max silver

Yeah the Statcast box score is the stuff of nightmares. Yimi's velocity was down 2-3 MPH on most of his offerings with a corresponding decrease of approximately 300 RPM. Maybe he'll be able to return as more of a middle relief option but it appears as though the premium fireman version of Garcia is a thing of the past.

I don't think lack of aggression is the issue. The team is 2nd worst in chasing pitches out of the strike zone this season so I think the issue is far too much aggressiveness.

Maybe but I do think Miles was showing signs of slowing down with the string of extended outings and his stuff was starting to drop off.

It's been a little boring without him around but at the same time there's been a lot less drama as well.

Even if Hoffman's xFIP isn't a true indication of his actual talent level this season the 3.19 xERA, 2.86 FIP and 2.04 SIERA all point to a reliever that should be enjoying more success than he has so far. Ultimately I believe Hoffman is a reliever that needs a little more downtime compared to rubber arm guys like Rogers and Varland who can pitch 2 out of every 3 days. I think with Hoffman the disaster outings/weeks tend to arrive when he's throwing 3 out of 4 or even 4 out of 5 days. Fingers crossed we get something close to a fully loaded version of Yimi back as that would add another high quality leverage arm and allow the club to pull back a little on the entire leverage group to avoiding burning them out.

Hoffman had an excellent xBA last season and suppressed line drive contact with a 16.5% line drive rate so the BABIP wasn't necessarily completely underserved. His primary issues were regarding the home run ball and that's not captured by BABIP anyway. I think your counterpoint is a bit of a false equivalency anyway as potentially being 50 points on the lucky side of BABIP isn't really a direct counterpoint to being punished 200 points on the bad fortune side this season.

Last night was yet another instance of Hoffman being comically unlucky on the results of batted balls in play as he gave up a single which shouldn't have occurred with proper fielding. Hoffman is only allowing a 27% fly ball rate this season so the HR/FB ratio isn't hurting him to any great degree. I fully believe the historically unlucky BABIP is going to eventually normalize we'll eventually get a better read on what Hoffman actually is this season. The underlying numbers are elite and there's no conceivable way he's going to be subjected to a .500 BABIP over a full season of play. He very well may be an elite reliever this season once his luck normalizes albeit one still prone to the occasional meltdown.

I'm hoping the stuff has returned to what he featured in his first start of the season. His stuff metrics dropped precipitously right as the forearm issue was announced .

Sanchez has handily outperformed Kyle Tucker with the bat so far this season. He's an outright disaster in the field but he's delivered a solid 135 wRC+ against right handed pitching.

I can agree that SWR needs to sufficiently command the baseball to maximize his chances of success. Having said that the worse the stuff is the more likely it becomes that even well located pitches lead to solid contact against him. I recall seeing somewhere that his arm angle had changed this season and wonder if this is something the Blue Jays are working towards addressing. I believe a key factor in whether he can turn his season around will be commanding the splitter more effectively. I believe that can potentially be an out pitch for him if he can avoid the number of apparent mistakes shown in the heat maps.

It's a little early to make any declarations about SWR. He had something like a 10+ day break in between outings and he'll need to prove that he can continue to show improved stuff with more frequent usage.

I wasn't expecting a win coming in but I thought Okamoto's deep drive was going to leave the park to tie the game up.

The Jays are all of half a game out of a wildcard slot and have ton of injured players returning soon.

You were only off by 440 feet.

If he displays the kind of stuff he possessed after the forearm started barking at him he'll be lucky to get out of the first inning a good chunk of the time.

Cook has one of the wider ranges of potential incomes I can recall in recent memory. Of course he could flame out completely but there are several pathways to reaching MLB. He's already reportedly a plus plus center field defender with 80 grade speed and he's made strides with his baserunning. It's a pretty low offensive bar that he'll be required to reach to at least earn a cup of coffee as a 5th outfielder/pinch runner type of player. If he reverts to the slap hitting style he employed in college this could open the door to more of a 4th outfielder role potentially in a platoon if this clicks and perhaps even a low end starter's role, and if the new approach clicks to any degree the guy has various degrees of star potential.

It's wild how this has continued to be the case this season despite the relative offensive struggles.

The team's goal is to convert Cook into something more than a slap hitting CF defense demon. If the more athletic swing doesn't eventually take the team can place him of the developmental list to allow him to revert back to the slap hitting approach at the PDC.

Ernie had a post season for the ages. It's a damn shame that ball didn't carry a little bit more off of the bat. He's off to a damn good start with the bat this season as well as appearing to be coming out of the defensive slump. He made a few tremendous plays in the latest victory and hopefully he's gotten the miscues out of his system.

I still maintain the mistake was allowing Hoffman to continue to implode despite it being painfully obvious that he didn't have it that day. This is largely an effect of having an injury riddled rotation and bullpen as the "best" remaining arm was a scrap heap pickup. Hopefully once the team has a full rotation the bullpen won't be so dramatically overused and if/when Yimi returns this will add another important leverage arm into the pen. Even having Nance back would be a bit of a boon compared to some of the castoff types that are being thrown out of the pen at the moment, and if Hoffman or another reliever doesn't have their stuff on a given day the last man up won't end up being a waiver wire type.

I think if Valenzuela even ends up as something close to a league average bat that's a really positive occurrence especially when you consider what the front office gave up to receive him. He never did anything close to this in his minor league career and as such the projection systems aren't buying what he has to offer yet as they are still in the 80 wRC+ range.

I'm under no illusion that Valenzuela will be this locked in at the plate forever but the longer he sustains this current hot streak the more this starts to feel like a legitimate breakout vs simply being a hot streak. He completely flipped the switch since dropping the leg kick and it's like he's unlocked a new offensive ceiling. Sooner or later his timing will start to slip a bit and opposing pitchers will start to key on his weaknesses but the way Valenzuela has gone about producing doesn't feel like a fluke. He's producing tremendous plate appearances for anyone let alone a rookie as he's avoiding the chase unlike the rest of his teammates, hunting mistake pitches that he can hammer, fouling off a ton of pitches to stay alive and taking his walks when presented to him.

I don't tend to agree. I fully support Varland entering games before the 9th in higher leverage situations when warranted. This 9th inning only "closer" mindset is exactly what led to Zack Britton being left to rot in the bullpen in a win or go home wild card game.

Protection for Vlad isn't going to matter one iota until he stops chasing pitches that he has no chance to do damage with.

Ultimately I think there's a ton of value in possessing two starter quality catchers even if it doesn't necessarily maximize the strength of the roster. I think the injury insurance aspect shouldn't be ignored as if either catcher hits the injured list the other player would simply take over starting duties. Kirk has made plenty of injured list appearances in his career and if this were to occur with Valenzuela being traded away you are left with a backup starting and a depth player as backup. I think that with Kirk possessing the type of heavyset physique he features he's likely better served starting something like 4 times per week in order to keep him fresh and healthy, and the team tends to pinch run for him later in games. With a starter quality backup you can substitute for Kirk and hardly miss a beat and if either player is a little beat up and needs a day or two off you can be confident in the backup to keep the ball rolling. It could also prove to be difficult to receive appropriate trade value in return. I recall it was mentioned that the Blue Jays tended to value their 3 starter quality backstops more than opposing general managers back when Jansen and Moreno were part of the 3 headed monster, and with Valenzuela being more of a breakout player with less history of performance it's impossible to know what the trade offers would look like. Opposing teams already undervalued what Kirk brings in the past and this could certainly be the case yet again.