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keggy

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Everything posted by keggy

  1. keggy
    On the positive side, Grichuk has a much higher floor than Morales who was basically un-rosterable due to his negative defensive and baserunning value. If Grichuk can handle center field over time, basically he will never be worse than a 4th outfielder. This is more of a curious low-risk low-reward lateral move similar to signing Maicer Izturis.
  2. keggy
    If Grichuk turns into a 7 win player Atkins deserves to win executive of the year. That's like a 99%ile projected outcome for him.
  3. keggy
    Toronto has had a top 10 payroll in all of MLB for the better part of a decade. Rogers is willing to pay for a winning team. The problem is that paying for elite talent through free agency is inefficient. Even with free agent signings, the team will need Guerrero, Bichette, and at least one other player to perform at an all-star level for dirt cheap before we can even think about contending.
  4. keggy
    As you mention, the precedent for elite relievers to contenders at the deadline is very favorable to the sellers. Andrew Miller got traded for Clint Frazier and Justus Sheffield at the deadline, and Eduardo Rodriguez before that. The Cubs traded Gleyber Torres, Adam Warren, and Billy McKinney for half a season of Chapman. Brad Hand fetched Meija as you mentioned. Even the fact that the Astros gave up so much to take wife-beating Osuna off our hands shows how much of a premium contenders are willing to pay to upgrade the bullpen. Any return less than a shiny prospect for Giles should be considered a failure.
  5. keggy
    Guerrero's weight is absolutely a problem for a 20 year old kid with a history of injuries. Young Tony Gwynn was lean, stole 50 bases, and stayed in the outfield for his entire career. Fielder and Vaughn were fatter than Vlad, but they were first basemen with no defensive value and were finished as elite players by age 30. Troy Glaus and Chipper Jones were huge third basemen who stayed at the position, but they were built like tanks and quick enough to cover shortstop. Guerrero is one undisciplined winter away from looking like Pablo Sandoval or Kendrys Morales. I think we can agree that Vlad is a generational asset that could be worth $100 million in surplus value over the life of his controllable years. If upper management hasn't hired a nutritionist to count every single calorie that goes into his body 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, they need to pick up the phone and do so today.
  6. keggy
    Successful organizations don't agonize over fringe players like McKinney and Dwight Smith. This is similar to the choice between Danny Valencia and Chris Colabello during the playoff run.
  7. keggy
    I doubt the 3 weeks he spent in the Jays bullpen ruined his career. As for the Rockies and Orioles keeping him in the pen, Castro was always projected to be a bullpen arm with his delivery. If anyone might have been hurt career-wise in 2015 it was Osuna, who had the repertoire to start but pitched too well to move out of the bullpen.
  8. keggy
    I don't think you can divorce the performance of the Atkins and Shapiro like that. Hiring a GM is the single most important task for the president and reflects his values and philosophy. Also, with respect to the Indians who have been a good team with budget constraints, if the Rays front office existed in the AL Central, Cleveland might make the playoffs once in five years. This doesn't bode well for the Jays, who are actually competing against the Rays, along with the Boston and NY financial juggernauts.
  9. keggy
    The JD trade was one of the worst fleecings in the past 5-10 years. The proposed trade is even more lopsided for the Jays. A low-probability outcome is that 1 year of 1 roster spot of Chapman outperforms all of those players over all of their controllable years combined. Any exec who doesn't take that trade would be fired on the spot. On Barreto, he was a top 100 prospect at the time of trading and elevated to top 20-40 in subsequent years. Groshans is currently unranked (although he will very likely be there in the coming offseason). Historically speaking Barreto was as highly regarded as Groshans if not higher.
  10. keggy
    Thornton is has a 25% K rate as a starter with a 4 seam fastball in the low 90s. His spin rate is probably the reason that he's holding his own without getting completely destroyed. With that said on a team with a deep rotation, I think Thornton turns into a lights-out reliever.
