Olerud363.354

Good news is the other teams suck so Jays are 'projected' to sneak into playoffs with their 83 wins and could even host the Astros or Rangers in the Wild Card series. That's projections so it probably won't work out like that. Like 6 teams are projected to be 82-84 wins. However in reality one or two of the 6 will got hot and win 88 so 83 won't be enough to host the wild card. Maybe Jays be the one who wins 88? Barger probably two torn meniscus but no doubt Eloy Jiminez can replace Barger if healthy (and so far healthy in Buffalo but probably will tear his two meniscus when he gets up game 2 at bat 3). One of Bieber, Yesivage, Berrios returns? Maybe... maybe... or maybe they all need Tommy John. Problem is if the season is cursed everything will go wrong. Like if their is redundancy in a normal season the redundancy plays. 3/3 things don't wrong in normal season... but in a cursed season, which this very likely is, everything goes wrong. Even there's only a 1% chance of 10 wrong things happening, they will go wrong in the cursed season.

It's an 83 win team according to fangraphs. Yankees 91. I think both were 88 to begin the season. Jays are only 3 games back of Yankees so how is the projection costing them 8?? I think they were supposed to be a couple games ahead right now given easy schedule + the injuries. So they literally lost 8 projected games to the Yankees in 5 days.

His numbers are close to what they were projected for .250 hitter with 20 homers... the strike-outs are really concerning though. Like he struck out 60% of the time. Hopefully turns it around.

Feels hopeless. 50 wins for the 50th season? Or will they be in the 40s. Fun week ahead for the Dodgers. Good opportunity to get Kyle Tucker going and the pitchers pad their numbers with some shut outs.

Jays division odds have gone from 30% or something to 15%. While Yankees from 30% to 60% in 5 days. The reactions are fully justified given the last 5 days. It's been an awful 5 days and likely changed the shape of the season. At least according to the playoff odds math. I know last year we came back from a situation like this ... but we didn't in 1998, or 1999, or 2003, or 2006, or 2007, or 2008, or 2013, or 2017, or 2018, or 2021, 2022, or 2023, or 2024. In 2022 and 2023 we got the wild card, but those years the division was lost very early, which has quite likely just happened again with a slow start and injuries. Fans that seem irrational are really not. Humans are good at probability even if not good at math. The seemingly over-the-top reactions always correlate with the playoff odds and injuries.

Last year you could say the same. Barger, Clement, Schneider, Lukes came through. Still have similar at Buffalo. Jiminez, Kasevitch, Mcadoo, Schrek a few others. Not saying any them are anything, but no one new Clement or Barger, maybe that just got lucky that second tier prospects/journey men worked out last year, and you can't count on it again.

Yesavage probably gets rocked (haven't looked yet) and needs two Tommy Johns. Patrick Corbin healthy, very healthy, 5.77 ERA though. Life is short. Life is brutal. Life is disappointing, the sun does shine occasionally, but when the clouds come back it makes it all the worse. The NY Mets and the Toronto Blue Jays are the same. I was talking to my friend about this the other night. Very similar. Can have awesome years. Have big payrolls. Are in big cities. Have awesome TV contracts and awesome fans. They both go into most years looking golden with so much excitement. They have their moments but then they can win 71 with a horrible effort out of nowhere. Maybe that is every team, but it doesn't happen to the Dodgers or Yankees it seems. The small market teams are what they are. Jays and Mets though. Teach kids not to have hope. Enjoy the good when it comes, but never have hope.

Dodger 18 Jays 0 Dodgers 7 Blue Jays 6 (blow lead heartbreaking things in extra innings, random craziness just to make people feel sick) Dodgers 14 Jays 1 Jays 4-8 Sadness high. Hope never. Rebuild Starts though and hopefully Jo Jo Parkeris not Kevin Ahrens.

