Mike LeSage

Thanks so much! Let me tell you, they're MUCH more fun to write when we're winning!

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was spotted arriving at the Rogers Centre wearing a Toronto Maple Leafs Austin Matthews jersey pre-game. It caused a bit of a stir amongst Toronto fans - given Matthews’ history in recent games seven, it was certainly a choice. The most superstitious among us took it as a bad omen, some took it as a chance to end whatever curse had befallen the local hockey team. Vladdy though? I think he was just having fun. George Springer: One hit in the 7th inning The seventh inning of a Jays elimination game? Of course, we’re starting here. The Jays started at the bottom of the seventh, down 3-1, with just over a 20% chance of winning by WPA. Bryan Woo came out for his third inning of the game and had been cruising, retiring six of the seven batters he had faced with a pair of strikeouts. Addison Barger worked a 5-pitch walk (+6.7 WPA), and Isiah Kiner-Falefa followed that with an excuse-me-single up the middle (+10.6% WPA) to put runners at first and second with none out. Then it was Andrés Giménez coming to the plate, and despite him being tied for second in home runs this round, he was asked to lay down a sacrifice bunt and move the runners over. On a pure read of the run expectancy matrix, this is a play that increases the odds of scoring a run. Seattle was in the same situation in the second inning, and while the sac bunt was successful, they didn’t cash in any runs. In the seventh inning, when the Jays had only nine outs left in their season, the Giménez sac bunt actually lowered Toronto’s win probability. It was enough to chase Woo from the game, though, and the Mariners turned to Eduard Bazardo to face George Springer. Seattle pitchers had been working Springer inside all game, and Bazardo was no different, starting him off with a sinker well inside for ball one. Then Springer channeled some Dylan Thomas: The next pitch, another sinker, caught too much of the plate, and Springer was looking for it. He launched it into the stands (+40.7% WPA!), refusing to let the Jays go gently into the night. At the same time, he launched himself into Blue Jays history, hitting (arguably) the second-most important playoff home run this team has ever seen. Shane Bieber: 3.2 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K Bieber wasn’t at his sharpest and was maybe a bit unlucky. He hung some sliders that ended up as hits, but was fortunate not to be caught for too much damage. When the breaking balls were placed where Bieber wanted them, he generated weak contact (two grounders back to the pitcher) and whiffs (13 in the game). He surrendered a solo home run to Julio Rodríguez (-11.6 WPA) on a slider well off the plate. According to Sarah Langs of MLB.com, it was the furthest outside pitch Rodríguez had ever homered on in his career. Three of the hits he gave up missed infield gloves by inches, so his .545 BABIP points to a degree of unluckiness, but it also took him 74 pitches to go twice through the order. He left the game with Seattle up by one run, at 2-1; he kept the game within reach. Louis Varland and Seranthony Domínguez: 2.1 IP, 1 H, 1 ER Varland was called upon for the 10th time in 11 games. He came in to finish the fourth inning and closed it without issue. Then, with Cal Raleigh leading off the fifth, Varland threw him a pair of changeups, inducing swings on both. The first registered a strike, the second went 381 feet and extended the Mariners' lead to 3-1. Varland would settle in and retire the Mariners' 3-4-5 hitters to end the inning. Domínguez would come in for the sixth inning and retire the side in order, keeping the Jays close and not allowing any add-on runs for Seattle. Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 ER Game Seven means all hands on deck, and John Schneider turned to the two starters with the most innings pitched in the regular season to take the seventh and eighth. Gausman’s inning started with a walk to the #9 hitter, Victor Robles, but he could erase that by getting a GIDP from Julio Rodríguez. Then, an intentional walk to Raleigh and a half-intentional walk to Josh Naylor put two on, with two out, and again, the fanbase held their breath. A groundout from Jorge Polanco ended the threat, and the Jays, behind that Springer homer, would take the lead in the bottom half of the inning. Thanks to Springer’s timing, Gausman, who started Games One and Five, would get his first win in the relief appearance. Bassitt said after the game that he knew he was coming in for the 8th, and after Springer put the Jays on top, he locked in. A pair of groundouts and a cheeky called-third-strike curveball would give Bassitt one of his best innings of the season. 10 pitches to put the Jays three outs away from the World Series. Jeff Hoffman: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K Hoffman threw 35 pitches over two innings in Game Six the night before, and I wondered aloud if, given his efficient 8th, we might see Bassitt come back out to finish the game. The Jays didn’t sign Hoffman to be their closer to let anyone else have this moment, though. Boy oh boy, did Hoffman rise to the moment. Back-to-back-to-back strikeouts to close out the game and leave Raleigh standing in the on-deck circle while Toronto celebrated their return to the World Series. What an incredible game and an incredible finish. The best home team of the regular season gets to stay home and await the Dodgers, who will be coming here for Game One of the World Series on Friday. We’ll have lots of coverage leading up to it, but if there’s one thing we should remember, the last four times one LCS was a sweep and the other went seven games, the game seven winners would go on to win the World Series. Let the streak continue, and more history will be made. 