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I think the smart move would be to allow Kiermaier to sign with a different team. He had a season which largely mirrored that of Matt Chapman in that he produced a hot streak early on in the season where he produced the bulk of his value and cooled off dramatically the rest of the way. The early season hot streak saw him sitting at a 149 wRC+ after his first 129 plate appearances. This was built on a house of cards as it included a .389 BABIP despite producing nearly 55% ground balls and only a 16.5% line drive rate. His numbers for the rest of year predictably cratered after his BABIP normalized to .289 with a 84 wRC+ the rest of the way over his final 270 plate appearances.

Ah I see you are utilizing Baseball Reference which is basically the annoying little sister of baseball statistical sites. The Blue Jays were able to sign a pair of two win players so obviously there's no need to acquire 4 win players. I don't know if there is a team in baseball that is willing to sign Bellinger for that kind of money. Unless Boras can convince the Angels or Rockies owners to foolishly waste their money on costly free agent additions for their lousy teams. I'm far from an expert on the topic but I think Bellinger is a pretty good looking dude too so the female fans needn't be too upset if he were signed instead of Kiermaier.

Yeah the Blue Jays obviously had no room for Bellinger's bat on last year's squad and Bellinger out WAR'ing everyone else on the team would have made Bo and Chapman jealous so that would have been bad for team dynamics. The best way to measure a baseball player's relative performance is dollars per WAR only so the fact that Bellinger basically doubled Kiermaier's WAR output for a really similar dollar per WAR basis is completely irrelevant.

I think the Jays with Bellinger vs Kiermaier would receive more than a single win bump. Re-signing Kiermaier means that Varsho isn't spending full time in center field, and I think this alone costs the team another win at minimum, and potentially as many as 2 full wins given Varsho's relative value in center field defensively vs playing the bulk of his innings in left field again. It would be a tremendous waste of a guy who is potentially MLB's best outfield defender to have him spend another season in a corner outfield spot. Kiermaier has a 1.1 win projection vs the 2.4 win projection for Bellinger, but unlike Kiermaier who's projection seems very reasonable I think Bellinger has a very good shot to beat his projection. He provided value commensurate to a 5 win player when you prorate his time to a full season of play. It seems unlikely he will be able to completely recreate the success on the field, but let's say he beats his projection to a very reasonable degree and produces a 3 win season compared to the single win season for Kiermaier. Now the split from Bellinger vs Kiermaier is suddenly 2 wins. Add that to the 1-2 wins from playing Varsho in center field for a full season and the team receives a 2 win increase in wins on the lower end, with a really easy path to enjoy a 4 win or more increase in wins between the two players if Varsho continues to be a 4 win center fielder as he has been in his career up to this point and if Bellinger maintains even a modest increase in his offensive gains as compared to the modest projection.

Casuals would absolutely hate Adames as he doesn't hit for a high enough batting average. He's basically the short stop version of Varsho.

I never once suggested signing Bellinger at any cost. If the term and AAV comes down to something more commensurate with the risky offensive profile I think he's worth a bit of risk, otherwise the club should simply move on. I think Bellinger at something like a Springer contract is worth a gamble given the potential upside he offers.

The lack of cost controlled talent on the roster is the key factor that may lead to this current window closing. It's simply not sustainable long term to keep handing out $20 million AAV free agent contracts every single off season if there isn't a pipeline of cheap talent to replace more expensive veteran players who depart.

It's not just Vlad and Bo that might be gone after 2025 as Bassitt's contract will expire. Move a year further into the future and Gausman's deal expires and Berrios can opt out as well. The team may be losing 3/5 of it's rotation within the next 3 seasons and it's far from a given they will be able to replace someone like Gausman on such a team friendly contract in the future.

I'd be cool with either. I think Bader is a better defender but he can't stay on the field due to the rash of injuries, vs Taylor who has been a little steadier offensive contributor over recent seasons.

Bader's splits are incredibly variable over recent seasons so it's impossible to know what to expect. Vs Left Handed Pitching 2023 153 wRC+ 2022 66 wRC+ 2021 101 wRC+ 2020 223 wRC+

Come on man even you know Taylor would be the 4th outfielder or weak side platoon partner/4th outfielder at best.

