as a hitter, slowly, ever since he came up. I dunno.

 

The Jays inability to draft & develop good players is really hurting them.

 

Yeah. It's so sad. Lawrie is just another bad young player, like Travis Snider. It's depressing. He really looks horrible.

[Olerud363]

This organization has a massive issue with developing not only prospects but big league players also.

 

I mentioned a few days ago but its like a tier system. You have Best case scenario - Middle ground - Worst case scenario

 

Good organizations like NY, TB, STL etc bring is all types of players and more often then not they get at least middle ground and quite often best case scenario.

 

The Jays bring in players/prospects and most often get middle ground and very regularly worst case scenario.

 

There is something vastly wrong systemically with how we teach the game and how we develop our prospects. We just employed a hitting coach the past few seasons who blatantly came out and said he thinks OBP is useless. We continually make boneheaded mistakes game in game out, we have players with undeserved ego's and our pitching routinely gets injured. The losing is tough but what bothers me most is how this team plays and is constructed. We actually dont even look like a baseball team moreso just a team filled with a bunch of athletes and egomaniacs. The roster is filled with guys who are either flat out dumb (Lawrie, Davis, Lind), arrogant (JPA, Bautista, Lawrie) or guys who look like they dont even give a damn (Rasmus, Lind). This might be passable if you had a great player who was a fantastic lead dog and leader but we dont. The Jays have basically set up a organization thats similar to a workplace where you can show up late, jerkoff during workhours, do a underwhelming job and there will be no punishment and you might even get a promotion or raise. There is no culture whatsoever of being a pro or expectation of excellance and working hard everyday. AA looks like the type who might be decent being a assistant GM but not someone you want running the franchise and making the big decisions.

 

Quite honestly until things change higher up this team is going to continue to struggle. The fact that we are in "win now" mode and are running a catcher out everyday that is arguably the worst defensive catcher in the league says all you need to know about this organizations flawed approach.

 

Great post. The problems run deep.

[oakville69]

Fair point

 

My expectations of the new players have been lowered so much since April 2nd, that anyone who stays off the DL gets a passing grade. Melky is an upgrade over any LF the Jays have had in the past few years.

 

Dickey is able to stay off the DL & has pitched a few good games. I saw him pitch at the home opener. I blame JPA for his poor performance at the opener. I went to the game he pitched against the Mariners. That was a horrible pitching performance but the team didn't even know how many outs there were in the 5th or 6th inning.

 

Dickey & Melky have been the two best performers of the new players. Jose Reyes had a great 10 games, but his injury was very frustrating

Edited May 20, 2013 by oakville69

[Tuco]

Yeah. Lawrie is the big one for me. He looks like a totally different hitter now. When he came up he could drive the ball, and you couldn't get a fastball by him. Now it seems he's fighting pitches off all the time. Even fastballs in hitter counts he's fouling off or swinging through. I said in the other thread it seems he's regressed as a hitter, slowly, ever since he came up. I dunno.

 

The Jays inability to draft & develop good players is really hurting them.

 

Whats worse is they went with a draft philosophy of drafting a truckload of athletes with the thought they could turn them into good baseball players.

 

They have basically neglected the hit tool all together the past few years and seem obsessed with Power and Speed.

[BlueJayWay]

Whats worse is they went with a draft philosophy of drafting a truckload of athletes with the thought they could turn them into good baseball players.

 

They have basically neglected the hit tool all together the past few years and seem obsessed with Power and Speed.

AA did say that he was a "sucker" for athletes. It doesn't seem to matter much whether they can play baseball or not.

[oakville69]

Great post. The problems run deep.

 

Hayhurst made a similar point on baseball central on Friday. He said the Jays bring up their prospects too early . He mentioned Hutchison as a case study. Hayhurst or Blair said that the Orioles are excellent at bringing up their prospects with hot hands. He said AA should bring up Negrych & or Thole while they are hot.