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The Blue Jays faced their first elimination game of the playoffs, playing an almost textbook Toronto game to force another elimination game tonight. Momentum is a funny thing, isn’t it? In typical Blue Jays fashion, the contributions came from all over the roster. Let’s take a look at how the Jays forced the second Game 7 in franchise history. Trey Yesavage: 5.2 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 7 K Jesse Burrill wrote an excellent breakdown ahead of the game, dissecting how Yesavage was “built for the moment”. It wasn’t exactly the performance he put on in the ALDS, but it was what was needed. We’ve seen all series that Seattle is a free-swinging team, and Yesavage racked up seven strikeouts - including Cal Raleigh twice and the side in order (Josh Naylor, Randy Arozarena, and Eugenio Suárez) in the second inning. Yesavage gave the Mariners some chances, though. After retiring the side for the first two innings of the game, Yesavage faced the bases loaded with one out in both the third and fourth innings. Fortunately, the Jays escaped without any damage both times, thanks to perfectly fielded double plays. Raleigh hit into a 3-6-1 GIDP in the third, and J.P. Crawford went 4-6-3 in the fourth. Julio Rodríguez would end the Mariners ' at-bats in the fifth inning with another 6-4-3 double play and leave Yesavage with five shutout innings. In the sixth, after recording the first two outs, a solo home run by Naylor and a single by Arozarena would lift Yesavage from the game. All things considered, we couldn’t have asked more of the rookie. The Bullpen: 2.1 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K Louis Varland and Jeff Hoffman locked down the game. Varland came in to finish the sixth inning for Yesavage, and after giving up the bloopiest of singles (Arozarena scored from first), he struck Crawford out to end the inning. The seventh went quickly, three up, three down with a pair of pop outs and another K for good measure. Then it was Hoffman in for the eighth to face the heart of the Seattle lineup as he had done in Game Four (no time for “new looks” now). In Game Six, he got the same result - two strikeouts and a pop-out to retire the side in order. Unlike Game Four, this time Hoffman would come back out for the ninth inning. Two Ks and a pop out again (with a walk sprinkled in for spice) to close out the game and secure the win. Pitching like this really emphasized why the Jays traded for Varland at the deadline and why they signed Hoffman in the off-season. When they’re locked in, they’re nasty. Addison Barger: 2 for 4, HR, 3 RBI Barger had been scuffling this series, hitting 3-for-17 coming into this game. All three of his hits had come on the road, so he was looking for his first knock at the Rogers Centre in the series. Well, after a Daulton Varsho “double” (a single with a heads-up advance to second on a bobble by Rodríguez) and a single by Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Barger had one of the biggest hits of the game. His second-inning single to right added 12.5% win probability to the Jays' column as Varsho came around to open the scoring for the game. The next inning, after an Ernie Clement triple, Barger came to the plate and put up another 12.5% WPA hit. A 403 ft home run, the furthest hit ball of the game, gave Barger the (eventual) game-winning RBI and staked the Jays to a 4-0 lead. Barger’s 25% WPA was the most in the game, and no other batter was even close. Only Yesavage’s 20% WPA is anywhere near the discussion. What a time for Barger to break out of his slump. The Other Multi-Hitters: 6 for 14, HR, four runs scored, 12 total bases Barger had three teammates get a pair of hits each. Nathan Lukes, batting second, had a pair of singles and now has a five-game hit streak going. It was also his fourth multi-hit game of these playoffs. Clement had a double and a triple, scoring both times. It’s easy to forget that this postseason is the first taste of the playoffs for both Lukes and Clement. Both players have really taken the ‘act like you’ve been there before’ mantra and run with it. The other multi-hitter in Game Six was Vladimir Guerrero Jr., a guy who has been there before. Vladdy’s last homer put him into sole possession of the franchise record for home runs in a postseason. With his Game Six homer, he not only gave the Jays a 5-0 lead, he also moved into a tie with Joe Carter and José Bautista for the franchise’s career postseason home run lead. Wouldn’t it be nice to see him take sole possession of that one tomorrow? The Blue Jays have now won 100 games in 2025. They’ll send Shane Bieber to the mound tonight looking to get 101 and punch their ticket to the World Series. In a rematch of Game Three, the Mariners will counter with George Kirby. With everything to play for, Toronto will hope to replicate that game. The only other Game Seven for the franchise came in the ALCS in 1985 and was played at Exhibition Stadium. At that time, the Jays were unable to secure the victory, and the KC Royals moved on. In a season when Toronto brought their overall franchise record back to .500 for the first time in decades, this would be the perfect time to get that Game 7 record to .500 as well. View full article

