Mike LeSage

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 6/23 through Sun, 6/29 *** Record Last Week: 4-2 (Overall: 45-38) Run Differential Last Week: +6 (Overall: -4) Standings: Third Place in AL East (3.0 GB), Fifth in AL (Currently in second Wild Card spot, 1.5 games back of TBR and 2.0 games up on SEA) Last Week’s Results Game 78 TOR 10 - CLE 6 Lauer: 5.1 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 5 K, 3 BB (Lauer's most pitches (86) and innings this season) Chad Green: Barf City Springer: Grand Slam Game 79 CLE 5 - TOR 4 (10 innings) Scherzer: 5 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 4 K, 3 BB (83 pitches) Guerrero Jr.: 1-for-3, HR (11) Game 80 TOR 6 - CLE 0 Gausman: 8 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 6 K, 1 BB (104 pitches) Kirk: Pinch-hit 2-RBI insurance Game 81 TOR 9 - BOS 0 Berríos: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 8 K, 1 BB Springer: 3 for 5 with a pair of runs and RBIs Clement: 2-for-2 with 3 walks Game 82 BOS 15 - TOR 1 Bassitt: 2 IP, 8 H, 8 ER, 3 K, 4 BB Team: 0-for-7 with RISP Game 83 TOR 5 - BOS 3 Lauer: 4.1 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 4 K, 0 BB Barger: 1-for-4, HR (9) Guerrero Jr.: 1-for-4, HR (12) Highlights Andrés Giménez returned to Cleveland for the first time since the Jays acquired him this season. He wasted no time reminding those in attendance why he’s the reigning Gold Glover with a diving play that took him partway into left-centre before turning to fire the ball to Vladdy at first for the out. In Boston, it was Ernie Clement’s turn to make a case for his own Gold Glove, extending himself over the fence to make a catch in foul territory at Fenway. With the exception of one start (which we’ll cover in the next section), the starting pitching this week was lights out. From Kevin Gausman and José Berríos throwing eight and seven innings of shutout ball, respectively, to Eric Lauer getting it done over a pair of starts, the Jays got what they needed from the rotation. I should make a special mention of the return of Max Scherzer. His five innings of sporadic control weren't vintage Mad Max, but the first step was always going to be putting in the innings and recovering well enough to make his next scheduled start… and it’s a big one. Lowlights Following his start against the Red Sox, Chris Bassitt had this to say: Given how poorly the Red Sox have performed recently, and the fact that the Jays won the other two games of the series, it’s probably not prudent to assume nefarious actions from Boston, but this team is a division rival, so I’ll say it: They’re cheats! Regardless of the reason, two innings and eight earned runs from Bassitt was a lowlight. The Jays also had a pair of runners thrown out at first base after reaching safely. Giménez and Tyler Heineman (the latter with two outs and the bases loaded) were both picked off first base. You never want to make outs on the basepaths, and given the Jays' commitment to improved baserunning this season, these two outs were rather glaring. News, Notes and Not Playing Robinson Piña acquired from Marlins in exchange for Colby Martin Spencer Turnbull designated for assignment Will Wagner recalled from Triple-A Buffalo Alan Roden optioned to Triple-A Buffalo Justin Bruihl recalled from Triple-A Buffalo 10-day IL: Anthony Santander, Daulton Varsho Early in the week, Varsho felt some hamstring tightness while running the bases. He’s ramping back up and showing progress, but there isn’t a return date targeted yet. Santander has not yet started swinging a bat, so his timeline is even less clear. 15-day IL: Paxton Schultz, Yimi García, Bowden Francis García pitched in the Complex League on Monday, Dunedin on Thursday, and Buffalo yesterday. As long as there are no setbacks, he should be back with the big club shortly. Francis had a cortisone shot and has been playing catch with a ramp-up anticipated. Schultz was just placed on the IL Saturday with middle finger inflammation (the finger he most likely wanted to show the Boston fans after his last appearance). 60-day IL: Alek Manoah, Ryan Burr During the Jays broadcast on Tuesday, it was reported that Manoah had thrown 25 pitches of BP and touched 95 with the fastball. He’s scheduled to throw two more sessions of BP on Canada Day and will be evaluated again following that. Burr pitched in Triple A this week and could see himself back with the Jays in the coming weeks without a setback. Trending Storylines Bassitt’s start aside, the Jays' pitching had a pretty stellar week. If they can string a few more weeks like that together, especially if Scherzer can keep making a positive impact every fifth day, they’ll really be cooking. The next week brings seven games at the Rogers Centre, so they have a slight reprieve until we worry about the team's home/road batting splits. Looking Ahead A four-game set in Toronto against the Yankees starts tonight. It doesn’t get much bigger than that at this point in the season. Is three out of four too much to hope for? Is the sweep in play? Scherzer gets the start in game one of the series, and we’ll all be looking to see how he builds on his last outing. Following the Yankees series, we’ll be seeing the resurgent Angels. Since they took two of three from the Jays in early May, they’ve gone 26-21 and find themselves knocking on the door of the last wild card spot. It won’t be an easy week, but the Jays can grind out some wins. View full article

Naturally, Francis' next potential start would've been against CWS - he was due to turn it around there ;)

