Mike LeSage

It started as a tight game in both directions, with the lowest-scoring first six innings of the series. To that point, the Jays had used five pitchers in their planned bullpen game: Louis Varland, Mason Fluharty, Seranthony Domínguez, Eric Lauer and Yariel Rodríguez. The only blemish was a solo home run surrendered by Fluharty to Yankees lefty third baseman Ryan McMahon. All things considered, the pitch from Fluharty wasn’t bad: a sweeper away in the lefty/lefty matchup that McMahon was able to sit back on and get enough of a barrel on to put it into the stands. The only other hit given up by Toronto pitching was a first-inning single to Aaron Judge. You could argue that manager John Schneider was being overly aggressive with his bullpen management, but you couldn’t argue with the results. The Yankees, meanwhile, had only used one pitcher. Cam Schlittler scattered seven hits through six innings, and the Jays had been able to manufacture two runs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s single drove in George Springer from second base in the first inning, and then Springer followed up in the fifth with a sac fly to bring home Ernie Clement. Then came the seventh inning… The top of the seventh began like few of the previous innings, with a Blue Jays out; Toronto had put the lead runner on in four of the first six innings previously. Anthony Santander’s foul out was followed by an Ernie Clement single – his ninth hit of the series. Andrés Giménez was next to the plate, and it appeared that his 88-mph grounder up the middle (a ball that Schlittler waved at, but pulled his glove back on) would lead to an inning-ending double play. Instead, the final hop of the ball caught Jazz Chisholm Jr. off guard, and he deflected the ball into centre field. The inning continued, and Schlittler was lifted after 88 pitches as the Yankees turned to their 'pen. Giménez stole second on a Devin Williams strikeout of Springer, which put runners on second and third with Nathan Lukes coming to the plate. Lukes didn’t see a pitch in the zone, but it didn’t matter. He took an elevated fastball and sent it into centre field. His single cashed in both runs and provided the game with its largest win probability added jump to that point, by a wide margin: 18.1% in favour of the Jays, bringing their overall game win expectancy to 89%. The bottom of the seventh brought the Jays' sixth pitcher of the game, Brendon Little. A leadoff walk to Paul Goldschmidt and a two-out single to Amed Rosario brought a bit of drama. Two runners on, Trent Grisham at the plate and the fearsome Judge in the on-deck circle representing the potential go-ahead run. Little was able to induce a pop-up into foul territory, and the Jays escaped the inning with a 4-1 lead. Alejandro Kirk led off the eighth with a double and tagged up to move to third on a deep fly ball to right field by Daulton Varsho. Then it was Myles Straw’s turn to stir the drink. Having entered the game as a defensive substitution for Santander, Straw was able to get his bat on a slider down in the zone and sent it into right field to bring home Kirk. 5-1 Jays. Braydon Fisher came in for the bottom of the eighth and started off hot, getting Judge to strike out on five pitches. He then got Cody Bellinger to pop out, but a single to Giancarlo Stanton and a walk to Chisholm made things a little tense again. John Schneider then turned to his eighth pitcher of the game, closer Jeff Hoffman. The Hoff walked Ben Rice to load the bases, and an entire fan base suddenly flashed to a worst-case scenario. Instead, a fly out to Straw in left ended the inning, and a stream of Yankees fans started their exit from the stadium. Nathan Lukes led off the ninth with a double; it was the sixth time the Jays started an inning with a leadoff hit. A groundout and two K’s would strand Lukes and take us to the bottom of the ninth, where a couple of hits and a run scored by the Yankees were filed into the ‘too little, too late’ bin. Hoffman, while not looking the most dialed in we’ve seen him, got the job done, striking out Bellinger to end the game and send the Jays to the ALCS. They will host either Seattle or Detroit on Thanksgiving weekend at the Rogers Centre. There were mixed feelings around the Blue Jays fan community as Game 4 was telegraphed to be a bullpen game. Only three starters made the roster for the ALDS, and two of those starters, Kevin Gausman and Trey Yesavage, made mid-game trips to the bullpen ‘just in case.’ Ultimately, they weren’t called on, but they were there and they were ready. The eight pitchers that were used put up a pitching line to be proud of: 9 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 10 K. Every single one of those guys deserves praise. Schneider and pitching coach Pete Walker get some shine too. Like I said at the top, you might not have agreed with their moves, but we can’t argue with the results. The Jays have talked all season about what a close-knit group they’ve become, and they used the ultimate team game to advance to the ALCS for the first time since 2016. I’m not leaving out praise for the bats either; it was a team effort on the other side of the ball. Twelve hits for the team. Eight out of nine spots in the order got at least one knock. In an alternate timeline, we might bemoan the team's 3-for-17 showing with runners in scoring position, or the nine runners left on base, but they did enough. With four hits and three runs from the bottom of the order, a Jays team that proved itself relentless with no easy sections of the order made each at-bat count and secured the win. Nineteen Blue Jays appeared in this game, and they all had a hand in getting to this point and moving on. Like John Schneider said in his post-game celebration speech: Start spreading the news, bitches! View full article

Best piece of perspective I can share is that the '92 and '93 teams didn't have a sweep in their runs.

