Travis Snider Pirate perfomance thread

[KSaw]

I think it's been realized that there is zero point to having that many area scouts and such. We all fell for it, it sounded great that no player was being overlooked. It did provide us with some late steals too...however we didn't sign them. Having so many of our 2009 to 2011 late picks move up to a first few rounds is impressive but it did nothing to help the club. With today's limits on late picks it's going to be even harder than ever to get any steal signed. And college players it's just known for late steals unless there were injury or character issues (maybe a guy somewhere who changes from pitcher to hitter). Now it's just a waste of resources and far too many opinions (just like having so many former GMs on the staff). Unless you are scouting non traditional baseball areas and finding someone that no one is even looking at, it's just not worth it to hire more scouts than anyone else.

 

Last year he moved a bunch of his scouts to professional scouting which is just stupid in today's era of stats and video, but this is what happens when you hire friends of friends, it's tough to get rid of them

 

There really isn't a ton of video for AA games and lower and even AAA video often comes with awful camera angles. There are hidden gems and hidden useful pieces in every system and you need to scout to identify them. A good scout can do something any graph can't and that's spot a talented player who has an identifiable and correctable flaw. That is a buy low player with upside (if the scout is correct).

 

Ever wonder why MLB teams send scouts to watch players in person? I mean every MLB game has great TV exposure. There are plenty of stats too. You have to see him up close and live to identify the small mechanical things. The Dodgers scouted Buerhle in his awful Boston start a few weeks back. They've seen him pitch. They know him well. What they didnt know is whether he was performing poorly because of something slight and correctable or if he'd lost it. You need pro scouts.

[Nox]

You need pro scouts.

 

Not in the majors you sure as f*** don't.

 

They're demonstrably worse than the "Marcels".

 

Scouting above A+ is an unfathomable waste of resources.

[KSaw]

Not in the majors you sure as f*** don't.

 

They're demonstrably worse than the "Marcels".

 

Scouting above A+ is an unfathomable waste of resources.

 

So every MLB club is doing it wrong? Even Oakland and Beane have MLB scouts.

[GD]

So every MLB club is doing it wrong? Even Oakland and Beane have MLB scouts.

 

That's probably just a minor check in, not a full fledged evaluation.

[Nox]

That's probably just a minor check in, not a full fledged evaluation.

 

Exactly. To check in, cross check etc is obviously fine. But to have this drive evaluations at the MLB level is f***ing madness.

[KSaw]

Huh? What's a minor check in? If you're watching a game close up and live, you can evaluate a great deal from first step, pitch movement, hitters handling movement, quickness that could be in question due to a lingering injury, routes on fly balls, time down the first base line, distance covered and how quickly when fielding a ground ball and more. Advanced scouts evaluate in detail what is currently going on with their next opponent.

 

All the stats in the world won't tell you that player XYZ is in a short term slump due to (fill in blank) unless you spot it. Then you can attack that weakness. No video or stats from a week or month prior will tell you how healthy player ABC, you might want to trade for, is that day. Can he help your stretch run playoff race or not? Is a flaw correctable? Is a guy moving slower than he does historically? It's big business and information is very valuable.

[GD]

Huh? What's a minor check in? If you're watching a game close up and live, you can evaluate a great deal from first step, pitch movement, hitters handling movement, quickness that could be in question due to a lingering injury, routes on fly balls, time down the first base line, distance covered and how quickly when fielding a ground ball and more. Advanced scouts evaluate in detail what is currently going on with their next opponent.

 

All the stats in the world won't tell you that player XYZ is in a short term slump due to (fill in blank) unless you spot it. Then you can attack that weakness. No video or stats from a week or month prior will tell you how healthy player ABC, you might want to trade for, is that day. Can he help your stretch run playoff race or not? Is a flaw correctable? Is a guy moving slower than he does historically? It's big business and information is very valuable.

 

A minor check in is making sure there's nothing wrong with him physically, etc- YAY JOEY BATS - just due diligence so to speak. That's useful, yes.

 

ALL the stats? You sure about that? Are you really sure, Kirk? Stats/bio-mechanics or whatever can tell you why, coaches fix it. Nothing to do with scouts.

[KSaw]

I think that perhaps you have a different idea of what MLB scouts do and what their role is. They fill in the blanks. Obviously stats and video paint much of the picture.

[KSaw]

A minor check in is making sure there's nothing wrong with him physically, etc- YAY JOEY BATS - just due diligence so to speak. That's useful, yes.

 

ALL the stats? You sure about that? Are you really sure, Kirk? Stats/bio-mechanics or whatever can tell you why, coaches fix it. Nothing to do with scouts.

 

I think that you're missing my point. A minor check in? I assure you that scouts are doing a ton of work during a game. The primary purpose of the scouting trip may be to check on a player's health, like you mentioned but resources would never be wasted on merely doing a simple check in. That would be a waste of resources.

[GD]

I think that you're missing my point. A minor check in? I assure you that scouts are doing a ton of work during a game. The primary purpose of the scouting trip may be to check on a player's health, like you mentioned but resources would never be wasted on merely doing a simple check in. That would be a waste of resources.