This was a tight game that was blown open in the bottom of the eighth. We’re going to go back to looking at Win Probability Added (WPA) chronologically and highlight the plays that made for the largest swings. Bottom of the Second: Eugenio Suárez hits a solo home run (-12.2% WPA) - 1-0 Seattle The only mistake that Kevin Gausman was punished by over his almost six innings of work. Gausman produced a line of 5.2 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 4 K. He had 15 whiffs and put up an almost identical performance to what he did in Game 1 of this series. This time, he took a no-decision rather than the loss, but we can’t fault Gausman; he had a cumulative WPA of 15%. Top of the Third: Andrés Giménez hits into a double play (-11.8% WPA) - 1-0 Seattle In Games 3 and 4, the Jays came to bat in the top of the third trailing. In both games, the #8 hitter led off the third with a double and was followed by a Giménez two-run home run to erase the Seattle lead. In Game 5, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, the #8 hitter, led off with a double. Everyone watching couldn’t help but wonder if Giménez could spark the Jays three days in a row. Instead, what happened was a sharply hit line drive to the first baseman. IKF had taken a couple of steps toward third on contact and was unable to get back to his base before being doubled off. The first gut punch of the night. Top of the Fourth: Ernie Clement hits into a double play with the bases loaded (-19.7% WPA) - 1-0 Seattle The inning started out with so much promise: a double from Nathan Lukes (+8.2% WPA), an intentional walk to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+4.4% WPA) and a walk to Alejandro Kirk (+10.4% WPA) to load the bases with none out. A strikeout from Daulton Varsho (-9.2% WPA) was followed by a double play I’ve never seen before. Clement hit what could have been a chopper that would have made for an awkward attempt at a force play. Instead, the ball just died immediately in front of the plate – so close to the plate that Cal Raleigh got the force out at home just by picking the ball up. The toss to first completed the double play and ended the inning. Top of the Fifth: George Springer hits an RBI double (+15.9% WPA) - Tie game 1-1 The Jays chased starter Bryce Miller from the game and were able to capitalize against the Mariners' bullpen. Springer, who leads the playoffs in runs scored, cashed in Addison Barger to tie the game. Later in the game, Springer would take a pitch directly off of his knee and need to leave the game. Post-game, it was announced that initial X-rays were negative, but we're still waiting on his full evaluation, and whether he's available for Sunday is still to be seen. Top of the Sixth: Alejandro Kirk scores from second on a single (+16.9% WPA) - 2-1 Toronto Kirk led the inning off with a double (+9.8% WPA), and then, on a Clement single, he got the wave to go home. Maybe Dominic Canzone figured there was no way Kirk would risk a play at the plate, and then, when he realized he had to make the throw, he rushed it and sent it halfway up the third base line. Maybe it was just meant to be. Bottom of the Sixth and Bottom of the Seventh: Louis Varland (+14% WPA) - 2-1 Toronto Varland was the first man out of the ‘pen. He came into the game with a runner on first and walked the first batter he faced to put two on with two out. He would induce a grounder to end the inning. He would then retire the side in order for the seventh with two swinging strikeouts. Bottom of the Eighth: Cal Raleigh hits a solo home run (-32.3% WPA) - Tie game 2-2 The next guy out of the ‘pen was Brendon Little. The lefty forced Raleigh to turn around and bat from the right side of the plate, something he had yet to do in this series. The gamble did not pay off, and Raleigh hit the ball as high as the Space Needle with just enough carry to evade the outstretched glove of Myles Straw at the wall. Bottom of the Eighth: Eugenio Suárez hits a grand slam (-11.7% WPA) - 6-2 Seattle Little followed up the homer to Raleigh by walking Jorge Polanco (-6.5% WPA) and Josh Naylor (-9.4% WPA) and then being lifted from the game. Little faced three batters and was responsible for -48% WPA. He was replaced with Seranthony Domínguez, who promptly hit the first batter he faced (Randy Arozarena) to load the bases. Then, on a 2-2 count, mirroring the score, he gave up the grand slam. Game (all but) over. Okay, so let’s talk about the bullpen move. It’s easy to armchair manage with the power of hindsight, but the move to bring in Little was questioned during the broadcast ahead of it happening by both Dan and Buck in the booth and the crew back at Sportsnet Studios. You’ll just have to trust that I was saying the same thing at home. That should be an easy thing to believe in, because I think most people watching had the same thought. I’m hardly the biggest Jeff Hoffman booster, but seeing how effective and efficient he was against the top of Seattle's lineup yesterday, I would have been happy to see him. Domínguez and Hoffman are arguably Toronto’s 1 and 1A bullpen arms for leverage situations. Either one of them coming in to start a clean inning would have made sense. Maybe it wouldn’t have worked out, but at least we could say that John Schneider made the right call, or at least a defensible one. When asked after the game about the move, Schneider stated a desire to show the Seattle batters some new looks, noting that Raleigh had batted left all series and had already seen Hoffman once. On the face of it, that seems like maybe a legit argument. BUT! If that was part of the game plan and the way the pitchers would be deployed through the series, why would the Jays burn both Hoffman and Domínguez against the top of the Mariners' order with a six-run lead the day before? The Jays' bats had been hot the last two games, so maybe Schneider was hoping that would continue, but with a repeat of the Game 1 starters and considering the way that game went, Game 5 always felt like it would be a tight one. Now, the series moves back to Toronto with one game guaranteed and the Blue Jays hoping to force a second. Trey Yesavage will get the ball for Game 6, and the Jays will need to stay one step ahead of the Mariners if they don’t want the offseason to start on Monday. View full article

