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max silver

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Everything posted by max silver

  1. It's actually a 447 plate appearance sample as DH as a Blue Jay so the sample size is a lot bigger than you are implying.
  2. It feels like you are maybe placing a little too much emphasis on a single season for Vlad as a first base defender. He had improved to the point where he was about -4OAA per season at first base in 2021/2022 and managed to post positive DRS values in both of those seasons. 2023 aside Hoskins really hasn't been any better than Vlad and his defensive metrics are arguably worse than Vlad's. Vlad's defensive metrics cratered in 2023 and I can't help but suspect that he was dealing with some sort of physical issue (aside from the low hanging fruit fatness explanation) that was affecting his mobility. He missed time for a few separate stints due to some knee issues so it's possible this had an effect on his defense. Hopefully with an effective offseason to slim down he can avoid the knee issues while improving his mobility around the base.
  3. That's part of why I like the idea of Hoskins, although it wouldn't be wise to play him too frequently in the field coming off of knee surgery. He could certainly split time with Vlad however as 2023 aside each of them have typically posted similar defensive metrics.
  4. I do like the idea of running Schneider as a potential 2B/LF Merrifield replacement but it remains to be seen if it's going to be a defensive side show when he plays the outfield with any regularity.
  5. That might be an eventuality in his later years to become more of a full time DH but he has to prove he can produce in that spot first. The team doesn't have a lot of dudes who could successfully hit out of the DH spot the last few seasons. Teoscar seemed to have quite a bit of success (122 wRC+) but he has moved on, so that leaves Vlad (130 wRC+) as the only guy with any amount of plate appearances who has proven the ability to produce out of the DH spot.
  6. I think Garcia offers fair value for his salary as basically a 1 win reliever the last few seasons so moving him out likely makes the pen noticeably worse. Maybe Barger can take over for Biggio mid season if he proves he's ready but that's a bit of a gamble.
  7. Only issue with this is that Springer hasn't hit much at the DH spot during his time as a Blue Jay. He's managed a 98 wRC+ at DH vs 131 wRC+ in the field so even using someone like Horwitz against right handed pitching would likely garner better results.
  8. We shall see how it all plays out. If Chapman is added that makes someone like Espinal largely redundant so that frees up a tiny bit of cash for instance.
  9. More depth options would be nice but I don't know if the club would want to necessarily block Manoah in AAA either. Yariel Rodriguez is still out there and the team apparently liked him as a multi inning reliever/swing man type so that would be nice insurance against the scenario where Manoah continues to struggle.
  10. We really don't have any way to definitively know what type of budget remains. If Chapman ends up signing for $20 million and a DH for $10 million that doesn't sound like it's out of the realm of possibility by any means.
  11. Yeah I think each offers similar offensive upside with the bat except Teo has been more consistent and can actually play the outfield regularly.
  12. I'd kind of prefer Joc here as he would have a lot more opportunities to enjoy the platoon advantage vs Soler. The Jays have plenty of right handed options on the roster to deploy against left handed pitching in the DH slot (Vlad, Kirk, Springer, Schneider etc.).
  13. I like the idea of bringing Chapman back a lot for a deal of around $100 million or a touch less. Add one of the good DH bats on top of that and it's a decent enough off season given the lack of good bats in free agency.
  14. I think the game 2 tomfoolery was largely a function of the team not trusting it's offense to be able to win a game on it's own with more traditional strategy and wouldn't have happened if the offense wasn't so anemic throughout the season. If there are limited dollars available I'd like to see more bats added, but if something like Chapman/Bellinger and a DH bat doesn't fit the budget then I'd be cool with a DH bat and bullpen reinforcements.
  15. Then the team is basically s*** out of luck.
  16. The question is whether Espinal can actually provide above average offense in any split at this point of his career. He stopped hitting completely against both splits at about the halfway point of 2022, and since the start of July of 2022 he's produced a 79 wRC+ against left handed pitching. He has actually been more effective against right handed pitchers in this time to the tune of 86 wRC+ so he hasn't even been an effective platoon bat during this time.
  17. Yeah seems like a split personality kind of thing except both personalities are essentially the same.
  18. I do not want to see him get 300+ at-bats next season and I’m terrified he will. They should do that then because IKF, Espinal, and Biggio all on the same roster sounds awful. I have absolutely no confidence we’re gonna get reliable production out of 2B and 3B. And LF and DH also remain a question mark. If Espinal is non tendered that likely means IKF gets more at bats in his place. Is that really what you want?
  19. I should have been more specific in that deferrals applying to the luxury tax need to have limits if they are even allowed in the first place. I have zero concerns if a player is willing to defer money 100 years into the future but there needs to be limits of how this is applied to the luxury tax calculation.
  20. I have a really hard time envisioning anyone handing out a Springer contract to Chapman given the boom/bust offensive profile. Although Boras seems to have a way to convince dumb owners to hand out mega deals while completely sidestepping their front offices so who knows.
  21. I don't think anyone really foresaw the possibility of a player agreeing to defer nearly their entire salary ten years into the future. Baseball never had a player making $40 million a season on endorsements alone but there certainly needs to be some sort of limits on deferrals in the future.
  22. Teo had a really good defensive season and has generally rated as slightly below average defensively in a corner outfield spot so he should be just fine playing nearly every day.
  23. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Kirk finally got so big around the middle that it started affecting his ability to swing the bat effectively. His biggest issue is that he stopped squaring up the baseball with any type of regularity but he did show signs second half that he was starting to produce more solid contact.
  24. By dramatically lowering their 2023 luxury tax hit by deferring a huge chunk of the salary to future years. From what I can gather this includes Ohtani, Betts, and now Hernandez as players who have accepted deferred payments instead of present day salary. How much is this lowering the Dodger's 2023 luxury tax hit as a result? I get that the "present value" of these deals is less but it just doesn't sit with me well that the total value of these deals isn't simply averaged out over the length of the actual contract for luxury tax purposes. This is allowing the Dodgers to essentially assemble a super team and not be hit with the appropriate luxury tax penalties as a direct result.
  25. And of course a large portion of his deal is deferred. MLB needs to get a handle on this in the next CBA as the Dodgers are making a complete mockery of the luxury tax.
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