Hell yeah! What a great countdown.

Before this series began, we took a look at how the Blue Jays might manage their rotation. I floated a number of names as potential Game 2 starters, including Trey Yesavage, but ultimately landed on Chris Bassitt for the second game and penciled Yesavage in for Game 4. Well, now that we have two games in the rearview (and considering Bassitt isn't even on the roster this round), I can’t imagine things having played out any more perfectly than the way they did. Yesavage didn’t just hold his own in his start – he dominated. Yesavage became the first pitcher outside of the Rays organization to make a postseason start within his first four MLB appearances (Shane Baz and Matt Moore both did it with TB). Before the first pitch, Yesavage had already made Blue Jays history as the youngest pitcher to make a postseason start for the franchise. The rookie was lights out from pitch one. In the first inning, all three outs came via strikeout. All three on splitters and all three against lefties (Trent Grisham, Cody Bellinger and Ben Rice). Yesavage joins Blue Jay greats Pat Hentgen and Juan Guzman as the only Toronto pitchers to open a playoff game with three strikeouts in the first inning. Guzman and Hentgen both did it in the 1993 World Series (Games 1 and 3, respectively). In the third inning, Yesavage struck out the side (Anthony Volpe, Austin Wells and Grisham), bringing his game total to seven. After striking out the side again in the fourth inning (Aaron Judge, Bellinger and Rice), he was at 10, tying him with Patrick Corbin for the most K's through four innings in postseason history. His six consecutive strikeouts are also a record, tying him with seven other pitchers, including Justin Verlander, who accomplished the feat twice. In the fifth inning, Jazz Chisholm Jr. would reach base on an error charged to Vladimir Guerrero Jr., keeping Yesavage’s no-hit bid intact. The righty would end the inning with another strikeout of Anthony Volpe for his 11th and final K of the day. Those 11 strikeouts are the most by a Toronto pitcher in a postseason start in franchise history. The previous high of eight was shared by David Price (call him David Twice, because he did it two times), Guzman and Dave Stieb. As noted by Sarah Langs of MLB.com, Stieb’s performance was also his playoff debut. Prior to this game, the most postseason swings and misses recorded by a Blue Jay was Marco Estrada’s 16 in 2016. Yesavage set a new mark with 18. Those 18 misses came against only 31 total swings for a whiff rate of 58%. That’s the most in postseason history (since 2008, when pitch tracking came into use) with a qualifying swing total of 25 (via Langs). At 22 years old, Yesavage also became the second-youngest player to record 10+ strikeouts in a playoff game. John Candelaria was 99 days younger when he struck out 14 in 1975. Yesavage put up a Game Score of 78 with his dominant performance, placing him second in team postseason history. Only Dave Stieb’s 83 in the 1985 ALCS (the same game in which he struck out eight and set the franchise record for K’s in a game that Yesavage just obliterated) is higher. With Toronto on the brink of eliminating the Yankees, Yesavage should get the opportunity to add to his lore, stats and history in the ALCS – and depending on how the rest of this series shakes out, he could even be our Game 1 starter next time. View full article

