Mike LeSage

I want to put you in a room with John Schneider and listen to you discuss the Monty Hall Problem.

A good sweep, a bad sweep and a split. The classic recipe for a .500 team. The Blue Jays won some, the Blue Jays lost some. We’ve got highlights and lowlights. Let’s dig into the week that was. Weekly Snapshot: Thurs, 3/27 through Sun, 4/6 *** Record Last Week: 5-5 (Overall: 5-5) Run Differential Last Week: -6 (Overall: -6) Standings: Third Place in AL East (1.5 GB), 3rd Place in AL Wildcard (0.0 GB) Last Week's Results: Game 1: BAL 12 - TOR 2 Berríos: 5.0 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 5 K Giménez: 1-for-3, HR, 2 RBI Game 2 | BAL 2 - TOR 8 Gausman: 6.0 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K Bichette, Guerrero Jr., Santander, Springer, and Wagner all with two hits each Game 3: BAL 9 - TOR 5 Scherzer: 3.0 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 1 K Bichette 4-for-4 Game 4: BAL 1 - TOR 3 Bassitt: 6.0 IP, 8 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 K Heineman 1-for-3, HR Game 5: WAS 2 - TOR 5 Francis: 6.0 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 4 K Giménez: Double, HR, three runs scored Game 6: WAS 3 - TOR 5 Berríos: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 8 K Bichette, Kirk, Springer, Wagner and Roden with two hits each Game 7: WAS 2 - TOR 4 Lucas: 5.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K Straw 3-for-4; Springer HR Game 8: TOR 0 - NYM 5 Gausman: 5.1 IP, 2 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 0K Springer: 2-for-4 with a triple Game 9: TOR 2 - NYM 3 Bassitt: 6.2 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 K Roden 2-for-3 with two runs scored Game 10: TOR 1 - NYM 2 Francis: 5.1 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 6 K Kirk: 2-for-4 Highlights Before the season started, we tagged Bo Bichette as a Make or Break candidate, and so far he’s been making it. Hitting leadoff, he leads the team in hits. He’s been hitting to all fields, and at his best he’s always been a free-swinging bat, so the low walk count isn’t a cause for concern. When the Jays acquired Andrés Giménez, we often said “if he can just be a league-average hitter, the glove will provide enough value.” He’s already made some great defensive plays, but the power surge in the first five games was a delightful addition. He hit the Jays' first home run of the season and currently leads the team with three. For the pessimists in the crowd, I will allow that he’s 3-for-19 in the last five games, but the offensive powerhouse itch has been scratched, and fairly or not, we’ll be looking for more pop all season. George Springer has certainly been a highlight reel player early on. He’s one of only three Jays with a homer (plus a pair of doubles that hit high up on the wall at Rogers Centrel; this one would’ve been a homer in 13 other ballparks). His 1.076 OPS leads the team, and he tried to run through an outfield wall to make a play. He was listed as day-to-day after that wall collision on Saturday, but was well enough on Sunday to pinch run and steal a base, so hopefully that’s all the maintenance these back spasms needed. Jesse Burrill made the case for Alan Roden to be on the active roster to start the season. Roden started Opening Day and has continued to make the case for himself. He belongs here. He’s come up with some timely hits, has the fewest strikeouts on the team (with more ABs than five other players) and has shown some great range playing the field. Chris Bassitt (also known as the Hound on the Mound) probably had fewer words written about him than any other Jays starter heading into this season. Two times through the rotation and he’s the early season ace. Bassitt has 12 2/3 innings pitched, one earned run, and 16 strikeouts. He got the win in the last game of the Baltimore series and was on track for a win against the Mets following an even better start before that game slipped away. To say Easton Lucas wasn’t expected to start in the first 10 games would be an incredible understatement. He was called upon though, and absolutely aced his first test. Five innings of one-hit shutout ball is enough to give him the ball the next time through the order. If he can have half as good of a game at Fenway as he did in his Rogers Centre debut, start he’ll be back in this highlight section soon. Lowlights It wasn’t all good news though. The beginning of the Max Scherzer era in Toronto lasted 45 pitches before he landed on the IL. We knew the risks when Scherzer was signed, he’s a 40-year-old pitcher after all. To only get three innings despite the "imminent danger” felt disappointing, not to mention the strain it put on the bullpen Just kidding! We’re absolutely going to mention the bullpen. After being called on for seven innings of work through the first two games, the ‘pen had to put up another six innings in game three, and the ripple effects from that, plus the pre-season injuries led to some…inconsistent results. Maybe it isn’t fair to lump the whole ‘pen in here together. Jeff Hoffman has three saves and Yimi García has yet to give up a run. On the heels of wasting Bassitt’s last start though, we’ve got to note that bullpen (and maybe its management) hasn’t been stellar. How early is too early to worry about the lack of home run power from the lineup? Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Anthony Santander were expected to be the major source of power in this Jays lineup, and so far they’ve combined for zero round-trippers. Granted, they’re not alone. Only Giménez, Springer and Tyler Heineman(!) have homers so far. The Jays rank third-worst in barrel rate. They’re just inside the top 10 for hard-hit rate and exit velocity, so maybe it’s too early to worry. Dingers make good highlights and put runs on the board, though, and after a series where 33% of the Jays runs came via HBP, we could use some long balls. News, Notes and Not Playing Can you believe we waited until this far into a review of the week before mentioning the biggest news this franchise has seen since the unveiling of a retractable roof? Vladimir Guerrero Jr. agreed to a $500-million, 728-week extension to stay in Toronto! A huge deal for the player, a massive deal for the franchise, and more angles to cover than I think we’ve even realized yet. Day-to-day: George Springer 10-day IL: Daulton Varsho 15-day IL: Erik Swanson, Ryan Burr, Max Scherzer 60-day IL: Alek Manoah, Angel Bastardo Trending Storyline How long can Davis Schneider stick with the big club? He’s only had 10 at-bats so far this season, but he has zero hits and six strikeouts to show for it. He's a pinch-hitter or a spot starter who's in there to face lefties, but he won't have the role for very long if he's not hitting. Last season’s 0.0 bWAR and this early season’s -26 OPS+ can’t leave him with too long of a leash. Looking Ahead The road trip continues with two AL East stops: four games in Boston followed by a three-game set in Baltimore. With the division expected to be extremely tight all season, this is a pivotal week even though we’re only 10 games into the season. View full article

