Mike LeSage

Daulton Varsho returned from the injured list on April 29 following offseason shoulder surgery and has been absolutely mashing the ball. He leads the team in slugging and is tied for the lead in home runs and triples. The offensive outburst is as welcome as it is surprising, but that’s not what I’m here to talk about today; Jays Centre's Jim Scott already wrote about the bat over the weekend. Varsho won his first Gold Glove last season and led the Blue Jays to their second consecutive Gold Glove Team Award. I also think there’s an easy case to be made that he was robbed of a Gold Glove in 2023 as well, just because he shared the outfield with Kevin Kiermaier – but we’ll save that debate for another day. All of that to say, Varsho is known for his glove, so much so that he’s made some unbelievable plays look routine, and I don’t want to take that for granted. In fact, before we get to the plays Varsho has made this season, we’re going to start with one he didn’t. Leading off the top of the second inning at Rogers Centre on May 16, Riley Greene hit a solo home run to left-centre field. It was measured at 402 feet and would have been a homer in 24 out of 30 major league stadiums. Funnily enough, the Tigers' home field (Comerica Park) would have contained this ball, and you can bet, given how far up the wall he got, Varsho would’ve made the catch there. Seriously, take a second to check that link out if you haven't already. Not only does Varsho scale the wall to a height I’ve never seen at the Rogers Centre, but he does it with his characteristic seeming effortlessness. It was a noble and visually stunning enough effort to catch the attention of LJ Rader, who runs the ArtButMakeItSports accounts on various social media platforms. Comparing Varsho at the apex of his climb to Banksy’s Well Hung Lover seems apt in a PG-13 way that I think Daulton would appreciate. Shifting to the catches Varsho has made, we’ll be leaning on Statcast’s star ranking system. They give each playable ball a percentage-based catch probability that accounts for opportunity time, travel distance required and direction: 0-25% - 5 Star 26-50% - 4 Star 51-75% - 3 Star 76-90% - 2 Star 91-95% - 1 Star Anything above 95% doesn’t get a star; outfielders are just expected to make those plays. A more detailed description of what goes into the classification of catches can be found here. For an example of a ball with 95% catchability that landed for a hit, I will refer you to this play from 2022 that Jays fans certainly remember: Raimel Tapia’s inside-the-park grand slam. Now, on to the Var-show! 1-Star Catches Not all 1-star catches are created equal. Varsho has made four such catches so far this season. Two of them were fairly standard in appearance. He routinely gets such good jumps on contact and takes such efficient routes that he makes 1-star catches standing still and waiting for the ball to arrive. This home run-saving catch up against the wall surprisingly also only got one star, though based on Kevin Gausman’s reaction, I’d say this one deserves to be ranked higher: And then we have the unicorn: Statcast only looks at the cold, hard, measurable facts. Varsho had to travel 67 feet in 5.8 seconds to make this warning track catch. It doesn’t care that his feet got tangled on the route, or that two of those 5.8 seconds were spent in a tumble with his back to the ball, or that when he did make the catch he was on one knee, looking over his shoulder and stabbing his left arm out at an awkward angle. It certainly doesn’t care about how quick and cool his behind-the-back ball transition was. Easily the most impressive 1-star catch of the Statcast Era. 2-Star Catches Once again, Varsho has four qualifying catches in this category – one in each direction. They’re all pretty routine-looking. Again, he gets such quick and efficient jumps on contact that he’s in position with plenty of time. We’ve got a sharp line drive that was hit 31 feet in front of him, a ball 71 feet to his left, one 83 feet to his right and one that backed him up to the warning track, 63 feet behind him. 3-Star Catches Two entries at this level, and both come in with a 50% chance of being caught. Here we can really see the difficulty ramping up. On this catch, Varsho ranges to his right in a sprint, covering the 69 feet needed and even has to mix in a little half-slide to finish the grab in 4.2 seconds from the release of the pitch. On the other, he has to go 76 feet straight back to the wall, and his momentum sends him crashing into the padding with significant force: 4-Star Catches Daulton Varsho hasn’t made a 4-star catch yet this season. He hasn’t missed any either, he just hasn’t had an opportunity for one. Six other Blue Jays have had 10 combined chances to make a 4-star play, but nine of them have dropped in for hits. The only successful defensive effort on one of these balls was this diving grab by Myles Straw in left field. He only had 3.1 seconds to cover the ground needed to make the play (40% catchability). Straw is a Gold Glove winner in his own right, and while his acquisition ahead of this season was not widely celebrated, he’s been better than advertised when called upon and is as easy of a defensive substitution call in late innings as maybe any player the Jays have ever had. 5-Star Catches Varsho only has one 5-star catch this season (so far), but it's a beauty: He covers 87 feet in the blink of an eye (4.7 seconds) and makes the catch (5% probability) at full extension with enough time and space to slide and slow his approach into the wall. Not to be outdone, Straw has a pair of 5% catches to his name this season. Both of Straw’s efforts saw him travel towards right-centre, covering 93 and 102 feet to make his grabs. Of all the players with more than one Out Above Average (OAA) this season, none has a higher total catch percentage than Varsho. The Statcast rating system lends itself very well to the analytics vs. eye-test debate, but I think that anyway you slice it, the Blue Jays got a great one in Daulton Varsho. View full article

How I stopped worrying and learned to love the K, indeed!