For what it's worth Arenado and Altuve employed produced less extreme batted profiles earlier in their careers. None of these guys are perfect comparisons, but I simply used them to outline that there are a collection of dudes in MLB who have displayed the ability to pretty regularly outproduce their expected stats despite uninspiring quality of contact metrics. Instead looking at career BABIP levels I suspect it would be more instructive to look the types of xBA/BA splits that the aforementioned players tended to enjoy in the seasons where they greatly outperformed their expected stats to a great degree as I suspect this would look rather similar to the type of split that Bellinger produced in 2023. I'm most likely just looking for potential silver linings/bits of hope that Bellinger might have a chance to replicate his 2023 success in his good seasons in the future. I don't think it's completely impossible he enjoys similar seasons in the future, but I certainly wouldn't expect this to occur with any kind of regularity. I don't think there are any front offices both looking to spend a huge chunk of money and dumb enough to hand out something approaching $200 million for Bellinger's services so the contract demands should eventually come down to something more reasonable given the question marks in his offensive profile.

I just tend to think with where the club finds itself in the competitive cycle and need for potential impact Bellinger is a worthwhile gamble up to a point. He's the ultimate high risk high reward player but I'm kind of at the point where I'd like the team to take the shot if they can get the contract terms down to a mutually agreeable level. Baseball contains a collection of good hit tool+high contact/low strikeout guys with lower exit velocities who have the ability to regularly park balls in the seats despite the uninspiring quality of contact. This includes players like Boegarts, Altuve, Arenado and even Jose Ramirez who have all experienced a pile of seasons where there is a massive gulf of 30 to 40 points or more between their WOBA and xWOBA levels. Bellinger just experienced one such season and given the similarities between his 2023 and the seasons that the previously mentioned group has often experienced this could be the type of result he's able to produce in a good season. I have a theory that there is a group of players who are outliers in terms of being able to regularly beat their expected stats by a large degree in a similar fashion to pitchers who are FIP beaters year over year. It's too early to tell if Bellinger could be one of these guys after a single season of running this type of profile though.

Hey what can I say, I'm a bit of an optimist.

Don't try to pretend you even understand what's being discussed.

Break down the projections a bit and it's really easy to poke holes into the 2.5 result. Bellinger has averaged 2.6 BrR for his career, but is projected for a sizeable drop to 0.6 for 2024 despite actually improving his relative sprint speed in 2023 and despite being projected to play 20 more games than he did in 2023. His defensive projections are essentially assuming he's going to spend a large amount of time at first base, yet he's most likely going to spend the majority of his time in a corner outfield spot/spot center field duty as a Blue Jay so he would be most likely to handily beat that projection as well. A player with his defensive and baserunning abilities is a really good bet to beat a 2.5 win projection with the projected 108 wRC+ value.

You are acting as though a 2.5 win projection is a concrete lock for what kind of value Bellinger is going to provide moving forward, I simply don't agree. If you think this is the same player as he was in 2021 and 2022 then good for you. I see a player that undertook a complete overhaul in his offensive approach such that his 2021 and 2022 seasons aren't terribly relevant in projecting what he is moving forward. A 2.5 win projection is well and good, but I simply think he has a good chance to beat this projection handily. I just don't think he's worth the kind of contract that Boras is looking for at the moment, but reduce the AAV and term a bit and he suddenly starts to make a lot of sense as a worthwhile gamble.

Bellinger was a 4 win player while missing a months worth of games. Average that out to a full season and he was a 5 win player. He missed a month due to injury and experienced a short slump sandwiched around this injury, but for the most part the guy produced star level results for the majority of his season. 31 G 150 wRC+ 1.3 FWAR 14 G -7 wRC+ -0.6 FWAR (Terminator was in full gloat mode here) 85 G 150 wRC+ 3.3 FWAR So in essence Bellinger was producing results like a 6+ win player for 90% of his season, and factoring in the slump and assuming similar production through the missed time would have produced a 5 win season. He was a little lucky in terms of actual home runs vs expected, but let's surmise that the slight luck component was reduced in terms of home runs and Bellinger would have basically clubbed 5 home runs per month instead of the 6 that he averaged as a whole. That still leaves a player that can hit 25-30 home runs in a season, and combined with an expected .270 batting average and good outfield defense+baserunning presents a player that has a good chance to provide yearly win totals in the 4+ range. I think he's most likely going to be worth a pretty sizable contract, it just remains to be seen how much of the offensive improvements are going to stick year over year.