After a saga that has lasted months, the Blue Jays get their man and Guerrero gets very, very paid. It wasn't always pretty. The debate about whether the Blue Jays would extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — about whether they should extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr., about what would constitute a fair deal for both sides, about whether the counteroffers and strategic leaks would poison the negotiations — has served as the backdrop for every piece of news about the team for months now. This extension was the talk of the offseason, spring training, and Opening Day. There were rumours, sources, and speculation, but now we have confirmation. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be a Blue Jay for life. On Sunday night, just after midnight, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet announced that Guerrero and the Blue Jays were in agreement on a 14-year deal for $500 million, none of it deferred. After all that buildup and a series of cryptic rumors that the two sides were getting closer, perhaps it was fate that the eye-opening news would go down right when no one was expecting it, just after Toronto went to sleep. Sunday evening on ESPN Countdown, Jeff Passan said that Guerrero and the Blue Jays were hoping to have the extension finalized “at some point this week.” Just hours later, Davidi delivered the news of the agreement, which is not yet official, pending a physical. As befits a moment this monumental, Matthew Trueblood has already jumped in with analysis about the deal. Fourteen years and $500 million dollars is a lot no matter how you break it down, but without any deferred money to drag down the present value, it trails only Juan Soto's 15-year, $765-million deal with the Mets as the largest contract in the history of baseball. It breaks down to an average annual value of $35.7 million, a huge amount for any player, but especially for a first baseman. This confirmation won't bring silence, however. If anything, it raises more questions than it answers, but we’ll save those for the coming days. The Blue Jays got their guy, and they've now made sure that they'll be holding onto him from age 16 to age 40. It’s a good time to go out and get that Guerrero jersey you’ve been hesitant to buy! Guerrero has been the face of the franchise for years now, and this extension gives him the potential to cement his name above Luis Leal's as the all-time career Jay. The alternative is that he becomes the Vernon Wells to a new generation of Blue Jays fans. Guerrero's deal will pay him like his seasons of putting up at least 6.0 bWAR (2021 and 2024) will be the norm, not the exception, from here on out. Early in March, Mark Shapiro told Keegan Matheson about his optimism that an extension would happen and about the desire for Guerrero to be a “legacy player” in Toronto. This deal will bring momentary relief to the Jays front office, but one player and $500 million does not make a championship team. Everyone around baseball will take note of this contract, none moreso Daulton Varsho and Bo Bichette, who are overdue for their moments in the rough glare of the extension conversation spotlight. Again, we’ll be covering all the permutations in the coming days. For now, before they worry about the financial ramifications, the rest of the roster, and the 14 years of wondering whether Guerrero can possibly live up to the terms of such a mammoth deal, Blue Jays fans can just breathe a sigh of relief that the team's biggest star isn't going anywhere. Plakata, indeed. View full article

Max Scherzer visited a hand specialist and will be spending (at least) 15 days on the IL. What does that mean for the rest of the rotation and the bullpen? All of our preseason talk and excitement surrounding the signing of future Hall of Famer (we’re contractually obligated to refer to his impending enshrinement in Cooperstown at least once per article) Max Scherzer came with the caveat “if healthy.” Well, if healthy lasted 45 pitches into his debut start. If we’re being honest, if healthy didn’t even make it to the start of the season. During spring training, Scherzer had an MRI to look into a thumb issue that caused him to miss his last scheduled start. At the time, it was noted that while there wasn’t nerve involvement, the thumb was connected to the injuries that plagued Scherzer’s last two years in Texas. Ahead of his debut start, manager John Schneider told reporters Scherzer would end up around 80 pitches, saying and “He’s been rip-roaring, ready to go. Mad Max, engaged.” Two pitches into that debut, Colton Cowser was rounding the bases after putting a four-seam fastball over the wall in straight-away centre. Ten pitches after that, it was Jordan Westburg driving a slider 434 into the seats. The second and third innings were less eventful, with the Orioles going three-up, three-down. But upon his return to the dugout after that third inning, it was clear that was all the Mad Max we were going to see. After the game it was revealed that Scherzer had felt lat tightness during warmups but tried to pitch through it. Given that it ended with a trip to the IL (officially with right thumb inflammation). Maybe pitching through it wasn’t the right approach. Maybe the IL trip was going to happen no matter what action Scherzer and the Jays took on Saturday. Now all we can do is look forward. The first question is: Who fills Scherzer’s spot in the rotation? Before the season, we kind of assumed that when anyone in the starting rotation missed time, Yariel Rodríguez would be the first to jump into the spot. After his relief appearances so far (particularly in earning the hold on Sunday) it seemed there might be some hesitancy to bounce him around. In comments to reporters, John Schnieider has tipped either Rodríguez or Easton Lucas to make the start this coming Friday, depending on “where we land after the next couple games.” Bowden Francis, José Berríos, and Kevin Gausman are the expected starters for the three-game set against Washington before an off-day Thursday, then a 10-game road trip through New York (Mets), Boston, and Baltimore. I haven’t seen this suggested yet, but after the Jays see where they land, the off-day on April 3 could be treated as Scherzer’s day. The team could then go with Chris Bassitt and Francis for the first two games on the road. The last game of that road trip coincides with Scherzer’s (current) last day on the IL. As with many dynamic situations, new information continues to roll in. We've gone from Schneider touting Rodríguez or Lucas for Friday's start to now saying, according to Keegan Matheson, that Lucas pitching on Wednesday (at home against Washington) is "Plan A." He left open the possibility for more change depending on how Tuesday evening's game shakes out. So that makes it Berríos on Tuesday and Lucas on Wednesday. Kevin Gausman will take the Mets home opener at Citi Field to shield the less experienced Lucas from what could be an intimidating environment. So what does the bullpen look like now? Through the opening series with Baltimore, the 'pen was counted on to throw 16 innings and just over 300 pitches. Richard Lovelady’s 1 2/3 innings and 46 pitches have already been DFA’d. Lucas joins the team with another lefty, Mason Fluharty. Simon Li has a great introduction to the two new arms here. They join Jacob Barnes, Yimi García, Chad Green, Jeff Hoffman, Brendon Little, and Nick Sandlin, all of whom have been a mix of solid, serviceable, and just enough this side of Lovelady to keep their spot through four games. As we’ve already seen, a lot can change in the course of just one series. As more information comes in and more games are played, there could be a few more permutations in the rotation and the 'pen. One silver lining amongst all the early concern, though, is that the organization seems to be willing to make early moves. View full article