In our Game 3 recap, I saved Andrés Giménez for last. This time he’s going first. In Game 3, Giménez came to the plate in the third inning for his first plate appearance. The Jays were already trailing. With a teammate on base and none out, Giménez tied the game with one swing of the bat. Game 4, same story – the only difference this time was that Giménez’s two-run homer (+17.7 WPA) gave the Jays the lead instead of just tying the game. He would add another pair of RBI in the eighth inning to extend the Jays' lead to six runs and end the night with the highest win probability added of the game. Another guy swatting dingers on back-to-back days was Vladimir Guerrero Jr. His home run in the seventh inning mirrored his homer from the day before. The difference in Game 4 is that his long ball moved him into sole possession of the top spot for franchise homers in a single postseason. Addison Barger’s performance with the bat wasn’t what had people talking, even though his double in the sixth inning was the hardest hit ball of the game. Yet, in this game, it was his glove that made the most noise. Shifting to right field for the first time in almost a month as a result of some roster shuffling due to Anthony Santander’s unavailability, Barger made three highlight-worthy plays. He made a diving catch to his left in the bottom of the seventh to end the inning. He made another great catch ranging to his right to save extra bases in the fifth, but his best work was a quick scoop on a single by Eugenio Suárez and a cannon throw to Ernie Clement at third to catch Josh Naylor, who was trying to go first-to-third on the play. With the lead at 5-1 and the Mariners threatening (Jorge Polanco scored on the play to make it 5-2), Barger's outfield assist ended the sixth inning and stopped the momentum. John Schneider went to the bullpen four times to cover three and a third innings of relief, and the arm barn came through. Mason Fluharty, Louis Varland, Jeff Hoffman and Seranthony Domínguez combined for a line of 3.1 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB and 3 K. Fluharty was first out of the ‘pen and had the shakiest performance of the four, but that outfield assist from Barger helped save that inning from getting out of hand, and then the other three kept it moving to secure the win. Hoffman was called on for the eighth inning to face the top of Seattle's order and sandwiched a Cal Raleigh pop-out between two strikeouts to retire the side in order. That brings us to Max Scherzer. In the Game 3 recap, I said Scherzer would hope to replicate Shane Bieber’s “this is why they got him” performance, and that’s exactly what he did. Scherzer started the game a little shakily; after recording the first out, he walked the next two batters, but a double play ball got him out of the inning unscathed. In the third, it was a leadoff walk to the #9 hitter, Leo Rivas, that caused some concern. With one out and Raleigh at the plate, Scherzer turned and fired the ball to Guerrero at first, and after a video review, got the second out before striking out Raleigh to end the inning, keeping the Jays' lead at 3-1. Scherzer had five strikeouts over 5.2 innings, which moved him past Roger Clemens into fifth all-time on MLB's postseason strikeout list. Scherzer’s biggest highlight of the game wasn't even something that fully shows up in the box score. When John Schneider came out for a mound visit, Scherzer responded emphatically that he was good to continue and struck out Randy Arozarena to end the fifth inning. Schneider would say in his press conference after the game, “It was awesome. I thought he was going to kill me. It was great.” For Scherzer, it was his longest postseason outing and marked the most pitches he's thrown in a playoff start since the NLDS in 2021. He has made six other appearances since then. His five strikeouts were his most since the NLCS that same year. His Game Score of 56 was also his best since ‘21 and sixth best in his career for a game in which he earned the win. This win, most importantly, ties the series back up, turning it into a best-of-three. It also guarantees that the Jays will be coming back to Toronto for at least one more game. They go again tonight in Seattle with a pitching rematch of Game 1: Kevin Gausman vs Bryce Miller. Both teams are now two wins away from a trip to the World Series, and they’ve got three games to figure it out. View full article