Weekly Snapshot: Monday, June 9 through Sunday, June 15 *** Record Last Week: 3-3 (Overall: 38-33) Run Differential Last Week: -11 (Overall: -12) Standings: Third place in AL East (4.5 GB), Fifth in AL (currently in 2nd Wildcard spot, 1.5 games up on SEA in 3rd) Last Week’s Results Game 66: TOR 5 - STL 4 (10 innings) Berríos: 6.2 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 1 K Kirk: 4 for 5, HR (4) Clase: 2 for 4, HR (1) Game 67: TOR 10 - STL 9 Bassitt: 7.0 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 3 K Bichette: 3 for 5, 3 runs Kirk: 3 for 5, HR (5) Giménez: 2 for 5, HR (4) and 4 RBI Game 68: TOR 5 - STL 2 Lauer: 4.1 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K Clement: 3 for 4, HR (4) Game 69: PHI 8 - TOR 0 Gausman: 5.0 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 7 K Kirk: 2 for 4 Rest of team: 3 for 28 Game 70: PHI 3 - TOR 2 Francis: 3.2 IP, 1 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 4 K Guerrero Jr. and Clement: 2 for 4 each Rest of team: 1 for 24 Game 71: PHI 11 - TOR 4 Berríos: 4.2 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 0 BB, 5 K Clement: 3 for 4, 2 runs Robertson: 1 for 4, first major league hit and RBI Highlights: Alejandro Kirk has been hot. So hot that Leo Morgenstern noted he’s catching fire. This week, he led the team in hits (11) and had the highest wRC+ at 217. He also had the highest Win Probability Added and was the only Jay to go yard more than once. All of that on top of his elite work behind the plate. Catcher is a deep position in the league this season, but Kirk is making a case for All-Star inclusion. Another player refusing to be ignored from All-Star consideration is Ernie Clement. In another great read from Mr. Morgenstern, he highlighted how great Clement has been with the glove, despite not having a true position. This week he brought his bat too. Tied with Kirk for most hits (11), in a week when no other Jay got more than six, it was nice to feel like not every bat had left town early. Alan Roden didn’t see a tonne of action this week, but when he did, he left his mark. With just nine plate appearances on the week, his wRC+ of 144 was behind only Kirk and Clement. Three singles and a pair of RBI isn’t usually going to get you into the Highlight section - but when we talk about the mark left by Roden this week, we’re going to be talking about the mark his eyeblack left on the outfield wall in Philadelphia (not to mention the face imprint) going all out to take an almost sure hit away from Nick Castellanos. Lowlights: Bowden Francis has been in the lowlights section a few times now, and this might be the most unfair of them all. Through the first three innings in Philadelphia, he looked, if not sharp, then at least the best we’ve seen him in a while. A single to Brandon Marsh, the Phillies' #9 hitter, was the only blemish through 3 frames. The fourth started promisingly, with Francis getting the first two outs. The next five batters would combine to load the bases and score twice on three walks and two HBP, and that ended Francis’ day. If/when the Scherzer spot in the rotation solidifies, we might see Francis moving into it, but with the next projected start coming against the White Sox, he has a clear chance to make it into next week’s highlights section. News, Notes, and Not Playing: Will Robertson contract selected from Triple-A. 7-day IL: Nathan Lukes Lukes is said to be progressing from his concussion protocol and could see a return to action this week. 10-day IL: Daulton Varsho, Anthony Santander Varsho is continuing to recover and is lightly throwing and hitting, but has not yet begun running activities. The hope is that a clearer timeline for his rehab and return will be announced this week. Santander has begun light baseball activity and is not expected back ahead of Varsho (Schneider via Matheson) 15-day IL: Yimi García, Nick Sandlin It was reported that García’s bullpen session this week went well, and his rehab is continuing. Sandlin threw 16 pitches in a rehab outing and will be re-evaluated. 60-day IL: Ryan Burr, Max Scherzer Burr threw live BP on Saturday and will be evaluated for how he feels following that session. Scherzer threw 56 pitches on Friday (was scheduled to throw 60-65) and felt good afterwards. He is scheduled to make another rehab start on Wednesday with a target of 70-75 pitches as he builds back up. Trending Storyline: The Jays were rolling, having won 12 of 14 games and five series in a row (including a win over Philly in Toronto) at the end of their set in St. Louis. Then they rolled into the city of Brotherly Love and got outscored 22-6 over the weekend. As bad as the Philly games were, we’re only one series removed from watching this team play its best baseball of the season, and there’s reason to believe that with the series coming on the horizon, this might just be a blip. Looking Ahead: The Jays get a much-needed off day on Monday before welcoming the Arizona Diamondbacks, with former Jays: Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Randal Grichuk, and Gabriel Moreno for a 3-game set. The Diamondbacks are similar to the Jays in that they’re hovering around .500, but doing it in a tough division (minus the Rockies), so we could see some close games. Then it's the AL-worst Chicago White Sox in for the weekend. These are a couple of prime series to shake the Philly-stink off of the Jays and get the bats swinging again. View full article

Love this breakdown. Bassitt's arsenal is so varied and changing that this kind of analysis really helps bring an understanding to the methods behind his 'madness'.