The Blue Jays might not be projected for a winning season, but the new food offerings at the Rogers Centre have projections of their own. The Toronto Blue Jays have announced a number of new menu items that will be available at the Rogers Centre this season. Using a proprietary set of metrics, we’ve crunched some numbers to determine what kind of value fans can expect from the rookie foods at the park this season. First let's familiarize ourselves with the metrics and methodology we’ll be using in this evaluation. Meals Above Replacement (MAR): In the early years of baseball, a ballpark meal was nothing more than some peanuts and cracker-jack. Real replacement-level stuff. With each advancement in food technology, the envelope has been pushed. Mary Brown’s Original Big Mary with Taters has been averaging 4.2 MAR since its rookie season in 2022. The Hot Maple & Bacon Footlong Hotdog won last season’s MVF (Most Valuable Food) with a 7.8 MAR. On-Mind Percentage (OMP): This is how many of your thoughts are occupied pre-game by a given food item. A basic hot dog clocks in around 3% on a regular game day. Loonie Dog Tuesdays can see this number get as high as 25%. Novelty Factor (NF+): This measures how likely you are to repurchase an item. As you can tell by the plus, this is weighted to the league-average. Anything above 100 is better than average. Last season, the rookie Stuffed Jamaican Patties and Snow Fries ended up on opposite ends of the spectrum. The patties seeing a lot of repeat purchases and a 122 NF+, while the fries underperformed and logged a 87. Clockwise from top left: Crunchy Pickle Dog, Blueberry Pancakes, Plakata Chicken Skewers, Cotton Candy Fries. Courtesy of the Blue Jays. First up, we’ve got the two new dogs, the Mojo Hot Dog and the Crunchy Pickle Hot Dog. Following in the maple and bacon footsteps of last year’s MVF isn’t going to be easy. The standard versions are projected for 3.5 MAR, but the footlong jumps to a 6.0 MAR. These are sturdy-looking dogs. The novelty factor is where the projections differ however. The Mojo Pork is expected to keep people coming back, and that’s reflected in its 118 NF+. Pre-season concerns about how the pretzels are going to interact with the shoestring pickles have the Crunchy Pickle Dog slightly below league average at 98 NF+. This is a race we’ll want to follow all season. Next up is the OMP star of the preseason: The Cotton Candy Fries. We haven’t seen an on-mind percentage this high since the McDonald’s hot dogs that marked the SkyDome’s debut, making it one of the only locations in the world that sold McHotDogs at the time. A high OMP doesn’t always correlate to a high NF+, and the projections have these cotton candy-topped fries going in opposite directions. The 40% OMP is justified, and it jumps to 50% amongst children aged 10 and under, but the 85 NF+ suggests a one-and-done experience. The Plakata Skewers are projected to be a solid contributor to the rotation this season. These chicken skewers covered in sazon, ancho chipotle aioli, and pico de gallo take their name from the home run cry Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has made famous in Toronto. Could these skewers get renamed next season if Guerrero is skewering line drives elsewhere? With a projected 4.0 MAR, 110 NF+, and a solid 15% OMP this offering could be around for many seasons to come without any need for extension negotiations. The Blueberry Mini Pancakes (also available in Oreo flavour) haven’t been getting a tonne of press this preseason, but could be a dark horse breakout candidate. If they can carve out a spot as the go-to offering during the seventh-inning stretch, they could see themselves outperforming their projected 105 NF+. My pick for RFotY (Rookie Food of the Year) is the Korean Fried Chicken Wings. Coming in two flavours, sweet and spicy and with soy garlic, the flavour profile projects to be top-tier and is reflected in the 3.8 MAR and 22% OMP. The Novelty Factor is what we’ll want to keep an eye on. If the wings can avoid the messy-fingers pitfall of some predecessors (pulled pork sliders, I’m looking at you), they could put up historic numbers. Korean Fried Chicken Wings The utility-option season is looking to lock down a position in The Stop (located on the 100 level behind the Batter’s Eye). The Stop is offering both bao and rice bowls with four new flavours: Crispy Pork Belly, Lemongrass Chicken, Soy Marinated Beef, and Smoked Tempeh. If things go right, the mix-and-match potential of the four flavours and two bases could see this utility option move from playing the matchups into an everyday player. View full article