When the Blue Jays announced their lineup for Game 4, there were a few shuffles from the night before. Isiah Kiner-Falefa was slotted in at second base, which shifts Ernie Clement to third, and puts Addison Barger in right field. Out of the lineup was Anthony Santander. Manager John Schneider confirmed that Santander "woke up feeling sore" but was non-commital regarding his availability off the bench as a potential late-inning pinch hitter. Ken Rosenthal and Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reported that, according to "sources," the Blue Jays had made a medical request to have Santander removed from the ALCS roster. If approved, that would make Santander ineligible for the World Series roster, should Toronto make it that far. Within an hour, the Jays had their answer. Santander's removal was approved, ending his season. Joey Loperfido has been called up to take his place and is active for tonight's game. View full rumor

Whatever your superstition or good luck charm of choice is, if you switched it up between Games 2 and 3, you helped. The Jays, for their part, left the white panel hats in Toronto and switched to the double-blues to wear with their powder blue uniforms. The switches worked, and the bats exploded for 18 hits and 13 runs, with the team getting contributions from every part of the lineup. In keeping with the theme of switching things up, for this recap, I’m going to do things a little differently, and instead of running through the game chronologically, I’m going to look at the lineup from top to bottom. Shane Bieber: 6 IP, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8 K Bieber’s first inning started with a walk, fly out, home run and ground-rule double. It was quickly 2-0 Mariners, and Seattle had a 76.4% win expectancy. Bieber would retire the next seven batters in a row, including five strikeouts – all of them swinging. Bieber had 17 swing & misses on his way to putting up a pitching line and steady performance that was the exact kind of outing the Jays needed and why Toronto made the move for him at the trade deadline. He threw 88 pitches, and none more than his slider. He was perfectly split with 44 pitches in the zone and 44 out of it. He had hitters looking uncomfortable in almost every at-bat. George Springer: 3 for 6, HR, 2 runs scored With his home run in the fourth inning, Springer moved into a tie for fourth place all-time in postseason homers. With 22 for his career (three so far this postseason), he is now tied with Bernie Williams. He’ll need seven more to tie Manny Ramírez for the all-time lead. This particular dinger made it 6-2 Jays. His home run ball was also the hardest hit by anyone in the game at 112.5 mph and traveled the furthest of any ball (measured at 431 feet). Nathan Lukes: 1-for-6, 1 run, 1 RBI Lukes would single in the third inning and score the go-ahead run on a George Kirby wild pitch to give the Jays their first lead of the game – a lead they would not relinquish. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 4-for-4, HR, 3 runs scored Vladdy’s first three ABs were a 102.8-mph single, a 104.9-mph double and a 106.4-mph HR. The fourth time, he was rewarded with an intentional walk. His fifth at-bat produced his hardest hit ball of the game: 108 mph for another double. A slight stumble out of the box likely kept him from considering going for third and chasing the cycle. With his fourth home run of the playoffs, he is now tied with José Bautista for the franchise's most in a postseason. His 16% win probability added was tied for the most of any Blue Jays batter. Anthony Santander: 0-for-2, 1 BB, 1 run scored Tony Taters was moved up to the cleanup spot to shake things up a little. He ended the game as the only Jays starter to not record a hit, but showed a remarkable amount of hustle to score from second base on an Ernie Clement single. On a play where Alejandro Kirk would be tagged out trying to go first-to-third to end the inning, Santander’s speed helped make it 7-2 Jays. He would be rewarded with the rest of the night off, as Myles Straw came in as a defensive replacement in the bottom half of the inning. Alejandro Kirk: 2-for-4, HR, 2 runs scored, 3 RBI Kirk’s three-run home run in the sixth inning didn’t do much to move the win probability needle (it was already pretty maxed out), but it did provide an exclamation point on a Jays offensive showing that proved this team is one to be reckoned with. He also scored from second on a Daulton Varsho double in the third, showing a determination to put runs on the board. Daulton Varsho: 2-for-5, 2 RBI Varsho was the only Jays starter not to score a run. His double to score Guerrero and Kirk in the third inning made the game 5-2 Jays and was the highest scoring play by WPA in the game at 17.5%. That double was also the second-hardest hit Jays ball of the night, behind only Springer’s homer, clocking in at 109.8 mph. Addison Barger: 1-for-5, HR Barger was the last of the starters to reach base in the game. Everyone else had done it by the top of the fifth inning, but Barger waited until the ninth. It was his first hit of the ALCS, and it was an emphatic moonshot. Measured at 414 feet, it was incredibly the only Blue Jays home run in the game that would have also been a homer in every other major league park. Barger was born in Washington State and had a number of family and friends in attendance to see his first career postseason home run. As he said in a post-game scrum on Sportsnet: “Homers are sick.” Ernie Clement: 2-for-5, 1 run, 1 RBI Clement led off the third inning with a double that set the stage for the offensive explosion that was to come. He followed that up with a single in the fifth inning to score Santander and extend the Jays' lead. His 1.208 OPS to this point in the playoffs trails only Paul Molitor’s 1.378 of all Jays postseason runs before this year (Vladdy’s 1.426 this postseason is the current franchise high-water mark). Not