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 5/26 through Sun, 6/1 *** Record Last Week: 6-1 (Overall: 31-28) Run Differential Last Week: +21 (Overall: -5) Standings: Second Place in AL East (5.5 GB), Seventh in AL (0.5 GB of Third Wild Card as of 6/1) Last Week’s Results Game 53: TOR 2 - TEX 1 Gausman: 8.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K Varsho: 3-5, HR (8) Hoffman: 1.0 IP, 3 up/3 down, SV (11) Game 54: TEX 2 - TOR 0 Francis: 5.0 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K 11 runners left on base, 0-for-10 with RISP Game 55: TOR 2 - TEX 0 Schultz and Lauer: 6.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K Bichette: PH HR Game 56: TOR 12 - A’s 0 Berrios: 6.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 9 K HRs: Clement (2), Guerrero Jr. (8), Bichette (6), Springer (6) Kirk: 3-for-3 and flirting with .300 Game 57: TOR 11 - A’s 7 Bassitt: 5.0 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 6 K HRs: Clement (3), Barger (3) Game 58: TOR 8 - A’s 7 Lucas: 4.2 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K (Fisher opened) HRs: Barger (4), Bichette (7), Springer (7 and 8) Game 59: TOR 8 - A’s 4 Gausman: 4.2 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 7 K Barger: HR (5) 5-for-10 with RISP Highlights Kevin Gausman followed up his best start of the season in the Jays' 14-0 win over San Diego with an even better performance against Texas despite a much smaller margin for error, going eight innings and willing the team to a 2-1 win. Leo Morgenstern flagged him as the ace most likely to step up for the Jays and I just named him Jays Centre Pitcher of the Month in part because of performances like this. The whole offense against the Athletics was a highlight. In a four-game sweep of the nomadic A’s, the Jays scored 38 runs (almost erasing their negative run differential on the season) on 56 hits, including 11 that left the yard. Leading the charge was former Athletic Ernie Clement, who recorded 11 of those hits and an absurd wRC+ of 418 in the series. In a week when the bats came to life, it was Addison Barger who really took notice. His 254 wRC+ on the week led the team, as did his 0.53 WPA. For the Statcast fans, he was neck and neck with Vladdy and Alejandro Kirk on the EV and distance leaderboards all week too. Lowlights Daulton Varsho was a triple short of the cycle in the opener against Texas, but then it was during his pursuit of a triple against the A’s that he pulled up in a great deal of pain and landed himself on the IL. There was nothing about his play this week that would have put Varsho in the lowlights section, but when the team is going to be without the best defensive outfielder in the league for any length of time, there’s going to be some worry. Anthony Santander was the only Jays batter to go without a hit this week. He’s been battling a number of ailments and finally (mercifully?) ended the week by going on the IL. Jeff Hoffman picked up three saves this week, and two of them were pretty routine. Entering the game against the A’s with a three-run lead to walk away with a one-run save is always a scary proposition. While there is always an element of bend-not-break from some reliever appearances, this one had the opportunity to get ugly if not for Ernie Clement flashing the glove to end the game. Random Stats of the Week Jacob deGrom faced 23 Blue Jays batters on Monday and didn’t strike anyone out. It was the first time in his 229 career starts that he left without a K. Bo Bichette’s pinch-hit home run was the first of his career. Ernie Clement’s five RBI in one inning tied Edwin Encarnacion’s team record. News, Notes and Not Playing Ali Sanchez recalled from Triple A Josh Walker traded to Phillies for cash considerations Alan Roden recalled from Triple A Easton Lucas recalled from Triple A (and then optioned back) José Ureña designated for assignment Erik Swanson reinstated from the IL Davis Schneider recalled from Triple A 7-day IL: Tyler Heineman Caught on the weekend and is expected to be activated for this week's series against Philly. 10-day IL: Andrés Giménez, Daulton Varsho Giménez played on the weekend at Single A and is expected to be activated for the series against Philly. Varsho was diagnosed with a Grade 1 hamstring strain and will be evaluated weekly. 15-day IL: Nick Sandlin, Yimi García Sandlin is currently throwing BP to hitters and expected to ramp up over the coming weeks. García had a cortisone shot and is not scheduled to throw in the coming days. 60-day IL: Max Scherzer, Ryan Burr Like García, Burr also had a cortisone shot and was shut down from throwing for a couple of days. Scherzer threw live BP on May 30, and if all feels well, he is expected to continue throwing this week. Trending Storylines After a quiet series in Texas, the bats got loud at home against the A’s, reminding us how much fun dingers can be when it’s your team hitting them. With Clement and Barger leading the charge, the question of what the Jays will do when Andrés Giménez returns will be a real story to watch. Jesse Burrill gave us a nice breakdown of what could happen, but the decisions are always tougher when the bats are hot. Looking Ahead The Jays have an off day Monday after their 13 in a row. They’ll welcome Philly for a three-game set at Rogers Centre before hitting the road for a weekend series in Minnesota. View full article