Spring training home runs are nice, but the first one of the regular season is always something special. With his fourth-inning home run on Opening Day, the newly acquired Andrés Giménez became the 38th different Blue Jay to hit the first homer of the season. Let's enjoy it one more time, shall we? Looking all the way back to the beginning, it didn’t take the Jays long to get their first home run in their first season. On a snowy day in Toronto in 1977, Doug Ault was the third Blue Jay to the plate… Just under two-thirds of the time, the Jays have hit their first homer in their first game of the season. In 2000, Shannon Stewart, hitting leadoff, took Jeff Suppan deep in the first at-bat of the season. The following year Stewart would be the first Jay to homer again, this time waiting all the way until his second at-bat (the 10th for the Jays). Only two other Jays have been the first to homer in back-to-back seasons. John Mayberry did it in 1980 and 1981 (the ‘81 homer didn’t come until the third game and 83rd AB of the season). Teoscar Hernández did it in 2021 and 2022 (both opening day HRs and both in the 22nd Jays AB of the game). Five other players have hit the Jays’ first homer of the season more than once. Ernie Whitt had opening day homers in 1982 and 1984, George Bell did it in 1985, 1988, and 1990, Ed Sprague broke the ice in 1993 and 1995 (neither on Opening Day), Carlos Delgado took 1997, 1999, and 2003, and Vernon Wells did it in 2008 and 2010. I should also note that in addition to the back-to-back entries in ‘80 and ‘81, Mayberry had the Jays first HR in 1978, making him a member of the three-timers club with Bell and Delgado. In 31 out of the team’s 49 seasons, the Jays have seen their first home run in their first game of the year. Twelve of those times it was on the first time through the order, but only once has it been the team’s first as well. The longest the Jays have had to wait for that home run was in 2023 when Bo Bichette went deep in the 145th AB of the Jays’ season during Toronto’s fourth game. After a three-game set to start the year in St. Louis (the only time the Jays haven’t homered in their first series), it took until the ninth inning in Kansas City for Bo to go yard and mark the first of that season. George Bell’s homer in 1985 marks the only time the first homer came in extra innings, as Bell led off the 10th inning in the team’s third game of the season. Erik Kratz’s opening day homer in 2014 is the only time the first home run came from a pinch hitter. It represented 33% of all the home runs Kratz would hit for the Jays. Whether they were a Trooper song, like Erik Kratz or one of the Jays career home run leaders (all seven of the franchise’s all-time home run hitters have done it), when the season starts we celebrate them all. Year Name Game At-Bat Year Name Game At-Bat Year Name Game At-Bat 1977 Doug Ault 1 3 1994 Roberto Alomar 1 30 2010 Vernon Wells 1 4 1978 John Mayberry 2 46 1995 Ed Sprague 2 52 2011 J.P. Arencibia 1 18 1979 Rick Cerone 2 61 1996 Domingo Cedeño 1 2 2012 José Bautista 1 12 1980 John Mayberry 1 3 1997 Carlos Delgado 1 6 2013 Maicer Izturis 2 37 1981 John Mayberry 3 83 1998 José Cruz 1 8 2014 Erik Kratz 1 27 1982 Ernie Whitt 1 16 1999 Carlos Delgado 1 5 2015 Edwin Encarnación 1 13 1983 Rance Mulliniks 1 8 2000 Shannon Stewart 1 1 2016 Troy Tulowitzki 1 32 1984 Ernie Whitt 1 8 2001 Shannon Stewart 1 10 2017 Kendrys Morales 3 88 1985 George Bell 3 107 2002 Raúl Mondesi 2 77 2018 Kevin Pillar 1 26 1986 Cecil Fielder 3 86 2003 Carlos Delgado 3 73 2019 Justin Smoak 3 76 1987 Lloyd Moseby 1 3 2004 Reed Johnson 2 54 2020 Cavan Biggio 1 20 1988 George Bell 1 4 2005 Orlando Hudson 1 11 2021 Teoscar Hernández 1 22 1989 Jesse Barfield 2 50 2006 Bengie Molina 1 16 2022 Teoscar Hernández 1 22 1990 George Bell 3 70 2007 Aaron Hill 2 61 2023 Bo Bichette 4 145 1991 Joe Carter 1 31 2008 Vernon Wells 2 45 2024 George Springer 1 10 1992 Pat Borders 1 17 2009 Travis Snider 1 18 2025 Andrés Giménez 1 13 1993 Ed Sprague 3 70 View full article

