keggy
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Everything posted by keggy
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By this imperfect metric he still ranks ahead of the Cubs and just behind the Astros, two teams that tanked as hard as any team in baseball for draft position. In reality, AA was only good at drafting high ceiling starters, but he was so much better at this than almost anybody else. He used this surplus to address major league needs with mixed results.
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A more accurate comp for absolute ceiling is probably Miguel Cabrera for Vlad, Mike Cameron for Alford, and Brandon Phillips or Howie Kendrick for Bichette.
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This is not a popular opinion but AA's drafting record is among the very elite in baseball. He traded away way too much minor league talent, but this was only possible because he had the ability to draft talent in the first place.
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A true 80 hitter has bat to ball skills, puts the ball in play consistently with authority, and doesn't strike out. The barrel stays in the hitting zone for such a long time they can make solid contact even when they're fooled. They should be competing for batting titles on a regular basis. More credit to someone who can make contact with authority as opposed to slapping the ball into play. An 80 hitter's vintage seasons will often have more home runs than strikeouts. To me, Joe Dimaggio is the prototypical 80 hit guy. Gwynn, Williams, and Boggs all up there. Edgar Martinez is a step below that, but has a similar profile. A lot of current guys are fooled way too often to be considered an 80 hit.
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I can't imagine a scenario in which the FO goes after Morrow without AA directly or at least getting an okay from him beforehand.
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The front office needs to be a little more aggressive about plugging holes than they were this year. There's a happy medium between going all-in and giving Ryan Goins 300 AB. If we minimize giving major playing time to below-replacement players, we can definitely field a competitive product without hurting the future.
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If he follows standard aging curves and they keep playing him, he'll be one of the 5 worst players in the league.
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General 2017 Blue Jays Discussion Thread
keggy replied to reedjohnsonfan's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
That's probably less than what he would get on the open market. Honestly if he follows a standard aging curve he should provide value on that deal. It completely depends on what the Marlins want in return. If we provide a B prospect and salary relief, that's a good deal for us. We can keep him to remain respectable or we can flip him a year later for better prospects. This is how big market teams with financial flexibility flex their muscles. -
General 2017 Blue Jays Discussion Thread
keggy replied to reedjohnsonfan's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Knee swelling is known as the poor man's MRI for knee injury. The Jays are not poor; he should get an MRI to evaluate the meniscus. -
The net value of the franchise has more than doubled since we made the playoffs. Rogers has a stranglehold on the Canadian television market and we have the highest attendance in the league over the past two years. It's difficult to overstate the importance of this point, as this corresponds to hundreds of millions of dollars. You can certainly argue over the Tulo versus Reyes and Price versus Norris from a baseball perspective, but it's ludicrous to question the decision from a value perspective. The long term financial health of the franchise has paid off those trades several times over.
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I can't speak to the legality of the play because the rule is confusing, but this is not a dirty play. A runner has no requirement to avoid contact within the running lane to any base or home plate when the fielder has the ball. Here's a classic example: Belle was later punished for throwing elbows but not for the contact.
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General 2017 Blue Jays Discussion Thread
keggy replied to reedjohnsonfan's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
As long as the Braves don't want anything more than some intriguing low level prospects, this is a perfect trade for a team in our position. We're hemorrhaging value with Goins out there. -
Obviously none of us are privy to the internal data they're basing this on. However, getting a prospect as many reps as possible to develop healthy mechanics and muscle memory is a pillar of traditional player development. There are also decades of hard data which tell us that a player that successfully reaches the majors at a younger age is more likely to have a all-star/MVP/hall of fame career. Purposely limiting a young prospects ABs is a very unconventional approach.
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Truly one of the greatest blunders in postseason history. I would still take his contributions over a full season though.
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If teams were willing to give up their stars for garbage prospects at the deadline, every team would be doing that. When it comes to going for a potential World Series run you can't have your cake and eat it too. These sorts of trades almost always sacrifice future value for present value. Look at what the Cubs and Indians gave up for Chapman and Andrew Miller. Sure, it doesn't make sense to trade a blue chip prospect when you're barely fighting for the 2nd wildcard spot, but the Blue Jays were the best team in baseball in 2015. Almost every World Series team has to make these sorts of difficult decisions. An added bonus is that the Jays are a financial juggernaut again for the first time since the early 90s.
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We all hate Showalter but he's also a great manager. He turns garbage teams with a good bullpen into playoff contenders. This year with the starters pitching less innings and bullpen injuries have taken away his secret weapon. If O'Day and Britton come back healthy and his starters can go more than 4 innings, they could go on a run.
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It's very risky to evaluate a change in defensive value over a third of a season. That's why partial season WAR for a player whose value is mostly in his defense is not a fair measure. If Pillar was injured for the season and we were playing Carrera every day in center we'd be completely f***ed even though their WAR is similar thus far.
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Rule 5 or not, he missed spring training. He needs as many reps as possible to get into game shape. We can always put stash him in the pen later.
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Getting fair value in prospects on a young MVP-calibre player is almost an impossible task. Compressing that many wins into a single roster spot without the catastrophic injury risk of a pitcher is just too valuable. Historically teams almost never win these sorts of trades. A classic example is Miguel Cabrera. Or more recently Donaldson. Neither of those guys is nearly as valuable as Trout.
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Getting out from under the Reyes contract right before he got suspended for domestic violence was the real coup here.
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I hope that's just posturing. Wasting a half-season of development time is huge when you're this young.
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April Postmortem: The Cases For and Against a Teardown
keggy replied to GD's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
The Red Sox won the World Series with an overachieving veteran team in 2013, and were one of the worst teams in baseball in 2014. They dumped pending free agents like Lester, Andrew Miller, etc. and gave playing time to future assets like Jackie Bradley (who was considered garbage at the time)--but didn't touch the major league core. They won the division 2 years later and are still favourites to win the division this year. The Yankees made the playoffs in 2015, sold off assets in 2016 and are a respectable team again. Once you flip the switch on an cheap controllable asset like Donaldson and Stroman, there's no turning back for many years. -
As truly great a player as Machado is, I would be extremely wary of dropping a franchise-altering contract on a repeatedly verified piece of s***.
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This is a very straightforward exercise. You calculate the value of a first overall pick over a 15th overall pick and compare it to the lost attendance, television, and other revenue of a .500 team over the worst team in baseball. Tanking to obtain an incremental increase in draft position for a team that just led the league in attendance and has the largest television market in baseball makes ludicrously bad business sense. We can build for the future without carpet bombing all the positive value the franchise has built up.
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"The team has mostly hunted college pitching in the draft for the last five to eight years but is under new management now." Which is almost certainly not true. AA had a high-ceiling draft philosophy where he targeted mostly raw high school arms (Sanchez, Norris, Syndergaard, Nicolino) mixed with some high-upside college arms (Hoffman, Stroman). Longerhagen might have been referring to Ricciardi's preference for college arms, which was certainly true, or he just misspoke.