In my pre-season milestone watch, I tagged Bo Bichette’s 100th home run as “likely to happen.” His four home runs in 2024 were a career low, but after the injuries he battled through last season, his power coming back (and especially the power outburst we’re seeing right now) wasn’t a guarantee. If you'll allow me a moment for navel-gazing, I do have to note that before the season, I wrote, “The homestand against the Athletics at the end of May is where I would look for [Bichette's 100th home run] to happen.” That said, it took until the 33rd game of the season for Bo to hit his first home run of the campaign, so all seven of the homers he needed to reach 100 coming in the last 25 games was a bit of a surprise. Let’s take a second to appreciate #100, before looking back at some of the homers that got us here: Bichette's first home run came in his third game with the Jays after a late-July call-up to the big league club in 2019. Leading off the eighth inning in Kansas City, he took the first pitch he saw over the wall in left-center. He would go on to hit 10 more that season over his final 43 games. That first homer coming on the first pitch of an at-bat isn’t much of a surprise in hindsight. Bichette has always been a first-pitch-swinging guy. In fact, 24% of his homers (that’s 24 out of 100 for the math crew) have come on the first pitch of an at-bat. That’s more than any of the other home run leaders on the current Jays team: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (20%), Daulton Varsho (21%), George Springer (17%), and Anthony Santander (14%). Bichette’s most prolific home run season came in 2021 – the season he set the franchise record for bWAR from a shortstop. That year also included the longest homer of his career, a 468-foot blast that left Fenway Park in a hurry. For contrast, his softest-hit homer (as measured by exit velocity) was this dinger in Baltimore in 2022 that just caught the top of the wall. It was his second home run of the game, and based on the way he walked out of the batter’s box, he might’ve been the only one who knew it was gone off the bat. That was the sixth time in his career that he had a two-homer game. He hasn’t had a two-homer game since then, but that wasn’t his last multi-homer game. That’s because on September 5 of that same season, Bichette went deep three times: Three homers, all to different parts of the park. It's a spray chart hat trick! Bichette is one of 19 Jays to have a three-homer game (Carlos Delgado is the only one to add a fourth) and the most recent to do it. Camden Yards is the place where Bo has hit the most of his homers away from home (9), followed by Fenway Park (6) and temporary Jays homes Sahlen Field and TD Ballpark (5 each). In fact, in another first, he was the first Blue Jay to hit a regular season MLB home run in Buffalo when the Jays were forced to play there during the pandemic: Bichette has hit homers in all nine innings of regular play, but his only one to come in extras was a 12th-inning walk-off against the Yankees in his rookie season. Similarly, he has 99 home runs as a starter, and his only home run as a sub came earlier this week when he hit a pinch-hit go-ahead homer against Texas. Bo’s homers have some in all shapes and sizes, and today we celebrate them all. View full article

Last month we celebrated Yimi García, Jeff Hoffman and Chris Bassitt. This month those two relievers combined to blow five saves and Bassitt posted the highest ERA of the regular starters. I’m not ready to consider the Curse of the PotM just yet, but the pitchers we highlight today might want to take an extra training day as a precaution. Honourable Mention: Michael Stefanic - 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H On a hot day in Florida with the Rays on their way to handing Toronto their worst defeat of the season (so far!) the Jays were looking for someone to stop the bleeding. That someone was Michael Stefanic. Primarily used as a middle infielder, Toronto asked him to dial into his inner Ohtani and take the mound. Mixing a slider that averaged 61mph with a 62mph curve Stefanic sat down the three Rays he faced. He then led off the next inning with a single - something no other Jays pitcher has done this year. May Pitchers of the Month #4 - José Berríos - 36 IP, 14 ER, 37 K, 13 BB, 3.80 FIP Berríos has thrown more innings than any other pitcher this month. He’s also given the Jays a chance to win by throwing a quality start in five of his six appearances. All other Jays pitchers combined to throw five quality starts over the 22 non-Berríos starts. His fWAR is second among the starting pitchers and his durability is unmatched. Given the revolving door of relievers the team is working through, being able to count on Berríos for 6 innings every start is a luxury. #3 - Brendon Little - 13.1 IP, 0 ER, 16 K, 7 BB, 3 holds Of the Blue Jays pitchers with zero earned runs given up in May (incredibly there are seven), Little has done it while having the most appearances (12), innings pitched (13.1) and batters faced (48). In April Jesse Burrill highlighted how nasty Little’s curveball is, and while he’s throwing it almost 50% of the time, opposing hitters can’t seem to do much with it. He’s also got a wild pitch, a hit batter and just enough walks to be a candidate for "effectively wild”, but as long as he’s keeping runs off the board he’s got a place here. #2 - Yariel Rodríguez - 17 IP, 1 ER, 18 K, 3 BB, 4 holds Rodríguez has been so consistent out of the pen this month. He’s made 13 appearances and only given up one run. In seven of those appearances Rodríguez was asked to throw more than one inning and has picked up four holds in the process. Little and Rodríguez have had a real ‘whatever you can do, I can do better’ month coming out of the ‘pen and given how close their performances have been, I wouldn’t quibble if you wanted to flip them in the rankings here. The additional workload tips the scale in Rodríguez’s favour for me. #1 - Kevin Gausman - 32 IP, 10 ER, 33 K, 1 BB, 2.74 FIP In his first start of the month on May 3rd in the bottom of the first inning Gausman issued a walk to the Guardians’ Carlos Santana. He would face 119 batters after that without issuing another walk. In addition to limiting the walks, Gausman also gave up the fewest home runs and fewest earned runs of the Jays main starters. On May 21, Gausman went 7 innings of three-hit shutout against the Padres and put up a 0.4 WPA (Win Probability Added) which was the highest mark by a Jays pitcher to that point in the season. Then, on four days' rest, he went back out against Texas and upped the high water mark to a 0.5 WPA with 8 high leverage innings against the Rangers leading the Jays to a 2-1 win (his 3rd of the month). Leo Morgenstern talked about the Jays' need for an ace, and this month Gausman reminded us of what he is capable of. He’s our Jays Centre Pitcher of the Month. View full article

Man, those mid-90s Cito lineups really were something !