This isn't the first time the Blue Jays have tried to lock down their best, most-loved, homegrown player. The first time might be instructional. A number of people, myself very much included, have been making the case that the Toronto Blue Jays should have signed Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at any cost. We’ve argued that he can hit the ball like very few players of his generation and we’ve handwaved concerns about his defense and baserunning. The foundation for a lot of these arguments is different for Guerrero than it is for a similar player the Jays might have pursued in free agency; think Pete Alonso or Alex Bregman as recent examples. Guerrero is a homegrown player. He was born in Montreal while his father played with the Expos and was signed by the Blue Jays as an international free agent when he was 16. He moved up through the ranks playing in Dunedin, New Hampshire, and Buffalo before making his Toronto debut on Opening Day in 2019. Over the past four seasons, he’s been to four straight All-Star Games, won a Gold Glove and two Silver Sluggers, led the AL in home runs, led the Blue Jays in bWAR in 2024, and thrown in Home Run Derby win just for fun. This coming season will be his 10th in the organization. He has expressed a desire to remain in Toronto, and if a 14-year deal doesn’t carry him to retirement, I don’t know what will. The Blue Jays don’t have a big name career player (apologies to Luis Leal and Ricky Romero) and Guerrero represents a chance to cement that portion of the franchise’s history. (I’m also open to Bo Bichette extending and becoming that guy.) So yes, as many have noted, this signing would mean more to Toronto than any other franchise. I’ve been thinking about Vernon Wells a lot lately, and not just because he’s one of my most-used players in Immaculate Grid. The Blue Jays selected Wells fifth in the 1997 draft. He worked his way through the minors and had some call-ups to the big club starting in 1999. He laid claim to center in 2002 and averaged more than 143 games per season there for the next nine years. Wells wasn’t as prolific as Guerrero, but in his time here he was a three-time All-Star, three-time Gold Glover, and Silver Slugger winner who led the team in bWAR in 2006. He was a fan favourite (for a time) and one of the faces of the franchise. And he had a chance to be a career Jay. Ahead of the 2003 season, Wells signed a five-year, $14.7-million contract. He immediately repaid that with his first All-Star appearance. He led the league in hits, doubles, and total bases, won the Silver Slugger, and finished eighth in MVP voting. In the next three seasons, Wells would win consecutive Gold Gloves, earn another All-Star selection, and finish with his best season, a 6.2-bWAR 2006 campaign. That off-season, Toronto put forward an offer to buy out the final year of Wells’ five-year contract with a seven-year, $126-million extension (an AAV jump from $2.94 million to $18 million). Naturally, Wells was agreeable to the deal and signed what was at the time the largest contract in Blue Jays history. For comparison to the 2025 Jays, and adjusted for inflation, that AAV (approximately $27 million in today’s dollars) would put him behind only Guerrero and would be close to George Springer’s six-year $150-million deal. For a decade following the Wells signing, the Jays instituted a five-year cap on both free agent signings and extensions. In 2007, Wells battled through shoulder issues that led to off-season surgery. In 2008, he suffered a broken wrist and Toronto never saw him return to the levels that had been forecast on the day that contract was issued. That’s not to say that Wells was a bad player. In fact he’s eighth all-time in career bWAR as a Jay. But the weight and expectations that came along with that contract absolutely changed how he was perceived in this city. Time heals all wounds, and thanks to some more recent deals you won’t find Wells’ name on “Worst Contracts in Baseball” lists anymore, but for a time he topped the charts. As you can imagine, the worst contract in the league was also considered untradable (in part because of a full no-trade clause). Yet somehow, the desperation of the Los Angeles Angels broke through and Wells was sent to the West Coast in exchange for Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera before the 2011 season. Napoli and Rivera didn’t have careers worth noting in Toronto, but less than a month after Wells was traded, Jose Bautista signed a five-year, $65-million extension that likely wouldn’t have been possible with Wells still on the payroll. The other part of the contract that I’ve neglected to mention is that it was heavily backloaded. Almost 70% of the $126 million was due in the final three years, making the fact that Alex Anthopoulos was able to move it an accomplishment of mythical proportions. To bring it back to Guerrero, I’ve pulled this quote from J.P. Ricciardi ahead of the 2008 season “He’s our best player. And, you know, he’s the guy that’s been here the longest in a lot of ways from an everyday standpoint. You’ve watched Vernon kind of grow up in front of you.” That’s as applicable to Guerrero today as it was to Wells then. I want Guerrero here forever. I want him to have his name on the Level of Excellence, but my memory isn’t so short that I don’t see the possibility of history repeating itself. View full article

"Forty-year-olds around the world can relate." That hit me right in the lower back.

As new details about negotiations between the Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. keep emerging, we take another look at both sides of the table. On Thursday, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that sources told him Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was asking for $500 million in present value during extension negotiations. The Jays, said those sources, were offering close to $500 million, but with deferrals, making the present value “somewhere between” $400 to 450 million. Guerrero softened his stance on deferrals late in the negotiations, but as we know, a deal was never struck. Guerrero was looking for a 15-year deal, buying out his last year of arbitration and adding 14 years to his stay in Toronto. To this point, all reports that have come out say the stumbling block was the dollar value, so for now we will have to assume the Jays were okay with a 14-year term, just at a lower valuation. Toronto’s well-documented pursuit of Soto this past offseason at a reported AAV of $51 million and Shohei Ohtani the year before ($46.1 AAV after deferrals) certainly would have pushed the market upwards for both Guerrero and upcoming big-name free agents. I’m not going to argue that Guerrero is at the level or value of either of those two, but if we believe he was asking for $500 million over 14 years, that’s a $35.71 million AAV. Let’s have a look at the kind of company that would put him in. Rank Player Total Present Years Age AAV (Present) 1 Juan Soto 765 765 15 26 51 2 Shohei Ohtani 700 460.8 10 29 46.08 3 Zack Wheeler 126 126 3 35 42 4 Aaron Judge 360 360 9 31 40 5 Jacob deGrom 185 185 5 35 37 6 Gerrit Cole 324 324 9 29 36 7 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 500 500 14 25 35.7 8 Mike Trout 426.5 426.5 12 27 35.5 9 Anthony Rendon 245 245 7 30 35 10 Corbin Burnes 210 210 6 30 35 11 Francisco Lindor 341 338 10 28 33.8 12 Carlos Correa 200 200 6 28 33.3 13 Nolan Arenado 260 260 8 28 32.5 14 Corey Seager 325 325 10 28 32.5 15 Jays High-End Offer 450 450 14 25 32.1 16 Manny Machado 350 350 11 30 31.8 17 Alex Bregman 120 95.1 3 31 31.7 18 Blake Snell 182 150.3 5 32 30.06 19 Rafael Devers 313.4 291.5 10 26 29.15 20 Jays Low-End Offer 400 400 14 25 28.6 21 Trea Turner 300 300 11 30 27.3 22 Mookie Betts 365 306.7 12 28 25.6 It’s elite company no matter which way you cut it. It’s also worth noting that Guerrero is making $28.5 million this year, which lines up with the potential low-end offer displayed. You can cherry-pick any name on the list and argue whether Guerrero deserves to be above or below them. I’m firmly on the side of signing Guerrero at (almost) any cost, so I like to pick on Anthony Rendon, arguing that the homegrown four-time All-Star face of the franchise with a shelf full of awards is worth AT LEAST as much as Rendon got from the Angels. I’m not unreasonable though; I can look at the other names on the list, and at my colleague Davy Andrews’ arguments and recognize that Guerrero is asking to be valued (for a long time!) at a rate above what he has shown he deserves. (And in the interest of fairness, it’s worth noting that going into their last seasons of arbitration, Rendon had put up 23.2 fWAR while Guerrero has put up just 17.0) What I keep coming back to, though, is how close they really were/are. If we’re to trust Rosenthal’s sources, the Jays and Guerrero were between $3.5 million and $7.1 million apart per season. Let’s split the difference and call it $5.3 million. Depending on your preferred methodology, teams are spending between $6 million and $9 million per win in free agency, so they’re less than one win apart in perceived value. In the grand scheme of things, how much is $5.3 million a year? To cherry-pick another name - it’s the same amount Gregory Soto is being paid to pitch out of the Baltimore bullpen this season. Once again we’re talking about Soto money. Again, I’ll listen to all the reasons that the Jays should walk away from this negotiation. It’s a tonne of money — money that could be spread around and used to help fill multiple lineup holes for years to come. The contract lengths we’re talking about have almost no hope of ending well – even in the best case scenario, teams expect to be overpaying on the front end while the player is young, then end overpaying as they age – but there is a question of legacy to be considered. If the two sides had truly gotten over all those hurdles and they were down to arguing over Gregory Soto money instead of Juan Soto money, I just don’t understand how a compromise couldn’t be met. View full article

