Mike Wilner:Jays Talk

[oakville69]

An allstar in AAA maybe??

 

He won a batting title in Las Vegas.

[oakville69]

It's a shame that Parkes and Stoeten no longer do that post-game live video stream. Only lasted a while, but the criticisms were spot-on. A big difference from the lazy writing at DJF that beats the fan pinata.

 

I think that Stoeten has reduced his attacks on the fan base that posts there. It's not good for business.

 

Parkes works on another blog now.

[flafson]

Everyone has a chance to be an allstar, seems like a possible argument. Maybe not this year though but who knows.

[Caper]

I'm so f***ing sick of listening to Peter from St. Catherine's call up to talk about Tom Cheek. What a knob polisher that guy is.

[backontop]

Because the fan spends 90% of the time talking about hockey which I find as boring as soccor I rarely listen to it. But I did hear a new guy (to me) defending Brett Lawrie and his asinine actions with Linds fly ball,(Eric Smith) I thought, "Oh my God, I thought Wilner was the worst sportscaster I ever listened to.", but this guy is even worse then Wilner. I concluded, all you have to do to get a job as a sportscaster at The Fan 5.90 is graduate from broadcasting school, show them your diploma, then you are hired. Remember that you 18 year olds, and if you should happen to be good, you will have very little compitition there. Good Luck!

[JFD]

Wilner defending JPA again SMH

 

what a POS human being

[8D]

Wilner defending JPA again SMH

 

what a POS human being

 

at least wilner now has a JPA interview for life.

Can say he had his back all along even when the other media types were on his ass.

[backontop]

No need to read what this clown said, its a no good, lowdown, doggone dirty rotton shame that this idiot is still on the air. I had a thought concerning this today and wondered, is ROGERS ability to choosing sportscasters to work on Sportsnet, the same as their ability to choosing MLB players for the Blue Jays? If so, Torontos only hope is that some day they will sell the team.

[Dr Negative]

This guy thinks the Cubs would want JJ hahaha

 

I could see them going for him in the offseason since he is pitching his way to an incentive laden 1 year contract right now.

[JFD]

It appears some people prefer broadcasters to take the Wilner approach.

 

maybe it's a JPA troll account

[Shogun89]

Some people think that injuries and bad luck are the real reasons for the team being in last place. They'll say stuff like "Well AA did his best, nobody could have predicted this."

 

Every team is gonna have injuries. We seem so paper thin that we're not able to deal with any.

[Caper]

I dunno. Drabek/McGuire/Walden are very likely replacement level trash. Stroman/Hutchison/Nolin are interesting, but we'll probably see one, maybe two in the opening day rotation. We currently have only Dickey, Morrow, Buehrle, and Happ for next year's rotation.

 

RR is having a good game tonight.

[John_Havok]

And when he strings 2 months worth of good starts together, the Jays might give a s***.

[JaysRap]

Exactly. Somebody goes down and we're starting Ramon Ortiz and Chien-Ming Wang. That doesn't happen on other teams.

 

Not only does it seem like our injuries cripple our team where others survive, teams like the Yankees sign bums lie Wells and Overbay and get production from their replacements! Even if it isnt long term production they still come in and sustain them.

[John_Havok]

Not only does it seem like our injuries cripple our team where others survive, teams like the Yankees sign bums lie Wells and Overbay and get production from their replacements! Even if it isnt long term production they still come in and sustain them.

 

It's easier to replace the production of position players than SP, or perhaps a better way to put it ... the downgrade of 1-2 position players is not as impact full as 1-2 starting pitchers.

 

Usually the replacement position guys can do one aspect of the game well enough that if your pitching is healthy and good, you can overcome it.

[Arkadium]

And when he strings 2 months worth of good starts together, the Jays might give a s***.

 

+1.

[Mikeleelop]

 

It's true. Neither belong in MLB

[Deadpool]

It's true. Neither belong in MLB

 

.315 OBP for Kawasaki

.239 OBP for Bonifacio

 

Citing AVG there makes Wilner kinda a dickface.

[Hawkguy]

Wilner after the game;

 

"I could have hit that ball. Kawasaki sucks. We won't make the playoffs because of him."

[Deadpool]

And a hypocrite.

 

I was going to say "disingenuous" but I liked "a dickface" better.

[Deadpool]

Not defending weiner at all but i think obp is slightly overrated... for example.. taking a walk with a runner on second with say 2 outs is not comparable to getting a hit and likely driving that run in... correct?? Now I realize you need to get on base to score but I'd say the on base average is probably with half of what a base hit is worth

 

The object of hitting is not making outs. I'll take a guy who hits .250 with a .400 OBP over a guy who hits .300 with a .310 OBP (assuming comparable slugging etc etc.)

[Arkadium]

It's certainly not all-encompassing. A .250/.300/.500 hitter is really valuable these days.

 

If you want to evaluate a player's offensive capabilities as a whole it's best to use a linear weights stat like wRC+.

 

Here's a question: How would you compare 4 walks vs 1 HR? Which would you rather have in any given game (you're not allowed to know the situations)?

 

And on a side discussion, a somewhat pointless topic... a lead-off walk is no different then any other method of getting to 1B to lead-off an inning.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/community/the-leadoff-walk/

 

A lead-off runner has about 38% chance of scoring (regardless of how they got on). I'll take the way under on that for the Blue Jays this year.

[Laika]

Linear weights exist.

