Captain_Obvious

I am Danny Jansen's mother.

Why the f*** are people here talking about testosterone? Wrong forum people.

Kiermaier can be a good signing based on terms. He still has a couple of 2 WAR seasons in him based on defensive ability.

I doubt the Blue Jays target Reynolds. He is not good defensively and they seem to be focusing on players who can improve run prevention.

YEA! We should have traded Vladdy, Bo, Bichette, and Kirk when they were prospects. We would not have regretted it one bit!

I don't mind Jansen+ for Nootbaar as long as the + is not significant. Stay away from O'Neill who is just awful.

He was expected to get 300M over fewer years. This might be a little more team friendly than people thought.

If Moreno is good at another position, then we should keep him.

No, they don't. Pittsburg does not need catchers.

That is a reasonable idea actually.

That is a very real possibility. But this possibility is what might make him available without trading Kirk or Moreno.

If Nootbaar was not a nothing prospect, nobody would think that Jansen could fetch him. The lack of track record adds a potential sell-high element to the Cardinals. His future outcomes have high variance, but I am a total sucker for someone who is 98 percentile in BB%.

I would be very happy for Nootbaar straight for Jansen. This is good and fair value back.

I did not say the strikeout increase was the only contributor. The quality of contact did become worse, but strikeouts were a major contributor. He went from being 71 percentile in whiff% (good) to 39 percentile in 2022 (bad). His K% went from 22.6% in 2021 to 28.6% in 2022. I expect the Blue Jays to aim higher for their main trading chip.

A player’s xBA for the season is calculated by taking the sum of all xBA from individual batted ball events. The sum is then divided by all batted ball events. After that, strikeouts are factored in which results in a season-long Expected Batting Average. https://www.fantraxhq.com/statcast-101-expected-stats/ Did you really expect SOs NOT to factor in xBA? Did you think the xBA of a player who strikes out 50% of the time to the be the same as one who strikes out at 10% if the the rest of their metrics are the same?

The main contributor to his drop in xBA is a major increase in K% in 2022. Park had little to do with his awful hitting in 2022. This is confirmed by his home and away numbers which are almost identical.

His statcast underlying numbers indicate that he is bad regardless of park. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/trent-grisham-663757?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

connorp gets it. You can get Grisham's overall production in much cheaper ways.

You do realize that you want to trade for a player who hit worse than Tapia last year. Right? No point in raging about a trade that will not happen, but hopefully we're all healthy and alive next year so that we can revisit this conversation. Terminator, I know you're really old, so you better not die on me before then.

Ooooooh .. a player who might have cracked the top 100 prospects near the very bottom six years ago. How very sexy. 89K posts in a baseball forum and you're still a f***ing joke when it comes to the sport. Back your argument with numbers or just STFU.

Grisham in 2021 and 2022: 2.2 WAR over 525 PAs on average. Both years were identical pretty much. Kiermaier in 2021 and 2022: 1.8 WAR over 305 PAs on average. Kiermaier in 2022 (his worst year of the past two): 1.1 WAR over 220 PAs Do you want to engage in an actual discussion or just pretend like you know what you're talking about when you're obviously clueless?

Terminator, you got it wrong. Jansen would be one of the most valuable assets in the game only if we extend him for 3 more years beyond his arbitration. He is currently in 95.5th percentile only.

There is no reason to trade for Grisham when you can sign Kiermaier. You don't trade a 140 wRC+ catcher for a sub 90 wRC+ decent defensive OF. One is much harder to find than the other.

That makes absolutely no sense. Grisham has sucked for the past two years over 1000+ PA. There is nothing to rebound to because he has never been good to begin with. You can find mediocre OFers like him in the minors or in free agency.

Sure. Let's do that. In 2021, Grisham produced 2.2 WAR in 527 PA while Jansen produce 1.4 WAR in 204 PA. Keep in mind that Jansen sucked ass in April of 2021 and only started producing after updating his glasses in May. Projections do not factor eyesight issues that were fixed. I do not usually cherry-pick, but in this case there is a good reason to look at performance since June 2021. Jansen: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/danny-jansen/16535/splits-tool?splitArr=&splitArrPitch=&position=B&autoPt=false&splitTeams=false&statType=player&statgroup=2&startDate=2021-06-01&endDate=2022-11-01&players=&filter=&groupBy=career&wxTemperature=&wxPressure=&wxAirDensity=&wxElevation=&wxWindSpeed=&sort=-1,1 Grisham: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/trent-grisham/18564/splits-tool?splitArr=&splitArrPitch=&position=B&autoPt=false&splitTeams=false&statType=player&statgroup=1&startDate=2021-06-01&endDate=2022-11-01&players=&filter=&groupBy=career&wxTemperature=&wxPressure=&wxAirDensity=&wxElevation=&wxWindSpeed=&sort=-1,1 MLB overall since June 2021: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=300&type=8&season=2022&month=1000&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-06-01&enddate=2022-11-10&sort=18,d