bad for the #8 hitter. Andrés Giménez: 3-for-5, HR, 2 runs scored, 2 RBI Speaking of the bottom of the order getting it done, and conveniently for my recap format, we’ve saved the best for last. Batting ninth and following that Clement double, Giménez was the second batter to the plate in the third inning. With the Jays down by two and none out in the inning, announcers Buck Martinez and Dan Shulman wondered aloud if Giménez might be asked to bunt to move the runner into scoring position. Thankfully he wasn’t. In post-game remarks, Giménez said he was just trying to make contact and move Clement over. Well, with his first career postseason home run, Giménez moved him all the way over and around and tied the game at two. He erased the Mariners' lead, and by the end of the inning, the Jays would be in front and never look back. Giménez would also go first-to-third on a Springer single in the sixth and score on an infield tapper by Lukes. This performance was the kind of one we are used to seeing from the Jays. Production up and down the lineup, with the spark coming from the guys at the bottom. They still have a hill to climb, but they’re now one win away from tying the series and will be sending Max Scherzer to the mound for Game 4. He will hope to replicate Bieber’s “this is why they got him” performance, and if he’s not as sharp as the Jays need, they now have a rested bullpen ready to go. Just like that, we’ve got a series on our hands again. View full article

In a seven-game series, they say you aren’t in trouble until you lose one at home. Well, now the Jays have dropped two at home and head to Seattle looking to: 1. Avoid the sweep. 2. Force a return to Toronto, and 3. Win the damned series. Long odds to be sure, but this Jays team has been counted out before and defied expectations. It’s not over ‘til it’s over and whatever other cliches you need to grab onto to get us through until Wednesday night. Twenty-nine teams have lost the first two games of a best-of-seven at home, and only four times have they come back to win. The Jays will look to make that five. Until then, let’s review Game 2. The umpire should never be the story of the game, and he wasn’t here, but Doug Eddings will get a mention. His questionable strike zone cost Trey Yesavage an out on leadoff batter, Randy Arozarena. Eddings had some bad calls go the Jays' way, too, so I’m not saying the fix was in, I’m just saying he’s bad at his job. Regardless, Arozarena ended up on first base after an HBP and then moved up to second after a walk to Cal Raleigh. Julio Rodríguez then took a splitter that stayed up in the zone and knocked it out of the park (-18% WPA). 3-0 Mariners before an out was recorded. Yesavage would record three strikeouts to get out of the inning, but it wasn’t the start we had hoped for. The Jays would scrap back two runs in the bottom of the frame. George Springer led things off for the home side with a double (+5.5% WPA). Then it was Nathan Lukes, back in the lineup and batting second after fouling a ball off his kneecap in the first inning yesterday. His single scored Springer (+9.2% WPA), and then he advanced to second on a throwing error. After advancing the third on a groundout by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Lukes would score on a single by Alejandro Kirk (+8.5% WPA). 3-2 Mariners. Yesavage would retire the Mariners in order in the 2nd inning, and the Jays would tie the game up on another Luke's RBI single, this time cashing Ernie Clement (+11.2% WPA). 3-3 ballgame going into the 3rd inning. Unlike Game 1, the Mariners would be the first to make a call to the bullpen with starter Logan Gilbert being replaced by Eduard Bazardo after three innings. Yesavage would get four innings before being replaced by Louis Varland. From here, the ‘pens would diverge critically. The first four Toronto pitchers out of the ‘pen would all be responsible for at least one earned run. Varland, Mason Fluharty, Braydon Fisher, and Yariel Rodríguez would be on the hook for, in order: a 3-run home run to Jorge Polanco (-28.2% WPA), an RBI single to J.P. Crawford (-2.8% WPA), a Josh Naylor two-run home run (-3.8% WPA) and then three consecutive walks to load the bases. Chris Bassitt and Eric Lauer had scoreless appearances to close out the game (Bassitt allowed one of Rodríguez’s inherited walks to score via sac fly), but by that point, it was out of reach. The Seattle bullpen, on the other hand, would use Bazardo, Carlos Vargas, and Emerson Hancock, getting two innings each and combining to throw six innings of one-hit shutout ball. Toronto earned a reputation in the New York series of working counts and getting to the opposing bullpen to do some damage, but the Mariners ‘pen is a different beast. Over the first two games, the Jays have seen six relievers over nine innings and have managed just one hit. That is the biggest thing that needs to change if they hope to bring this series back from the West Coast. Seattle took two out of three games at the Rogers Centre in the regular season. The Jays won all three games at T-Mobile Park, so we’re still well within the realm of possibility. The last time the Jays lost two games at home to start a playoff series was in 2015 against the Texas Rangers. Toronto came back to win three straight and take the series. They don’t need to win all the games at once; they just need to start with Shane Bieber’s start in Game 3 - first pitch Wednesday evening, 8:08 PM EST. View full article

I know this is the nature of the bracket, but man, these votes are getting tough!