Weekly Snapshot: Record Last Week: 2-4 (Overall: 22-24) Run Differential Last Week: -6 (Overall: -27) Standings: Place in AL East (4.5 GB), 10th in AL (3.0 GB of Third Wild Card) Last Week’s Results May 12 - 18 Game 41: TB 11 - TOR 9 Jose Berrios: 5.1 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 4 K, 3 BB Daulton Varsho: 2 HR HRs for Ernie Clement and Bo Bichette Hoffman: blown save (0.1 IP, 4 H, 5 ER, 1 K, 1 BB) Game 42: TOR 3 - TB 1 Chris Bassitt: 5.2 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 6 K, 2 BB Alejandro Kirk: 2 for 4, 3-run HR, and threw out Chandler Simpson Game 43: TB 8 - TOR 3 Kevin Gausman: 5.2 IP, 10 H, 6 ER, 6 K, 0 BB Bichette: 3 for 4 Addison Barger, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Nathan Lukes all with solo HRs Lukes: OF assist Game 44: DET 5 - TOR 4 Bowden Francis: 4.2 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 6 K, 2 BB Varsho: Hit HR, climbed WAY up the wall on Greene’s HR Vladdy: 500th career run Jonatan Clase: OF assist Bichette: HR Game 45: TOR 2 - DET 1 Eric Lauer, Yariel Rodriguez, Brendon Little, Chad Green, Yimi Garcia, and Jeff Hoffman: 9 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 7 K, 2 BB Clement walk off RBI Kirk game-tying RBI Lukes OF assist Game 46: DET 3 - TOR 2 Berrios: 6.0 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 4 K, 1 BB Left nine on base, leadoff runner on 5 times Highlights: Daulton Varsho continues to defy the odds, both with his bat and in the field. Three home runs on the week - including one off the face of the 500 level! Plus, we’ve come to expect the weekly defensive highlights. He couldn’t stop Reily Greene’s home run against Detroit, but he went higher up the outfield wall than anyone I can recall and garnered the notice of Art, but Make it Sports. Not to be outdone by Varsho, a couple of his outfield mates came up with big OF assists this week, with Nathan Lukes and Jonathan Clase showing off their arms. Alejandro Kirk only had three hits this week, but one was the game-tying RBI against Detroit; the others came in the win over Tampa, where Kirk’s 3-run HR brought in all the runs Toronto would score that game. Bo Bichette, Varsho, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. were the three Jays with wRC+ at 200 or higher this week. All three swung the bat well. Lowlights: Jeff Hoffman had some solid appearances later in the week, but when you start it off with a grand slam blown save in the first game of the week, you’re going to be in the lowlight section every time. It took until the last game of the week for a Jays starter to see the end of the 6th inning. The bullpen has been good, but the more they’re called on, the more trouble we can get into. Anthony Santander went 1 for 12 in the Tampa series. Then missed a pair of games against Detroit, dealing with a shoulder issue (he came in as a pinch hitter in the second game). He returned on Sunday, but found himself hitting 6th (his first time outside of the 3-spot). He went 0 for 4 with 3 Ks and didn’t inspire much confidence. News, Notes, and Not Playing Day-to-Day: Anthony Santander, Santander missed a couple of games with a “cranky shoulder” and DH’d on Sunday. 10-day IL: Andrés Giménez Giménez is ramping up baseball activities. 15-day IL: Nick Sandlin Sandlin planning to throw off a mound early this week 60-day IL: Max Sherzer, Erik Swanson, Ryan Burr Swanson and Burr are currently rehabbing with Buffalo. Scherzer felt some tightness after throwing to hitters this week. Looking Ahead With an off day and a Holiday Monday here in Toronto, the Jays get a break before the Padres come to town. After that 3-game set, it’s down to Florida to take on the Rays in their temporary home at Steinbrenner Field. View full article

Ahead of spring training, we looked at some milestones that Blue Jays players might reach this season. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. getting to 500 runs is the last of the “Ironclad Locks” to fall, with Andrés Giménez's 100th stolen base and José Berríos’ 100th win being the others. The big part of Vladdy's milestone, of course, is that he’s scored all 500 with the Jays. As we celebrate the 500th, we look back and reflect on all the runs that led to this point. His first run came in his 14th game with the Jays. He had reached base 15 times previously, but those behind him in the order failed to drive him in. His first 13 games in a Toronto uniform represent his longest career scoring drought. So, in the top of the first inning against Nick Vincent and the San Francisco Giants, Vladdy took things into his own hands and scored his first run as a Blue Jay in a package deal with his first home run. A solo shot to deep CF. Fittingly, at the end of that video, one of Vladdy’s former teammates, Teoscar Hernández, is seen celebrating with him (and helping clear sunflower seeds out of his hair). Hernández was responsible for driving Vladdy home 38 times, the second-most of any teammate Guerrero has had. Topping the list is Alejandro Kirk with 42. Altogether, forty different teammates have had a hand in getting Vladdy to this milestone. After Kirk and Hernández, it’s Bo Bichette (27), Randal Grichuk (24), Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (19), and Matt Chapman (17) at the top of the list. Those six have combined to bring Guerrero home almost as many times as Vladdy has done it himself (165). Not surprisingly, Guerrero has scored most of his runs against AL East opponents, with his 71 against Baltimore topping the list. He has 61 against Boston, 48 against Tampa Bay, and 40 when facing the Yankees. His 27 runs against Kansas City represent the most outside of the division, and his 13 against Philly the most against an NL team. Despite having scored ten more runs against the Orioles than the Red Sox, Vladdy has more runs scored at Fenway Park than at any other away location. In his career with the Jays, Vladdy has taken at least one plate appearance from every spot in the order but has only scored runs when batting in the 2-6 holes. He has the most plate appearances batting third, so it’s no surprise that he’s scored more (312 times) from that spot in the lineup than anywhere else. What is a little shocking is that his runs per plate appearance are highest when batting fifth. It’s a marginal increase, but surprising nonetheless. Don’t worry, you won’t be seeing any “Should Vladdy Hit Lower in the Order?” articles from me. His 25 runs to this point in the season have him just outside of the top 10 in the AL at 