In our review of Game 1, we looked at the at-bats that generated at least a 10% swing in win probability. If we went that route for Game 2, this would be a real short read. There was only one AB in the whole game that crossed that threshold. That was Ernie Clement’s two-run home run in the second inning. After Daulton Varsho’s ‘triple’ (scored a double with an error) increased the Jays' chance of winning by 9.8%, Clement’s homer furthered that advantage by 10.4%. By the end of the third inning, the Jays' win probability was over 90% and would remain above 90% for the duration of the game. By the time the Yankees were roughing up Tommy Nance in the seventh inning, from a probability standpoint, they could not afford to trade outs for runs. This meant that a play like Cody Bellinger’s sacrifice fly, which scored Paul Goldschmidt, was actually scored as improving the Jays' chances of winning. In a four-batter span, the Yankees added five runs to their total, bringing the game from 13-2 to 13-7. A lot of people (myself included) were getting far less cocky than we had been just a couple of innings earlier. The Jays' win probability wasn’t phased; it went from 99.7% all the way down to 99.1%. Since we don’t have a lot of plays that led to large win probability swings to drill down on, let’s look at the players who made the largest cumulative contributions. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 11% WPA (3-for-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 2 R) Vladdy continued to terrorize the Yankees. He hit the first grand slam in Blue Jays postseason history. Yankees starter Max Fried came out to start the fourth inning but was lifted before recording an out. The pitcher that manager Aaron Boone turned to was Will Warren. Warren, to his credit, recorded more outs than Fried did, pitching 4.2 innings; the four home runs he surrendered perhaps point to an overused bullpen or a manager who had already thrown in the towel. Regardless of the reasoning behind Boone's pitching decisions, the results were the results, and now Guerrero will always be the answer to the question: Who hit the first Jays playoff grand slam? Ernie Clement: 14% WPA (3-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 R) As noted above, Clement’s homer was the biggest win expectancy swing of the game. Batting sixth and playing third base, he was mainly in the lineup for his glove; the Jays started five Gold Glovers to back up their rookie pitcher (we’ll get to him soon) and, as noted in the pre-game broadcast, Clement is a favourite to win the utility player Gold Glove this season. A lineup built for defense really brought the offense, and Clement led the charge. Daulton Varsho: 16% WPA (4-for-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 4 R) Speaking of Gold Glovers playing like Silver Sluggers, Varsho had as many extra-base hits against Fried as he had against left-handed pitching all season. He also went deep twice off of Warren. His first double was originally ruled a triple before the official scorekeeper had a look at Aaron Judge’s whiff in the outfield, not to be confused with his whiffs at the plate (again, we’ll get there!), and took us off of cycle watch. Varsho earned an honourable mention for Jays Centre's Hitter of the Year, and with the way he’s started these playoffs, he surely wants to be in the running for postseason honours too. Trey Yesavage: 18% WPA (5.1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 11 K) Five and a third innings of no-hit baseball in his postseason debut and only his fourth start at the major league level. Yesavage faced 18 batters and struck out 11 of them. His performance was so electric (a word seemingly required to describe the young hurler) that manager John Schneider was booed by the hometown crowd when he came out of the dugout to lift Yesavage from the game. In post-game remarks, Schnieder said he turned to some of the vets in the dugout and said, “Wish me luck!” before heading out to the mound. After two dominant performances at home, the Jays will head to the Bronx and look to Shane Bieber to continue the string of great starting pitching performances, as they strive to wrap this series up in the minimum number of games. View full article