 

I think Rogers has realized the advantages of having a competitive team on paper, so are willing to let AA spend 125 million per year for the next couple of years.

 

So far, this year is a mess, but hopefully the team will recover for 2014.

[Boxcar]

I was thinking of doing something like this, more to compare the Jays' offseason additions with the Rays and then the payroll impact but I'm way too lazy. Anyway, can't discount Reyes or JJ because those guys were both injury risks from the start, so it's fair to criticize our pea brained GM for not taking that into account.

[oakville69]

I would love to have an organizational audit done of the Blue Jays training,scouting,development program from someone who had experience building a team.

 

How is it that the Tampa Bay Rays once again have a strong team with David Price on the DL, virtually no offence etc...

 

Escobar was run out of town because of a eye patch, that no one noticed, even his supposed babysitter, Omar Visquel. It drives me nuts that AA always has a couple of roster spots open for "clubhouse leaders" who can't perform on the field, yet we still have players making dumb mistakes.

 

Why can't Derosa tell Jose Bautista to stop chirping at every umpire? Perhaps Bautista would just laugh at Derosa, but if you are going to get "clubhouse leaders" then make sure they have enough credibility to sort out players who make dumb mistakes.

[oakville69]

I was thinking of doing something like this, more to compare the Jays' offseason additions with the Rays and then the payroll impact but I'm way too lazy. Anyway, can't discount Reyes or JJ because those guys were both injury risks from the start, so it's fair to criticize our pea brained GM for not taking that into account.

 

This a potential blind spot with AA. He acquired 2 players with All Star potential. It seemed logical at the time that Johnson would be motivated to have a great 2013, so he could get a long term contract. Now he's out till June. He pitched poorly in April anyway.

 

Reyes is an All Star but takes a chance at stealing a base when the team is up 4 runs. Now he's gone till July.

 

AA gets a "discount" because the players have a history of getting injured.

[Olerud363]

Fair point

 

My expectations of the new players have been lowered so much since April 2nd, that anyone who stays off the DL gets a passing grade. Melky is an upgrade over any LF the Jays have had in the past few years.

 

Dickey is able to stay off the DL & has pitched a few good games. I saw him pitch at the home opener. I blame JPA for his poor performance at the opener. I went to the game he pitched against the Mariners. That was a horrible pitching performance but the team didn't even know how many outs there were in the 5th or 6th inning.

 

Dickey & Melky have been the two best performers of the new players. Jose Reyes had a great 10 games, but his injury was very frustrating

 

I know what you mean. Just the fact they haven't totally tanked seems like a positive. Both are in position to have good seasons. Unlike Lawrie or Boni...

[GD]

Perhaps Bautista would just laugh at Derosa, but if you are going to get "clubhouse leaders" then make sure they have enough credibility to sort out players who make dumb mistakes.

 

+1000000000000000, this was my point the entire offseason; your clubhouse leaders should be your best players, like Pedroia in Boston, not random scrubs like Derosa.

[ElNik2013]

Not that he'll be an allstar, but Yan Gomes is apparently good enough to be Carlos Santana's back up in Cleveland...would it really surprise anyone if he turned out to be a better defensive catcher than JPA? Why in the world do you have to give up not only Mike Aviles, but throw in Yan Gomes for Esmil Rogers?

 

I'd LOL if it wasn't so sad.

[Boxcar]

Sign Luke Scott (1/2) = 0.5 WAR

Sign Kelly Johnson (1/2.45) = 0.9 WAR

Sign James Loney (1/2) = 1.4 WAR

Sign Roberto Hernandez (1/3.25) = 0 WAR

 

Total free agency = $9.7 million for 2013, all contracts expire after 2013. Total value accumulated so far = 2.8 WAR = $22.4 million value at $8 million per WAR.