17th (one run behind a 6-player tie with 26 runs). He finished eighth both last season and in 2022. In 2021, when the Jays had their most prolific offense of the last decade, Vladdy led both the team and the entire league with his 123 runs scored. After getting on base in a very uncharacteristic fashion, with a slow-rolling infield single, Vladdy was in position for the milestone. Guerrero's 500th run came courtesy of a Daulton Varsho home run in the 6th inning against Detroit. He’s scored runs in every inning, including 11 in extras, but he's scored in the 6th more than any other. Most runs in the great game of baseball are scored when a batter drives them in. In Vladdy's case, he has done it himself with a home run about one-third of the time (165 times). Slightly under two-thirds of the time, it has been a teammate getting him home with a hit (or sacrifice) of their own (323 times). Then, on very rare occasions, he hasn't been driven in at all. That is to say, he has scored a run where no RBI is granted (12 times). Things like scoring on a wild pitch or coming home while the batter grounds into a double play are two examples of what I like to call the "Mystery Bag" of runs. In the extremely rare case of an extra innings run overlapping with the ‘Mystery Bag’ portion of his runs scored, we have this beautiful case of heads-up baserunning where Vladdy scored from third on a wild pitch in the 10th inning: If he keeps this pace up, we should be back here in 2032 celebrating the next 500. Hope to see you all then! View full article

Tuesday night against the Angels, Jeff Hoffman was brought in to stop the bleeding after Yimi García and some bad luck saddled him with a blown save and the Jays with a tied game. Instead, Hoffman turned in his worst performance of the season (to date), allowing the inherited runners plus three of his own to score and put the game out of reach. All in just nine pitches. For better or worse, that brief appearance on Tuesday meant that Hoffman was available again the next night. This time, coming in with a clean slate and a two-run lead, Hoffman loaded the bases (a walk and two singles) before recording the first out. The next batter, Jorge Soler, cleared the bases with a double and walked off the Jays and Hoffman. A week before those two games, we named Hoffman the runner-up for the Pitcher of the Month award, and there was a case to be made that he could have won that award. Are the back-to-back blowups the sign of a trend? Is the closer's job in jeopardy? Would the Jays have been better off just re-signing Jordan Romano? Let’s tackle those questions in reverse order. First off, no, Romano would not be a help right now. In case you haven’t followed his move to Philly, it’s been a struggle. His current bWAR (-0.7), ERA (9.45), ERA+ (45), and WHIP (1.800) all represent career worsts, which, given how his 2024 in Toronto went, is quite a feat. I think it’s also premature to start talking about a threat to Hoffman’s role. He wasn’t guaranteed the closer role when he was signed, but he was given the first shot at it, and before his last two appearances, he had earned seven saves behind a 1.45 FIP and 1.10 ERA. Yimi García would be the first logical name to threaten the role, but his struggles in Anaheim roughly washes out the argument. Mason Fluharty and Brendon Little have pitched well and likely earned some trust in higher leverage situations, but I don’t think they’ve entered the closer discussion yet. Nick Sandlin and Chad Green each have one save to their names and came in games when both Hoffman and García were unavailable. The Jays have been aggressive in terms of managing their bullpen personnel on the active roster. Still, I expect them to be more conservative with the ninth inning assignment, especially in save situations. In the James Bond book, Goldfinger, Ian Fleming wrote, “Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times is enemy action.” With Hoffman’s struggles, we’re still in the coincidence phase. I looked at his relief appearances going back to 2021 to see if I could find any enemy action (or a trend). Including this season, Jeff Hoffman has made 192 appearances in regular-season relief and has given up three or more earned runs seven times (two this week). Prior to this week, he’s followed up with improved performance in his next appearance every time. This week also marked the first time he pitched on back-to-back days after that shaky outing. I looked at his history of giving up runs when pitching on 0 days rest, and there’s a slight bump when he has at least one day rest (roughly 0.2 runs/inning), but nothing significant. There is an inherent small sample issue with relievers, so breaking things down further yielded similar coincidental results. He’s had one other appearance in Angel Stadium (a clean inning and earned the save in 2024), he’s faced the Angels three times before that, and has never given up a run. With Alejandro Kirk or Tyler Heineman catching, his peripheral stats are pretty similar, too. The earned runs are heavily skewed, but I think we’re safe calling it a coincidence for now. View full article

With the Blue Jays in Anaheim to take on the Angels, we look back at a classic "series" from the mid-90s. In July 1994, Disney released the movie Angels in the Outfield. It featured a star-studded cast of actors, including Danny Glover, Tony Danza, Christopher Lloyd, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Neal McDonough, Adrien Brody and Matthew McConaughey. They all played characters on the Angels' side of the ball, though, so we won’t concern ourselves with them. Instead, let's talk about their first opponent. The first time we see the Angels in action, it’s in a series against the Toronto Blue Jays. Many movies have been made about baseball, and the Jays are still waiting for their chance to feature. Even when not the focus, you can’t make a baseball movie without an opponent. Still, we almost never see Toronto make an appearance. At most, we’ve been relegated to "montage team" status when the team that is the focus of the movie inevitably goes on a winning streak. So, this “family sports fantasy comedy-drama film” (great descriptor, Wikipedia) represents the most screen time the Blue Jays have been afforded. The first game we see of the series is pretty limited (JG-L is watching through binoculars from a tree outside the stadium), and we join the game in the top of the eighth inning. A glimpse of the scoreboard shows the Jays are up 7-0 with 12 hits so far. Right-handed hitter Ackers is up to bat, and his .282 batting average is displayed on the screen. The last Blue Jay to hit .282 was Corey Dickerson in his 46 games with Toronto in 2021. What should be a routine flyout leads to a collision in the outfield, and the ensuing pitching change sparks a benches-clearing brawl. The Toronto manager, played by the director of the film (one of only two credited Blue Jays), calls his team back, yelling, “Not our fight.” Blue Jays win. Images courtesy of Walt Disney Pictures. The second game sees JG-L getting inside the stadium, and we get a pitchers duel. Leading off for the Jays we have third basemen, Warren Barley. He hits an absolute rocket up the middle, almost taking out the Angels pitcher. The launch angle couldn’t be more than a degree or two – if Barley can add some lift to his swing, he could be in for a monster season. I timed it out going frame-by-frame, and by my calculation, this hit had an exit velocity of 136 mph. