Should We Be Worried About The Hoff?

Tuesday night against the Angels, Jeff Hoffman was brought in to stop the bleeding after Yimi García and some bad luck saddled him with a blown save and the Jays with a tied game. Instead, Hoffman turned in his worst performance of the season (to date), allowing the inherited runners plus three of his own to score and put the game out of reach. All in just nine pitches. For better or worse, that brief appearance on Tuesday meant that Hoffman was available again the next night. This time, coming in with a clean slate and a two-run lead, Hoffman loaded the bases (a walk and two singles) before recording the first out. The next batter, Jorge Soler, cleared the bases with a double and walked off the Jays and Hoffman.

A week before those two games, we named Hoffman the runner-up for the Pitcher of the Month award, and there was a case to be made that he could have won that award. Are the back-to-back blowups the sign of a trend? Is the closer's job in jeopardy? Would the Jays have been better off just re-signing Jordan Romano?

Let’s tackle those questions in reverse order. First off, no, Romano would not be a help right now. In case you haven’t followed his move to Philly, it’s been a struggle. His current bWAR (-0.7), ERA (9.45), ERA+ (45), and WHIP (1.800) all represent career worsts, which, given how his 2024 in Toronto went, is quite a feat. 

I think it’s also premature to start talking about a threat to Hoffman’s role. He wasn’t guaranteed the closer role when he was signed, but he was given the first shot at it, and before his last two appearances, he had earned seven saves behind a 1.45 FIP and 1.10 ERA. Yimi García would be the first logical name to threaten the role, but his struggles in Anaheim roughly washes out the argument. Mason Fluharty and Brendon Little have pitched well and likely earned some trust in higher leverage situations, but I don’t think they’ve entered the closer discussion yet. Nick Sandlin and Chad Green each have one save to their names and came in games when both Hoffman and García were unavailable. The Jays have been aggressive in terms of managing their bullpen personnel on the active roster. Still, I expect them to be more conservative with the ninth inning assignment, especially in save situations.

In the James Bond book, Goldfinger, Ian Fleming wrote, “Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times is enemy action.” With Hoffman’s struggles, we’re still in the coincidence phase. I looked at his relief appearances going back to 2021 to see if I could find any enemy action (or a trend). Including this season, Jeff Hoffman has made 192 appearances in regular-season relief and has given up three or more earned runs seven times (two this week).

Prior to this week, he’s followed up with improved performance in his next appearance every time. This week also marked the first time he pitched on back-to-back days after that shaky outing. I looked at his history of giving up runs when pitching on 0 days rest, and there’s a slight bump when he has at least one day rest (roughly 0.2 runs/inning), but nothing significant.

There is an inherent small sample issue with relievers, so breaking things down further yielded similar coincidental results. He’s had one other appearance in Angel Stadium (a clean inning and earned the save in 2024), he’s faced the Angels three times before that, and has never given up a run. With Alejandro Kirk or Tyler Heineman catching, his peripheral stats are pretty similar, too. The earned runs are heavily skewed, but I think we’re safe calling it a coincidence for now.