The Blue Jays have won their first playoff game in almost a decade, and it couldn’t have been scripted any better than the way it played out. Every Jays starter had a hit, drove in a run, or scored. The pitchers were all efficient and limited the damage to just one run and six hits against a potent Yankees lineup. The game ended 10-1, but there were some big plays that swung the pendulum more than others. Using FanGraphs Win Probability Added, the biggest plays were as follows. +10.6% WPA - Vladimir Guerrero Jr. homers in the first inning. Vladdy’s three hits yesterday doubled his career playoff total, but none were bigger than his first-inning home run to open the scoring. The face of the franchise had been struggling throughout September, but a week off and a calendar flip to October have Guerrero Jr. looking like the cornerstone we love. +9.4% WPA - Alejandro Kirk homers in the second inning. I was going to limit this recap to the plays that generated at least a 10% swing, but I couldn’t leave this Kirk home run out. Following in Vladdy’s footsteps, we have another Jay hitting his first career postseason dinger. This home run, while early in the game and only giving the Jays a two-run lead, pushed their overall win probability over 75% -10.1% WPA - Austin Wells singles in the sixth inning and moves Anthony Volpe to 3B. With none out in the sixth, Wells' hit put runners on the corners and the go-ahead run at the plate. It was a time for Jays fans to hold their breath a little more than usual. +10.4% WPA - Kevin Gausman strikes out Aaron Judge. Gausman induced 12 swing and misses in yesterday's game, but the two whiffs by Judge in this at-bat, with the bases loaded and none out, were beyond huge. In post-game remarks, Gausman said he wasn’t afraid to walk Judge in this spot, because he could only hurt them for one run. For his part, Judge was clearly thinking Gausman would challenge him more and be in the zone. Instead, Gausman threw a perfect splitter, down and away, and all Judge could do was weakly wave at it. -13.4% WPA - Kevin Gausman walks Cody Bellinger. The walk that Gausman wasn’t afraid to issue to Judge ends up going to Bellinger in the next at-bat. With the bases still loaded and just the one out, the Yankees seemed poised to do some damage. The walk brought the Jays' win expectancy down to 50.3%, a coin toss, and the lowest it had been since the first inning. +12.1% WPA - Ben Rice pops out with the infield fly rule in effect. The last batter Gausman would face popped out and had the Jays on the verge of escaping the inning with the lead intact and the damage limited. +12% WPA - Louis Varland strikes out Giancarlo Stanton to end the sixth inning. Varland entered the game for the largest leverage at bat of the game and got Stanton to strike out on a 101 MPH fastball - the fastest pitch of the game. It also marked four straight at-bats with win percentage swings of over 10% and was the fifth one of the inning. As great as all the runs scored by the Jays were, this stretch of at-bats was the clear pivot point of the game, and Gausman and Varland were at their best. The Jays would go on to add eight more runs from this point. Four in each of the seventh and eighth innings. A second home run for Kirk, Nathan Lukes with 3 RBI, 17 at bats over the two innings, and perhaps most importantly: burning through the Yankees’ bullpen. Sticking with a win probability viewpoint, both stars, Gausman, Guerrero, and Seranthony Domínguez were responsible for 10% WPA each over the course of the game, but just edging them out is Varland at 11%. Louis Varland is the high-leverage king of Toronto. Who might we see step up for Game 2? Blue Jays Bullpen Usage TUE WED THU FRI SAT TOT Yesavage 0 0 0 0 0 0 Varland 0 0 0 0 16 16 Little 0 0 0 0 14 14 S. Domínguez 0 0 0 0 7 7 Lauer 0 0 0 0 0 0 Hoffman 0 0 0 0 17 17 Rodriguez 0 0 0 0 0 0 Fluharty 0 0 0 0 0 0 Bruihl 0 0 0 0 0 0 View full article