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has the hardest hit ball in the league so far this year, which clocked in at 120.4 mph. We jump to the top of the 6th, and the Jays have only managed three more hits after that leadoff blast. The Angels’ play-by-play announcer notes that they’ve “kept the hard-hitting Blue Jays silent,” so we know, at least relative to the Angels, the Jays can rake. That brings Toronto left fielder Asher Lazzato to the plate. He’s hitting .293 on the season, and if he can keep that pace up, he’ll leapfrog George Bell’s 1984 and Carlos Delgado’s 1998 seasons for 49th place on the Jays' single-season leaderboard. Lazzato makes LOUD contact with the first pitch he sees. The movie elects to switch to slo-mo here, which makes statistical analysis tricky. Based on the trajectory of the ball, it looks like more bark than bite and should be a catchable ball at the warning track. Angels right fielder Ben Williams gets a terrible jump and takes a worse route tracking the fly, which makes his divine catch all the more unbelievable. We don’t get to see the next batter, but his announced name/nickname combo is enough that we’ve gotta note it here: “Batting next for the Blue Jays, number 58 ‘The Irminator’ Irving Nator.” Just perfect. 10 out of 10, no notes. The Irminator must not have gotten a hit, because we jump to the bottom of the ninth and the Toronto stat line hasn't changed. An unnamed Blue Jays pitcher (number 20 in your programs) stands on the mound. Considering this is 1994 and there’s a one-hit shutout in play, we’re going to assume this is the starter. We don’t see complete games much anymore – Kevin Gausman had two last season and led the league! Back in ‘94, though, the Jays had at least one complete game from every starter in the rotation. Pat Hentgen led the team with 6, Todd Stottlemyre had three, Juan Guzmán did it twice, and Dave Stewart and Al Leiter had one each. Number 20, whose last name might be Brown, is unfortunately on the wrong side of another divine intervention, and the game ends with an Angels walk-off home run. Just like that, it’s the end of the Jays' time in the movie. There’s a flash in a montage of a play at third base, but it doesn’t offer much to analyze. The biggest takeaway from this exercise should be that it’s time for Toronto to get a leading role. Lights up, let’s go! View full article

Love any analysis that comes with the caveat "This could certainly be a coincidence. It probably is." Those are always the most fun. Well done!

With the Jays at home and the Leafs on the road it was a night of shifting focus, and this time Toronto coming out on top. I was fortunate to be gifted a pair of tickets to the Jays game Thursday evening. On the train in there were a lot of fans in jerseys, but for every Guerrero Jr. or Bichette in the crowd there were twice as many Matthews and Marner ones. You see, while the Red Sox were in town to take on the Jays, the main focus of the city was on a game 450km away in Ottawa where the Leafs had a(nother) chance to close out their series with the Senators. The Jays are still in the early days of the season (how long do we get to say “there’s a lot of season left”?) while the NHL is into the playoffs, so the imbalance in importance and focus is understandable. If we’re being honest though, this is a hockey-first city 365 days a year. For those in the Rogers Centre (announced attendance of 24,198) I would estimate about 1-in-5 had a phone out keeping tabs on what was happening in Ottawa - myself included. Between innings there was a lot of “any updates?” chatter in the seats and on the concourse. There was a divided focus I’ve never witnessed before at a live sporting event. Confession time. I was born in Toronto, grew up in Toronto, currently live in Toronto, but I have never been a Leafs fan. The closest I’ve come to supporting the Leafs was in 2003 when they signed Joe Nieuwendyk. I was a big fan of the Oshawa-native and had hoped he would sign in Detroit, but we’ll come back to him. Nikolai Borschevsky in ‘93 still shows up occasionally in my nightmares and was probably the peak of my hatred for the Blue and White. After that crushing loss the Red Wings moved to the Western Conference and the rivalry with the Leafs faded. For the two decades that followed I was mostly happy to see the Leafs be successful. When a Toronto team is winning there’s a better energy in the city. I’m not a huge basketball fan, but when the Raptors won the championship in 2019 Toronto was electric. Back to the Thursday night Jays - it was a quiet night early on in the Dome. Through 6 innings the Jays had mustered three hits and it looked like they were cruising towards another no-offense disappointing evening. Daulton Varsho made a signature catch crashing into the outfield wall that got a few people out of their seats and making some noise. Addison Barger had a pair of defensive highlights that elicited some oohs and aahs from the crowd. But by far, the loudest reaction in the stadium came from some simple text flashed up on the jumbotron: “Leafs 2 : Sens 0 - 2nd period”. Daulton Varsho’s home run in the bottom of the 7th started the comeback. Around the same time, David Perron was scoring the tying goal in Ottawa to knot that game at 2. Thankfully, a Nathan Lukes single, followed by a Bo Bichette double brought Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to the plate with the tying run 90-feet away in the bottom of the 8th. I’ve got to imagine that a lot fewer people were checking their phones at this