 

Approximate values:

 

1B: 0.90

BB: 0.70

HR: 2.00

 

Something like that...

 

Yes, a base hit is better than a walk. Yes, 0-1 with 3 BB is (most often) a better night than 1-4 with a HR.

 

There is a big difference between the "AVG" skill and the "OBP" skill though. It's not as simple as "a hit is better, therefore OBP is overrated". In the modern game, it is fully possible to OBP well over .400, that is to say, not get out over 40% of the time. It is virtually impossible to do this via base hits alone, over any sizable sample. Players that want to maximize their offensive impact NEED to walk as much as possible. And players that want to be more consistent producers also need to walk as much as possible. Putting the ball in play makes your production subject to a lot of luck - batting average can be volatile, and swing up and down violently based on BABIP. If you walk 14% of the time, like Votto or Bautista, then you can still be a stud even when your average sinks to the mid .200's (usually). Walk 4% of the time like Adam Jones or Erick Aybar, and even when you hit .280+, you're barely an above average player (usually).

 

When it comes to Bonifacio and Kawasaki, walk rate is the difference between being a useful bench player (Kawasaki: .212 with no pop and 11.7 walk rate = .280 wOBA, positive WAR) and a piece of s*** (Bonifacio: .206 with 3.9% walk rate and no pop = .239 wOBA, negative WAR).

 

Now you have been enlightened. Go forth and preach the gospel of OBP.

[Arkadium]

lol................RRKDumn!!!!

 

Retard.

[Arkadium]

When it comes to Bonifacio and Kawasaki, walk rate is the difference between being a useful bench player (Kawasaki: .212 with no pop and 11.7 walk rate = .280 wOBA, positive WAR) and a piece of s*** (Bonifacio: .206 with 3.9% walk rate and no pop = .239 wOBA, negative WAR)..

 

If you could of actually said this over the air after Wilner was comparing their f***ing AVG's.... would of been gold.

[Arkadium]

You say this as you've been rebuttled to no answer, unless you have one?

 

Would you engage in an argument with a retard?

 

[Deadpool]

The object of hitting is not making outs. I'll take a guy who hits .250 with a .400 OBP over a guy who hits .300 with a .310 OBP (assuming comparable slugging etc etc.)

 

Linear weights exist.

 

Approximate values:

 

1B: 0.90

BB: 0.70

HR: 2.00

 

Something like that...

 

Yes, a base hit is better than a walk. Yes, 0-1 with 3 BB is (most often) a better night than 1-4 with a HR.

 

There is a big difference between the "AVG" skill and the "OBP" skill though. It's not as simple as "a hit is better, therefore OBP is overrated". In the modern game, it is fully possible to OBP well over .400, that is to say, not get out over 40% of the time. It is virtually impossible to do this via base hits alone, over any sizable sample. Players that want to maximize their offensive impact NEED to walk as much as possible. And players that want to be more consistent producers also need to walk as much as possible. Putting the ball in play makes your production subject to a lot of luck - batting average can be volatile, and swing up and down violently based on BABIP. If you walk 14% of the time, like Votto or Bautista, then you can still be a stud even when your average sinks to the mid .200's (usually). Walk 4% of the time like Adam Jones or Erick Aybar, and even when you hit .280+, you're barely an above average player (usually).

 

When it comes to Bonifacio and Kawasaki, walk rate is the difference between being a useful bench player (Kawasaki: .212 with no pop and 11.7 walk rate = .280 wOBA, positive WAR) and a piece of s*** (Bonifacio: .206 with 3.9% walk rate and no pop = .239 wOBA, negative WAR).

 

Now you have been enlightened. Go forth and preach the gospel of OBP.

 

Yeah... what NJH said much more thoroughly than I did.

[G-Snarls]

It's certainly not all-encompassing. A .250/.300/.500 hitter is really valuable these days.

 

If you want to evaluate a player's offensive capabilities as a whole it's best to use a linear weights stat like wRC+.

 

Right. Any one number from the slash line is not adequate to evaluate a player's contribution to scoring. OBP is important but it's not everything.

[G-Snarls]

I liked the caller who thought Kawasaki was worth a huge amount of WAR because the team won 11 games in a row with him at short instead of Reyes. (As in, the team won a ton more games with him REPLACING Reyes and he though that's what wins against replacement meant). Wilner deservedly ripped this.

[Hawkguy]

The thing with OBP% is that we're talking about bottom of the order guys (Izturis, Boni, Kawasaki).

 

None of them have good averages (all under .250) and only one of them has a respectable OBP%.

 

Their AVG/OBP lines (before tonight) are;

 

.246/.287

.217/.320

.208/.244

 

I'll take the high OBP% for bottom of the order guys. If they get on base - they flip the order usually (or help to) where your guys who hit .300 or hit for power are.

 

2-out, 1 on 2B - of course a 2B is better than a walk. But if, let's say Kawasaki gets a walk, then you have 2 on for a guy who is hitting .307.

 

As far as I'm concerned, #1, #2 and #9 need to have high OBP%'s.

 

I liked the caller who thought Kawasaki was worth a huge amount of WAR because the team won 11 games in a row with him at short instead of Reyes. (As in, the team won a ton more games with him REPLACING Reyes and he though that's what wins against replacement meant). Wilner deservedly ripped this.

Even if the caller was right, Wilner would find a way to rip him. I've never heard Wilner hate a guy for absolutely no reason so much before.