Wasn't what I expected, but I don't hate it. Especially if (when!) we sweep them!

So much is going to depend on the outcomes of the games beforehand too. Going to NY up 2-0 is a lot different than going there with a split (or worse). I liked Schneider's comments today though - he didn’t quite commit to selling out for the win in each game, but I got the feeling they're not going to leave someone in the pen they 'might need tomorrow' if they're the right move for the moment.

With the number of pitching pieces Toronto has, it can feel like a little bit of a puzzle trying to put them together in the optimal order. Of course, a puzzle usually only has one correct way to solve it. Maybe this Jays rotation is more like a task on Taskmaster: an opportunity for some lateral thinking and unconventional solutions. In a press conference on Friday afternoon, when asked if he prepares differently for a best-of-five versus a best-of-three series, manager John Schneider responded, "You can get a little bit creative, and that’s what we’re working through now.” He also noted that it was "all hands on deck" for each game in terms of managing to win, so let’s go through the pieces I think we’re working with and see where he might fit them. Kevin Gausman: Our Starter of the Year gets Game 1 and (if necessary) probably Game 5. John Schneider confirmed Gausman for the first game, but made no commitment to future games for Gausman or the rest of the staff. No reason to get overly cute here (we can save that for the middle games). He’s the best pitcher we have, and when he’s on his game, he’s as good as anybody left in the playoffs. With off days on Monday and Thursday, spreading a (potential) five-game series out over seven days, a Game 5 start is easily in play. Ultimately, we hope Toronto wins the series earlier, so we won't sweat Game 5 too much yet, but we've locked Gausman into Game 1. Shane Bieber: When the Blue Jays traded for Bieber on deadline day, we immediately started thinking about where he would slot into the playoff rotation. After his debut start with Toronto, we were already starting to pencil him in as a potential Game 1 starter, but at this point, he’s probably the best call for Game 2. He’s come back down to earth a little since, but the key to his start is going to be his efficiency. He averaged just over four pitches per batter and flirted with 100 pitches per game during the regular season, but has yet to cross that threshold with the Jays. The deeper into a game he can go, the less Schneider will need to depend on his bullpen. Bullpen Game: Speaking of that bullpen... After their perfect start to a must-win game down the stretch, there has to be a real conversation about a three-headed monster of Louis Varland, Eric Lauer and Yariel Rodríguez. In their last ‘start,’ those three went six innings of no-hit, shutout baseball while striking out six. The lefty/righty mix also has the potential to cause some fits depending on how New York chooses to line up. The Yankees skewed their handedness matchups in the first two games of the Wild Card series, first against lefty Garrett Crochet (6 RHB started) and then against righty Brayan Bello (6 LHB started). For Game 3 (against lefty starter Connor Early), they went more balanced (5 LHB/4 RHB). The tricky thing with a bullpen game is how that changes the availability of guys out of the 'pen for the other games in the series. Taking that into consideration, and given the extra off days, Game 2 or 4 seems like the best time to go this route. Zooming out slightly, Game 2 feels too early for a fully rested staff to pitch by committee, but I’m not sure that a potential elimination game on the road is the place for it either. Let’s stick a pin in this one. Chris Bassitt: Bassitt ended the season on the IL but is eligible to return for this series. His multifarious pitch mix can keep hitters off balance and has led him to have one of the lowest average exit velocities and hard-hit rates of the qualified pitchers we are discussing today (only Yariel Rodríguez was better in either category). Bassitt is also a vet; at 36 years old, and with 11 years in the league, he has proven his steadiness. A hostile road crowd is unlikely to impact his performance, so he seems like a decent candidate to pitch Game 3 or 4. But wait! Let’s take a quick look at his home/away splits… Bassitt made 32 starts this year, 16 on the road and 16 at Rogers Centre. At home, he boasted an 8-0 record with a 2.71 ERA, but outside of Toronto, he went 3-9 with a 5.47 ERA. “Wins and ERA are terrible ways to evaluate a pitcher!” I hear you yelling. His FIP splits bring things closer, but he was still more than a full run worse on the road (3.48 vs 4.65). So maybe the road start isn’t the way to go, but with Gausman taking Games 1 and 5, that only leaves Game 2 as a home option. Trey Yesavage: The electric wonderboy has only thrown 14 innings at the major league level, but as we saw with the deciding game in the BOS/NYY Wild Card series, some rookie pitchers seem built for the spotlight. Yesavage has a splitter for the lefties and a slider for the righties, combined with a fastball that is league average for speed, but above average for rise, leading him to get the most whiffs in a game by any Blue Jays pitcher not named Gausman this season. Still, throwing a rookie into Yankee Stadium to start a playoff game, depending on the results of the previous games, might be too big of an ask. By my count, we’re now at three potential Game 2 starters (plus a bullpen option) and no one that I’m settled on to pitch on the road. Max Scherzer: Without question, Mad Max is going to want to start a game in this series. We all know the resume: three Cy Youngs, two World Series, future Hall of Famer and a gameday mentality strong enough that when Eric Lauer deadpanned he had been punched in the face by Scherzer for breaking his pre-game concentration, we weren’t immediately sure it was a joke. Scherzer, I 100% believe, would be unaffected by a rowdy crowd in the Bronx. Of course, the problem with Scherzer is that he’s given up four or more earned runs in five of his last six starts. Can we trust a start to the guy that couldn’t get out of the first inning in Kansas City less than two weeks ago? It’s also worth noting that it was facing the Yankees when Scherzer’s pitch tipping was first publicly discussed. Is there a chance that this was all part of some long con to set the Yankees up for a playoff masterclass from the wily vet, or have I just watched too many heist movies? Let’s pencil Max in for Game 4, and then erase it, and then lightly pencil it in again. Maybe the Jays just go out and win the first three games and we don’t have to sweat it until the next round. So there we have it. Six options for five games, and I’m pretty confident that Gausman gets two of five. I’ve cycled through a lot of options in my head this week, and I might have a different answer the second I hit ‘publish’ and every hour after that, but right now, here’s what I would do: Game 1: Gausman Game 2: Bassitt Game 3: Bieber Game 4: Yesavage Game 5: Gausman No Scherzer, and no bullpen game. I believe in Bassitt’s home splits, and if he struggles, I’m confident in Lauer, Varland, Rodríguez and almost every other arm in the bullpen coming in with an off-day the next day. I like the way our bullpen matches up, and I think with this mix of starters, Schneider can utilize them all effectively. All the Blue Jays have gotta do now is go out there and win some games. They don't have to officially announce their roster until tomorrow morning, and when they do, we'll have some more clues. View full article