Only 7 games but he has a 60% ground ball rate and isn't hitting the ball as hard as usual. ha ha. It is what is always has been. Hopefully he hits one hard in the air eventually. As an outsider I don't understand it and never will. 1. Historic minor league stats, best ever in Blue Jays history .400 average in double a as a teenager. 2. Historically high hard hit rate and more hard it balls in play than any other player this decade. 3. Two historic performances in homerun derby showing generational power tool. 4. Given 80 hit grade tool by scouts maybe only one ever. 5. 18 playoff games against best teams and pitching in the game hitting .350 .500 .700 or something. 6. 4 month stretches hitting .340 .440 .650 in 2021 and 2024. 7. By all metrics 99.99th percentile raw hitting tools on par with Frank Thomas and Albert Pujols. 8. Randomly hits .250 with a 55% ground ball rate weeks at a time preventing generational multi year numbers.

100%. Haven't read the entire thread so not sure if anyone suggested that. Fascinating last year to see the different perspectives on game 7. It was painful but not the most painful thing I've experienced as a Jays fan. By far April 2013 was. The most promising season in a generation gone after a month (injuries and bad start). I remember going to Canada's wonderland that summer and the vibe was so sad. No competitive Jays, CN tower in the distance so lonely. I feel like early in the season there is a different kind of stress. Like all of a sudden Yankees are 20-5, the Jays 10-12 with a bunch of injuries kind of thing. Less devastating with all the wild cards now, but a competitive season over quick can happen... painful when it does. Talking to my Mets friend the other day, and we agreed Mets and Jays are similar. Can't complain (not the Pirates) and so many happy moments but so much and failure too. Not the Yankees or Dodgers who are pretty much pain free for fans 35 or younger. A 35 year old Dodgers/Yankee fan has never seen a season spiral out of control to 70 wins. We fear this. Because we know it can happen.

I find the rage venting correlates pretty heavily to the in-game win probability chart and also the season long playoff probability odds. And injuries too. Like losing 2/3 to the tigers no injuries, is a lot different than losing 2/3 to Rockies and Ponce maybe gone for season, Little really messed up, bullpen over-worked, and Okamota showing warts (crazy k-rate). I'm not saying the sky is falling, but it's like in season there's these shifts. Like last year Jays division probability went from I think 95% to 50% in 6 days. That's insane. Like the fans don't rage for small shifts in probability, or losing an average game. It's huge probability shifts, big blow leads, injuries, And losing to the Rockies.

No doubt in my mind that Rockies were embarrassed by Jays last year, so prepared and focused on this series quite a bit. Paul DePodesta is a data guy. I think a few laughed at hiring him... can't remember why. Maybe he screwed up another team. I assume if nothing else he'll just catch them up to average game prep for a modern MLB franchise and they'll win at least 60 this year and won't lose 15-1 as much.

Paul Depodesta is a complete genius, and they've been game planning this series for months. I believe Freeland was the guy pitching the 20-1 game in Denver. I believe they have put everything humanly possible into this game. Every pitch by Freeland will have perfect location and his series of pitches will have sequencing that has been planned for 7 months. Every batter has gone into the simulation thing to learn Gaussman for 7 months. They will know what is coming from the slightest tell. They are out for revenge for the 20-1 game (or whatever it was) and by god, I do think they will get it. The only positive is that our run-differential will go to like -20, and the Yankees will lose too today 2-1. And will be leading us like by 30 runs in run-differential but tied in standing, and Michael Kay will lose his mind completely.

Yeah. Vlad played in Blue Field. Bo in the GCL (Gulf Coast League). Travis Snider played in Pulaski, but that (2006) looks like it was the last year. Before contraction they had basically three short seasons. NY Penn for example. Appalachian League, and Gulf Coast League. So the players that just got drafted could get really spread out.

Stroman tore his March 10th and was back in 6 months. Probably an outlier and unlikely Ponce can do the same. Sucks.

I mean nothing is black and white. It is nice if they destroy the FCL. If they don't not the end of the world, but if after 100 at bats they are .175 with a 30 to 3 strikeout to walk ratio 2 doubles and a homer.... that is not good, even if only a month of data and they are only 18.