Boras has actually done this before but I don't think it was with guys with this high of a profile.

I tend to agree with you here. The team is rapidly approaching a point where it's necessary to maximize the strength of the on the field roster for the next few seasons as there is a very good chance it will be necessary to tear things down and rebuild the team. It's entirely possible that neither of Vlad or Bo will be long term Blue Jays and as such I feel this is an important offseason to add the best talent available to maximize the team's chance of success in this short window. If the team needs to undertake a rebuild having guys like Chapman for an extra 3 or 4 years and Bellinger for 5 or 6 years after the window closes won't be a huge deal because the team won't likely be competitive for 3-4 years anyway and these deals will be closer to expiring by the time the team hits another competitive cycle. There are not really perfect players available next offseason to add to the roster either so I don't feel the need to wait until next year. The big free agents that are available in the next offseason come with just as many question marks as the likes of Bellinger and Chapman do right now. Altuve has made a career of seasons like the one that Bellinger just produced where he's constantly running huge gulfs between his results and expected stats, Bregman has been steadily declining and is a Boras client so the contract ask is going to be obscene, Alonso is a 1B who is likely a 3ish win player but also a Boras client, Soto is so bad defensively he's supplied almost identical defensive value to Ohtani the last two seasons and will be an almost impossible sign etc. I think the club may actually be better served to add the potential impact talent that's available to them right now despite the question marks.

He's just so hard to know what to expect moving forward. His quality of contact metrics are less than inspiring and appear to support results in the 110-120 wRC+ range, but I can't help but look at Jose Altuve for nearly his entire career and wonder if Bellinger might be in a similar mold of a guy that outperforms his expected stats year over year. Check out the kind of splits that Altuve runs year in and year out in all in nearly all of his good seasons: 2015 wOBA .347 xWOBA .300 .047 split 2016 wOBA .391 xWOBA .385 .006 split 2017 wOBA .405 xWOBA .360 .045 split 2018 wOBA .363 xWOBA .352 .010 split 2019 wOBA .374 xWOBA .344 .030 split 2020 wOBA .278 xWOBA .288 -0.010 split 2021 wOBA .357 xWOBA .332 .025 split 2022 wOBA .397 xWOBA .354 .043 split 2023 wOBA .393 xWOBA .336 .057 split Jose Altuve has ran sizeable splits between his on field results and expected stats for 6 of his 9 seasons in the Statcast era so in his case this is a phenomenon that has been very repeatable and is reasonable to expect year over year. Bellinger ran a split of 0.041 between his results and expected results in 2023. He's only done this once in his career, but I will be interested to discover whether this was a single year anomaly or something that he can repeat moving forward with a low bat speed/high bat control kind of approach.

The only stadium where Bellinger would have been expected to hit 16 home runs was in San Fransisco. Most major league parks would still place him in the low 20 range for last season typically only shaving a few home runs from his expected stats. Kiermaier is essentially being replaced with Varsho, and Merrifield is likely replaced internally as well. The Jays only received 0.2 WAR from Hicks so I don't think he needs to be replaced. Ditto for Ryu where I think the internal options will likely replace what he offered with more depth starters needing to be added. The team needs 3-4 position player additions depending on what the team plans to do for DH. The key for the Blue Jays to get better will be receiving stronger contributions from the returning roster players. Preseason projections look strong but if course the hitters still need to perform to this level for the offense to perform as required.

Given how bad most of your reactionary hot takes about baseball tend to be I don't know why you expect to be taken seriously about basketball either.

I'd be interested in signing Bellinger (assuming he comes at a reduced cost compared to present) and Teoscar this offseason. I think Teoscar is a good candidate to bounce back in 2024 as he posted dramatically different home/road splits. He posted the best defensive metrics of his career last season as well, so he could provide a little diversity to the club in a combined DH/OF role. I'm also a big fan of the idea of signing Taylor as 4th outfielder as well. He's just too perfect for this roster as a guy who would likely provide great defence across the outfield with a bat just a little below league average. My only potential concern is the sizable increase in his k level.

This is obviously a case where jaysblue erred in thinking that he could really show it to the Atkins Bootlickers TM for once and for all, but his argument was quickly picked apart like usual.