  11. keggy
    It's quite clear that the front office does not value defense relative to other skills. The team has ranked near the bottom of the league in defense since they took over, including last in all of the majors last year.
  12. keggy
    Despite his unpopularity Pillar has been an absolute surplus machine since he joined the team. He's on the decline but he is almost certainly worth more to the Giants than what they gave up for him.
  13. keggy
    Alford has one of those worrisome offensive profiles that relies on high BB rates without a great hit or in-game power tool to back it up. If he doesn't improve in either of those categories big league pitchers are going to knock the bat out of his hands. Of course he's so insanely athletic he may be capable of improving on the fly.
  14. keggy
    You can't use free market $/WAR valuations because we're buying out his remaining arbitration years. This deal is similar in philosophy to the Aaron Hicks and Kevin Kiermaier deals, although those players were much more valuable at the time of signing.
  15. keggy
    Payroll is set by ownership so that's not really relevant. JP's greatest impact was his draft performance, which decimated the organization for years.
  16. keggy
    I think protecting him was the right move. The combination of age, upside (depending on which scouts you listen to), and prior success at AA makes him a fringe candidate to contribute at the MLB level in 2018. If he were older or less advanced it's a different story.
  17. keggy
    Jays with numbers as good as Bichette as a teenager? Maybe Tony Fernandez from decades ago. John Olerud going straight from the draft to the majors at age 20 definitely means something, but not quite what you might be looking for. Alex Gonzalez hit for power and speed with good defense at shortstop as a 20 year old in AA and was one of the most coveted prospects in baseball, but again not the same hitting numbers as Bichette. Bichette's run at Lansing was historically good.
  18. keggy
    In terms of Top 10 in all of baseball, which Vlad certainly is, Shawn Green, Alex Gonzalez, and Alex Rios were all ranked top 10 prospects. Bichette's status is a notch below that but arguably in the same historical ballpark as guys like Josh Phelps, Felipe Lopez, Shannon Stewart, Halladay/Escobar/Carpenter, etc. Other than Ricciardi, the Jays have a very long and respected history of draft success.
  19. keggy
    By this imperfect metric he still ranks ahead of the Cubs and just behind the Astros, two teams that tanked as hard as any team in baseball for draft position. In reality, AA was only good at drafting high ceiling starters, but he was so much better at this than almost anybody else. He used this surplus to address major league needs with mixed results.
  20. keggy
    A more accurate comp for absolute ceiling is probably Miguel Cabrera for Vlad, Mike Cameron for Alford, and Brandon Phillips or Howie Kendrick for Bichette.
  21. keggy
    This is not a popular opinion but AA's drafting record is among the very elite in baseball. He traded away way too much minor league talent, but this was only possible because he had the ability to draft talent in the first place.
  22. keggy
    A true 80 hitter has bat to ball skills, puts the ball in play consistently with authority, and doesn't strike out. The barrel stays in the hitting zone for such a long time they can make solid contact even when they're fooled. They should be competing for batting titles on a regular basis. More credit to someone who can make contact with authority as opposed to slapping the ball into play. An 80 hitter's vintage seasons will often have more home runs than strikeouts. To me, Joe Dimaggio is the prototypical 80 hit guy. Gwynn, Williams, and Boggs all up there. Edgar Martinez is a step below that, but has a similar profile. A lot of current guys are fooled way too often to be considered an 80 hit.
  23. keggy
    I can't imagine a scenario in which the FO goes after Morrow without AA directly or at least getting an okay from him beforehand.
  24. keggy
    The front office needs to be a little more aggressive about plugging holes than they were this year. There's a happy medium between going all-in and giving Ryan Goins 300 AB. If we minimize giving major playing time to below-replacement players, we can definitely field a competitive product without hurting the future.
  25. keggy
    If he follows standard aging curves and they keep playing him, he'll be one of the 5 worst players in the league.
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