keggy

A lot has been said already, so just touching on main objective points. Purely from a roster construction perspective, this is probably the most perfect possible fit outside of getting someone like Ohtani. Varsho is a legit everyday player who is overstretched as a fulltime C, but can easily handle backup duty. This has cascading effects on the roster, as you effectively remove all limitations on Kirk DHing. The team now can and should pinch run for Kirk aggressively in close games. This is normally a trivial factor, but Kirk is so slow that pinch running Merrifield, Biggio, or Kiermaier will add real value over the course of a season. This also makes late inning defensive C replacement feasible during blowouts which we almost never did last year. I don't put a lot of stock in handedness, but he is a LHH that can play every day, which the front office has desperately sought. People clearly have a problem with Varsho's offensive production, which is fair. He's being compared to Grichuk. His bat could be a liability, and he's borderline unplayable against LHP. With that said, he is a great athlete with that power-speed-defense combo that scouts love. I think he'll age better than someone like Grichuk and has a much better chance of breaking out offensively. Young Jayson Werth coming up as a catcher comes to mind as a best case scenario. With all that said, Varsho's present value is almost entirely in his defense, which is elite. I'm not sure people appreciate how much better Varsho is over someone like Gurriel. This makes his floor super high even if he doesn't break out offensively. In a fantasy world, you could imagine a scenario for the Jays where basically every position on the field is gold glove calibre except shortstop. Varsho replaces Gurriel who is a league average player on a cheap contract for 1 year and isn't worth a QO for draft compensation. To me Gurriel is a non-factor in this trade. Losing Moreno is brutal. His absolute ceiling is a gold glove C with at least an above average MLB bat, so basically a perennial allstar. He's making the league minimum which is going to hurt the team more than you think moving forward. Even if he doesn't reach his potential, it's going to be hard for Moreno to be a total bust. With the farm system wrecked and payroll maxed out, this is undoubtedly a move to go for a championship within the Guerrero window. This is the type of deal that might look bad in 5 years, but there is huge variance based on how both Varsho and Moreno develop.

If you go back exactly 12 months, people were having the exact same conversations about trading Kirk or Jansen so Moreno isn't wasted at AAA. Some people had him pencilled in as our starting 3B before we got Chapman. I think he's ready to play in the big leagues, but don't assume he'll be an MVP candidate right away like we did last year.

Kiermaier just provided as much value in 60 games plagued by injury as Tapia's entire career combined. 400 PA of a Kiermaier platoon is fine, we just have to worry about injuries affecting his defensive value.

Halladay was incredibly loyal to Toronto. If Ricciardi didn't alienate him for no reason he would've retired a lifelong Jay.

Whether it's intentional or not, MLB is a corrupt joke that is meddling with the basic integrity of the game. For the Judge games, this could be a case where Yankees pitchers were using dead balls and opposing pitchers were given live balls against their best hitter--during meaningful games in September. For comparison, Deflategate was one of the biggest scandals in NFL history which only involved altering the football equally for both teams.

Yankees are making a clear statement that they expect Judge to be the successor to Jeter as the next all time Yankee. Two red flags are his late career start and his unprecedented body type. I would normally never expect a player like Judge to be around for his age 39 season. On the other side, Judge may be helped by eventual roboumps more than any player in baseball.

Honestly a Bellinger/Merrifield platoon probably makes up for all of Teoscar's 2022 WAR. Positive defense + baserunning and league average hitting from your CF is pretty valuable.

Anyone interested in Bellinger should have a long look at video and talk to as many scouts as possible. With a bizarre swing like that I don't think projections will be accurate.

Let the kids play

I have a much better feeling about Kirk than Guerrero. Vlad is basically a rich kid who has been touted since he was 15. He's shown some signs of laziness and immaturity early on in his career. Kirk signed for pocket change out of the bush leagues and barely spent any time in the minors. He's built like he used to get his nutrients from rainbow skittles. He certainly hasn't shown up to camp even more disgusting like Vlad did in 2020. I'm optimistic about Kirk.

