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Captain_Obvious

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Everything posted by Captain_Obvious

  1. Captain_Obvious
    Signing Jansen to a 5 year deal now plays into flexibility. Vazquez got 30M over 3 years as a 31 year old catcher. Hedges got 5M (WTF?). Jansen at 10M-12M per year would be a bargain. Teams would trade good assets to get him at that price.
  2. Captain_Obvious
    If they don't do it now, his price will likely shoot up by mid season.
  3. Captain_Obvious
    I am being very serious. It is much easier to find an above average 1B with 3 years of control than it is to find two #3 pitchers with potential to be #2 pitchers with 4+ years of control.
  4. Captain_Obvious
    Maybe people thought I was joking/trolling in the Belt signing thread. Trade Vladdy to the Marlins for a couple of their young pitchers.
  5. Captain_Obvious
    Try again. Most recent 350 PAs.
  6. Captain_Obvious
    Jose Bautista was a career sub 100 wRC+ when he was 29. You can easily misjudge a player's ability by looking career numbers alone without considering recent trends of those numbers.
  7. Captain_Obvious
    I can't wait for Spring Training to start. Less than two months to go.
  8. Captain_Obvious
    Here is what is happening. Vladdy will be traded to Miami for Luzardo or Cabrera + one of their top prospects. The Jays will then sign Danny Jansen to a 5 year contract. Jansen being 6' 2" will start playing 1B in addition to catching.
  9. Captain_Obvious
    Vladdy getting traded to Miami?
  10. Captain_Obvious
    Seriously? You went through the effort to misspell their names, yet you used upper-case letters properly in the title? Terrible trolling.
  11. Captain_Obvious
    Yes. Now you're getting into how to beat the Pythagorean expected W-L. Teams can mostly do that by manipulating their run prevention because batting lineup is mostly fixed. A good example is having a good BP with a couple of elite BP arms probably helps as teams can more often translate their runs scored into wins when those runs matter the most.
  12. Captain_Obvious
    He is very consistent according to OOA. Other defensive metrics saw a huge drop in 2022 but I wonder if that's because of the Jays excessive shifting.
  13. Captain_Obvious
    The extreme examples are for demonstration purposes. Real expected W-L can be calculated using real numbers but these usually result in 1-3 wins difference. Now if you want to discuss impact of runs produced vs runs allowed on actual W-L records, then we need to also discuss a new topic: runs per game distribution and allocation. Here is a hint: The 23 runs difference Toronto produced in a single game vs Boston was fun and had a large impact on expected wins-loss for the season, but was mostly useless for producing actual wins.
  14. Captain_Obvious
    https://captaincalculator.com/sports/baseball/pythagorean-expectation-calculator/ You can play around with numbers here. Start with 500 runs produced and 400 runs allowed and trade 50-100 runs at a time to see meaningful changes in expected win-loss
  15. Captain_Obvious
    Yes. It is simple math. It might not always pan out like this, but overtime it works out this way. Mathematically speaking, you can start with extreme cases. A team that produced 162 runs and allowed 62 runs will likely outperform a team that produced 1000 runs and allowed 900 runs. As a a matter of fact, the former team can only lose 62 games in the worst case scenario. For actual real-life data, you can check expected W-L records in MLB standings for teams with similar run diff but different runs allowed.
  16. Captain_Obvious
    The lower the runs allowed, the bigger the return on run surplus. If two teams have a +100 run difference, the team with the least runs allowed will likely have the most wins. So, if a team with a positive run difference is presented with the opportunity to trade a certain amount of runs produced for an equal amount of runs prevented, they should always go for it.
  17. Captain_Obvious
    Good for Kirk. I did not know Terminator is a hot young chick in reality.
  18. Captain_Obvious
    Pretty good deal actually. Segura is likely to be a 2-3 WAR player over a full season.
  19. Captain_Obvious
    Why? I hope he and Varsho become all-stars.
  20. Captain_Obvious
    Yea. And this guy has the blue badge which means he is a paying customer.
  21. Captain_Obvious
    Haha. I do not use Twitter. No way I pay Musk $8. The Danny Jansen fan club is a rapidly growing movement as.evident here.
  22. Captain_Obvious
    I was scrolling through this thread and my wife thought I was looking at Christmas porn. f*** you guys.
  23. Captain_Obvious
    2/10 for batting the best Blue Jay hitter 8th. Let's not repeat last year's mistake.
  24. Captain_Obvious
    If you revert the Varsho trade and do the Jansen for Helsley Catcher: Kirk + Jansen ===> Kirk + Moreno Production change: Likely neutral in 2023 and 2024. 2025 depends on a lot of factors (Jansen extension, every catcher performance and health, etc...) BP: +1 very good BP for 2-3 years. Production change: +1 WAR for 2-3 years in the BP OF: Varsho (LF) ===> Gurriel (LF) Production change: -2 to -3 WAR for 2023. Two OF positions to fill in 2024 and beyond with little OF depth in the farm. Top potential free agent OFs are Happ, Teo, and Bader. All of them are much older and project to produce a bit worse than Varsho. I think the team is clearly better off with the Varsho trade in the short and medium term. Debatable in the long-term.
  25. Captain_Obvious
    I was talking about Jansen.
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