 

No, a major waste of resources is sending warm bodies to go evaluate a player based on anecdotal evidence when you have a set of information that already gives you the answers to what you want to know.

 

I think you're missing MY point.

[KSaw]

And you're missing mine. That's not what they do. They are there to evaluate the short term here and now today stuff. It's not anecdotal to time speed of actions. It's detail. How players are reacting to previous injuries, how well they are currently seeing what kinds of pitches is a matter of observing and charting and using a stop watch. It's not watching and coming back and reporting who's hot.

[GD]

And you're missing mine. That's not what they do. They are there to evaluate the short term here and now today stuff. It's not anecdotal to time speed of actions. It's detail. How players are reacting to previous injuries, how well they are currently seeing what kinds of pitches is a matter of observing and charting and using a stop watch. It's not watching and coming back and reporting who's hot.

 

"short term here and now today stuff." Verrrrrrrrry specific.

 

Speed of actions requires multiple scouts being sent out? Can that not be timed more efficiently?

 

Lol actually I'm not doing this. Sigh. Believe the org narratives you want to but it's a huge waste of resources.

[TheHurl]

I've sat with enough scouts through games. If they are looking for details they might want to stop after beer 5.

[Arkadium]

Haha @ this thread... spans multiple web domains and shows no signs of dying!

[KSaw]

I've sat with enough scouts through games. If they are looking for details they might want to stop after beer 5.

 

And that's valid. Some of them do pound them back. That said, if its not an advance scout and is someone there to watch a potential trade target, the job is pretty simple. It's one guy to watch. And if its a relief pitcher the job is a joke but still needs to get done. Rightly or wrongly, MLB teams generally only trust their own RADAR gun too. Call it silly, and a few of you just did, but teams will at times just send a guy to use the gun all game because they don't trust the stadium gun that also ends up on the TV broadcast. All teams do this-- all of them.

[TheHurl]

Yes, teams even have a legitimate gun at their own home games. I still 100% believe it's done in most organizations because that's the way it's always been done. It's truly unnecessary waste of money. Of course there are occasional things you see live that you don't pick up on tape or even the occasional thing you might want to note to look closer at on tape but there is so much more to that (like the player would have be available, and something the original team isn't seeing). I'm not joking when I say that I'd rather have people scouting 16 year old kids in Netherlands, Australia and Asia than 1 watching Nats games with his buddies.

[oakville69]

Did you read or hear much about Jeff Blair's book Full Count?? I read a review on the Drunk Blue Jays site that made it sound like the book is about how AA has "saved" the franchise and brought the glory days back.

 

If current trends continue I wonder if Blair will acknowledge what has actually happened...

 

I bought the book & just started reading it. if I read the last the pages, it seems that Blair was trying to capitalize on the Jays Hype.

 

What's interesting this year is that the Dodgers, Angels & Jays are struggling despite having excellent lineups on paper. What would the Jays record be with a healthy Reyes & Josh Johnson??

[Tuco]

I bought the book & just started reading it. if I read the last the pages, it seems that Blair was trying to capitalize on the Jays Hype.

 

What's interesting this year is that the Dodgers, Angels & Jays are struggling despite having excellent lineups on paper. What would the Jays record be with a healthy Reyes & Josh Johnson??

 

I dont think all that much better. I'm guessing like maybe 4-5 games under .500 instead of 8.

[G-Snarls]

I dont think all that much better. I'm guessing like maybe 4-5 games under .500 instead of 8.

 

That difference could be enough to matter come mid September

 

Could be the difference between a WC spot and nada

[Nox]

Huh? What's a minor check in? If you're watching a game close up and live, you can evaluate a great deal from first step

 

Human beings cannot do this. Physically, they can not do this.

 

Almost 100% of the time the "reaction time/instincts" grade a scout puts on a player is a combination of their hands and raw athleticism as these are much easier to evaluate. It's about as well defined case of attribute substitution as you'll ever find (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attribute_substitution).

 

Scouts cannot grade reaction time and therefore they cannot grade range. And since range is far and away the most important factor in a player's ability to create outs defensively, defensive scouting reports are, at best, useless. At worst, harmful and drive bad decisions.

 

, pitch movement,

 

Intellectual dishonesty at it's best. Do you really think a human being can track the path of a pitch better than automated systems like PitchFX, Trackman et al? This can't actually be what you think.

 

As far as the injury stuff is concerned, how on Earth do you figure that something in this realm will show up in real life but not on video? Explain this to me now.

 

And keep in mind, you're making the laughable mistake in thinking that MLB clubs only have the video provided by broadcasts. That's obviously not true and they have hours and hours of footage from multiple cameras for each game.

 

All the stats in the world won't tell you that player XYZ is in a short term slump due to (fill in blank) unless you spot it.

 

More ********.

 

You're being completely fooled by randomness. We don't need some low IQ, half in the bag idiot who's fighting off senility on one hand crafting up narratives as to why a player might be 1 for his last 10 in the other. There is literally no explanation required. Again, if it was something obvious, it would most definitely show up on video.

