max silver

This offseason has been semi depressing so far. I should be used to this type of early off season from this front office as they've typically taken their time letting the market settle before making their bigger moves later on. It's still hard not to be disappointed at this juncture though as we've gone from dreaming about the likes of Ohtani, Soto and Yamamoto, but no big deal as there are still quality players like Chapman and Bellinger on the market. But then the team pivots and signs floor raising/low ceiling types like Kiermaier and IKF. Hopefully the team has some further free agency and trade moves up it's sleeve as the early moves are incredibly uninspiring to say the least.

I'm at the point where I hope Chapman can be had on a 4 or 5 year deal given how ugly the alternatives look.

The devaluing of an asset already on the team is the only reason I can find to dislike the Kiermaier reunion. I just tend to think that the team would be far stronger overall if they played Varsho in center field full time and brought in another player to be 4th outfielder vs presumably handing center field starting duties to Kiermaier.

I don't think Turner can be relied on to play even a semi regular third base at this point of his career. He played there sporadically in 2023 and his metrics look pretty awful in the short sample.

The thing I really don't care for is that assuming that Kiemaier is starting in center field vs Varsho then the team likely just lowered their potential ceiling.

I don't hate the Kiermaier signing but I'm far from a fan. This creates a roster with two guys that basically have the same strengths and weaknesses as elite center fielders who need to be shielded from tough lefties, while also reducing the potential impact of Varsho if he's forced to spend most of his time in a corner outfield spot again. I think Kiermaier is going to be in really tough to recreate last season's offensive numbers, and this is starting to make me fear that the team is largely going to run back last year's roster as a Chapman reunion is feeling more and more likely. I guess the team still needs another outfielder so perhaps a bat first type can be brought aboard and a good DH could still make for a decent offseason as well. I certainly wouldn't give the 2.4 WAR projected guy 8 years either. I also don't think he's going to receive this type of deal based on the question marks his offensive profile entails. If his market eventually forces him to settle for something more akin to a contract which aligns to the 3-4 win realistic upside he offers I'd be interested in bringing him aboard.

Based on how last season's trade deadline came and went without any offensive additions it seems like a foolish strategy to create a lineup that you know has a lot of holes in hopes of shoring it up at the trade deadline.

Why the f*** should the team fire Varsho into the sun? Please tell me you aren't actually this dumb. The guy is projected for 3 wins, has averaged 3 wins in his career when prorated to an entire season's worth of plate appearances, is inexpensive and has a lot of remaining years of control. He legitimately might be MLB's best outfield defenders, but apparently after a single down season at the plate he should be "fired into the sun". For f***s sakes stuff like this just makes you look like a complete ignoramus.

Varsho wasn't a great defender behind the plate compared to the elite outfield defence he offers. Moving him behind the plate likely reduces his outfield effectiveness and opens up greater possibility to injury as well.

I suspect this would be a sizeable backwards move for the team swapping Varsho for Kiermaier as Varsho, and this would open up a long term hole in center field given Kiermaier's advancing age and the lack of good center field prospects in the minor league system.

Fangraphs uses a mixture of UZR components and Statcast OAA converted to fielding runs for the range component for their defensive ratings.

I think the smart move would be to allow Kiermaier to sign with a different team. He had a season which largely mirrored that of Matt Chapman in that he produced a hot streak early on in the season where he produced the bulk of his value and cooled off dramatically the rest of the way. The early season hot streak saw him sitting at a 149 wRC+ after his first 129 plate appearances. This was built on a house of cards as it included a .389 BABIP despite producing nearly 55% ground balls and only a 16.5% line drive rate. His numbers for the rest of year predictably cratered after his BABIP normalized to .289 with a 84 wRC+ the rest of the way over his final 270 plate appearances.

Ah I see you are utilizing Baseball Reference which is basically the annoying little sister of baseball statistical sites. The Blue Jays were able to sign a pair of two win players so obviously there's no need to acquire 4 win players. I don't know if there is a team in baseball that is willing to sign Bellinger for that kind of money. Unless Boras can convince the Angels or Rockies owners to foolishly waste their money on costly free agent additions for their lousy teams. I'm far from an expert on the topic but I think Bellinger is a pretty good looking dude too so the female fans needn't be too upset if he were signed instead of Kiermaier.

Yeah the Blue Jays obviously had no room for Bellinger's bat on last year's squad and Bellinger out WAR'ing everyone else on the team would have made Bo and Chapman jealous so that would have been bad for team dynamics. The best way to measure a baseball player's relative performance is dollars per WAR only so the fact that Bellinger basically doubled Kiermaier's WAR output for a really similar dollar per WAR basis is completely irrelevant.