point. Working his way to a full count Guerrero hammered (111.8mph exit velocity) a Justin Slaten fastball over the wall in left-center to give the Jays a 4-2 lead. Yimi García would come in for the top of the 9th to earn the save and lock up the Toronto win. By the time the players had celebrated on the field and the ceremonial Gatorade had been dumped on Vladdy the attention had shifted back to Ottawa - the game there was still tied. Before we were clear of the concourse Max Pacioretty had scored to give the Leafs a 3-2 lead with about 6 minutes left in the game. By the time we hit the SkyWalk on the way to Union Station, William Nylander was putting his 2nd of the game into an empty net to lock up another Toronto win. The “Go, Leafs, Go!” chants, which had been sporadic before kicked up another gear and continued in every direction (and I assume, well into the night). This time it was Nylander with a pair. Back in 2004 it was Joe Nieuwendyk with a pair leading the Leafs over the Sens in an elimination game to advance beyond the first round. At the same time it was Roy Halladay and Pedro Martinez dueling in a 4-2 game, this time with Boston taking the win. Some things change, some things stay the same. That year the Leafs only went as far as the 2nd round, falling to the Philadelphia Flyers. The Jays would go on to finish 5th in the AL East. What might change this year? What might stay the same? The longer the Leafs can extend their run and the more runs the Jays can put up the more exciting the city will be. View full article

With a couple more series in the rearview, Jays Centre takes a moment to look back at the week that was. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 4/28 through Sun, 5/4 *** Record Last Week: 3-3 (Overall: 16-18) Run Differential Last Week: -6 (Overall: -33) Standings: Fourth Place in AL East (3.0 GB), 11th in AL (2.5 GB of Third Wild Card) Last Week’s Results Game 29: TOR 2 - BOS 10 Francis: 3.0 IP, 8 H, 7 ER, 0 BB, 1 K (5 HRs!) Vladdy - 3rd HR Varsho - Ridiculous catch Game 30: TOR 7 - BOS 6 (10 innings) Lauer: 4.0 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K (Yariel Rodríguez pitched one inning as opener) HRs from Varsho, Kirk and Santander. Comeback from 6-0. Hoffman - Career K #500, two perfect innings Game 31: TOR 4 - BOS 2 Berríos: 6.2 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8 K Varsho: HR Vladdy: 3-run HR Game 32: TOR 5 - CLE 3 Bassitt: 5.1 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 4 K Springer: HR, 2 BB Kirk: 3-for-4, 2 RBI Game 33: TOR 3 - CLE 5 Gausman: 6.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 K Bichette - First dinger of the season Game 34: TOR 4 - CLE 5 Francis: 4.1 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 2 K Giménez: 2-for-4 with a run and 2 RBI Highlights Daulton Varsho came off the IL in a big way this week. He only had three hits over five games (14 ABs), but two of them left the yard. On a team struggling for power, he’s now tied for fifth in homers with about 100 fewer at-bats than the guys around him. Weeks from now, it’s not the power we’re going to remember, though. It’s not even this catch against Boston. It’s this one: The thumbnail on the video says, “Is this the best catch ever?!” Mike Wilner of the Toronto Star called it “the greatest thing he’s ever seen on a baseball field.” Statcast rates the ball as having 95% catchability, but that doesn’t take into account the mid-stride tumble, somersault and recovery. Pure highlight. Nathan Lukes only had eight at-bats this week, but he made the most of them. Batting ninth against Boston in the final game of that series, he had a pair of hits and, importantly, reached base in front of Bo and Vladdy, who turned the tide in that game. He also had a timely hit against the Guardians the next night and drove in the winning run against Cleveland. A 271 wRC+ on the week is nothing to complain about. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had the kind of week we’re all hoping to see more of. First, he was named Hitter of the Month. Then he came through with two home runs and six RBI (both team highs on the week) with some defensive highlights mixed in. Kevin Gausman pitched a gem against the Guardians on Minecraft Day at the Dome. Six innings of one-hit ball against Cleveland with nine strikeouts and a solitary walk is the kind of performance we love to see from Gausman. He was in line for the win that day, but… Lowlights Yimi García had a nightmare of a performance on Saturday. Fresh on the heels of finishing third in our Pitcher of the Month rankings, he dug himself into an early hole for the May rankings. He’s been fantastic this season, but when you give up your first, second, third and fourth runs on the season on a single swing of the bat, you’re going to find yourself in the lowlights section. Bowden Francis didn’t have his best week either. His 4.1 IP against Cleveland weren’t great, but were a marked improvement from his start in Boston at the beginning of the week. Giving up five home runs in three innings of work and forcing the ‘pen to come in early is always tough. It doesn’t seem like he was tipping pitches, and if he was, Cleveland didn’t get the memo for his next start, so hopefully this was a one-off and we don’t see Francis back here again. We can’t say Leo Morgenstern didn’t warn us, though. News, Notes and Not Playing Toronto reached agreements with free agent pitchers Spencer Turnbull and José Ureña. Turnbull has been optioned to the FCL Blue Jays to start ramping up. Will Wagner was (surprisingly?) sent down to Buffalo. Day-to-day: Daulton Varsho Varsho’s impact was felt right away, as he came off the 10-day IL and had a big week for the team, but he was a late scratch ahead of Sunday’s game. I expect he will be good to go for the upcoming series, but with a pair of lefty starters on the horizon, he may get an extra maintenance day or two. 15-day IL: Nick Sandlin 60-day IL: Max Scherzer, Erik Swanson Scherzer threw a “heavy bullpen” session this week, and his recovery from that will determine the next move in his return to the roster. Swanson met with another doctor for a second opinion on his forearm, but there are no signs of structural damage. Both Scherzer and Swanson were shifted to the 60-day as corresponding moves for the Turnbull and Ureña signings. Trending Storyline Power and Runs: This feels like it’ll be trending all season. The Texas Rangers just fired their offensive coordinator, as their club sits last in the AL in runs (113), 27th in the league in OPS (.644) and 19th in homers (31). The Jays, by comparison, are third-worst in the AL in runs (120), 24th in MLB in OPS (.661) and dead last in homers (23). The Jays hit eight home runs this week, and they all came from the names we expect to see doing damage, so maybe the calendar flipping over to May is all they need to buck the trend. Looking Ahead Toronto is back on the road, starting with a series in Los Angeles taking on the Angels and then heading up to Seattle to battle the Mariners. Former Jay, Yusei Kikuchi, is the expected starter on Wednesday and is still looking for his first win of the season. View full article