Love that Lauer appears on both the Starter and Reliever of the Year lists. What a gem!

The Blue Jays starters as a group didn’t have the flashiest season. In fact, at times, they outright struggled. They ranked 20th in ERA (4.34), 24th in FIP (4.46) and 23rd in fWAR (8.5) over 162 games. Of the playoff-bound teams, only the Dodgers' starters earned fewer wins (LAD had 49 to TOR’s 50), while the Yankees, by comparison, finished with 16 more wins from their starters, leading the league with 66. Wins are an admittedly flawed stat to judge a pitcher with, but they help tell part of the story. If the story is told in chapters, we can look at our very own Pitcher of the Month awards to gain some perspective. I went back through our previous rankings and assigned a points system to them: the #1 spot was worth 5 points, #2 got 4 points, and so on down to the honourable mentions that earned one point apiece. So, using Max Scherzer as an example, he received honourable mentions in June and July to go along with a #2 finish in August for a season total of 6, which (spoiler alert) is fewer than the pitchers I have ranked above him. It’s not a perfect system, but maybe in a few years we’ll see some other publications start to use the JCPOTMST (Jays Centre Pitcher of the Month Season Total) as an evaluation tool (though we’ll probably tweak the acronym before then). The Honourable Mentions Our eventual winner should come as no surprise, and we’ll get to him in a minute, but there were some other starters that had seasons worthy of note. José Berríos didn’t have his best season as a Blue Jay. The Opening Day starter notched his 100th win in April, but accumulated only nine over the season - his lowest total in a full season here. Interestingly, Berríos has given up exactly 77 earned runs in each of the last three seasons. This year, however, he gave up those 77 in his fewest innings pitched (166), leaving him with an ERA of 4.17. His struggles led to a late-season move to the bullpen, marking the first time he has pitched out of the 'pen in his career. That was quickly followed by an IL stint (also a career first) that ended his season. While there were undoubtedly valleys to Berríos’ season, there were also peaks. His two best starts of the year came in back-to-back June appearances with wins over the Sox (both White and Red) in which he combined to throw 14.2 innings, striking out 13 batters while only surrendering six hits and zero earned runs. That propelled him to be our June PotM and gave him a season score of 7 (he also had a fourth-place finish in May). Eric Lauer started 15 games for the Jays in addition to making 13 appearances in relief. Surely the surprise of the season, Lauer has done everything asked of him and more. From June 11 until the end of August, he was exclusively a starter and went 6-1. His eight-inning win over the Tigers in late July was likely the best showing of his season and helped him earn Pitcher of the Month honours that month. His season score of 8 puts him in the company of names we never would have expected to see him with, and his bWAR of 2.2 was second-best of all pitchers on the team. It’s incredible to think where the Jays might have landed without Lauer’s presence this year. Chris Bassitt also turned in a bit of an unexpected season. Going into a contract year at age 36, there wasn’t a ton of external pressure on Bassitt. Especially with the Scherzer signing, Bassitt was expected to slot into the fourth or fifth spot in the rotation and just be a steady hand. Instead, he improved on his 2024 season by almost every metric. By fWAR, his 2.4 was second-best on the staff, and his 170.1 innings pitched were second-highest too. When the bullpen needed a rest, he was there. He even came out of the 'pen for one game against the Athletics when the relievers were especially taxed. That relief appearance came just days after Bassitt pitched a (rain-shortened) complete game against the White Sox in Chicago, earning the win. Like Berríos, Bassitt had his struggles, especially down the stretch. His last win came on July 23, and he went 0-5 across 10 starts after that, ending his season on the 15-day IL with lower back inflammation. He was the first-ever Jays Centre PotM and followed that up with an honourable mention and a third-place spot later in the year for a season score of 9 (tied for best on the team). Jays Centre's Starter of the Year Who could it be but Kevin Gausman? He was May’s PotM, a month that saw him run a streak of 119 batters without issuing a walk. When we were looking for an ace to lead the rotation, he was the first guy we always looked to. By Baseball Reference’s version of WAR, this was his best season as a Blue Jay with a 3.8 (FanGraphs has him at a 4.1, but that's one win less than his ‘22 and ‘23 seasons). In September, Gausman made not only his best start of the season, but the best start of his career in a complete game shutout of the (at the time) playoff-hopeful Houston Astros. His 193 innings pitched were a career high and led the team. He also led the team in strikeouts (189), FIP (3.42), WPA (1.49) and a number of other stats. He’s unanimously expected to be the Game 1 starter of the ALDS, no matter who Toronto faces – I even included a Gausman section in our ALDS preview! He loves the city, and we love him back. He’s our Starter of the Year. View full article

