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max silver

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Everything posted by max silver

  1. max silver
    The Blue Jays haven't publicly linked themselves to anyone. It's not like Atkins or Shapiro have been holding press conferences discussing their free agency targets or something.
  2. max silver
    This is rich even coming from you. How in the world do you come to that conclusion? The guy just deferred nearly his entire salary so that his team could surround him with more talent. It's hard to be much more selfless than that.
  3. max silver
    Yeah I have nothing but respect for the smaller market teams that actually spend some money and try to put a winning team on the field.
  4. max silver
    In his defense it seems like he's been locked away for the last 5 or 6 years so he's a little out of touch.
  5. max silver
    This is so good for baseball for the Dodgers to potentially add Ohtani, Glasnow and Yamamoto in one offseason.
  6. max silver
    Thanks as always for sharing these, doing god's work as usual.
  7. max silver
    I kind of prefer Martinez as it's a little easier to know what to expect from him vs Hoskins who is coming off of major surgery. Hoskins definitely has some benefits as he's much younger and has a little defensive utility as he can play first base. The early projections are better for Hoskins as well. If the team signed Bellinger as well as Hoskins then Bellinger likely wouldn't see much time at first base but that would be fine as he can offer more defensive value in the outfield.
  8. max silver
    He's most likely a 3-3.5 win pitcher moving forward and has discounting his rookie and covid shortened season has only averaged about 125 innings per season for his career. He's going to be in really tough to provide value commensurate with the contract he's likely to receive.
  9. max silver
    Spanky posted some BA scouting reports on the international free agents and Imanaga was portrayed as a back of the rotation starter/bulk guy. It's pretty hard to get very excited about this guy given the low likely upside.
  10. max silver
    Vlad displayed better plate discipline when he was younger so it's not like he has never shown the ability to be more patient at the plate. It looks like he tends to get frustrated when borderline calls don't go his way and comes completely out of his approach and starts hacking at everything in these instances.
  11. max silver
    The free agent lists seem to be projecting 2 years for Martinez. More than that is asking for trouble for sure.
  12. max silver
    ctrl c ctrl v?
  13. max silver
    Perhaps Vlad's bat to ball skills are a bit of a weakness when he's chasing out of the strike zone too much.
  14. max silver
    I don't have actual data to back this up but I think that Martinez most likely improved his swing velocity/bat speed in order to generate extra exit velocity. As Vlad already produces top of the charts exit velo's the last thing he needs to do is swing the bat harder than he already does. Key for him would be laying off the damn sliders off off the outside corner of the plate.
  15. max silver
    Turner is being projected at this point to lose only 9 points by wRC+ vs Martinez who is projected to lose 28 points despite being nearly 3 years younger. The projections must be heavily influenced by the sharp increase in strikeouts. I recall reading some analysis recently that suggested it may be actually be beneficial for players to maximize their quality of contact and sacrificing balls in play a bit given the better results on batted balls this would produce vs simply slapping the ball into play. There would obviously be a tipping point where the overall numbers would really suffer past a certain point in strikeout rate.
  16. max silver
    I would really like if we had readily available bat speed numbers so we could track bat speed declines over time. I believe that this is tracked by Statcast but not available to the general public. Chris Black has referenced these numbers in several of his offseason Twitter/X posts. I fully agree it's really unlikely to expect Martinez to be better than Belt was in 2023, however I think Martinez is the far more likely of the two to repeat his success. Belt seemed to be rather fortunate with batted ball luck last season as he outperformed his xWOBA by 32 points as compared to Martinez who was within a single point of his expected stats.
  17. max silver
    It seems pretty likely that Martinez sold out for power over contact as he posted the highest exit velocity and hard hit rates of his entire career. It's hard to argue that a .301 ISO doesn't make the increased k rate absolutely worthwhile.
  18. max silver
    I can fully agree if the Angels were willing to eat salary this is a move I would at least consider. Having said that I have flashbacks of the eventual Tulo breakdown where he was constantly injured and ineffective to the point that the team paid him to go away. It feels like this very well may be the eventual outcome with Trout as well where the injuries simply force him to hang up his cleats for good.
  19. max silver
    I don't think anyone would refute that Trout is still a great player when he's on the field, but unfortunately that's becoming less and less common. Trout has only averaged 79 games the last three seasons. In the last 3 seasons Trout has missed time due to soft tissue injuries to his calf, groin and back and on top of that he has a chronic back condition. Although his expected stats were solid he produced the worst season of his career since he was a rookie, and he's going to be paid $35.5 million for another 7 seasons. Acquiring him for free would essentially be like handing him a $248 million contract in free agency. Is this something you would actually want to do?
  20. max silver
    Unless some of the money is deferred it seems this has zero effect on the luxury tax payout which is the more pressing concern vs just the dollar output.
  21. max silver
    As far as I can tell you didn't even have one which lines up perfectly with the rest of your posting history. Just angry diatribe after angry diatribe with no substance. That and a drama queen board "exit" which you unfortunately reneged on.
  22. max silver
    What point were you even trying to make? There was no downside to Atkins attempting to lure Ohtani to the Jays. If they succeeded then there is the obvious benefit of adding one of MLB's best players to the team's roster. If he missed as was obviously the case, the Dodgers had to pay a higher price due to the added competition, and Atkins simply pivots to the other targets in the meantime. MLB essentially ground to a halt waiting for Ohtani to pick his new team, so there was literally nothing lost in attempting to sign Ohtani other than some fans ultimately being disappointed that he chose a different team which was almost the most realistic scenario in the first place.
  23. max silver
    I think any team that is actually interested in trading for Trout can have him for essentially nothing in return unless the Angels are willing to eat most of his remaining contract. His ZiPS projections are pretty ugly compared to what he's going to be paid. Under a realistic scenario with likely time lost due to injury baked in Trout is only projected to provide about $127 million of total value of his remaining $248 million. In a best case scenario where his injury history is removed from the projections completely his projections improve a lot, but still underwater with Trout projected to provide $206 million worth of value. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mike-trout-is-probably-staying-in-anaheim/
  24. max silver
    That's why I can still convince myself Bellinger would likely be worth it. Absolutely worst case scenario the team can pay part of his salary in trade if they decide to move him out and undertake a rebuild.
  25. max silver
    It's actually even better as the team wouldn't even get the first year of the deal where he was most likely to be at his best. I shudder to think of how ugly it could in a few years to potentially be paying Yelich and Springer $50 million for something like 2 wins between the two of them
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