Blue Jays-Mariners ALCS Game 1: The Big Dumper Comes to Town

With apologies to Nathan Lukes, the first inning of Game 1 went almost perfectly. Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman gave up a pair of singles, but a heads-up play from Addison Barger – a throw to the plate on a fielder’s choice – caught Cal Raleigh and kept the top half scoreless (+7.2% WPA). One pitch into the bottom half of the inning, and it was 1-0 Jays. George Springer hit the first postseason leadoff home run in Toronto franchise history and gave his team the lead (+10.1% WPA). Lukes followed that up with a 13-pitch AB where he fouled the 10th pitch off of his knee and went down in pain. He finished the at-bat with a walk and stayed in the game, but would later be replaced by Myles Straw after his second at-bat in the third inning. Barger also worked a walk in that opening frame, but the Jays could only manage the one run.

From that point, Gausman was locked in. He sat down 16 in a row, including a five-pitch fifth inning after giving up that pair of singles in the first. One of those singles was to Seattle’s (and maybe the league’s?) MVP, Cal Raleigh. In his second AB, Gausman won the battle, getting Raleigh to strike out on a splitter. The third time through the order, it was Raleigh who won by doing what he does best, taking a splitter that Gausman probably wanted a little lower 420 feet to right-centre and tying the game (-17% WPA). Gausman issued a walk to the next batter (Julio Rodríguez) and was lifted from the game after only 76 pitches. 

Bryce Miller, not the typical Game 1 starter, but the necessary one after Seattle’s 15-inning conclusion to the ALDS, was equal to the task and sat down 13 in a row himself. After Springer's home run, the Jays were only able to manage one more hit to go along with three walks. They were 0-for-4 with runners in scoring position and never expanded their lead.

With Gausman out of the game, the Jays turned to Brendon Little, who threw seven wild pitches in the regular season. He threw his first of the playoffs and allowed Rodríguez to move up to second base. Jorge Polanco took advantage and cashed in Rodríguez with a single to left field (-15.9% WPA). 2-1 Mariners.

It was Polanco who added to Seattle's lead in the eighth as well. After Seranthony Domínguez issued a walk to Randy Arozarena, the former Tampa Bay Ray stole second and then third to put him 90 feet away. Armchair managing here, but Seranthony needed to do a better job holding Arozarena – he was halfway to third by the time Domínguez released his pitch. With the infield playing in, Polanco was able to get one through and into right field, scoring Arozarena (-6.7% WPA). 3-1 Mariners.

It’s hard to say that Game 1 was a must-win in a seven-game series, but given the circumstances of the Mariners' arrival in Toronto, and with our ace going up against their back-of-the-rotation starter, it felt like one the Jays had to walk away with. Instead, they only mustered two hits, and none after the second inning. They had their last baserunner in the sixth. The bright side is that the Jays put 21 balls in play (10 of them hard hit), although they only had a .048 BABIP to show for it. They also only struck out four times (compared to the Mariners' 11), so hopefully tomorrow, some more balls in play break the Jays' way; otherwise, this might end up a shorter series than we hoped for.