Captain_Obvious

Moreno does not have to be overrated for this trade to be good. Varsho is worth a top 10-20 prospect. I actually hope Moreno posts 5 WAR seasons for Arizona. I will still like the trade if Varsho delivers like he has in the past two years.

He is not here to carry us offensively. He is here to be average offensively while reducing our pitchers ERAs.

Two criteria to evaluate the trade: 1- Is it a fair trade? Absolutely. We paid a lot, but what did you expect for f***ing Varsho? I am going to ignore the idiots focusing on his average offensive profile while ignoring his ridiculously good defense and excellent base running. Varsho is one of the best OFs in the game and we get him for 4 prime years. I will also point and laugh at anyone missing Gurriel. Gurriel is a below average MLB player this point. There is a very good chance the trade was Varsho for Moreno initially but it was the Blue Jays who insisted that Arizona takes Gurriel and his $6M. 2- Does it improve the team? Holy f*** it is near perfect. This is a complete shift of Moreno's value from an area of strength to cover an area of weakness. Moreno was never going to put up a 4WAR-5WAR with catcher position occupied by Jansen and Kirk. So how do we squeeze that 4WAR-5WAR out of Moreno the catcher? You find someone as good who plays a position you lack depth and strength at. Gurriel was the weakest link on the team and we had no backup in the minors. This trade allows the Jays to efficiently upgrade Gurriel through Moreno and for multiple years. I originally suggested Kirk for Varsho straight up, but this is close enough. https://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/10546-Poll-Which-catcher-would-you-move-in-the-off-season?p=1655812&viewfull=1#post1655812 Love it!

I love how this board keeps finding options which at best are equal to what we already have. Let's trade assets to stay the same and maybe occupy more 40 man roster spots. Brilliant.

It is bad. Verdugo is awful defensively. Blue Jays do not need 1-2 WAR players at this point. Carlos said Houck instead of Yorke. I say Houck instead of Verdugo. Houck can start IMO. That being said, sending Jansen to the Redsox is a bad idea. He will be very good there and terrorize our team for years.

A very good argument can be made that Reynold's 6.1 WAR is a fluke. You cannot make a similar argument for Springer. I would be a lot more confident trading for Springer than for Reynolds. Also, players are more likely to recover from minor/moderate injuries than from just becoming worse at baseball.

I think Reynolds is an above average OF (Teo), not a consistent star (Springer).

You missed my point. I am all for trading Manoah for the right return actually. My point was: just because one prospect has not worked out, it does not mean who just throw other prospects in trades for merely above average/inconsistent players. If that's all we're getting, then I'd rather roll the dice on them. We did this for Manoah and Pearson and work out really well for one of them (so far).

Exactly. I have 0 regrets about not trading Pearson, just frustration that it has not worked out. We just got a bad dice roll on Pearson's outcome. We should follow the same process for Tiedemann as he is worth gambling on.

We should have traded Manoah too.

What about Manoah? Should we have traded Manoah for an OF who did not crack 3 WAR in 600+ PA last season? Reynolds produced at an all-star level two years ago. Let's not ignore the 3 other seasons, including the last one, where he was merely above average.

The outfield is fine as is. We need SPs more than we need OFs.

Do you want to borrow my user name?

I agree. Also, the Blue Jays OF situation is not really that terrible. I think they will be at least as productive as 2022.

f*** the Mets. This is getting out of hand.

Thomas being fine is far from a sure thing. You're cherry picking stats and not very useful ones at that. Tapia had 18% K rate too and better swing statcast numbers. I am not saying Thomas will surely flop or that the trade is not fair. The reason that it is fair is the risk the Blue Jays take with Thomas. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/alek-thomas-677950?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb Swing Stats: Avg Exit Velocity: 20th percentile Hard Hit %: 21th percentile Barrel %: 12th percentile Plate Discipline Stats: BB%: 14th percentile Chase Rate: 20th percentile Whiff %: 47th percentile K%: 71th percentile Expected Outcome Stats: xBA: 32th percentile xSLG: 9th percentile xwOBA: 9th percentile

I suggested the 2nd trade in a different post. I don't think it is an overpay. Thomas's statcast numbers were one of the worst in the league while Kirk's were one of the best. The Blue Jays would be trading for pure promise that may or may never materialize, and the first year for Thomas makes one wonder about his chances to succeed at the majors.

There is still room to get better for Moreno. He should probably be in the majors, but if him being in the minors for half a season means we get a much better return for one of the catchers, then so be it.

Moreno will get his chance. But if the team does not get a good trade return for one of the catchers now, having another year of control of Moreno while he works on acing the AAA test is not the worst outcome.

I do not see the point of including Ryu to dilute Jansen's return. The saved money will unlikely be used for an upgrade at this point.

All of the OFs Arizona could send back in a trade have statcast numbers that are puke inducing. Even Carroll had terrible numbers and seemed to benefit from luck (xBA 221 vs BA 260, xSLG 359 vs SLG 500!). Varsho is probably peak Kiermaier with a little bit more power and a lower avg. If Carroll and Varsho are off the table, Arizona would have to fork up significant secondary pieces if they want Kirk or Moreno, or settle for 2 years of Jansen while they are not contending.

Tapia sucks. Grichuk is worse. What made the trade really good is $5M of savings in 2023 and getting a prospect. To do that while getting the better MLB player makes the trade pure robbery for the Blue Jays.

Sell them on Tapia or the trade? The trade was f***ing good.

WTF? Isn't he a backup catcher? Every player should sign with the Mets because they will overpay.

What prevents the Jays from starting Moreno in AAA? It is not like he destroyed AAA pitching.