No pitcher in baseball has given up more home runs at this point in the season than Bowden Francis (15). Through ten starts, he’s given up homers in eight games and multiples in four of those. With the usual caveat of small sample size tucked squarely under my arm, I went back and looked at all of the home runs he has allowed to see if there were any trends or identifiable causes for concern. The first trend is thankfully something that we won’t have to worry about again this season. With Toronto having already played a home and away series against Seattle, Rowdy Tellez shouldn’t get a chance to face Francis again in 2025. Of course, this is where I am obligated to mention that Tellez and Francis were traded for each other in 2021 (Trevor Richards also came to the Jays in that deal), and Tellez certainly got the best of Francis this year. In Toronto, it was a first pitch, four-seam fastball off the plate inside that Tellez got around on quickly and put over the fence. In Seattle, it was a fastball again, this time on a 2-0 count on the outside part of the plate, but with the same result. Last year, Francis threw a first-pitch fastball about half the time. This year, that rate has jumped up closer to two-thirds of the time. So, I wondered if his opponents were hunting for that first-pitch fastball. After all, in Francis's last start, he served up a first-pitch fastball down the middle, which Gavin Sheets crushed into the seats. However, aside from the two first-pitch homers by Sheets and Tellez, the only other first-pitch blast Francis has given up this season was on a down-and-away curveball that Riley Greene knocked out. Back to the drawing board. The home runs have come in every possible count, with the exception of 3-0. Five have come in even counts, three with Francis ahead and seven with him behind (including two full-count home runs). Hitters don’t seem to be teeing off on a specific pitch either. Seven of the home runs Francis has given up have come against his four-seam fastball, five against his splitter and three on his curve. He throws the fastball more than any other pitch, so by percentage, the splitter is leaving the yard most often, but not by a significant amount. Comparing Francis to the other mainstays of Toronto's rotation, he's thrown the fewest pitches over the heart of the plate. Francis’ 223 trails José Berríos (241), Kevin Gausman (276) and Chris Bassitt (262), but the other three have all kept their home run numbers down. Gausman and Bassitt combined have given up the same number of homers as Francis, despite throwing more pitches/innings/games. All four of those pitchers are right-handed throwers, and as such, opposing managers tend to try to stack their lineups with lefties to take advantage of that platoon split. With his conversion from a reliever to a full-time starter, Francis has seen a massive spike in the number of lefties he is forced to pitch against – a 13.3% increase from last season (45.8% to 59.1%). Compared to the other starters, all veterans, who have seen 5.5% (Berríos), 0.8% (Gausman) and 1.0% (Bassitt) increases from 2024 to 2025, it is understandable that this would be a bigger adjustment for the less experienced Francis. The one thing that is undeniable, and I’ve buried it a little here, is that the vast majority of the damage against Francis is being done by lefties. Of the 15 homers he has surrendered, 12 have been to players hitting from the left side of the plate. I’ve looked at a lot of tape and sifted through a lot of data, and I can’t identify what it is that those hitters are seeing, or what Francis is doing differently that has led to that extreme of a split, but there has to be something going on. Two of his worst pitches of the year were middle-middle offerings to Christian Walker and Alex Bregman, and those represent two of the righties that have taken Francis out of the park. I'd argue that none of the home run pitches he has thrown to lefties were as meaty as those two. Some have caught more plate than is ideal, but for the most part, the lefties that have gone deep have done it on arguably tougher pitches. I wasn’t content to just look at Francis’ first nine starts this season, so for comparison, I also looked at his final nine starts of last season. This, of course, includes the historic span of games that earned Francis AL Pitcher of the Month honours for August. This also includes two games where Francis took no-hitters into the ninth inning. Both of those no-hit bids were broken up with home runs. There was another one-hit game in that stretch where the only hit he surrendered was a round-tripper. Overall, in those final nine games, Francis gave up seven home runs – a total he would surely trade for at this point. Even then, for as well as he pitched, the percentage of the hits he gave up that left the yard was higher last season (29%) than this year (27%). A fly ball pitcher is going to have unlucky stretches, and hopefully that’s all this turns out to be, but the focus has certainly been drawn, and the Jays can’t afford to have another questionable spot in the rotation if they’re serious about their postseason aspirations. Last year, Francis' splitter never left the yard. In fact, the only hits to come off of his splitter were singles. Lefties barrelled his splitter just three times, with all three dying at the warning track. This season, the splitter is at five barrels already, with three of those leaving the park as homers. On April 28, Leo Morgenstern wrote about Francis not fooling hitters anymore and noted the velocity drop on his splitter. The next day (April 29), five different Red Sox went yard. In the next game (Cleveland at home), Francis kept the ball in the park. In Seattle, it was Tellez (of course) going deep, and in Francis' next start (Detroit at home), two Tigers left their cage (that’s not a real saying, but I’m going with it). The Padres continued that trend. Fernando Tatis Jr. leads their team in homers, but it was the matchups against the lefties Sheets (HR) and Jackson Merrill (two hits) that produced the damage in Francis' four innings of work. These heat maps show Francis' splitter locations in 2024 (left/top) and 2025 (right/bottom). It was definitely catching more of the zone last season, and opposing batters produced a wOBA of .173 and an average exit velocity of 87.9 mph against it. This season, despite the pitch missing the zone more often, those numbers have jumped to a .416 wOBA and a 94.8 mph average exit velocity. With its decreased velocity, the case can be made that hitters are able to pick up the splitter a bit sooner to lay off when it's coming in low and punish it when it catches the zone. The good news, at least in the short term, is that Francis' matchup tonight is with the Texas Rangers. Their top four home run hitters are all right-handed bats, and their top lefty (Corey Seager) is currently on the 10-day IL. Catcher Jonah Heim represents the biggest left-handed power threat. Or if you prefer a dark horse, watch out for the at-bats against Alejandro Osuna, the Rangers rookie who just made his MLB debut on Sunday. He's made some hard contact in his first two games (extreme small sample alert!) and could run into one if things don't break Francis' way. View full article

