Blue Jays-Yankees ALDS Game One: Toronto Domination

The Blue Jays have won their first playoff game in almost a decade, and it couldn’t have been scripted any better than the way it played out. Every Jays starter had a hit, drove in a run, or scored. The pitchers were all efficient and limited the damage to just one run and six hits against a potent Yankees lineup. The game ended 10-1, but there were some big plays that swung the pendulum more than others. Using FanGraphs Win Probability Added, the biggest plays were as follows.

+10.6% WPA - Vladimir Guerrero Jr. homers in the first inning. Vladdy’s three hits yesterday doubled his career playoff total, but none were bigger than his first-inning home run to open the scoring. The face of the franchise had been struggling throughout September, but a week off and a calendar flip to October have Guerrero Jr. looking like the cornerstone we love.

+9.4% WPA - Alejandro Kirk homers in the second inning. I was going to limit this recap to the plays that generated at least a 10% swing, but I couldn’t leave this Kirk home run out. Following in Vladdy’s footsteps, we have another Jay hitting his first career postseason dinger. This home run, while early in the game and only giving the Jays a two-run lead, pushed their overall win probability over 75%

-10.1% WPA - Austin Wells singles in the sixth inning and moves Anthony Volpe to 3B. With none out in the sixth, Wells' hit put runners on the corners and the go-ahead run at the plate. It was a time for Jays fans to hold their breath a little more than usual.

+10.4% WPA - Kevin Gausman strikes out Aaron Judge. Gausman induced 12 swing and misses in yesterday's game, but the two whiffs by Judge in this at-bat, with the bases loaded and none out, were beyond huge. In post-game remarks, Gausman said he wasn’t afraid to walk Judge in this spot, because he could only hurt them for one run. For his part, Judge was clearly thinking Gausman would challenge him more and be in the zone. Instead, Gausman threw a perfect splitter, down and away, and all Judge could do was weakly wave at it.

-13.4% WPA - Kevin Gausman walks Cody Bellinger. The walk that Gausman wasn’t afraid to issue to Judge ends up going to Bellinger in the next at-bat. With the bases still loaded and just the one out, the Yankees seemed poised to do some damage. The walk brought the Jays' win expectancy down to 50.3%, a coin toss, and the lowest it had been since the first inning.

+12.1% WPA - Ben Rice pops out with the infield fly rule in effect. The last batter Gausman would face popped out and had the Jays on the verge of escaping the inning with the lead intact and the damage limited. 

+12% WPA - Louis Varland strikes out Giancarlo Stanton to end the sixth inning. Varland entered the game for the largest leverage at bat of the game and got Stanton to strike out on a 101 MPH fastball - the fastest pitch of the game. It also marked four straight at-bats with win percentage swings of over 10% and was the fifth one of the inning. As great as all the runs scored by the Jays were, this stretch of at-bats was the clear pivot point of the game, and Gausman and Varland were at their best.

The Jays would go on to add eight more runs from this point. Four in each of the seventh and eighth innings. A second home run for Kirk, Nathan Lukes with 3 RBI, 17 at bats over the two innings, and perhaps most importantly: burning through the Yankees’ bullpen.

Sticking with a win probability viewpoint, both stars, Gausman, Guerrero, and Seranthony Domínguez were responsible for 10% WPA each over the course of the game, but just edging them out is Varland at 11%. Louis Varland is the high-leverage king of Toronto. Who might we see step up for Game 2?

Blue Jays Bullpen Usage