max silver

What voodoo metric is this that you are referencing? Varsho was exactly average by wRC+ in 2021 and 7% above league average by wRC+ in 2022. You should chill out here, Varsho is a low average/high power hitter when he's at his best, but that is far from a terrible hitter despite your incoherent ranting.

It's all well and good to be jealous about Baltimore but it's not exactly an apples to apples comparison given how bad Baltimore was during their tank style rebuild. They get full credit for hitting on so many of their picks but it's impossible to ignore how much they benefited from being able to pick from the top of the draft 1st overall twice, 2nd overall once, and 5th overall in a 5 year span. This would have also given them a far higher draft budget, and as a smaller market club they also receive extra picks and budget in the competitive balance rounds. This allowed them to essentially pick 4-5 top 100 level talents in every one of those seasons. Add in the fact that they are going to be further rewarded for their tanking efforts and small market with even more potential picks for having these players succeed upon callup and they are set for a potential dynasty. The amateur acquisition and development definitely experienced a lull after Bo, Vlad and Cavan emerged and that's one of the primary reasons why the system is light on impact talent in the upper levels of the minors at the moment. It's completely disingenuous to give zero credit for later round players and amateur international free agents signings and act like they don't count just because you don't care for the general manager. There have been quite a few minor league players traded to supplement the major league roster from the listed draft years. That's just as valid of a use for minor league assets as playing them on your own roster, but it would definitely be preferrable if the team can start developing more of it's own home grown talent for long term sustainability. On top of that there are still players who were drafted/signed in the listed time frame that are still working their way through the system as well so the book isn't fully closed on those years at this point. Guys like Barger, Orelvis and Leo Jiminez were acquired during the years you mentioned and they are nearing readiness for their first call up. A lot of the 2020 acquisitions are still pretty young/raw as well so it simply wouldn't be realistic for some of these players to have debuted already. Dudes like Kendrys Rojas and Dasan Brown are some such players who still have a shot to at least make it to the majors at some point. The 2020 draft was shortened dramatically due to the pandemic, and there were far fewer opportunities to actually lay eyes on these players before the draft. It really sucks that the team drafted a bit of a dud in Martin but at least they were able to turn him into Berrios in trade. At the same time most players lost a year due to the pandemic when no minor league games were played, so it's not overly surprising that this particular draft year and subsequent lost year slowed the development of a lot of the players in the system. This would have certainly been a factor for other teams as well so it doesn't completely excuse the relative lack of results by any means but it had to have been a factor in the lack of development for many earlier in the decade.

White doesn't have options so if he's to stick around at all he needs to be on the major league roster in some capacity. He's almost like the defacto number 6 starter unless he's traded away. Perhaps the team could sign or trade for a 5th starter type but with the other more pressing needs on the roster I'd much rather see any available trade and financial assets be expended on position players. Manoah's early projections are not terribly inspiring but I have a really hard time seeing him being anywhere close to as bad as he was in 2023, there almost certainly must have been something physically wrong with him to see the stuff and command crater so dramatically.

IKF at least has a high quality infield glove to go with the substandard bat vs Tapia whose only positive attribute was being a productive baserunner.

I just don't think you can definitively state that the complex will start churning out quality MLB players at X date in the future given the complexity and unpredictability of developing major league talent. There are just too many players that hit developmental walls at certain stages of their development on the way through the system. I'd wager that we should have some answers to these questions within a few more seasons once more prospects have a chance to spend their entire minor league career with the complex in place and in full swing.

It stands to reason the guy is most likely a somewhat better Espinal replacement. Ever since the early season hot streak ended in mid June of 2022 Espinal has been a pretty lousy player, and with the defensive dropoff last season he really has very little use on an MLB roster. It's hard to believe but Kiner Falefa has actually been a better offensive performer over the last 1.5 seasons since Espinal's bat morphed into a pool noodle. Espinal 166 GP 508 PA 77 wRC+ 0.5 FWAR Kiner Falefa 199 GP 676 PA 84 wRC+ 1.0 FWAR Kiner Falefa has produced a little better offensively and his infield defensive metrics are better as well, especially after the dramatic drop off Espinal experienced in 2023. It's still likely a small upgrade at best though and reduces money available for better players so it's a hard move to really like very much on it's own.

It seems like there are people that expected this facility to immediately start churning out fully developed prospects from the day it opened. I believe the hitting lab just opened a year ago or thereabouts so it's still relatively early in regards to how long the complex has been running at anything close to full capacity. I like the talent that has been infused into the system in the last 3 or so drafts, and having a complex such as this one can be an important tool in improving the development of the talent in the system over time. I hope that more roster players and minor league prospects eventually make the decision to train full time in Dunedin over the winter as this will allow the facility to reap the maximum rewards for the organization as a whole. Once the organization has all of the necessary technology in place in the hitting and pitching labs, as well as the systems and expertise to properly staff these labs the team can approximate something akin to offseason driveline training in house.

I haven't heard anything myself but I would guess that ship has sailed by now. I thought he was primed for a breakout season as a multi inning reliever in 2023 if he finally managed to stay healthy. He at least managed to avoid injury for an entire season but his off speed command was completely non existent and greatly limited his usefulness as a member of the bullpen. The stuff is still top notch but he needs to start controlling it if he has any chance to be anything other than a depth reliever.