I think the Jays with Bellinger vs Kiermaier would receive more than a single win bump. Re-signing Kiermaier means that Varsho isn't spending full time in center field, and I think this alone costs the team another win at minimum, and potentially as many as 2 full wins given Varsho's relative value in center field defensively vs playing the bulk of his innings in left field again. It would be a tremendous waste of a guy who is potentially MLB's best outfield defender to have him spend another season in a corner outfield spot. Kiermaier has a 1.1 win projection vs the 2.4 win projection for Bellinger, but unlike Kiermaier who's projection seems very reasonable I think Bellinger has a very good shot to beat his projection. He provided value commensurate to a 5 win player when you prorate his time to a full season of play. It seems unlikely he will be able to completely recreate the success on the field, but let's say he beats his projection to a very reasonable degree and produces a 3 win season compared to the single win season for Kiermaier. Now the split from Bellinger vs Kiermaier is suddenly 2 wins. Add that to the 1-2 wins from playing Varsho in center field for a full season and the team receives a 2 win increase in wins on the lower end, with a really easy path to enjoy a 4 win or more increase in wins between the two players if Varsho continues to be a 4 win center fielder as he has been in his career up to this point and if Bellinger maintains even a modest increase in his offensive gains as compared to the modest projection.

Casuals would absolutely hate Adames as he doesn't hit for a high enough batting average. He's basically the short stop version of Varsho.

I never once suggested signing Bellinger at any cost. If the term and AAV comes down to something more commensurate with the risky offensive profile I think he's worth a bit of risk, otherwise the club should simply move on. I think Bellinger at something like a Springer contract is worth a gamble given the potential upside he offers.

The lack of cost controlled talent on the roster is the key factor that may lead to this current window closing. It's simply not sustainable long term to keep handing out $20 million AAV free agent contracts every single off season if there isn't a pipeline of cheap talent to replace more expensive veteran players who depart.

It's not just Vlad and Bo that might be gone after 2025 as Bassitt's contract will expire. Move a year further into the future and Gausman's deal expires and Berrios can opt out as well. The team may be losing 3/5 of it's rotation within the next 3 seasons and it's far from a given they will be able to replace someone like Gausman on such a team friendly contract in the future.

I'd be cool with either. I think Bader is a better defender but he can't stay on the field due to the rash of injuries, vs Taylor who has been a little steadier offensive contributor over recent seasons.

Bader's splits are incredibly variable over recent seasons so it's impossible to know what to expect. Vs Left Handed Pitching 2023 153 wRC+ 2022 66 wRC+ 2021 101 wRC+ 2020 223 wRC+

Come on man even you know Taylor would be the 4th outfielder or weak side platoon partner/4th outfielder at best.

For what it's worth Arenado and Altuve employed produced less extreme batted profiles earlier in their careers. None of these guys are perfect comparisons, but I simply used them to outline that there are a collection of dudes in MLB who have displayed the ability to pretty regularly outproduce their expected stats despite uninspiring quality of contact metrics. Instead looking at career BABIP levels I suspect it would be more instructive to look the types of xBA/BA splits that the aforementioned players tended to enjoy in the seasons where they greatly outperformed their expected stats to a great degree as I suspect this would look rather similar to the type of split that Bellinger produced in 2023. I'm most likely just looking for potential silver linings/bits of hope that Bellinger might have a chance to replicate his 2023 success in his good seasons in the future. I don't think it's completely impossible he enjoys similar seasons in the future, but I certainly wouldn't expect this to occur with any kind of regularity. I don't think there are any front offices both looking to spend a huge chunk of money and dumb enough to hand out something approaching $200 million for Bellinger's services so the contract demands should eventually come down to something more reasonable given the question marks in his offensive profile.

I just tend to think with where the club finds itself in the competitive cycle and need for potential impact Bellinger is a worthwhile gamble up to a point. He's the ultimate high risk high reward player but I'm kind of at the point where I'd like the team to take the shot if they can get the contract terms down to a mutually agreeable level. Baseball contains a collection of good hit tool+high contact/low strikeout guys with lower exit velocities who have the ability to regularly park balls in the seats despite the uninspiring quality of contact. This includes players like Boegarts, Altuve, Arenado and even Jose Ramirez who have all experienced a pile of seasons where there is a massive gulf of 30 to 40 points or more between their WOBA and xWOBA levels. Bellinger just experienced one such season and given the similarities between his 2023 and the seasons that the previously mentioned group has often experienced this could be the type of result he's able to produce in a good season. I have a theory that there is a group of players who are outliers in terms of being able to regularly beat their expected stats by a large degree in a similar fashion to pitchers who are FIP beaters year over year. It's too early to tell if Bellinger could be one of these guys after a single season of running this type of profile though.

Hey what can I say, I'm a bit of an optimist.