Daulton Varsho: Outfield Wizard

Daulton Varsho returned from the injured list on April 29 following offseason shoulder surgery and has been absolutely mashing the ball. He leads the team in slugging and is tied for the lead in home runs and triples. The offensive outburst is as welcome as it is surprising, but that’s not what I’m here to talk about today; Jays Centre's Jim Scott already wrote about the bat over the weekend.

Varsho won his first Gold Glove last season and led the Blue Jays to their second consecutive Gold Glove Team Award. I also think there’s an easy case to be made that he was robbed of a Gold Glove in 2023 as well, just because he shared the outfield with Kevin Kiermaier – but we’ll save that debate for another day. All of that to say, Varsho is known for his glove, so much so that he’s made some unbelievable plays look routine, and I don’t want to take that for granted.

In fact, before we get to the plays Varsho has made this season, we’re going to start with one he didn’t. Leading off the top of the second inning at Rogers Centre on May 16, Riley Greene hit a solo home run to left-centre field. It was measured at 402 feet and would have been a homer in 24 out of 30 major league stadiums. Funnily enough, the Tigers' home field (Comerica Park) would have contained this ball, and you can bet, given how far up the wall he got, Varsho would’ve made the catch there. Seriously, take a second to check that link out if you haven't already. Not only does Varsho scale the wall to a height I’ve never seen at the Rogers Centre, but he does it with his characteristic seeming effortlessness.

It was a noble and visually stunning enough effort to catch the attention of LJ Rader, who runs the ArtButMakeItSports accounts on various social media platforms. Comparing Varsho at the apex of his climb to Banksy’s Well Hung Lover seems apt in a PG-13 way that I think Daulton would appreciate.

Shifting to the catches Varsho has made, we’ll be leaning on Statcast’s star ranking system. They give each playable ball a percentage-based catch probability that accounts for opportunity time, travel distance required and direction:

• 0-25% - 5 Star 
• 26-50% - 4 Star 
• 51-75% - 3 Star  
• 76-90% - 2 Star 
• 91-95% - 1 Star 

Anything above 95% doesn’t get a star; outfielders are just expected to make those plays. A more detailed description of what goes into the classification of catches can be found here.

For an example of a ball with 95% catchability that landed for a hit, I will refer you to this play from 2022 that Jays fans certainly remember: Raimel Tapia’s inside-the-park grand slam.

Now, on to the Var-show!

1-Star Catches
Not all 1-star catches are created equal. Varsho has made four such catches so far this season. Two of them were fairly standard in appearance. He routinely gets such good jumps on contact and takes such efficient routes that he makes 1-star catches standing still and waiting for the ball to arrive.  

This home run-saving catch up against the wall surprisingly also only got one star, though based on Kevin Gausman’s reaction, I’d say this one deserves to be ranked higher:

And then we have the unicorn:

Statcast only looks at the cold, hard, measurable facts. Varsho had to travel 67 feet in 5.8 seconds to make this warning track catch. It doesn’t care that his feet got tangled on the route, or that two of those 5.8 seconds were spent in a tumble with his back to the ball, or that when he did make the catch he was on one knee, looking over his shoulder and stabbing his left arm out at an awkward angle. It certainly doesn’t care about how quick and cool his behind-the-back ball transition was. Easily the most impressive 1-star catch of the Statcast Era.

2-Star Catches
Once again, Varsho has four qualifying catches in this category – one in each direction. They’re all pretty routine-looking. Again, he gets such quick and efficient jumps on contact that he’s in position with plenty of time. We’ve got a sharp line drive that was hit 31 feet in front of him, a ball 71 feet to his left, one 83 feet to his right and one that backed him up to the warning track, 63 feet behind him.

3-Star Catches
Two entries at this level, and both come in with a 50% chance of being caught. Here we can really see the difficulty ramping up. On this catch, Varsho ranges to his right in a sprint, covering the 69 feet needed and even has to mix in a little half-slide to finish the grab in 4.2 seconds from the release of the pitch. On the other, he has to go 76 feet straight back to the wall, and his momentum sends him crashing into the padding with significant force:

4-Star Catches
Daulton Varsho hasn’t made a 4-star catch yet this season. He hasn’t missed any either, he just hasn’t had an opportunity for one. Six other Blue Jays have had 10 combined chances to make a 4-star play, but nine of them have dropped in for hits. The only successful defensive effort on one of these balls was this diving grab by Myles Straw in left field. He only had 3.1 seconds to cover the ground needed to make the play (40% catchability). Straw is a Gold Glove winner in his own right, and while his acquisition ahead of this season was not widely celebrated, he’s been better than advertised when called upon and is as easy of a defensive substitution call in late innings as maybe any player the Jays have ever had.

5-Star Catches
Varsho only has one 5-star catch this season (so far), but it's a beauty:

He covers 87 feet in the blink of an eye (4.7 seconds) and makes the catch (5% probability) at full extension with enough time and space to slide and slow his approach into the wall. 

Not to be outdone, Straw has a pair of 5% catches to his name this season. Both of Straw’s efforts saw him travel towards right-centre, covering 93 and 102 feet to make his grabs.

Of all the players with more than one Out Above Average (OAA) this season, none has a higher total catch percentage than Varsho. The Statcast rating system lends itself very well to the analytics vs. eye-test debate, but I think that anyway you slice it, the Blue Jays got a great one in Daulton Varsho.