[GD]

Thanks, Nox, for making the argument I was too lazy to make lol.

 

I dont think all that much better. I'm guessing like maybe 4-5 games under .500 instead of 8.

 

That would actually be huge.

[o2cui2i]

Yes, teams even have a legitimate gun at their own home games. I still 100% believe it's done in most organizations because that's the way it's always been done. It's truly unnecessary waste of money. Of course there are occasional things you see live that you don't pick up on tape or even the occasional thing you might want to note to look closer at on tape but there is so much more to that (like the player would have be available, and something the original team isn't seeing). I'm not joking when I say that I'd rather have people scouting 16 year old kids in Netherlands, Australia and Asia than 1 watching Nats games with his buddies.

 

the only things that scouts could tell a team, but wont because it would take up too much of their useless lives, would be things like what time a player shows up every day, what kind of an effort does he put in when he thinks no one is looking, if he's an ass or a guy who wants to learn. you could learn more hiding in the tunnels during practice than you do at games. everything at games is on tape and can be broken down into the smallest bits and pieces. the unknown is the kind of person they are and personality does matter.

 

the present jays have some guys with lots of talent, but the mental ability of a 4 year old. the jays scouts should have seen that coming before they were put in the position they are today. so the jays scouts are pretty much useless as tits on a nun.

 

what do you call a sexy nun? sister Suchawaste.

[Olerud363]

the only things that scouts could tell a team, but wont because it would take up too much of their useless lives, would be things like what time a player shows up every day, what kind of an effort does he put in when he thinks no one is looking, if he's an ass or a guy who wants to learn. you could learn more hiding in the tunnels during practice than you do at games. everything at games is on tape and can be broken down into the smallest bits and pieces. the unknown is the kind of person they are and personality does matter.

 

the present jays have some guys with lots of talent, but the mental ability of a 4 year old. the jays scouts should have seen that coming before they were put in the position they are today. so the jays scouts are pretty much useless as tits on a nun.

 

what do you call a sexy nun? sister Suchawaste.

 

As an outsider I would also guess part of the job is to drink with the other scouts and find out inside information. I'm not joking here. The scouts need to be well connected and well liked, so that if Mike Sirotka or Sergio Santos is damaged goods they can get that information to AA.

 

Fits in with what you are saying. They need to see what time guys are showing up... and find out tidbits from other scouts.

[Nox]

the unknown is the kind of person they are and personality does matter.

 

Obviously true. I guess the other point is that scouts are neither in the position to make this assessment, nor are they in any way qualified to do so.

 

It certainly doesn't stop them from trying though!

[o2cui2i]

Obviously true. I guess the other point is that scouts are neither in the position to make this assessment, nor are they in any way qualified to do so.

 

It certainly doesn't stop them from trying though!

 

in the end it is up to the GM what information is used to acquire players. if you have a bunch tobacco chewing hicks who know more about spitting than saber-metrics, who are surrounding a GM who wouldn't know what end of a glove to stick his hand into, this is what to expect??

[o2cui2i]

As an outsider I would also guess part of the job is to drink with the other scouts and find out inside information. I'm not joking here. The scouts need to be well connected and well liked, so that if Mike Sirotka or Sergio Santos is damaged goods they can get that information to AA.

 

Fits in with what you are saying. They need to see what time guys are showing up... and find out tidbits from other scouts.

 

they'd find out more about the players from the kids who work in the clubhouse. other scouts are not going to tell you the truth about anything that would give you an upper hand???? as the bat boy, the kid who cleans up the dugout, the guy doing the laundry. they will tell you more of the truth and it wont cost you more than a smile and Wendy's gift certificates.

[KSaw]

You are not arguing with me, you are arguing with 30 MLB teams. You say that they can't do exactly what they are trying to do. As I pointed out, even Billy Beane uses MLB scouts.

[Nox]

You are not arguing with me, you are arguing with 30 MLB teams. You say that they can't do exactly what they are trying to do. As I pointed out, even Billy Beane uses MLB scouts.

 

You have literally no idea how saber inclined teams process scouting reports. Nor do you know what's in said reports.

 

There's a pretty big philosophical difference between a team that has 1-2 MLB scouts and one that deems it wise to devote their entire pro scouting staff (which happens to be the largest in the business by a factor of like 5) to exclusive MLB coverage.

 

Stop talking out of your ass for once.

[KSaw]

And of course they can't track a pitch. They can note that hard breaking balls are currently tying up a hitter who normally handles them, as an example. Then the individual's baseball IQ comes into play because he has to form an option as to why and report his opinion on whether its a glitch, a hole in the swing or just a timing thing. You don't seem to like it but MLB clubs greatly value those opinions.

[KSaw]

Telling you how it is, is hardly talking out if my ass. That said, teams really need just 1 advance scout. The number of MLB scouts needed on top of that can vary but 1 wouldn't cut it. At the trade deadline it's tough to get a look at multiple people with just 1 person.