Daulton Varsho returned from the injured list on April 29 following offseason shoulder surgery and has been absolutely mashing the ball. He leads the team in slugging and is tied for the lead in home runs and triples. The offensive outburst is as welcome as it is surprising, but that’s not what I’m here to talk about today; Jays Centre's Jim Scott already wrote about the bat over the weekend. Varsho won his first Gold Glove last season and led the Blue Jays to their second consecutive Gold Glove Team Award. I also think there’s an easy case to be made that he was robbed of a Gold Glove in 2023 as well, just because he shared the outfield with Kevin Kiermaier – but we’ll save that debate for another day. All of that to say, Varsho is known for his glove, so much so that he’s made some unbelievable plays look routine, and I don’t want to take that for granted. In fact, before we get to the plays Varsho has made this season, we’re going to start with one he didn’t. Leading off the top of the second inning at Rogers Centre on May 16, Riley Greene hit a solo home run to left-centre field. It was measured at 402 feet and would have been a homer in 24 out of 30 major league stadiums. Funnily enough, the Tigers' home field (Comerica Park) would have contained this ball, and you can bet, given how far up the wall he got, Varsho would’ve made the catch there. Seriously, take a second to check that link out if you haven't already. Not only does Varsho scale the wall to a height I’ve never seen at the Rogers Centre, but he does it with his characteristic seeming effortlessness. It was a noble and visually stunning enough effort to catch the attention of LJ Rader, who runs the ArtButMakeItSports accounts on various social media platforms. Comparing Varsho at the apex of his climb to Banksy’s Well Hung Lover seems apt in a PG-13 way that I think Daulton would appreciate. Shifting to the catches Varsho has made, we’ll be leaning on Statcast’s star ranking system. They give each playable ball a percentage-based catch probability that accounts for opportunity time, travel distance required and direction: 0-25% - 5 Star 26-50% - 4 Star 51-75% - 3 Star 76-90% - 2 Star 91-95% - 1 Star Anything above 95% doesn’t get a star; outfielders are just expected to make those plays. A more detailed description of what goes into the classification of catches can be found here. For an example of a ball with 95% catchability that landed for a hit, I will refer you to this play from 2022 that Jays fans certainly remember: Raimel Tapia’s inside-the-park grand slam. Now, on to the Var-show! 1-Star Catches Not all 1-star catches are created equal. Varsho has made four such catches so far this season. Two of them were fairly standard in appearance. He routinely gets such good jumps on contact and takes such efficient routes that he makes 1-star catches standing still and waiting for the ball to arrive. This home run-saving catch up against the wall surprisingly also only got one star, though based on Kevin Gausman’s reaction, I’d say this one deserves to be ranked higher: And then we have the unicorn: Statcast only looks at the cold, hard, measurable facts. Varsho had to travel 67 feet in 5.8 seconds to make this warning track catch. It doesn’t care that his feet got tangled on the route, or that two of those 5.8 seconds were spent in a tumble with his back to the ball, or that when he did make the catch he was on one knee, looking over his shoulder and stabbing his left arm out at an awkward angle. It certainly doesn’t care about how quick and cool his behind-the-back ball transition was. Easily the most impressive 1-star catch of the Statcast Era. 2-Star Catches Once again, Varsho has four qualifying catches in this category – one in each direction. They’re all pretty routine-looking. Again, he gets such quick and efficient jumps on contact that he’s in position with plenty of time. We’ve got a sharp line drive that was hit 31 feet in front of him, a ball 71 feet to his left, one 83 feet to his right and one that backed him up to the warning track, 63 feet behind him. 3-Star Catches Two entries at this level, and both come in with a 50% chance of being caught. Here we can really see the difficulty ramping up. On this catch, Varsho ranges to his right in a sprint, covering the 69 feet needed and even has to mix in a little half-slide to finish the grab in 4.2 seconds from the release of the pitch. On the other, he has to go 76 feet straight back to the wall, and his momentum sends him crashing into the padding with significant force: 4-Star Catches Daulton Varsho hasn’t made a 4-star catch yet this season. He hasn’t missed any either, he just hasn’t had an opportunity for one. Six other Blue Jays have had 10 combined chances to make a 4-star play, but nine of them have dropped in for hits. The only successful defensive effort on one of these balls was this diving grab by Myles Straw in left field. He only had 3.1 seconds to cover the ground needed to make the play (40% catchability). Straw is a Gold Glove winner in his own right, and while his acquisition ahead of this season was not widely celebrated, he’s been better than advertised when called upon and is as easy of a defensive substitution call in late innings as maybe any player the Jays have ever had. 5-Star Catches Varsho only has one 5-star catch this season (so far), but it's a beauty: He covers 87 feet in the blink of an eye (4.7 seconds) and makes the catch (5% probability) at full extension with enough time and space to slide and slow his approach into the wall. Not to be outdone, Straw has a pair of 5% catches to his name this season. Both of Straw’s efforts saw him travel towards right-centre, covering 93 and 102 feet to make his grabs. Of all the players with more than one Out Above Average (OAA) this season, none has a higher total catch percentage than Varsho. The Statcast rating system lends itself very well to the analytics vs. eye-test debate, but I think that anyway you slice it, the Blue Jays got a great one in Daulton Varsho. View full article

How I stopped worrying and learned to love the K, indeed!