Absolutely love these articles!

After a few weeks of spring training action, several Opening Day roster spots are far from certain. Almost a month ago we looked at how the opening day lineup might shake out. Now that we’ve got some spring training games in the rearview, let's have a look at what’s changed and how much clearer the picture has become. Lineup and Batting Order 1. Bo Bichette - SS (R) 2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 1B (R) 3. Anthony Santander - RF (S) 4. George Springer - LF (R) Same top four as the previous projection, but with a couple of tweaks. Springer moves from first to fourth and everyone else shifts up one. Manager John Schneider has implied that Guerrero and Santander are fairly locked into the second and third spots, with Bichette bouncing between leadoff and cleanup, “depending on who we’re facing.” He didn’t explicitly state that Springer would switch places with Bichette based on matchups, but in the games that all four of these guys have started, this has been the order. I’ve also flipped Springer and Santander’s outfield corner assignments because Springer has been seeing more time in left so far. That may be a sign of how the season will go, or it may just be getting him comfortable with the position now so that he can rotate in-season. 5. Andrés Giménez - 2B (L) 6. Alejandro Kirk - C (R) Kirk stays in the six-spot, but Giménez leapfrogs him. This is the way we’ve seen this pair in the lineup most of the spring. Although Kirk is the superior hitter, Giménez’s speed and ability to swipe a bag should help keep the double plays at a minimum. The Jays have also placed Giménez at leadoff for a handful of spring games, so there’s some precedent for him to move all the way to the top, moving Bichette and Springer down to four and five. 7. Addison Barger - DH (L) 8. Ernie Clement - 3B (R) 9. Daulton Varsho - CF (L) Barger and Varsho are the two big additions here from the last projection. Barger moves up from the bench based on the hot spring he’s demonstrated so far (1.149 OPS in 21 ABs) and Varsho comes in from the trainers room in the hopes that his recovery from shoulder surgery is indeed ahead of schedule and there are no setbacks. Varsho is still increasing his throwing distance and has only been DH’ing to this point in the spring, so maybe an Opening Day start in center is optimistic, but if nothing else, mid-March is a time for optimism. The Bench Tyler Heineman - C (S) Will Wagner - 1B/3B/DH (L) Steward Berroa - OF (S) Davis Schneider - 2B/LF (R) Ultimately, not much change here, though plenty of other names have a strong case. Varsho’s status is the big question mark. If he’s not ready, I think Joey Loperfido has the inside track to cover CF. My colleague Jesse Burrill also laid out a great case for Alan Roden. Myles Straw has also had a terrific spring so far. The Jays outfield is a crowded place right now, but I think Berroa presents the best bench option, mainly based on the way he was used last season, but also on the 40-man moves that would be required for some of the other names. Orelvis Martínez and Leo Jiménez have their supporters too. Like Roden’s, their omissions have to do with playing time. I suspect if one of the starters has a long absence, we’ll see these guys up before we see Schneider take over a starting role, but Babe gets the bench spot as a sub. Starting Rotation 1. José Berríos (RHP) 2. Kevin Gausman (RHP) 3. Max Scherzer (RHP) 4. Chris Bassitt (RHP) 5. Bowden Francis (RHP) No change here, other than officially assigning Yariel Rodríguez to the ‘pen. The starters have looked good-to-great so far and I don’t want to say much else that might jinx that. Berríos is still my guess for Opening Day starter, but I’m betting that Gausman is back (hat tip to Owen Hill) and will be the recognized, capital-A Ace by the end of the season. Bullpen Jeff Hoffman (RHP) Chad Green (RHP) Yimi García (RHP) Nick Sandlin (RHP) Brendon Little (LHP) Ryan Yarbrough (LHP) Zach Pop (RHP) Yariel Rodríguez (RHP) In a mid-game interview during the third inning of the Jays-Twins game on Tuesday, John Schneider said he’s got “three or four guys battling for the last bullpen spot.” Hopefully, Erik Swanson’s elbow issue will turn out to be a minor thing, but he’s expected to start the season on the IL at a minimum, so the potential for someone else to grab some impact innings (or a late spring acquisition) is in play. Little and Yarbrough provide the lefty presence, and Pop has been with the organization long enough to have the inside track, but I could be easily swayed to leave any of them off in favour of your preferred bullpen depth piece, like Tommy Nance. The recently signed, and returning, Dillon Tate certainly has a shot to get in. His almost 4 innings with the Jays last season weren't much of an audition, but (pending a physical) he's got a major-league deal with the club. View full article

