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Paredes produced a .314 xwOBA last season. He produced 31 home runs vs the 24 expected home runs based on quality of contact. I'd sure as hell not offer Tiedemann for a player that relies on wall scraper home runs to produce the bulk of his offensive value.

I think the Machado deal is simply going to prove to be unmovable. From what I can gather the yearly luxury tax outlay for Machado is not going to improve for other teams if there is cash included in the deal. Machado is still going to be taking up $32 million on the luxury tax ledger until he's in his 40's.

The team would still need another outfielder to replace Springer in this scenario.

Depth starter with options.

I just don't see the wisdom in expending serious cash to upgrade a strength when the team has so many offensive holes which need to be filled.

Just think of how bright the future could be if Vlad eventually earns himself an extension and Machado is acquired through trade. The team could be paying something like $65-70 million combined for a couple of out of shape lazy DH types.

The Jays poor baserunning was certainly an issue in 2023 but it's far from being a primary issue behind lack of run scoring. The 2022 team still scored the 4th most runs in MLB with a 25th ranked baserunning value of -10.5 BsR. The 2023 team was a little bit worse on the bases at 27th place/-12.4 BsR. Lack of extra base hits with runners on base and poor situation hitting were far more pressing issues in need of correcting.

Could have fooled me.

Is this a case where Tiedemann *can't* go 5 innings in AAA, or is this more of a case of the organization being ultra cautious with the build up of their prized pitching prospect to avoid reinjury?

We shall see if Tiedemann proves to be an oft injured pitcher in the future or if the 2023 issues will be largely put behind him. It just seems a little premature to immediately conclude that he should be opening games moving forward based on a single season where he experienced some bicep/shoulder issues.

I recall 100 innings as a multi inning reliever was the stated goal for Pearson in 2023 during last year's offseason. He eventually only reached about 60 innings total though.

2 or more is fine and dandy but that's only an average major league regular. This comparison would be more useful if it were more granular with number of players projected above 3 WAR, 4 WAR etc.

That's just incredibly pessimistic thinking. Tiedemann is going to continue being developed as a starter until he proves that he can't handle the position. Pearson has only avoided missing major time due to injury in only 2 of his 6 professional seasons up to this point. Perhaps Tiedemann eventually will prove to be injury prone in a similar fashion but it's far from a given at this point of his career.

Belt was largely shielded from opposition left handers being deployed against him by the largely right handed makeup of the top of the Jays order. Unless there is another major acquisition of a quality left handed bat on top of a potential Pederson acquisition then this will continue to be the case. Belt faced left handed pitching in approximately 18% of his plate appearances compared to about 12% for guys like Vlad and Bo. Pederson was actually a fair bit better than Belt's 2023 as recently as 2022. Belt was actually quite a bit worse than Pederson against left handed pitching last season and struggled to a similar degree in 2022 as well so Pederson's splits won't be of any more concern than they were for Belt. The team has plenty of right handed players already on the roster that can spend time at DH to platoon with Pederson such as Vlad, Kirk, Jansen, Springer and Schneider. My only real issue with Pederson is how it skews the outfield as being overly left handed and there isn't really a good right handed outfielder on the roster to face tough righties in place of the likes of Kiermaier, Varsho and Pederson if he were acquired. The team largely employed Merrifield in that role with semi decent results, hopefully the plan isn't to use IKF in this type of role as well.

I actually liked the team's depth starters heading into the 2023 season but unfortunately most of the depth options ended up suffering injury. That's at least preferable to having the rotation members suffer from injury all things considered. As mentioned the depth heading into the season doesn't look too bad, but there is a lot of variability in this group and more depth options is never a bad thing. To my eyes the depth options at present look like White, Francis, Tiedemann and Chad Dallas at this point with fringe roster players like Parsons also set to return if I recall correctly.

The team had a crazy home/away split where they were clutch and very good overall on the road but decidedly unclutch and low scoring at home. The run differential on the road was somewhere in the 60-70 range but essentially even at home.

Belt was extremely fortunate in 2023. His results were better than Pederson's but the underlying numbers paint a completely different story. Pederson seems like a smart bet for a bounceback season. Belt rarely faced left handed pitching due to the extreme right handed makeup of the hitters surrounding him in the lineup the same could be expected for Pederson. Pederson 2022 .373 wOBA .367 xwOBA Pederson 2023 .331 wOBA .368 xwOBA Pederson 2024 projection .345 wOBA Belt 2023 .369 wOBA .337 xwOBA Belt 2024 projection .327 wOBA

It sounds like the club is one of the primary suitors for Yairel Rodriguez who they apparently view as a swing man type.

Sheeeeit this team could have a really hard time scoring without significant bounceback seasons from most of the roster if Atkins isn't merely posturing in this presser.

I've never heard of Cameo before this particularly instance so guilty as charged. It was obvious that Gibby was reading off of a script but I wasn't aware of the existence of paying celebrities to read scripts out loud on camera.

That doesn't feel like a particularly fair bet if each of you are receiving equal odds. For instance Josh Hader is only projected for 0.9 FWAR by Steamer.

Tatis and Kim are the two targets I like from the Padres, but Kim is a massive bargain and they are trying to win so it's hard to see them being particularly interested in trading him. Tatis has legitimate potential to be MLB's best player but he's signed basically forever and his deal is actually reasonable for a young superstar so the cost to attain him would be prohibitive.

This outlines exactly why I would never trade in the stock market as I would be exactly the type to get attached to certain stocks. I let my financial adviser steer me in the proper direction in terms of investment opportunities. At any rate Vlad is still projected for a 144 wRC+ and his quality of contact supported much better results than he obtained in 2023. I simply think it's a bad time to cut bait as the team would stand to gain far more value if he's kept and breaks out vs the value they would lose if he's traded and breaks out for a different team.

Despite how lost at the plate Vlad appeared to be for a good chunk of the season he still hit the s*** out of the baseball and his expected stats support something in the 130-140 wRC+ range. I don't think he's that far away from producing a monster season at the plate but that's certainly far from a certainty given his career trajectory. I thought that his 2022 season likely represented a "down" season for Vlad after the 2021 offensive explosion but unfortunately his floor was much worse.

I'm cool with trading Bo if the rumors are true and he isn't amenable to signing an extension before he reaches free agency. I'm incredibly hesitant to ship Vlad at this point given how young he is and the tremendous upside he still offers. I have serious doubts the eventual return would be close to the value Vlad will offer the team if he finally reaches his ceiling year in and year out. Everything he's said publicly makes it appear as though he wants to be a career Blue Jay but it's up to him to prove he's worth an extension in the next few seasons if this is to occur.