Honestly this is why I'm optimistic that Kirk can lose more weight. Any professional baseball player is burning way more calories than the average internet forum poster. This guy must have literally known nothing about basic nutrition to get this big. Also if he wasn't financially well off in the minors he was probably getting his calories from cheap garbage food. Any competent nutritionist could improve this guy's diet in an offseason.

Other than framing Sal Perez is considered an elite defensive catcher and above league average hitter while playing an obscene number of games by modern standards. All of his negative value comes from framing. Basically with good framing he's Yadier Molina. Really big catchers in general are known to have trouble behind the plate. Matt Wieters was another guy who had a horrible time with framing the low pitch despite being a pretty good athlete.

Does anyone know how much weight Kirk lost in the 2021 offseason? He allegedly went on a diet and lost a lot of weight. I can't tell but I don't have a good eye for men's bodies. Presumably he could continue losing weight this offseason? Slim Kirk should is an untouchable asset in my opinion.

Huge catchers like Perez are almost always a bad idea. If they had roboumps he would be a hall of famer.

By that logic Vlad would still be at 3B.

I really hope they trade Jansen for a major league shortstop or sign one of the big free agents. It's easy to forget how bad Bichette is until you look at the numbers. How much value is he bleeding in the field compared to just an average fielding shortstop? Like 1-2 wins above replacement?

With all the new roster and option limits, I think the days of rule 5 drafting a player and stashing him in your bullpen all year are coming to an end. That 13th pitcher slot is too valuable now. Think of how many times we've had to use the 13th pitcher in a leverage or bulk role and then option him immediately (Thornton, Beasley, Gage, etc.). If anything position players will become more popular to draft. Guys like Zimmer, Moreno, Capra, Lopez, etc. could go weeks without a PA.

When it comes to Teoscar you take whatever you can in his contract year and then you let him walk. The guy doesn't run out ground balls in the middle of a pennant race. Imagine how lazy he'll be after he signs a big fat contract.

This is Ryu's 2nd Tommy John. There are a few pitchers who did well after 2, but a lot didn't. There is a chance that Ryu never pitches again period.

My understanding is that Kirk signed as a no-name local prospect and probably wasn't exposed to much professional conditioning until he reached the big leagues. He allegedly lost some weight between 2021/22. If Kirk is willing and able to dedicate himself to weight loss during the offseasons, this changes his valuation significantly. Specifically his elite contact ability means that any improvements in his speed will add to his BABIP. He led the team in infield hits running like an elephant. Imagine if he were even a below average runner. If he doesn't have the makeup or genetics to lose weight, I think he'll be a good player until he inevitably breaks down. That's for the front office to decide on.

Atkins: "Listen up Bruce. Raimel has some really promising batted ball metrics so you need to play him at least twice a week against righties. This is non-negotiable, am I understood?" Bochy: *Blows cigarette smoke in his face*

Now post their career WAR.

For me moving Bichette is purely a performance issue, but with Springer it's more about keeping him physically intact for the remaining 4 years of his contract, which takes him into his age 37 season. Springer is playable in CF but the conventional wisdom is that moving to a corner will prevent injuries due to decreased workload. It's the same argument for Trout's eventual move to a corner. Given the damage to his elbow, LF might be an even better option than RF to reduce max effort throws.

Bichette has an argument for worst defensive SS in baseball. The time to prove he can handle SS has come and gone, especially with the new shift rules. I haven't seen enough of Espinal at SS to know if he is the answer, or if an internal position switch is even palatable to Bichette. He might need to move for someone like Correa to save face. These are questions that only the front office knows, but I really think they need to stop giving back so much value on defence.

We have enough holes to fill that we probably don't have the luxury of counting on any big FAs. As of today, most our rotation is assuming huge improvements from Berrios, Kikuchi, and White. Next in line after that crap is Casey Lawrence and Thomas Hatch. Springer can no longer play CF every day. And we desperately need to replace 400 PA of Tapia. Cheap stars like Kirk and Manoah are worth their weight in gold right now.