For a team fighting to get back to .500, you can imagine there have been some divergent pitching performances. Three pitchers that made appearances on Opening Day are no longer on the active roster, and for every flash of brilliance, there seems to be an accompanying moment where we as fans bury our faces in our hands. As a team, the Blue Jays currently sit 22nd for ERA (4.31), 24th for FIP (4.41), and 20th for fWAR (1.8), and they have given up more home runs than any other team in baseball. March/April Pitchers of the Month #3 - Yimi García - 13 IP, 0 ER, 16 K, 4 BB, 4 HLD García is the only pitcher the Jays have who has yet to give up a run. He struck out all four batters he faced in the April 16 game against Atlanta, helping propel Toronto to a new team record. He’s mixed his pitches well and sports a 1.77 FIP, good for second on the team. He’s even picked up a save on a night when our #2 pitcher was unavailable. #2 - Jeff Hoffman - 15.1 IP, 2 ER, 22 K, 1 BB, 6 SV Apologies to (future Hall of Famer) Max Scherzer, but Jeff Hoffman has been, by far, Toronto's most impactful offseason pitching acquisition. Hoffman’s only walk issued on the season was an intentional one in an extra-innings game against Boston in which he pitched the ninth and 10th innings and picked up the win. He’s secured the save in every opportunity he’s been given and has earned three bonus wins with late Jays victories - each time pitching two scoreless innings. When Hoffman was signed, Ross Atkins said, “Jeff will get an opportunity to close games.” He has certainly made the most of that opportunity. #1 - Chris Bassitt - 34.1 IP, 10 ER, 39 K, 7 BB, 2.32 FIP He was projected to be a stable, middle-of-the-rotation, inning-eating pitcher. What he’s been so far is outstanding. He’s our pitcher of the month: Chris Bassitt. They call him the Hound on the Mound, and going into his last start, he led the AL in FIP; in other words, he got that dog in him. Even on the heels of his worst performance of the season, he still ranks fourth in the AL in FIP and top ten in bWAR, BB/9, K/9, Ks, K/BB, and ERA+. His performances have also allowed him to lead the team in innings pitched, and considering the way the Jays have had to lean on their bullpen, that’s a level of value slightly more difficult to quantify. Bassitt was also one of the vocal veterans towards the end of a disappointing season last year, saying that the Jays had ‘unfixable’ problems. He walked those comments back some, but a lot of people (myself included) didn’t fully buy his reframing of the initial statement. That makes statements like the one above, shared with Keegan Matheson a couple of weeks ago, even more impactful. If that attitude is supplying a positive feedback loop culminating in Bassitt's results, that would be another theoretical feather in the front office's cap. Bassitt is 36 years old and in the last year of his contract. If he can keep Father Time at a distance and continue putting in performances like he has through March/April, this won’t be the last time we see him in this column. View full article

The Jays won a series, lost a series and left a lot of runners on base. Let's look back at the week that was. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 4/14 through Sun, 4/20 *** Record Last Week: 3-3 (Overall: 12-10) Run Differential Last Week: -6 (Overall: +2) Standings: Second Place in AL East (2.0 GB), 3rd Place in AL Wildcard (0.0 GB) Last Week's Results: Game 17: | ATL 8 - TOR 4 Lucas: 5.0 IP, 6 H, 8 ER, 4 BB, 3 K Straw: 1-for-2, HR Game 18: | ATL 3 - TOR 6 Gausman: 6.0 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 6 K Roden: first career home run. Santander: 3-run HR same inning Game 19: | ATL 1 - TOR 3 Bassitt: 5.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 10 K Guerrero Jr.: 2-for-3 with first HR of the season Team record for K’s in a nine-inning game Game 20: | SEA 1 - TOR 3 Francis: 6.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K Barger: 3 OF assists Game 21: | SEA 8 - TOR 4 (12 innings) Berríos: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 3 K 12 team hits - none when it counted (nine chances to win) Game 22: | SEA 8 - TOR 3 Lucas: 1.2 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 5 K Shultz: 4.1 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 8 K Highlights Chris Bassitt and his 10 Ks against Atlanta led the charge and set the tone for the Jays to set the team record for strikeouts in a nine-inning game. The bullpen as a whole had a pretty good week. Brendon Little, Nick Sandlin, Yimi García and Jeff Hoffman combined for four innings of one-run ball while striking out nine to set the team record in Bassitt’s start. The next game, Mason Fluharty, Chad Green, García and Hoffman combined for three shutout innings in the win over Seattle. Little, Sandlin, Green and Yariel Rodríguez kept the Jays in it through 11 innings (Berríos’ start) the next game. There were some hiccups – Jacob Barnes took the loss in the 12th inning of that game and has already been DFA’d – but considering the state of the bullpen last season, this has been a bright spot. Paxton Schultz made his first MLB appearance and tied the league record for strikeouts by a reliever in their debut with eight. He pitched 4.1 scoreless innings and kept the Jays within striking distance. Can’t ask for more than that! Addison Barger made his way back to the big club this week and made a couple of highlight-reel plays with his arm. In the span of two innings, he made the first, third and seventh-fastest thrown outfield assists of the season. That includes a 98.8-mph cannon, which was faster than any pitch thrown in the game (Hoffman and Bryan Woo each threw a 98.0-mph fastball to tie for the fastest pitches). Lowlights Run creation. This was especially clear in the extra-innings loss to Seattle. The Jays had nine opportunities where a single