Weekly Snapshot: Record Last Week: 2-4 (Overall: 22-24) Run Differential Last Week: -6 (Overall: -27) Standings: Place in AL East (4.5 GB), 10th in AL (3.0 GB of Third Wild Card) Last Week’s Results May 12 - 18 Game 41: TB 11 - TOR 9 Jose Berrios: 5.1 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 4 K, 3 BB Daulton Varsho: 2 HR HRs for Ernie Clement and Bo Bichette Hoffman: blown save (0.1 IP, 4 H, 5 ER, 1 K, 1 BB) Game 42: TOR 3 - TB 1 Chris Bassitt: 5.2 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 6 K, 2 BB Alejandro Kirk: 2 for 4, 3-run HR, and threw out Chandler Simpson Game 43: TB 8 - TOR 3 Kevin Gausman: 5.2 IP, 10 H, 6 ER, 6 K, 0 BB Bichette: 3 for 4 Addison Barger, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Nathan Lukes all with solo HRs Lukes: OF assist Game 44: DET 5 - TOR 4 Bowden Francis: 4.2 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 6 K, 2 BB Varsho: Hit HR, climbed WAY up the wall on Greene’s HR Vladdy: 500th career run Jonatan Clase: OF assist Bichette: HR Game 45: TOR 2 - DET 1 Eric Lauer, Yariel Rodriguez, Brendon Little, Chad Green, Yimi Garcia, and Jeff Hoffman: 9 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 7 K, 2 BB Clement walk off RBI Kirk game-tying RBI Lukes OF assist Game 46: DET 3 - TOR 2 Berrios: 6.0 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 4 K, 1 BB Left nine on base, leadoff runner on 5 times Highlights: Daulton Varsho continues to defy the odds, both with his bat and in the field. Three home runs on the week - including one off the face of the 500 level! Plus, we’ve come to expect the weekly defensive highlights. He couldn’t stop Reily Greene’s home run against Detroit, but he went higher up the outfield wall than anyone I can recall and garnered the notice of Art, but Make it Sports. Not to be outdone by Varsho, a couple of his outfield mates came up with big OF assists this week, with Nathan Lukes and Jonathan Clase showing off their arms. Alejandro Kirk only had three hits this week, but one was the game-tying RBI against Detroit; the others came in the win over Tampa, where Kirk’s 3-run HR brought in all the runs Toronto would score that game. Bo Bichette, Varsho, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. were the three Jays with wRC+ at 200 or higher this week. All three swung the bat well. Lowlights: Jeff Hoffman had some solid appearances later in the week, but when you start it off with a grand slam blown save in the first game of the week, you’re going to be in the lowlight section every time. It took until the last game of the week for a Jays starter to see the end of the 6th inning. The bullpen has been good, but the more they’re called on, the more trouble we can get into. Anthony Santander went 1 for 12 in the Tampa series. Then missed a pair of games against Detroit, dealing with a shoulder issue (he came in as a pinch hitter in the second game). He returned on Sunday, but found himself hitting 6th (his first time outside of the 3-spot). He went 0 for 4 with 3 Ks and didn’t inspire much confidence. News, Notes, and Not Playing Day-to-Day: Anthony Santander, Santander missed a couple of games with a “cranky shoulder” and DH’d on Sunday. 10-day IL: Andrés Giménez Giménez is ramping up baseball activities. 15-day IL: Nick Sandlin Sandlin planning to throw off a mound early this week 60-day IL: Max Sherzer, Erik Swanson, Ryan Burr Swanson and Burr are currently rehabbing with Buffalo. Scherzer felt some tightness after throwing to hitters this week. Looking Ahead With an off day and a Holiday Monday here in Toronto, the Jays get a break before the Padres come to town. After that 3-game set, it’s down to Florida to take on the Rays in their temporary home at Steinbrenner Field. View full article

Ahead of spring training, we looked at some milestones that Blue Jays players might reach this season. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. getting to 500 runs is the last of the “Ironclad Locks” to fall, with Andrés Giménez's 100th stolen base and José Berríos’ 100th win being the others. The big part of Vladdy's milestone, of course, is that he’s scored all 500 with the Jays. As we celebrate the 500th, we look back and reflect on all the runs that led to this point. His first run came in his 14th game with the Jays. He had reached base 15 times previously, but those behind him in the order failed to drive him in. His first 13 games in a Toronto uniform represent his longest career scoring drought. So, in the top of the first inning against Nick Vincent and the San Francisco Giants, Vladdy took things into his own hands and scored his first run as a Blue Jay in a package deal with his first home run. A solo shot to deep CF. Fittingly, at the end of that video, one of Vladdy’s former teammates, Teoscar Hernández, is seen celebrating with him (and helping clear sunflower seeds out of his hair). Hernández was responsible for driving Vladdy home 38 times, the second-most of any teammate Guerrero has had. Topping the list is Alejandro Kirk with 42. Altogether, forty different teammates have had a hand in getting Vladdy to this milestone. After Kirk and Hernández, it’s Bo Bichette (27), Randal Grichuk (24), Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (19), and Matt Chapman (17) at the top of the list. Those six have combined to bring Guerrero home almost as many times as Vladdy has done it himself (165). Not surprisingly, Guerrero has scored most of his runs against AL East opponents, with his 71 against Baltimore topping the list. He has 61 against Boston, 48 against Tampa Bay, and 40 when facing the Yankees. His 27 runs against Kansas City represent the most outside of the division, and his 13 against Philly the most against an NL team. Despite having scored ten more runs against the Orioles than the Red Sox, Vladdy has more runs