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keggy

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Everything posted by keggy

  1. keggy
    I couldn't watch any baseball for years when they traded Roy Halladay. Home grown hall of famer in his prime; signed multiple team friendly extensions instead of testing the FA market; full NTC per his request. After the WS glory years, a star wanting to spend his career in Toronto was really touching. Then Ricciardi says he's shopping Halladay and the entire tone of the relationship transforms overnight. He's gone not long after. I didn't start following regularly again until Anthopoulos traded for Donaldson.
  2. keggy
    Horrible break for the d'Arnaud and the Braves. Thumb strength on the glove hand is more important for a catcher than any other position on the diamond. Pure speculation but he might be done for the season and could take even longer than that to get right.
  3. keggy
    That's not really how to evaluate transactions, especially since the Gurriel package thing is a rumour that has never been substantively reported outside of this forum. And attributing Pearson's value to Morales because he took away the financial/roster flexibility to resign Edwin is kind of silly. Not hating on your post, Morales was just an absolute surplus black hole. The worst part of it wasn't even the money or the on-field performance. Three years of an MLB roster slot for a DH that can't hit just hemorrhages value from a pure roster management standpoint.
  4. keggy
    Thomas was huge before, during, and after his playing career. He also fought for testing at the height of the steroid era.
  5. keggy
    In his first AB yesterday Springer grabbed his quad like he got shot. Management deserves whatever news is coming to them.
  6. keggy
    Morales' contract was definitely worse than Roark.
  7. keggy
    Thomas signed as a 39 year old for $18 million / 2 years with a vesting option for a 3rd year. This was in 2006. He had historically bad defensive and baserunning value, so he had to hit like crazy both years just to break even. He put up 1.5 WAR for 18 million. That's negative value in 2021 dollars. That contract had huge downside the day it was signed. BJ Ryan was an elite closer in his prime at 30 when he signed. His contract was $47 million / 5 years in 2006 dollars, the largest reliever contract in MLB history. You can say the injuries were bad luck, but this was a very obvious possibility from the moment it was signed, particularly for a reliever. Both contracts provided huge negative value and were highly possible outcomes from the day they were signed.
  8. keggy
    Historically the team has been pretty judicious about handing out free agent contracts, so Roark is definitely among the worst. Some of the dumbest signings in team history: Kendrys Morales BJ Ryan Maicer Izturis Frank Thomas Erik Hanson For one reason or another, I would rank those signings as worse, but Roark is right up there.
  9. keggy
    Ohtani's swing is a physical marvel. All that whip power comes from hip and torso torque as you mentioned. His arms look like they're doing a lot of work because of his wingspan, but they're mostly along for the ride. This keeps his swing surprisingly short and allows him to put the bat on the ball despite swinging out of his shoes. Ohtani is a freak.
  10. keggy
    Agreed Jeter was horrific. Keeping him at SS out of respect certainly cost the Yankees wins, especially when they had a better option right next to him. I've always thought the root of Bichette's defensive problems was his arm. For slowly developing plays or grounders deep in the hole he knows he can't just gun down the runner so he gets ahead of himself, leading to bobbles and rushed throws. I'm fine with keeping Bichette at SS with our current roster, but if we ever acquired a classic SS like Lindor, I would move him for good.
  11. keggy
    It's hard to contextualize this deal because it's unprecedented but it seems reasonable at first glance. The Padres will soak up huge surplus on the front end, and s***** bench players will be making that AAV by the back end. It's obviously a risk at that length, but it's the kind of calculated risk that could set the stage for a dynasty under the right conditions.
  12. keggy
    He's gotten a lot better since 2018, when he accumulated most of that negative defensive value. He can run a bit and has a nice arm. I say keep him out there and use the DH to squeeze another bat into the lineup.
  13. keggy
    Law acts like Kirk has literally nothing left to develop. Kirk doesn't speak English, needs to learn how to handle a pitching staff, and probably needs diet off 20 pounds of pure fat just to have a viable long term career. Law either thinks that Kirk will never lose weight, or that he can do all this while continuing to perform well at the major league level.
  14. keggy
    He'll pitch well until the trade deadline, then get flipped for three unranked prospects--two of which will go on to become all-stars.
  15. keggy
    He likes to speak in absolutes, which is a terrible trait for a statistician or a baseball scout for that matter. He should've been a defense lawyer or politician.
  16. keggy
    If there's a minor league season let Kirk play there every day while we see if Jansen can can start hitting. If Kirk looks like the real deal he'll be called up for the stretch run regardless. We're fine with the masturbator as the backup C for now.
  17. keggy
    All the players involved are flawed. The most likely scenario where this trade hurts us is if it turns into a Liam Hendriks/Jesse Chavez situation, where Foley suddenly turns good for a few cost-controlled years. This is possible but unlikely though.
  18. keggy
    For the record I think we're a good young team that makes the playoffs. I'm just saying a team like the Dodgers or Padres can take a giant s*** on us without one or two more stars.
  19. keggy
    Didi has a true shortstop's arm, possibly the best arm strength on the team if he signed.
  20. keggy
    Nothing against Fisher personally but he seems like a lost cause headcase. Guy has 70-grade speed but doesn't know how steal a base. Lets routine popups hit him in the face more than once. If Yasiel Puig and Guerrero Jr. had a love-child, he might be as baseball IQ stupid as Fisher.
  21. keggy
    Talent wise we're roughly at the level of 2006 (the one good year under Ricciardi) or 2014 (the year before we went on our run). Those years we had some really valuable young talent mixed with serious flaws that championship teams don't have. We still needed to acquire guys like Donaldson and Martin to become a legit championship contender. With the new format playoffs are well within reach though. This all assumes we don't add any more star level talent this offseason.
  22. keggy
    Quintana's projections are depressed by missed time due to an absolutely freak injury washing dishes, and he pitched well in a small sample post-injury. If he's recovered this and the Charlie Morton signing are the finest moves of the offseason.
  23. keggy
    Keep him. Grichuk is a solid 4th OF who can play center or platoon with Tellez if needed. The contract was a mistake but what's done is done. The elephant in the room is that Grichuk, Gurriel, and Hernandez all have somewhat risky batting profiles. If one or two of them takes a step back you won't regret having that depth. Grabbing Brantley and dumping Grichuk also makes sense if you want to mitigate some of that risk.
  24. keggy
    The inaccuracies with WAR accumulate over the course of a career, especially for pitchers. Jack Morris was a league average pitcher over a very large number of career innings. This is a very valuable pitcher but he doesn't deserve to be discussed for the Hall of Fame. The bigger problem is that pitcher WAR is broken for career comparisons. Morris has a similar career WAR as Jim Palmer, who was a >90% first ballot Hall of Famer and was like 20% better at run prevention over a similar number of innings. Andy Pettitte has a higher career WAR than Tom Glavine despite being worse at run prevention with > 1000 fewer career innings.
  25. keggy
    The amount of blind faith casual fans put into defensive metrics, especially for historical players, is why the old school guys hate analytics so much. Look up how Total Zone is calculated.
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