would have won the game but came up empty. Outside of the double-HR inning that saw Alan Roden and Anthony Santander go deep, it was really an issue all week. It’s not even a power-drought issue, but the fact that Rowdy Tellez was on the other side of it, crushing a grand slam for the win, was a real exclamation point. No team in the American League has had more plate appearances with RISP than Toronto, but their 82 wRC+ in those situations flat out isn’t good enough. After acing his first two starts, Easton Lucas’ two starts this week were more from the bottom of the deck. 14 earned runs given up in less than seven innings of work (he didn’t see the end of the second inning against Seattle) is a tough look. With this spot in the rotation due up next weekend in the Bronx, we might see a rotation shakeup before then. News, Notes and Not Playing Yimi García celebrated 10 years of service time in the league and has now pitched more innings with Toronto than any other franchise he has been a part of. Nathan Lukes and Daulton Varsho had babies. A time for celebration to be sure, but also a time to reflect on the passage of time. Former Jays Centre managing editor Davy Andrews took a deep dive over at FanGraphs to see if we could learn anything more. Day-to-day: George Springer Springer missed most of the Atlanta series dealing with a wrist issue, but was back in the lineup for the Seattle games. This is his second day-to-day mention and one we’ll be keeping an eye on. 10-day IL: Daulton Varsho Varsho has started a rehab assignment and could be back with the Jays by the end of the month. 15-day IL: Erik Swanson, Ryan Burr, Max Scherzer, Nick Sandlin Sandlin joins the list of pitchers on the 15-day. He had been feeling a lat issue and pitched through it, but the club is taking the cautious route to reevaluate over the next couple of weeks. Scherzer received another cortisone shot in his thumb and is expected to join the Jays on their road trip this week. However, his timeline to return to game action remains unclear. Trending Storyline With just four home runs hit last week, we’re still looking for the power switch to be flipped fully on. Straw’s homer was as satisfying as it was unlikely, Roden and Santander going deep in the same inning was transcendent, and Vladdy getting his first of the season was a good start – but that was it. Only the light-hitting Royals have fewer long balls than Toronto, and considering the Jays' success with getting runners on base, the lack of power production has been especially frustrating. Looking Ahead A three-game set in Houston to start the week and another in New York to take on the Yankees to end it. Daikin Park and Yankee Stadium offer shorter porches in both left and right field than the Rogers Centre… maybe that will kick-start some Toronto power. View full article

Alan Roden hit his first career home run this week and has been a bright spot in the Jays lineup so far. He has a chance to walk a path that few other Jays players have before. Last month, Alan Roden was added to FanGraphs' list of the top 100 prospects. Simon Li wrote about it and noted that the Jays “haven't drafted and developed a solid starting outfielder in a long while.” That got me thinking about it, so I went back and looked at the players who have made up the Blue Jays outfielders the last few seasons. First off, for a player to be considered here they had to play at least a third of the games in a season in the outfield. In a typical 162-game year, that’s a threshold of 54 games (I adjusted appropriately for shortened seasons). In the last six seasons, only the recently demoted Davis Schneider and his 93 outfield starts in 2024 qualify. Going back to 2011, the only other name that gets added to the list is Kevin Pillar. Not happy with that, I took it all the way back to 1977! In the history of the Toronto Blue Jays 68 players have taken a spot in the outfield for at least a third of the games. In the early days of the franchise, the Jays relied on the expansion draft and purchasing contracts to fill their roster. In 1980, Toronto saw the debut of their first drafted outfielder: Lloyd Moseby, who had been taken in the first round of the 1978 draft, would play 104 games. Jesse Barfield, who was drafted a year earlier, would join Moseby in 1982 and anchor the outfield with Rule 5 acquisition George Bell for the majority of the '80s. In the 49-year history of the franchise, Toronto has drafted 14 outfielders who were able to work their way through the minors and contribute at the major league level. Almost two-thirds of those players were drafted before Alan Roden was born! In fact, the top six by bWAR were all drafted before the turn of the millennium (Roden was born December 22, 1999). Without hyperbole, Roden has a real chance to move into the top 10 of this list before the 2025 season is over. Interestingly, of those drafted players, nine were taken in the first three rounds of the draft, and six were first-rounders. Without a doubt, the best value the Jays have ever found in the draft is Jesse Barfield. Barfield's 28.8 bWAR not only tops the list, but he was taken in the ninth round! The deepest into a draft we’ve ever pulled a player who made this list is Kevin Pillar, who was selected in the 32nd round of the 2011 draft. The Jays selected four other outfielders ahead of him that year. None of them ever made the majors. A couple of other fun tidbits to come out of this exercise. One is Fred Lewis, who played 99 games in the Jays outfield in 2010. On Baseball Refernce, Lewis is listed as being “sent” to the Jays as part of a conditional deal. Typically, these moves are phrased as “traded to the Jays…” and that’s how I classified it for the purposes of this article. I can’t find the other half of the deal - it was for a PTBNL or cash, but that either never happened, or I just haven't been able to find a record of it. Another is Candy Maldonado, who was acquired by Toronto in a trade and then also signed later as a free agent. Rather than count him twice, he went in the trade column. To bring this back to Roden, it has absolutely been a long time since we’ve had a drafted player who made it as far as he has. Sure, it’s only 18 games into his Blue Jays career and the road could fork in many different directions, but we’re in the business of dreaming for the future. View full article