Homegrown All-Star Bo Bichette had a season we’d all like to forget and now finds himself in a real make-or-break situation entering 2025. Bo Bichette was never supposed to find himself in a feature like this one. He was never make-or-break, he just kept on making it. Bichette came into the 2024 season with three straight 20-homer seasons and a career batting average of .299. But after cratering in an injury-plagued 2024 campaign, it's hard to overstate how big regaining his previous form would be to the Blue Jays. What Went Wrong in 2024? The short answer is injuries. Before we dive into 2024, let's look at the end of 2023. August 2023 saw Bo Bichette hit the injured list twice. First was a right knee injury. When he came back from that injury (sooner than necessary?) he did not perform well at the plate and saw another IL stint with a right quad strain. Coming back from the quad strain, he put up some less than stellar performances, but over the final two weeks of the season, Bichette was leading the charge as the best bat on the team. On to 2024, there were no signs in spring training that Bichette was in for anything other than another productive year. The first week of the season, he missed a couple of games with neck spasms. He put up a 96 wRC+ over the 28 games he did play in March/April. May saw some positive results and a 107 wRC+ (well below the 126 career mark Bichette brought into the season, but trending in the right direction) before absolutely cratering in June to the tune of a 53 wRC+. That downturn coincided with a 10-day IL stint due to a strained right calf. In July, Bichette only saw action in nine games and ran a minuscule wRC+ of 2, missing time with a forearm contusion from a hit-by-pitch and twice with recurring calf issues. The first July calf issue didn’t force Bichette to the IL. Instead he went day-to-day and used the pending All-Star break to buy some time off. Evidently that didn’t provide the fix and in his first game after the break, Bichette had to be pulled after aggravating the calf coming out of the batter’s box. After missing 53 games ,Bichette returned to the Jays in September and went 2-for-5 in his return. Taking groundballs before the next game, Bichette suffered a finger injury that required surgery and just like that, his season was done. So the short answer was injuries, but we also would have taken: everything. What Can Go Right in 2025? With the most rose-coloured glasses on and a healthy dose of “if healthy,” let’s remember that we’re talking about a two-time All-Star who received MVP votes in each of his first three ful seasons. He has led the American League in hits twice, and has put up the single best bWAR season this franchise has ever seen at shortstop (5.8 in 2021). Every projection has Bichette bouncing back this year, and while there is some built-in hedging with consideration for last season, the projection systems OOPSY and The Bat see Bichette as the second-most productive player on the team. Steamer and ATC have him third and ZiPS, the lowest, has him fifth. Baseball Reference profiles Corey Seager as being Bichette’s most comparable batter through age 26, and if Bichette can replicate even half of Seager’s World Series MVP awards (and do it in Toronto) he'll go down as a Toronto legend. Sure, this clip is just batting practice in spring training, and Bichette isn’t called on to be the power guy, but watch this LOUD homer a few times and tell me you don’t feel something. How Will This Impact the Blue Jays? For a single player, a swing of four or five wins from one year to the next would be huge in any situation, but Bichette might just be well-positioned for it. As his season progresses, regardless of his production level, there will be continual talk about his contract status. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s pending free agency has taken the majority of the spotlight, but Bichette’s can’t be ignored (even if that’s the approach the front office has taken). He’ll have to block out or roll with a lot of rumours and speculation (something he struggled with last year) as either a potential trade chip or a free agent signing. The Contract Year Phenomenon will hopefully boost production and value. In the event Bichette is the subject of a mid-season trade (or lengthy absence for other reasons), a combination of Leo Jiménez and Ernie Clement are the likely candidates to fill in. Fangraphs has Arjun Nimmala as their 82nd ranked prospect (second in the franchise) but project his ETA as 2028. Could the Jays find ground on a four-year extension for Bichette? There might not be a player on this Jays team whose at-bats will be more heavily scrutinized than Bichette's this year. Let’s hope he’s up for the challenge. View full article

First AB homer today! He's so back!