They made us wait until Game 162 before making it official, but the Toronto Blue Jays are the American League Champions. With the number one seed, they have given themselves homefield advantage and a bye directly to the ALDS. They await either the New York Yankees or the Boston Red Sox. We can argue the merits of the way MLB organizes its brackets, so that the one-seeded Jays will face either the #2 or #4 team (by record) in the League, but that’s long been the way the Jays have been forced to live in the AL East. Fittingly, the path out of the East goes through Toronto this year. Interestingly, Toronto has never faced the Yankees or Red Sox in the playoffs. So let’s take a look at those two rivals and see if there is one we’d rather face. Team: New York Yankees Record: 94-68 Record Against Toronto: 5-8 (1-6 at Rogers Centre) Top Hitters (fWAR): Aaron Judge (10.1), Cody Bellinger (4.9), Jazz Chisholm Jr. (4.4) Judge is 6-for-23 (.261) in 35 plate appearances with zero home runs and 0 RBI against current Jays pitchers. His home runs came against Chris Bassitt (x2) and Yimi García - both currently on the IL. Bassitt is, of course, eligible to come off the IL and may find himself as the starter in Game 3 or 4, so it is not a matchup to ignore. Bellinger hit .298 against Toronto this year with a pair of homers (Scherzer and Fluhart,y) with his best performances coming at Rogers Centre. Chisholm Jr. did the majority of his damage against Toronto in a pair of Scherzer starts (2 for 4 with 2 HRs and 5 RBI). Top Pitchers (fWAR): Max Fried (4.8), Carlos Rodon (3.2), Will Warren (2.1) Fried went 2-1 against the Jays this season, but posted an ERA just over four in four games and was responsible for the Canada Day homers surrendered to George Springer and Andrés Giménez. Rodón only faced the Jays twice, taking a loss and a no-decision. He only lasted five innings in each outing and held a WHIP of 1.9. Alejandro Kirk was 2-for-5 with a pair of doubles against Rodón. Warren only faced the Jays once and gave up 10 hits and eight earned runs in four innings - wouldn’t we love to see that again? Kevin Gausman against them: Gausman faced the Yankees four times this season, going 2-1. In his first start, he lacked the command we expect from our ace, and he didn’t make it out of the 3rd inning, walking five and giving up three hits to go along with six earned runs. His last two starts were much more in line with vintage Gausman: 15 combined innings and only allowing one earned run each game (both times a solo shot for Giancarlo Stanton). Team: Boston Red Sox Record: 89-73 Record Against Toronto: 5-8 (4-3 at Rogers Centre) Top Hitters (fWAR): Jarren Duran (3.8), Ceddanne Rafaela (3.6), Alex Bregman (3.5) Duran’s only home run against the Jays came against Bowden Franci, and otherwise he’s hit .240 against the Jays this season. Most notably, he has been hit twice (Hoffman and Heineman), so we may need to look for him crowding the plate in late innings. Rafaela’s only homer against Toronto came off Paxton Schultz, and his two hits against Scherzer are the most given up by any Jay. Over the season, Rafaela hit .231 in 39 ABs against the Jays. Bregman had a 3-for-5 day against Bowden Francis early in the season, but struggled overall against the Jays. He hit .205 on the season against Toronto, and in the series here last week, we went 1-for-11 across the three games played. Top Pitchers (fWAR): Garrett Crochet (5.8), Aroldis Chapman (2.6), Garrett Whitlock (2.2) Crochet is probably the pitcher on both teams I would least like to see again. He faced the Jays three times this season and got better with each start, culminating in an eight-inning, three-hit, dominant performance at Rogers Centre last week. Similarly, Chapman has not had many issues with the Blue Jays' bats he has faced this season. In five appearances, totaling five innings of work, he has not allowed a run and has only given up two hits, against seven strikeouts. Whitlock also has only five innings of work against the Jays this year, and they were able to get to him once for three earned runs, giving him a 5.40 ERA against Toronto. However, in his other three appearances, he allowed zero runs, gave up one hit, and struck out five batters. Kevin Gausman against them: Gausman only made two starts against the Red Sox and was a real mixed bag. In his first outing, he pitched one of his best games of the season, going eight innings and striking out 10 batters against four hits and zero earned runs. His more recent start against them saw Gausman getting touched up on his third time through the order and taking the loss after giving up four runs. So who do we want? We’ve seen how quickly things can change over the course of a week, and whoever comes out of the Wild Card round will have just beaten a very good opponent. The Yankees are on a hot streak to close out the regular season, going 9-1 down the stretch. The Red Sox at 6-4 are much closer to the Jays own 5-5 in their last ten. The Yankees’ bats are more fearsome, but the Boston pitching has given Toronto more fits. Boston is the better defensive team, with a fielding run value of +22, compared to the Yankees’ +7 (the Jays lead the League with a +45). Ultimately, I think I’d rather take my chances with Boston, but really, I just want every game of the Wild Card series to go to extra innings and whoever makes their way up here to be tired as hell. View full article

I'm interested to see what players and teams are bad at using the ABS system and squander their challenges. Like, will there be certain hitters that the team(s) tell to stop challenging? The pitching/catching tandem will at least have a second to (even wordlessly) communicate with each other before making a challenge, but will the hitter have time to look to their dugout or elsewhere? I'm in favour of the system, but I'm also excited to see what new chaos it brings.

The Atlanta Braves announced earlier today that they have claimed Alek Manoah. They moved second baseman Ozzie Albies from the 10-day IL to the 60-day to clear a spot on their 40-man roster. If they can help him regain the form that saw him compete for the Cy Young Award in 2022, this will be a nice feather in the cap of former Jays and current Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos. Of course, Manoah was taken in the first round of the 2019 draft, four years after Anthopoulos parted ways with Toronto, so this isn't simply a case of 'the old guy holding on to old scouting reports.' Current Jays GM Ross Atkins said of the decision to DFA Manoah: "This just came down to a roster crunch and us feeling like [this was] the best decision for us to hold depth and support this staff as we push forward into very important weeks." Manoah put up a 2.24 ERA over his rehab starts as he worked his way back from Tommy John surgery. The Jays clearly made an assessment that he would be unable to help their 2025 push for the playoffs, but there was always a feeling that he would be in the competition for a spot in the 2026 rotation. Atlanta, for their part, has already been eliminated from possible playoff contention this season after a disappointing year in the NL East. It is not out of the realm of possibility that they could even find a spot for Manoah on their 28-man roster to make a start against Pittsburgh in their final series of the year. Featured image courtesy of Brian Bradshaw Sevald-Imagn Images. View full rumor