Monday night in Toronto, Myles Straw hit a homer that had to be seen and heard to be believed. Before we get to the “clunk” let’s flash back to Toronto’s offseason. General manager Ross Atkins had previously identified power as “lowhanging fruit” in the free agent market, and after finishing 26th in the league in home runs, the Blue Jays were hungry. Naturally, when scouring the league for power potential, the Jays turned their eyes toward the team with the lowest exit velocity and hard-hit rate in the league: the Cleveland Guardians. After a season in which an eight-headed monster comprised of — deep breath — Davis Schneider, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Spencer Horwitz, Cavan Biggio, Leo Jiménez, Will Wagner, Ernie Clement, and Orelvis Martínez shared second base, the Jays saw a chance to grab a player that would nail down the position and bring the power the team had been lacking. Enter Andrés Giménez. All he’s done so far this season is start at second base over 94% of the time and lead the team in homers. Just like we all knew he would. Not satisfied with adding a power-first infielder to the roster, Toronto wanted to make some additions to the outfield. Maybe the previous call hadn’t disconnected. Maybe Ross Atkins instinctively dials the 216 area code because of all the time he spent in Cleveland. Either way, the Jays had Kevin Kiermaier’s four 2024 home runs to replace, and Cleveland had just the man for the job. Myles Straw, pack up your big bat, you’re headed North! Sure, some might have looked at the timing of the trade and come to the conclusion that he was just the straw that stirred the drink in a Rokie Sasaki bonus pool cocktail. Of course, Sasaki went to the Dodgers as expected, so that couldn’t have ever been part of the plan. No, the headline of the deal was surely Straw’s bat anchoring the outfield, even if it was just meant as Daulton Varsho insurance. Look, I’ll level with you, I didn’t believe in Straw’s power either. I left him off of both of Toronto’s pre-season roster projections. I looked at his ISO+ and I believed what I saw. I saw a player with a career ISO+ of 40. Forty. FORTY. As in, 60% below the league average. That's tied for the lowest in the majors over the last decade. In the history of the AL and NL dating back to 1871, Straw's ISO+ is the tied for the 57th-lowest. Ever. There are 3,871 harder-hitting players ranked above him. That’s enough to fill the active roster of 148 separate teams, almost five leagues worth of players! Of course, that’s one of the great things about the game of baseball. When you buy a ticket to a game or put it on the TV, there’s always a chance you’re going to see something special. Something historic. Here’s where we get to Myles Straw’s home run - do yourself a favour and turn the volume all the way up to 11 for this one: So often it’s the crack of the bat on the ball we love to hear, and that’s an undeniably beautiful sound. But this? A ball with a 100.3 mph exit velocity slamming into the front row railing 397 feet away (the third-farthest Straw has ever hit a ball) and the resonating clunk it produces? Almost magical. A clunk with enough reverberation to propel that ball another 8-9 rows into the stands. Straw really has given us more than we expected and I hope the fan who walked away with that souvenir appreciates the gift they were given. View full article

José Berríos joined the 100-win club on Monday at Fenway Park. José Berríos got the win in his last start, and with that he joined the triple-digit club, earning his 100th career win. In our preseason Milestones to Watch For piece we had this in the Ironclad Lock section, and rightfully so (Andrés Giménez has already hit 100 career stolen bases). Fifty-five of those wins came with Minnesota, where Berríos played before joining the Jays. He was a first-round draft pick (32nd overall) in 2012 and made his major league debut in 2016. He bounced between Triple-A and the majors, picking up his first three wins before cementing himself with the big club in May of 2017. He was a two-time all-star with the Twins (2018 and ‘19), and headed into the 2021 trade deadline, he was rumored to be available. Interestingly, two other high-profile pitchers said to be available that year were Max Scherzer, who ultimately went to the Dodgers, and Yusei Kikuchi, who stuck around with the Mariners until the end of the season. Both, of course, would go on to sign as with the Jays as free agents in later years, Kickuchi in ‘22 and Scherzer this season. After the Scherzer trade “fell through” (the Jays were said to be interested, but I can’t find any historical record that says they were front-runners), Toronto turned their sights towards Minnesota and agreed on a deal for Berríos, giving up prospects Austin Martin and Simeon Woods-Richardson. Berríos wasted no time getting into the win column with Toronto, picking up the W in his first start with his new team: a 5-1 win over the Royals in the Rogers Centre. It was an emotional win for both Berríos and the city as it gave the Jays a sweep over the Royals in the first series played in Toronto since the end of the 2019 season. The Jays played home games in Buffalo and Florida due to travel restrictions in the early days of the pandemic. That off-season saw the Jays award Berríos a seven-year, $131 million contract, buying out the last year of arbitration and securing his spot in the rotation for years to come. Since then, he has been Toronto’s Opening Day starter in three out of four seasons and moved up to 18th in franchise history in wins. There are 18 active players with 100 wins or more. At 31, Berríos is the youngest. Only Aaron Nola (age 32, 104 wins) and Michael Wacha (age 33, 101 wins) are within two years of his age. Berríos also has two teammates ahead of him on the list. Kevin Gausman is close (two wins and three years ahead of him), and Scherzer is an entire career ahead (10 years and 116 wins). Eleven of those players ahead of him, including Gausman, are within 12 wins, so depending on how this season shakes out, we could see Berríos leapfrog a few names. I mentioned earlier that Berríos’s 45 wins with the Jays have him 18th in franchise history. He would only need seven more wins to move all the way 11th and to put Kelvim Escobar (58 wins) and J.A. Happ (59 wins) on notice. A 15-win season (something Berríos has only done once) would give him sole possession of ninth and bring Juan Guzmán and Todd Stottlemyre into range for the 2026 season.. Before we get too far ahead of ourselves, let's just take a moment to appreciate the here and now, and hope that Berríos notches 101 in Baltimore tomorrow. View full article