But the league Aaron Judge was sent to was still kind of appropriate. Before contraction there was like a really pathetic morning league in Dunnedin, and Jays had Pulaski, and they had the old Vancouver (which was short season). The first 2 were extremely low level, so a good 18 year old high ranked prospect should have destroyed them. And wait. Jays still have the pathetic morning league where they play at 10:00 am or something. It is called Florida Complex League. An 18 year old high ranked prospect should wreck that. Or at least hold their own. Like that Bonilla guy when he showed up and was hitting .180 you kiind of knew.... So now it is Sanchez who is the next hope, along with Parker? Sanchez did better in the Dominican League than Bonilla, now he and Parker have to destroy that 10:00 league and move up to the other Dunnedin which is still low, but that one you don't expect him to destroy (it would be nice. They __HAVE__ to destroy the 10:00 league).

Right, but when Judge went to Buff-Fudge no where for a few weeks at the beginning of his pro career (Charleston, which at the time wasn't totally butt-fudge no where but full season A) he hit .328 .428 .530. Bobby Witt. Yeah totally. Did not dominate the short season rookie he was sent to. That didn't indicate a ceiling. Witt is interesting kind of got better year to year. Not good in rookie went from wRC+ of 95 in the majors to 170 within 3 years. Bo showed up rookie ball hitting .400, destroyed the low minors. 140 wRC+ in 40 games at 21. Sort of a steady 125 wRC+ after that. As for Jo Jo Parker what would be nice is if he hits the ground running, has stupid numbers in low a, and does 2 levels this year, like a lot of the really good prospects do.

If healthy he will be missed. We will have to see. If it turns out his legs start affecting his hitting you could be right. If his legs are fine and plays 154 healthy games he could get Soto induced MVP votes (Soto's on base percentage gets him 140 rbis and he makes a run for the batting title).

One hill I'll die on, and said about Nimmala (and got a lot of push back on the old board) is that if a guy is a someone they should destroy the first league they are sent to. Like they should hit like prime Mike Trout if he was sent to Colorado for 6 weeks. If they don't it already puts a ceiling on them. I don't believe the scouts can tell 100% what they have (like Bo wasn't a first round guy) and high school and college stats can't quite capture it. However the first 6 weeks in the Appalachian league in Buff-Fudge no where tell you a lot.

He hasn't played yet but I assume this is intentional. Like until very recently these guys would show up in some short season league after getting drafted and beat the s*** out of it. Seems like something changed just recently, and these guys are kind of sent to the high performance center instead of games after getting drafted. At the same age Vlad and Bo and were about 2 years away. I think __IF__ he is going to be good he's 2 years away. There's a high chance he'll fail because most do. The great talents often show up fast and the beat the s*** out of every league they are in... if they don't show up fast it often means they aren't good. (always exceptions either way). Kevin Ahrens still hasn't made it.

Insane. There used to be TV. You changed the channel and watched a different channel and at this time a year you could watch NCAA. You could watch Sunday night baseball. You just changed the channel. There is still NCAA for now, but sadly many hotels and bars don't even have normal TV. Was travelling a week ago and hotel did not have normal TV to catch up on NCAA and neither did hotel bar. Insane zombies walking the place with no common ground. I think people underestimate the effect this is having on society in general. Humans no longer work right. My wife teaches and the kids are so messed up. Can't read. Can't have any common reference points. 20 years ago a kid would turn to channel 57 ESPN and watch Sunday night baseball, and they would have common reference point. 10 years ago maybe it become channel 1048 as the cable got weird. Now it doesn't exist and the kid scrolls mindlessly frying their brain. Old guys come in for Sunday night sports and go to the channel they used to watch and not there anymore and become grumpy and non-functional. Happening with all the sports and driving the young and old mentally ill... sad to see. downstream effect of this will be horrible.

Yeah. Jays got away with that last year until they didn't. Problem is not only Lukes, but that it ends up Schneider, then Straw when he comes in for defense ... so the 2 spot in a couple of World Series games was a mess.

went to make sure my mlb tv was set up so I don't have to fool around with the password tonight and miss the first inning and... Buffalo is playing apparently? Did not know they start in March too. Felt sorry for Eloy Jiminez, though I guess not too different than Chicago in March. 30 degrees and 5 people in the stands. Thought in passed years the minors waited a week or so at least until April.

Does this basically mean he already is rehabbing the injury, and will show up in late April or something? I guess you never know for sure. Hopefully nothing too serious.