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keggy

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Everything posted by keggy

  1. keggy
    Agreed on all counts that there is no guarantee that he'll be an ace reliever. I say give him 15-20 low-leverage appearances out of the pen and use that data to make an informed decision.
  2. keggy
    Again, you're using starting data to translate to bullpen performance, which doesn't apply equally to all starters. Take some of the very best relievers in the league, like Dellin Betances, Liam Hendriks, and Brad Hand and predict their numbers as full-time starters. In fact we don't even have to make predictions since they were all bad starters which is how they became ace relievers in the first place. Sanchez is a terrible SP and will most likely stay somewhere between terrible and bad. However, to the original premise, I would have an extremely difficult time non-tendering Sanchez based exclusively on his performance as a SP without even trying him out of the pen.
  3. keggy
    Some organizations have academies, dorms, and English tutors for Latin prospects who are older than Guerrero. They teach rural prospects how to pay a phone bill and order food in restaurants. American coaches are asked to take Spanish lessons to better communicate with their players. If a team can't get a 20-year old franchise player to improve his body, they need to make some changes.
  4. keggy
    A struggling starter with a big arm with durability issues who struggles when the lineup turns over and has prior success in the bullpen isn't likely to be a good reliever? I can't think of a more historically classic style of pitcher to improve in the bullpen unless you turned Max Scherzer into a closer or something. Sanchez hasn't had a relief appearance since 2015, so it's not like we have any data that he would be a bad reliever.
  5. keggy
    A reasonable floor for Sanchez is as a high end relief arm, which is worth what he'll garner in arbitration. I would be surprised if Houston gave up on him completely before trying him as a reliever.
  6. keggy
    Also 20-year old Miguel Cabrera was ripped and lean. He started turning into a fatso in his mid- to late- 20s. If Vlad is this heavy at 20, he's gonna look like Gord Ash when he hits free agency.
  7. keggy
    Fair enough. However I would also argue that comparing transactions over just the past three years is quite favorable to the Braves though.
  8. keggy
    They won the division in 2013, were between mediocre and bad for four years, won the division again in 2018 and will presumably win again this year.
  9. keggy
    The Braves free agent signings have been excellent value (Donaldson, McCann, Keuchel). They extended Acuna and Albies to franchise-changing surplus contracts. They have a better farm system than Toronto (largely inherited), and they have a first-place team at the MLB level that wasn't constructed by selling high-value prospects (Anthopoulos' biggest criticism in Toronto). So yeah, Atlanta's front office is superior to Toronto's at all aspects of baseball except possibly drafting.
  10. keggy
    At these prices Mets can afford to go on a run, wait until the offseason and flip Stroman back for better prospects. Teams like the Yankees and A's have been doing this for years.
  11. keggy
    s***** rookie ball pitchers are what you expect for Steve Pearce and Seunghwan Oh. You can get more for Happ.
  12. keggy
    You can barely see Lucroy shift his weight on slow motion replay. There's no way a guy stumbling out of a dead run would have noticed that in real time.
  13. keggy
    Why is Darren O'Day throwing BP?
  14. keggy
    Hendricks was acquired by Anthopoulos. Hendricks for Chavez was post-Anthopoulos pre-Atkins.
  15. keggy
    It takes about 4 seconds of Google searching to find out that Tellez is a Spanish surname.
  16. keggy
    Starter in the offseason, reliever at the deadline.
  17. keggy
    Ignoring context such as win curve, competitive window, etc., the team that gets the best player wins the trade. The Yankees are masters at using leverage to position themselves to acquire the best player. Trading Paxton for a guy who might turn into Paxton was considered by most in the industry as a light haul. The last time the Yankees traded without leverage they traded Sonny Gray for a 40 FV outfielder in low-A. The Jays need to acquire a prospect who has a good chance of being better than Stroman in order to win the trade. Collecting controllable 1-win players spread over multiple roster spots is a lateral move.
  18. keggy
    This is exactly the kind of move a rebuilding team with financial flexibility should be making.
  19. keggy
    Nothing wrong with a minor league contract, but it's important to note that he's borderline unplayable at Dunedin in his current state. It's not fair to compare Ken Giles last year who had a mediocre year in the Majors underperforming his peripherals with a guy who put up -0.4 wins in while recording 19 outs.
  20. keggy
    The Verducci effect has been disproven repeatedly over the better part of a decade. The development team might be using different metrics to justify shutting Pearson down, but a pure innings increase is a poor predictor of future injury.
  21. keggy
    The lasting effects of gutting a system for a playoff run are probably overstated. Anthopoulos gutted the system multiple times and recovered within a couple of years with astute drafting and some self-control. I think what sets the Yankees apart is their willingness and ability to acquire undervalued major league talent, even when they 'should be' rebuilding. If the team performs well, they can keep the players; if they don't, they can trade up for better prospects. It requires more effort and risk than the classic tank and rebuild strategy, but they obviously make it work.
  22. keggy
    All those trades are a win, but the Osuna trade isn't in the same ballpark in terms of scale. Donaldson provided like $100-150 million in surplus value including 2 playoff runs with Lawrie the main piece going back. Wells was a replacement level sunk cost making $80 million in 2010 dollars. To add insult to injury the Jays got major league assets in return. Osuna was a good trade making the best of a bad situation. Donaldson and Wells are the types of moves that change the entire trajectory of a franchise.
  23. keggy
    It's very, very difficult to evaluate the models without knowing exactly what they did, but the problem is that all of those things are correlated to each other. Also, these principles might work at a population level of all minor league prospects but not an individual prospect level. Low minor walk rate is obviously somewhat important for a given prospect because it's correlated with his walk rate in the high minors, which is highly predictive of reaching the majors.
  24. keggy
    I thought Montoyo was fully responsibility for lineup decisions?
  25. keggy
    I think .500 is a very reasonable expectation for the near future. Our negative assets this year were so bad and given so much playing time that all we need to do is replace them with marginal players from free agency or low-risk trades (e.g., Aledmys Diaz). The problem is that the front office tried a similar strategy of adding cost-effective wins in 2017 and 2018 with very poor results (both of those teams were projected to contend for the playoffs). They'll have to re-evaluate their major league valuation strategies moving forward. Building a perennial playoff contender is a separate goal altogether and will rely almost entirely on how the current wave of prospects pans out.
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