With apologies to Nathan Lukes, the first inning of Game 1 went almost perfectly. Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman gave up a pair of singles, but a heads-up play from Addison Barger – a throw to the plate on a fielder’s choice – caught Cal Raleigh and kept the top half scoreless (+7.2% WPA). One pitch into the bottom half of the inning, and it was 1-0 Jays. George Springer hit the first postseason leadoff home run in Toronto franchise history and gave his team the lead (+10.1% WPA). Lukes followed that up with a 13-pitch AB where he fouled the 10th pitch off of his knee and went down in pain. He finished the at-bat with a walk and stayed in the game, but would later be replaced by Myles Straw after his second at-bat in the third inning. Barger also worked a walk in that opening frame, but the Jays could only manage the one run. From that point, Gausman was locked in. He sat down 16 in a row, including a five-pitch fifth inning after giving up that pair of singles in the first. One of those singles was to Seattle’s (and maybe the league’s?) MVP, Cal Raleigh. In his second AB, Gausman won the battle, getting Raleigh to strike out on a splitter. The third time through the order, it was Raleigh who won by doing what he does best, taking a splitter that Gausman probably wanted a little lower 420 feet to right-centre and tying the game (-17% WPA). Gausman issued a walk to the next batter (Julio Rodríguez) and was lifted from the game after only 76 pitches. Bryce Miller, not the typical Game 1 starter, but the necessary one after Seattle’s 15-inning conclusion to the ALDS, was equal to the task and sat down 13 in a row himself. After Springer's home run, the Jays were only able to manage one more hit to go along with three walks. They were 0-for-4 with runners in scoring position and never expanded their lead. With Gausman out of the game, the Jays turned to Brendon Little, who threw seven wild pitches in the regular season. He threw his first of the playoffs and allowed Rodríguez to move up to second base. Jorge Polanco took advantage and cashed in Rodríguez with a single to left field (-15.9% WPA). 2-1 Mariners. It was Polanco who added to Seattle's lead in the eighth as well. After Seranthony Domínguez issued a walk to Randy Arozarena, the former Tampa Bay Ray stole second and then third to put him 90 feet away. Armchair managing here, but Seranthony needed to do a better job holding Arozarena – he was halfway to third by the time Domínguez released his pitch. With the infield playing in, Polanco was able to get one through and into right field, scoring Arozarena (-6.7% WPA). 3-1 Mariners. It’s hard to say that Game 1 was a must-win in a seven-game series, but given the circumstances of the Mariners' arrival in Toronto, and with our ace going up against their back-of-the-rotation starter, it felt like one the Jays had to walk away with. Instead, they only mustered two hits, and none after the second inning. They had their last baserunner in the sixth. The bright side is that the Jays put 21 balls in play (10 of them hard hit), although they only had a .048 BABIP to show for it. They also only struck out four times (compared to the Mariners' 11), so hopefully tomorrow, some more balls in play break the Jays' way; otherwise, this might end up a shorter series than we hoped for. View full article

I love that Schneider has tried to dampen this idea by specifically saying Bo wouldn't get the Gibson treatment - but if IKF plays this round like the last one I'd take my chances with Bichette.

