Ahhhh, here goes. You have been very consistent about your view on Grichuk's extension. THAT'S THE POINT. You've been repeating it in multiple threads for what feels like 4 or 5 weeks now. "You know, this FO is s*** - I mean just look at that stupid Grichuk extension".
FWIW, Grichuk has average 2.175 WAR per year over the past 4. I'll round that to 2.2 (because it helps my argument). There were 117 offensive players in baseball last year who posted 2.2 WAR or higher. That's 3.8 per team (which I'll round to 4 to even things out) and thus 5ToolPhenom's suggestion you don't want him in your lineup 2 years from now when he's in the middle of his prime is pretty insane. To suggest a '2 win' player is overpaid at $10M per season is pretty questionable as is, but to suggest no one of that talent level gets paid that much anymore is simply incorrect. He's a quick list of some 2019 FA signees who are still relatively young and have averaged about 2 WAR in previous years (ie, have some decent track record):
Moustakas - $10M
W.Ramos - $8.45M
DJ LeMahieu - $12M
J. Scoop - $8.5M
If you want to question the length of the deal - be my guest. We have to assume the FO thought there was a decent chance that once comfortable in TO and possibly with some maturity and improvement (as he enters his prime years) that instead of a 2 WAR player - he could be a 3 WAR player (much like Steven Piscotty was last year). There were just 68 offensive players who posted 3 WAR or higher last year (2.26 per team). That player, locked in at $10M per season is incredible value. To add to that - given his base running, solid defense and versatility - he comes with a pretty high floor.
It's not difficult to see how the team would evaluate the potential outcomes and the probabilities of each outcome and land on the decision to extend him. Will it work out? Maybe - maybe not. If the math suggests this extension works out (or provides excess value) 80% of the time, with a 40% change it produces a significant amount of excess value....is it fair to s*** on the FO when the outcome unfortunately falls into the 20% chance? I say it's not. Likewise, if the numbers suggest there's a 25% change this extension works out and a 5% change it produces a significant amount of excess value....is it fair to praise them when it works out? I say it's not.
I mean if you want to s*** on their projection and evaluation process - by all means do that; however, you (and I) probably know next to nothing about it, so how the F do you form an opinion?
In general, we all need to stop pretending we understand the evaluations, projections and probabilities. But one thing is for sure - we should stop reemphasizing our opinion over and over again (for 4 or 5 weeks) like it's the only answer, when in fact, we have no f***ing idea.