scored at Fenway Park than at any other away location. In his career with the Jays, Vladdy has taken at least one plate appearance from every spot in the order but has only scored runs when batting in the 2-6 holes. He has the most plate appearances batting third, so it’s no surprise that he’s scored more (312 times) from that spot in the lineup than anywhere else. What is a little shocking is that his runs per plate appearance are highest when batting fifth. It’s a marginal increase, but surprising nonetheless. Don’t worry, you won’t be seeing any “Should Vladdy Hit Lower in the Order?” articles from me. His 25 runs to this point in the season have him just outside of the top 10 in the AL at 17th (one run behind a 6-player tie with 26 runs). He finished eighth both last season and in 2022. In 2021, when the Jays had their most prolific offense of the last decade, Vladdy led both the team and the entire league with his 123 runs scored. After getting on base in a very uncharacteristic fashion, with a slow-rolling infield single, Vladdy was in position for the milestone. Guerrero's 500th run came courtesy of a Daulton Varsho home run in the 6th inning against Detroit. He’s scored runs in every inning, including 11 in extras, but he's scored in the 6th more than any other. Most runs in the great game of baseball are scored when a batter drives them in. In Vladdy's case, he has done it himself with a home run about one-third of the time (165 times). Slightly under two-thirds of the time, it has been a teammate getting him home with a hit (or sacrifice) of their own (323 times). Then, on very rare occasions, he hasn't been driven in at all. That is to say, he has scored a run where no RBI is granted (12 times). Things like scoring on a wild pitch or coming home while the batter grounds into a double play are two examples of what I like to call the "Mystery Bag" of runs. In the extremely rare case of an extra innings run overlapping with the ‘Mystery Bag’ portion of his runs scored, we have this beautiful case of heads-up baserunning where Vladdy scored from third on a wild pitch in the 10th inning: If he keeps this pace up, we should be back here in 2032 celebrating the next 500. Hope to see you all then! View full article

Tuesday night against the Angels, Jeff Hoffman was brought in to stop the bleeding after Yimi García and some bad luck saddled him with a blown save and the Jays with a tied game. Instead, Hoffman turned in his worst performance of the season (to date), allowing the inherited runners plus three of his own to score and put the game out of reach. All in just nine pitches. For better or worse, that brief appearance on Tuesday meant that Hoffman was available again the next night. This time, coming in with a clean slate and a two-run lead, Hoffman loaded the bases (a walk and two singles) before recording the first out. The next batter, Jorge Soler, cleared the bases with a double and walked off the Jays and Hoffman. A week before those two games, we named Hoffman the runner-up for the Pitcher of the Month award, and there was a case to be made that he could have won that award. Are the back-to-back blowups the sign of a trend? Is the closer's job in jeopardy? Would the Jays have been better off just re-signing Jordan Romano? Let’s tackle those questions in reverse order. First off, no, Romano would not be a help right now. In case you haven’t followed his move to Philly, it’s been a struggle. His current bWAR (-0.7), ERA (9.45), ERA+ (45), and WHIP (1.800) all represent career worsts, which, given how his 2024 in Toronto went, is quite a feat. I think it’s also premature to start talking about a threat to Hoffman’s role. He wasn’t guaranteed the closer role when he was signed, but he was given the first shot at it, and before his last two appearances, he had earned seven saves behind a 1.45 FIP and 1.10 ERA. Yimi García would be the first logical name to threaten the role, but his struggles in Anaheim roughly washes out the argument. Mason Fluharty and Brendon Little have pitched well and likely earned some trust in higher leverage situations, but I don’t think they’ve entered the closer discussion yet. Nick Sandlin and Chad Green each have one save to their names and came in games when both Hoffman and García were unavailable. The Jays have been aggressive in terms of managing their bullpen personnel on the active roster. Still, I expect them to be more conservative with the ninth inning assignment, especially in save situations. In the James Bond book, Goldfinger, Ian Fleming wrote, “Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times is enemy action.” With Hoffman’s struggles, we’re still in the coincidence phase. I looked at his relief appearances going back to 2021 to see if I could find any enemy action (or a trend). Including this season, Jeff Hoffman has made 192 appearances in regular-season relief and has given up three or more earned runs seven times (two this week). Prior to this week, he’s followed up with improved performance in his next appearance every time. This week also marked the first time he pitched on back-to-back days after that shaky outing. I looked at his history of giving up runs when pitching on 0 days rest, and there’s a slight bump when he has at least one day rest (roughly 0.2 runs/inning), but nothing significant. There is an inherent small sample issue with relievers, so breaking things down further yielded similar coincidental results. He’s had one other appearance in Angel Stadium (a clean inning and earned the save in 2024), he’s faced the Angels three times before that, and has never given up a run. With Alejandro Kirk or Tyler Heineman catching, his peripheral stats are pretty similar, too. The earned runs are heavily skewed, but I think we’re safe calling it a coincidence for now. View full article