The Toronto Blue Jays have released their roster for the ALCS (first pitch at 8:03 PM EST tonight!), and there were a couple of changes from the team we saw in the last round. First, we say goodbye to Tommy Nance and Justin Bruihl. Nance pitched an inning and a third in the ALDS and had a team-high 13.50 ERA (4-game small sample alert) of pitchers with at least one inning pitched. Bruihl misses the one-inning cut-off by two-thirds as he retired only one of the four batters he faced, gave up a dinger, and was saddled with an ERA of 54.00 (even smaller sample size alert!). Taking their places are Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt. Bassitt ended the regular season on the IL with lower back inflammation, but was eligible to be selected for the ALDS roster. Scherzer struggled down the stretch, posting a 10.20 ERA in September (only Tyler Heineman's 67.50 was worse) to go along with a 5.34 FIP. The Jays haven't fully committed to a rotation plan this series, other than announcing Kevin Gausman as the Game 1 starter, but it is safe to assume, based on how the last round went, that Trey Yesavage and Shane Bieber get games 2 and 3. Does that give us a Scherzer Game 4 start with the shortest leash in the world and Bassitt out of the 'pen in relief? That's where my first thought would be. With all that shuffling of the pitchers, there was unfortunately no change on the hitters' side. Bo Bichette, despite running the bases yesterday, was not yet in a position to occupy a roster spot. As noted by Ben Nicholson-Smith, Bichette was still showing signs of discomfort in that knee that was injured September 6 in a collision with Yankee Austin Wells. The Jays will have to make the World Series now to guarantee Bichette another shot at playing in a Toronto uniform before hitting free agency this coming off-season. View full rumor

In the review of Game 4 we noted what a team effort that particular game was. That’s been the story of the season. This team has spoken publicly about how tight of a unit they are. When a new player joins the team or gets called up they are immediately integrated into the main squad. This team approach is reflected in the stats the players put up in the ALDS too. Eight out of 12 players that took an at bat in the series put up an above average wRC+ and all but one pitcher gave up 2 earned runs of fewer. While team awards would be easy, we’re going to drill down on a few individual performances and send some guys home with a little extra hardware. ALDS MVP: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Who else could it be but Vladdy? He homered in each of the first three games of the series and then opened the scoring with an RBI-single in the first inning of Game 4. His nine RBI were the most in the series. His nine hits and 324 wRC+ were (tied for) the most in the series. Jays fans often questioned why we would pitch to Aaron Judge in certain situations, but by the end of the series we were asking “why do they keep pitching to Vladdy?”. Brandon Glick wrote about Guerrero Jr. not just living up to the moment, but becoming it. In Game 2 when Will Warren came in to replace starter Max Fried, Guerrero Jr. found himself coming to the plate with the bases loaded. All he did with the moment was hit the first ever grand slam in Blue Jays postseason history. The Dave Stieb Playoff Debut Award: Trey Yesavage Yesavage got the ball for Game 2 and not only gave the Yankees nightmares with his splitter and 18 whiffs, but he made history too. His dominant performance in front of the home crowd (only his second ever start in Toronto) took the baton from Kevin Gausman and kept things running. His game score is behind only Stieb’s debut in Jays postseason history and I expect he’s locked himself into the Game 2 slot for the ALCS too. The Rodney Dangerfield No Respect Award: Ernie Clement Clement was a strong consideration for the last two awards. While Yesavage was making his playoff debut in his fourth major league start, Clement was making his after 434 games. He was on the taxi squad with Cleveland in 2022, but didn’t get to the main roster. When I noted that Vladdy’s nine hits and 324 wRC+ were tied for the team lead - it was Clement he was tied with. He was the only Jays hitter to not record a strike out and he also didn’t walk - he was all bat. He admitted to blacking out after hitting his first home run and then almost missed the team picture after the series was won. Clement put up an ALDS to remember. The Tarps Off, Call the Horses Award: George Springer Springer homered and scored four times in the series, but his overall performance was slightly disappointing compared to the level he’s been playing at all season. The 89 wRC+ and 25% K-rate are things we’d like to see tossed for the next series. Just like Springer tossed his shirt within seconds of the Jays securing victory. He was the first guy to go topless when Toronto secured the division in game 162 and he was the first to whip it off this round too. I haven’t seen it available anywhere as a betting option (probably because it’s a lock), but I’d bet he’s the first to shed his top at the conclusion of the ALCS too. The Sportsnet is Going to Need a 5-second Delay Award: Kevin Gausman There were a number of incredible quotes and moments captured in the aftermath of the ALDS. Guerrero Jr. and David Ortiz yelling “DAAAAAAA Yankees lose!” is the one that most will remember, but it didn’t have the curse factor needed for this award. John Schnieder’s “Start spreading the news” was instantly iconic and certainly in consideration for this award. Gausman gets the award for putting up numbers though - in six seconds he drops 3 f-bombs and an “I don’t give a s***”. He’s fired up and he’s ready to go. I can’t wait to see him start Game 1 against Seattle. View full article

Beautifully written! If they go all the way this year I wonder if Gausman has an outside shot at making the Level of Excellence. My head says no, but my heart says get him up there.