I’ll put the disclaimer right up top. This article is about me and my conflicting feelings as I watch the Blue Jays play September baseball from atop the AL East. It might be that you share some of these feelings with me, or maybe you swing strongly in one direction. A lot happens over the course of 162 games. The last time the Jays led the division before this season was in April of 2022. The last time they led the division in September? That would be 2016, where a one-game lead on September 5 saw the Jays end the season four games back of Boston, holding third place in the division. This year and these Blue Jays are different, somehow. The majority of them are the same Blue Jays as last season – the same Blue Jays that finished 20 games back of the division lead. This year, the Jays have been in the driver's seat since finishing their four-game sweep of the Yankees on July 3. I can’t explain it, and I’ve spent a large chunk of the season waiting for the wheels to fall off. Don’t get me wrong, I’ve enjoyed every come-from-behind win (a win condition the Jays lead the league in), but I prefer the blowouts. It’s easy to support a team with lowered expectations. When you don’t expect them to win, the losses are easier to stomach. When they’re rebuilding? Easier still. But when they’re winning? And they keep winning? And they’ve defied the odds to go from a coin toss to even make the playoffs to being the favourites (among AL teams) to win the World Series? It’s a different story. Flipping the calendar back to February, when we were all counting the days until pitchers and catchers reported, I thought about the Jays and the upcoming season. I just wanted to see improvement. Playoffs would be nice, but just being in the hunt in September was where I set my expectations. Now, the Jays aren’t just in the hunt – they’re the hunted. They’ve clinched a playoff spot, they hold a two-game lead over their closest competition, and they're the odds-on favourite for a first-round bye and the AL pennant. So why do I feel so nervous? The Jays might be the most well-rounded AL team heading for the playoffs. There are causes for concern, sure. I can’t trust anyone in this bullpen, but I also find myself questioning John Schnieder’s use of them. Two thoughts seemingly at odds with each other. We’re going to debate endlessly the final decisions made for the playoff roster. Injuries and IL stints and rehab assignments might force a move here and there too. The pitching rotation went from having too many options to I don’t know who starts Game 3 in a real hurry. Every decision on every play is now under a microscope in a way that we haven’t seen in Toronto for years. The Wild Card losses of recent memory weren’t the same. Sure, they each brought their own kind of painful ‘what if’ moments against Minnesota, Seattle and Tampa Bay, but we didn’t go into those playoffs in the position that we have the potential to now. I’m already on the edge of my seat. I'm reminded of an old gambling joke that goes something like this: A man and his wife are in Las Vegas on vacation. After a day of walking the strip and taking in the sights, they return to their hotel/casino for a rest. The man says, “I've got $10 left over burning a hole in my pocket, I'm going to hit the casino floor first, and then I'll meet you back at the room.” He walks over to a roulette table and, being a Blue Jays fan, throws his money down on Roy Halladay's #32. Sure enough, it comes up 32, and that $10 becomes $360. He starts placing bets on more former Jays’ numbers, and on every spin he's hitting one of them. Soon his pile of chips begins to swell, and the number of observers does too. By the time he's pulling back the chips from hitting on Tony Fernández’s #1, the crowd around the table is eight or nine people deep, and he’s up over $10,000. Bystanders are clamoring over each other, yelling out former Jays' numbers. Cult heroes left and right. Soon, the man is up over six figures and starting to think about the extravagant things he’ll be buying in the near future. He takes a second to ponder his next move. He takes all of his winnings and splits it into two piles. One goes to George Bell’s #11 and the other to Josh Donaldson’s #20, two Jays MVPs. The croupier spins the wheel in one direction and the ball in the other. For a moment, anything is possible, the magical run continues. Then the ball begins its descent, it hits the wheel and begins bouncing, it bounces in and out of the #11 section and comes to rest on the zero. Al Oliver had never even been a consideration. A groan runs through the gathered observers, and then the crowd disperses. The man walks away alone. He heads back to his room where he’s greeted by his wife. “So, how’d you make out?” she asks. He replies with a shrug, “I lost ten bucks." I expected very little from this team, and they’ve given more than I could have asked for. No matter what happens over the last week of the season and into the playoffs, the 2025 Blue Jays have to be considered a success. That’s the objective side of my thinking. The flip side is one of squandered chances and a history of playoff disappointment. This team has found a way to defy expectations all year, and I just hope it continues. When the dust settles on the playoffs and the off-season begins, we’ll take time to reflect on the remarkable things we’ve seen in individual moments and cumulative performances. Until then, I will remain stuck – somewhere between panic and perspective. View full article

With Anthony Santander ready to return from the 60-day injured list, the Blue Jays had to make a move. The first move was Ty France going to the IL with an oblique strain that may or may not be code for "Toronto needs to shuffle some bodies," and despite France's short time here, he's a team player. The more surprising move involved Alek Manoah being DFA'd, clearing a spot on the 40-man roster. Manoah was drafted by Toronto in the first round of the 2019 draft and quickly made his presence known - finishing third in Cy Young voting in 2022. His struggles in 2023 were followed by Tommy John surgery and a lengthy rehab assignment that he was nearing the end of. Updates to follow... View full rumor