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max silver

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Everything posted by max silver

  1. max silver
    IKF at least has a high quality infield glove to go with the substandard bat vs Tapia whose only positive attribute was being a productive baserunner.
  2. max silver
    I just don't think you can definitively state that the complex will start churning out quality MLB players at X date in the future given the complexity and unpredictability of developing major league talent. There are just too many players that hit developmental walls at certain stages of their development on the way through the system. I'd wager that we should have some answers to these questions within a few more seasons once more prospects have a chance to spend their entire minor league career with the complex in place and in full swing.
  3. max silver
    It stands to reason the guy is most likely a somewhat better Espinal replacement. Ever since the early season hot streak ended in mid June of 2022 Espinal has been a pretty lousy player, and with the defensive dropoff last season he really has very little use on an MLB roster. It's hard to believe but Kiner Falefa has actually been a better offensive performer over the last 1.5 seasons since Espinal's bat morphed into a pool noodle. Espinal 166 GP 508 PA 77 wRC+ 0.5 FWAR Kiner Falefa 199 GP 676 PA 84 wRC+ 1.0 FWAR Kiner Falefa has produced a little better offensively and his infield defensive metrics are better as well, especially after the dramatic drop off Espinal experienced in 2023. It's still likely a small upgrade at best though and reduces money available for better players so it's a hard move to really like very much on it's own.
  4. max silver
    It seems like there are people that expected this facility to immediately start churning out fully developed prospects from the day it opened. I believe the hitting lab just opened a year ago or thereabouts so it's still relatively early in regards to how long the complex has been running at anything close to full capacity. I like the talent that has been infused into the system in the last 3 or so drafts, and having a complex such as this one can be an important tool in improving the development of the talent in the system over time. I hope that more roster players and minor league prospects eventually make the decision to train full time in Dunedin over the winter as this will allow the facility to reap the maximum rewards for the organization as a whole. Once the organization has all of the necessary technology in place in the hitting and pitching labs, as well as the systems and expertise to properly staff these labs the team can approximate something akin to offseason driveline training in house.
  5. max silver
    I haven't heard anything myself but I would guess that ship has sailed by now. I thought he was primed for a breakout season as a multi inning reliever in 2023 if he finally managed to stay healthy. He at least managed to avoid injury for an entire season but his off speed command was completely non existent and greatly limited his usefulness as a member of the bullpen. The stuff is still top notch but he needs to start controlling it if he has any chance to be anything other than a depth reliever.
  6. max silver
    Having this development complex also has a chance to maximize the developmental results of high end players in the system as well. I think having this complex has already paid dividends in allowing prospects a chance to spend some time in Dunedin in the middle of the season for a tune up. This allows pitchers to fine tune their deliveries and pitch design in the pitching lab, allows hitters to work on their swings with advanced modelling in the hitting lab and other assorted behind the scenes development that simply wasn't available to the team previously. I recall Tiedemann has spent time in Dunedin mid season on tune ups, Zulueata did something similar last season as well.
  7. max silver
    White ended the season really strong in AAA so at least there's hope he could provide some innings as a swingman next season. Ross Stripling also struggled quite a bit in his first few seasons after being acquired so hopefully White can also experience a similar resurgence next season.
  8. max silver
    If IKF was signed to be a starter at third this team is going to be in tough generating much offense from the bottom of the order. I really doubt that he's expected to be anything other than a utility type of player though but time will tell.
  9. max silver
    I don't think these moves should necessarily remove the team from signing any free agents, but worst case scenario if the team completely misses out on their preferred free agency and trade targets these guys are at least competent major league players which create a decent floor for the team.
  10. max silver
    Varsho was still acquired after the team signed Kiermaier last season so there's no reason to think he's suddenly expendable after Kiermaier was brought back. The team was perfectly happy to run both guys in the outfield last season and Varsho provides a perfect insurance policy to cover for any potential Kiermaier injuries.
  11. max silver
    I'll never understand what the Padres were thinking handing out 10 year deals to Machado and Boegarts. I'd rather the team sign for Chapman instead if they are going to expend this kind of money on a third baseman. Machado just had elbow surgery so while he should be fine moving forward that adds a potential long term health related concern to a dude that's signed into his 40's.