 

Trades

 

Yunel Escobar (3/15) = for Derek Dietrich

Wil Myers, Mike Montgomery, Jake Odorizzi, Patrick Leonard for James Shields (2/21), Wade Davis (2/7.6 + options) and Elliot Johnson

 

Not only did they add more WAR for less money at the big league level, they didn't compromise their depth in the minors. Actually, they added to it. They have a great rotation right now and I just saw a poll they had on the TB broadcast where they asked which Durham starter would be in the rotation next year: Jake Odorizzi, Chris Archer, Alex Colome and Alex Torres. Surprisingly, there was no option for a 41 year old never-has-been.

 

God I love the Rays.

[Tuco]

The Dickey trade was just brutal. It's bad enough what we gave up for the guy but I guess even trying hard to see it glass half full you could say "well he will be a good pitcher for us and we should make the playoffs".

 

Basically worst case scenario has happened. Dickey doesnt look like he can pitch in this division and our team sucks. The sad thing is Dickey is only going to get older and decline and the prospects we gave up havent even started to play ML ball yet. Even if the prospects bust, when they were traded they had a set value and should have either been kept and further matured or used in a deal to aquire a young pitcher with less question marks.

[mitchf]

The Dickey trade was just brutal. It's bad enough what we gave up for the guy but I guess even trying hard to see it glass half full you could say "well he will be a good pitcher for us and we should make the playoffs".

 

Basically worst case scenario has happened. Dickey doesnt look like he can pitch in this division and our team sucks. The sad thing is Dickey is only going to get older and decline and the prospects we gave up havent even started to play ML ball yet. Even if the prospects bust, when they were traded they had a set value and should have either been kept and further matured or used in a deal to aquire a young pitcher with less question marks.

My favorite part of this trade is that even the most casual fan couldn't believe we gave up d'Arnaud.

 

Here we are expecting to get back a prospect with Dickey and it turns out Alex is trying to add Syndergaard. It was unbelievable and our GM should be fired for "worst case scenario" happening, like you said.

 

EDIT: I should add how infuriating it is that while all of Toronto roasts Burke and Colangelo, many of them praise AA and swear by the moves he makes. He's the worst of the three as far as I'm concerned and that's not easy to say.

[mitchf]

Syndergaard: 8GS, 2.62 ERA, 44.2IP, 42H, 13BB, 48K

That's worse than I expected, which is saying something.

[Tuco]

My favorite part of this trade is that even the most casual fan couldn't believe we gave up d'Arnaud.

 

Here we are expecting to get back a prospect with Dickey and it turns out Alex is trying to add Syndergaard. It was unbelievable and our GM should be fired for "worst case scenario" happening, like you said.

 

EDIT: I should add how infuriating it is that while all of Toronto roasts Burke and Colangelo, many of them praise AA and swear by the moves he makes. He's the worst of the three as far as I'm concerned and that's not easy to say.

 

There's no way hes worse then Colangelo.

I know it would have been extremely unpopular but we would have be better off just signed Lohse and keeping our prospects.

[mitchf]

There's no way hes worse then Colangelo.

I know it would have been extremely unpopular but we would have be better off just signed Lohse and keeping our prospects.

Haha, be careful when you say that.

 

Colangelo threw away Hibbert, signed some terrible players, but NEVER would he have depleted his youth for a bunch of guys that had health concerns and weren't exactly sure bets.

 

Where's our Derozan, Jonas, Ross, Amir and Gay. These guys are all on their way up because of the ability for the Raptors to develop, meanwhile we're seeing any player that AA had a part in developing get worse. Every. Single. Player.

[Deadpool]

There's no way hes worse then Colangelo.

I know it would have been extremely unpopular but we would have be better off just signed Lohse and keeping our prospects.

 

Would have been a VERY popular move to get Darvish...

[Nox]

Hypothetical Question:

 

How many losses would get The Fat Greek fired after this season?

 

I know most of us, including myself, believe he has this year AND next to make the playoffs before the axe falling, but is there a point at which this becomes too embarrassing to come back from? 90 losses? 95? 100?