Considering the case for replacing Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins, and the horrifying realization that maybe they’re safe. The Athletic recently published the results of an insiders poll – 32 executives, former executives, coaches and scouts – ranking the pressure index of each team’s front office. It should come as no surprise to Blue Jays fans that the cliche-spewing, disingenuous-seeming tandem of president and CEO Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins didn’t just lead the voting, but very nearly lapped the field. They earned 22 votes, while no other team had more than 12. Let’s look at the front office situation from a few viewpoints: a fan’s perspective (specifically mine), the front office itself, team ownership. Fan Perspective Excuse me while I scream into the void for a moment. Shapiro and Atkins were hired following the 2015 season. That year, the Jays won the division with 93 wins behind AL MVP Josh Donaldson, Cy Young runner-up David Price and Level of Excellence member Jose Bautista. They haven’t won a division in the nine seasons since. They’ve been to the playoffs 4 times, but haven’t won a game since 2016. They’ve finished on average more than 16 games behind the division leader. They completely mishandled the Vladimir Guerrero Jr. extension, and looking around, if winning is his goal, how could we expect him to stay? Front Office Perspective Meanwhile, the front office has to think it’s doing a good job – or at least as good a job as is possible under some difficult circumstances. They’ve brought in some big names and spent some big money for sure, but that hasn’t translated into success. They’ve also talked a lot about their player valuation process and have (seemingly) stuck to their word when trying to sign or extend players. I’m sure they’ve spent lots of time the last two years planning their pitches and forecasting their budgets for Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto. Those efforts turned out to be futile, but I would love to know the operational cost of planning for a reported offer of $700 million to Othani and slightly less than that to Soto. Is that partly why negotiations with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. never really seemed to take much urgency? Or why talks with Bo Bichette haven’t even started?! The farm system features some interesting names, but FanGraphs ranks the organization 23rd overall, so it’s not as if we’re well positioned for the future. Back to the Guerrero negotiations for a moment, without anyone leaking numbers (yet) we’re all just guessing how far apart “not close” is. Scenario Vlad Wanted A Reasonable Deal Vlad Wanted Too Much Jays Made a Reasonable Offer A fantasy land where we get to be happy. Jays have to get creative, but a deal probably gets done. Jays Lowballed Vlad A deal probably gets done We are here? Maybe this is giving the front office too much credit — and “too much” is just as nebulous as “not close” — but unless their internal valuation and projections for Vladdy are more Sano and less Soto, they must think they’re making the right call. Ownership Perspective The reality of the Jays front office situation is that Shapiro and Atkins only have to be worried about their jobs if Edward Rogers and the board of directors are unhappy. Rogers is spending a reported $300 million on their multi-year renovation project. They’ve raised single and season ticket prices annually. How much of a dip in attendance would have to be projected for Shapiro and Atkins to really sweat? Last year saw a drop of 4,000 tickets per game from 2023. Can the fan base and ticket sales handle an honest, teardown rebuild? Or would ownership be content if the Blue Jays remained just competitive enough to be in the Wild Card hunt? As the offers to Ohtani and Soto indicated, Rogers was okay with spending $700 million under the right circumstances, but they’re certainly not handing the Jays a handful of blank cheques to go on a spree with. I’ve asked a lot of questions through this piece with very few answers, but from all perspectives, the biggest one might be: Who is best to lead this franchise forward? View full article

The Blue Jays can lay claim to the secret to the Philadelphia Eagles' success. Championships await. The Philadelphia Eagles are Super Bowl champions. Even if you don’t follow football, you’ve likely heard their rallying cry: “Go Birds!” On the surface, it seems innocuous. An eagle is a bird. It doesn’t take much of a leap to see how they got there. One small problem: the NFL is also home to the Falcons, Seahawks, Ravens, and Cardinals. Sure, the Eagles are champions in part because of their superior roster and coaching, but let’s not underestimate the psychological advantage they gained by claiming the mantel of the one true bird team. Every time the Falcons, Seahawks, Ravens, and Cardinals hear someone shout, “Go Birds,” their ears perk up, and then, crestfallen, they realize that although they’re birds, they’re not the birds. The Blue Jays are well-situated to replicate that enormous competitive advantage and in so doing lay the groundwork for future championships. So let’s look at how they get there. For starters, we need to acknowledge the first hurdle: the phrase “Go Birds” is copyrighted by the Eagles. Although the rallying cry has been in use since 1984, they’ve only had the copyright since 2022. That means we can’t make official Jays merch with the phrase, but it doesn’t mean the fan base can’t take it and run with it. You think those guys selling “One BJ is better than 9 Yanks” shirts out in front of the Dome are officially licensed? Or that there won’t be Etsy shops suddenly filled with associated gear? So we won’t ask for permission. We’ll win a couple World Series and then ask for forgiveness. The Eagles have four other bird teams to contend with, while the Jays get off light, only needing to assert their dominance over the Cardinals and Orioles. The Blue Jays were founded in 1977 and have been around for 48 seasons. That makes them the new kid on the block. The Orioles have been around since 1901 (124 seasons) and the Cardinals even longer (1882, 143 seasons). Those other two teams had a combined 219 years to claim the phrase before the Jays were ever founded and they did nothing! We can call dibs. Is there a championship criterion to consider? The Cardinals have won 11 championships, far outpacing the Orioles’ three and Jays’ two. St. Louis also leads in playoff appearances with 32 compared to Baltimore’s 16 and Toronto’s 10. Of course, if we cut out the head start and only look at 1977 onward, the race gets a lot tighter (STL: 3, TOR: 2, BAL: 1). Returning to the NFL, the Eagles have as many championships as the Ravens and one more than the Seahawks, but they also have the lowest Super Bowl winning percentage of the three, so for this criterion, it’s enough that the Jays are close. Let’s look at the birds themselves. Cardinals have the smallest range of the three birds while Blue Jays and Orioles cover a similar sized area. I’m giving the tiebreak to the Jays here for spending their winters up north while the Orioles migrate south. Where did they get their names? The Blue Jay’s scientific name, Cyanocitta cristata, simply means blue and jay (which is to say, having a prominent crest). Easy, direct, and to the point. Cardinals are named due to their resemblance to the red-clad Cardinals of the Roman Catholic Church. Saving critiques of the Church for another time, I’ll limit myself to saying the having your name tied to a single religious denomination isn’t very inclusive. Moreover, the Arizona Cardinals have already had their chance to be the “Go Birds!” birds, and they lost it. Baltimore Orioles get their name because they resembled the coat of arms belonging to the family of Lord Baltimore and a different species of bird from Eurasia. That coat of arms sports two leopards, a shield, and the golden colour that sparked the recognition. Very convoluted, very classist. Another point to the Jays. Now let’s look at longevity. The oldest recorded Oriole was 12 years old. The oldest Cardinal, 15 years and 9 months. The oldest Blue Jay? 26 years and 11 months!! That’s as old as Bo Bichette! Blue Jays are built to last. It’s clear that in the animal kingdom, the Blue Jay is the dominant bird. We need to leverage that dominance (especially over our Division rival) and bring it to the ballpark. Let your “Go Birds!” calls be heard, and a championship team will emerge. View full article