Having this development complex also has a chance to maximize the developmental results of high end players in the system as well. I think having this complex has already paid dividends in allowing prospects a chance to spend some time in Dunedin in the middle of the season for a tune up. This allows pitchers to fine tune their deliveries and pitch design in the pitching lab, allows hitters to work on their swings with advanced modelling in the hitting lab and other assorted behind the scenes development that simply wasn't available to the team previously. I recall Tiedemann has spent time in Dunedin mid season on tune ups, Zulueata did something similar last season as well.

White ended the season really strong in AAA so at least there's hope he could provide some innings as a swingman next season. Ross Stripling also struggled quite a bit in his first few seasons after being acquired so hopefully White can also experience a similar resurgence next season.

If IKF was signed to be a starter at third this team is going to be in tough generating much offense from the bottom of the order. I really doubt that he's expected to be anything other than a utility type of player though but time will tell.

I don't think these moves should necessarily remove the team from signing any free agents, but worst case scenario if the team completely misses out on their preferred free agency and trade targets these guys are at least competent major league players which create a decent floor for the team.

Varsho was still acquired after the team signed Kiermaier last season so there's no reason to think he's suddenly expendable after Kiermaier was brought back. The team was perfectly happy to run both guys in the outfield last season and Varsho provides a perfect insurance policy to cover for any potential Kiermaier injuries.

I'll never understand what the Padres were thinking handing out 10 year deals to Machado and Boegarts. I'd rather the team sign for Chapman instead if they are going to expend this kind of money on a third baseman. Machado just had elbow surgery so while he should be fine moving forward that adds a potential long term health related concern to a dude that's signed into his 40's.

I also have a hard time saying the roster is improved as compared to the 2023 season. The team is likely to lose Chapman who was a well above average regular despite the extended struggles at times, and the best I think they could hope for with the available pieces at the moment is something maybe approaching an average regular. Schneider and Biggio are both seemingly poor options to man third base with any kind of regularity, and none of the Buffalo crew is tested against major league pitching or even likely ready to man the position full time at the big league level.

It bugs me that Varsho puts up 100 and 107 wRC+ values in his first two seasons as a regular but has a single tough season at 85 wRC+ while underperforming his expected stats by 10 points and now he's a bum that can't hit and never will hit. Moreno plays his first season and produces a 103 wRC+ while overperforming his own expected stats by 11 points and he's suddenly a star. The two players had really similar seasons in which each primarily produced their value with their respective gloves, and the offensive inputs were really close with a .314 xWOBA for Moreno vs a .303 xWOBA for Varsho. Some people just refuse to recognize how similar their respective value was due to the fact that Moreno still has the top prospect luster that's since worn off from Varsho.

Kiermaier posted exactly the same xWOBA as Varsho last season but you aren't whining about how bad KK is.

This offseason has been semi depressing so far. I should be used to this type of early off season from this front office as they've typically taken their time letting the market settle before making their bigger moves later on. It's still hard not to be disappointed at this juncture though as we've gone from dreaming about the likes of Ohtani, Soto and Yamamoto, but no big deal as there are still quality players like Chapman and Bellinger on the market. But then the team pivots and signs floor raising/low ceiling types like Kiermaier and IKF. Hopefully the team has some further free agency and trade moves up it's sleeve as the early moves are incredibly uninspiring to say the least.

I'm at the point where I hope Chapman can be had on a 4 or 5 year deal given how ugly the alternatives look.

The devaluing of an asset already on the team is the only reason I can find to dislike the Kiermaier reunion. I just tend to think that the team would be far stronger overall if they played Varsho in center field full time and brought in another player to be 4th outfielder vs presumably handing center field starting duties to Kiermaier.

I don't think Turner can be relied on to play even a semi regular third base at this point of his career. He played there sporadically in 2023 and his metrics look pretty awful in the short sample.

The thing I really don't care for is that assuming that Kiemaier is starting in center field vs Varsho then the team likely just lowered their potential ceiling.

I don't hate the Kiermaier signing but I'm far from a fan. This creates a roster with two guys that basically have the same strengths and weaknesses as elite center fielders who need to be shielded from tough lefties, while also reducing the potential impact of Varsho if he's forced to spend most of his time in a corner outfield spot again. I think Kiermaier is going to be in really tough to recreate last season's offensive numbers, and this is starting to make me fear that the team is largely going to run back last year's roster as a Chapman reunion is feeling more and more likely. I guess the team still needs another outfielder so perhaps a bat first type can be brought aboard and a good DH could still make for a decent offseason as well. I certainly wouldn't give the 2.4 WAR projected guy 8 years either. I also don't think he's going to receive this type of deal based on the question marks his offensive profile entails. If his market eventually forces him to settle for something more akin to a contract which aligns to the 3-4 win realistic upside he offers I'd be interested in bringing him aboard.

Based on how last season's trade deadline came and went without any offensive additions it seems like a foolish strategy to create a lineup that you know has a lot of holes in hopes of shoring it up at the trade deadline.

Why the f*** should the team fire Varsho into the sun? Please tell me you aren't actually this dumb. The guy is projected for 3 wins, has averaged 3 wins in his career when prorated to an entire season's worth of plate appearances, is inexpensive and has a lot of remaining years of control. He legitimately might be MLB's best outfield defenders, but apparently after a single down season at the plate he should be "fired into the sun". For f***s sakes stuff like this just makes you look like a complete ignoramus.