  12. max silver
    I also have a hard time saying the roster is improved as compared to the 2023 season. The team is likely to lose Chapman who was a well above average regular despite the extended struggles at times, and the best I think they could hope for with the available pieces at the moment is something maybe approaching an average regular. Schneider and Biggio are both seemingly poor options to man third base with any kind of regularity, and none of the Buffalo crew is tested against major league pitching or even likely ready to man the position full time at the big league level.
  13. max silver
    It bugs me that Varsho puts up 100 and 107 wRC+ values in his first two seasons as a regular but has a single tough season at 85 wRC+ while underperforming his expected stats by 10 points and now he's a bum that can't hit and never will hit. Moreno plays his first season and produces a 103 wRC+ while overperforming his own expected stats by 11 points and he's suddenly a star. The two players had really similar seasons in which each primarily produced their value with their respective gloves, and the offensive inputs were really close with a .314 xWOBA for Moreno vs a .303 xWOBA for Varsho. Some people just refuse to recognize how similar their respective value was due to the fact that Moreno still has the top prospect luster that's since worn off from Varsho.
  14. max silver
    Kiermaier posted exactly the same xWOBA as Varsho last season but you aren't whining about how bad KK is.
  15. max silver
    This offseason has been semi depressing so far. I should be used to this type of early off season from this front office as they've typically taken their time letting the market settle before making their bigger moves later on. It's still hard not to be disappointed at this juncture though as we've gone from dreaming about the likes of Ohtani, Soto and Yamamoto, but no big deal as there are still quality players like Chapman and Bellinger on the market. But then the team pivots and signs floor raising/low ceiling types like Kiermaier and IKF. Hopefully the team has some further free agency and trade moves up it's sleeve as the early moves are incredibly uninspiring to say the least.
  16. max silver
    I'm at the point where I hope Chapman can be had on a 4 or 5 year deal given how ugly the alternatives look.
  17. max silver
    The devaluing of an asset already on the team is the only reason I can find to dislike the Kiermaier reunion. I just tend to think that the team would be far stronger overall if they played Varsho in center field full time and brought in another player to be 4th outfielder vs presumably handing center field starting duties to Kiermaier.
  18. max silver
    I don't think Turner can be relied on to play even a semi regular third base at this point of his career. He played there sporadically in 2023 and his metrics look pretty awful in the short sample.
  19. max silver
    The thing I really don't care for is that assuming that Kiemaier is starting in center field vs Varsho then the team likely just lowered their potential ceiling.
  20. max silver
    I don't hate the Kiermaier signing but I'm far from a fan. This creates a roster with two guys that basically have the same strengths and weaknesses as elite center fielders who need to be shielded from tough lefties, while also reducing the potential impact of Varsho if he's forced to spend most of his time in a corner outfield spot again. I think Kiermaier is going to be in really tough to recreate last season's offensive numbers, and this is starting to make me fear that the team is largely going to run back last year's roster as a Chapman reunion is feeling more and more likely. I guess the team still needs another outfielder so perhaps a bat first type can be brought aboard and a good DH could still make for a decent offseason as well. I certainly wouldn't give the 2.4 WAR projected guy 8 years either. I also don't think he's going to receive this type of deal based on the question marks his offensive profile entails. If his market eventually forces him to settle for something more akin to a contract which aligns to the 3-4 win realistic upside he offers I'd be interested in bringing him aboard.
  21. max silver
    Based on how last season's trade deadline came and went without any offensive additions it seems like a foolish strategy to create a lineup that you know has a lot of holes in hopes of shoring it up at the trade deadline.
  22. max silver
    Why the f*** should the team fire Varsho into the sun? Please tell me you aren't actually this dumb. The guy is projected for 3 wins, has averaged 3 wins in his career when prorated to an entire season's worth of plate appearances, is inexpensive and has a lot of remaining years of control. He legitimately might be MLB's best outfield defenders, but apparently after a single down season at the plate he should be "fired into the sun". For f***s sakes stuff like this just makes you look like a complete ignoramus.
  23. max silver
    Varsho wasn't a great defender behind the plate compared to the elite outfield defence he offers. Moving him behind the plate likely reduces his outfield effectiveness and opens up greater possibility to injury as well.
  24. max silver
    I suspect this would be a sizeable backwards move for the team swapping Varsho for Kiermaier as Varsho, and this would open up a long term hole in center field given Kiermaier's advancing age and the lack of good center field prospects in the minor league system.
  25. max silver
    Fangraphs uses a mixture of UZR components and Statcast OAA converted to fielding runs for the range component for their defensive ratings.
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