Brownie19
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Everything posted by Brownie19
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Blue Jays sign Cody Ponce to 3 year deal
Brownie19 replied to Laika's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
I certainly remember that 2005/06 offseason. I made the effort to go to the dome on opening day and 50,000 people were screaming "we want BJs". It was definitely an exciting offseason - primarily because they Jays hadn't been very aggressive in previous years. I also remember pulling over on the side of the road when the Marlins deal was made. I was in shock. But - I think you're understating the excitement that comes from building after a simply remarkable season. The 2005 and 2012 were not good years. The was no hype or expectation for the team. Those signings/trades simply meant we might not stink the next year, whereas these signings increase the likelihood we can make another run at the WS title. It's like we're in the 2015-16 offseason again - only this time, we're adding baby. -
Blue Jays sign Cody Ponce to 3 year deal
Brownie19 replied to Laika's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
by ERA - yes. But his xFIP was 3.00 - the same as his previous 2 years in the NPB when his ERA was 3.35 and 3.66. He was good in the NPB - but not dominant. It is odd that he left the NPB for the KBO last year though. I wonder what the backstory is. -
This did not age well...
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Blue Jays sign Cody Ponce to 3 year deal
Brownie19 replied to Laika's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Wow. This is unreal. -
It would be bananas (B-A-N-A-N-A-S) if the Jays signed another starter like King. Someone is going to give Ponce a guaranteed roster spot. I don't see us landing either to be honest. If we do add another - I would bet it's Bassitt.
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Thanks - all fair points. Rogers is kinda what we hoped Sandlin would provide. He's like the premium version of Cimber. That type of arm certainly has a lot of value. I think my concern might be that it can't be used in every situation and I have recency bias with the inability of Sandlin or Cimber to sustain success. Finnegan might also be a solid 'budget' option if you think the gains are sustainable. Although I suspect some crappy team will offer him the chance to close. I keep forgetting that Stuff+ is on Fangraphs now and that you can show partial seasons. I wish you could do that on the Savant page too!
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Help me understand the alure of Rogers. He's entering his age 35 season and had a K/9 below 6 last year. I know the results were great last year (and very good the 2 years previous). I guess I just struggle with the unconventional approach. I need to talk with Jonah Hill more. Did Detroit change Finnegan at all? He was lights out for them (SSS alert). Maybe just got some BABIP luck and some LOB% luck?
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I assumed Suarez is viewed in the same tier as Diaz and Williams and will command a 3 year deal similar to Williams (maybe a little less?). I don't like him at that price, as he doesn't generate the same whiff rates or K%. If the market views him in the Fairbanks/Helsley tier and you could get him for 2 years $28M, then I'd be firmly back on board with that.
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Sounds like the current projection is Chris Davis in 2012 & 2016, but the upside is Chris Davis 2013 & 2015
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I tend to agree with this. All of it. I'm not sure I saw it posted here, but Helsley ended up getting a 2 year $28M deal. Year 2 is a player option and he gets an extra $500K if he's traded. So if he returns to form, it's a 1 year $14M deal - which is really good value. If he sucks again, you're probably stuck with him for a 2nd year at $14M. I think that's worth the risk given his track record.
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Keller is a name you don't hear mentioned a lot. He was fantastic last year in his first as a RPer. Wonder what he's going to get. He could be a value addition - although there's risk as he doesn't have a long track record. Someone to consider if we don't have $13-15M AAV available to sign a top end closer.
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Devin Williams did not come at any discount for his subpar performance last year. That's full price right there.
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Jake Cook is the fastest player he's ever scouted. Love that. Also love hearing that Yondrei Rojas has nasty stuff. Thanks Spanky
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That's a good way to put it. I agree and I'd be fine with this approach. Fairbanks certainly does carry upside as well.
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It's already been climbing the past 3 years. I don't hate the idea of Fairbanks, but I don't know if he's much of an upgrade over Hoffman. Cons - decreased velo - rapid decline in K/9 - big decline in xFIP and FIP the past 2 years (over his 2022-23 #'s) - entering age 32 season - often injured Pros - won't demand 3-4 year contract - still good velo If we don't have the budget for one of the better closer options (Williams, Diaz, etc.), and we prioritize budget towards an impact bat, then sure - Fairbanks is a solid option to add, but he feels like a fallback option at this point.
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https://www.thescore.com/news/3415565 Kenny reporting we're in on Fairbanks.
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To be fair, outside of last year, he's been nails. Averaged almost 2 WAR a season from 22-24
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I think that's the only reason I'm not keen on Arenado as they really only have room to add 1 new starter. I'd rather a more impactful bat - even if I think we could squeeze another 2-3 WAR season out of him.
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I'll rain on your parade. Obviously there's a chance, but I think it's quite slim. To be fair, one of Bo/Tucker and then one of the closer options would truly be a dream offseason. Cease, Bieber, Bo/Tucker + Closer - that's an unreal offseason.
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Gimenez's floor is likely 2 WAR if he plays a full season, so it's unfair to suggest his contract is an albatross. Obviously we hope he rebounds and gives us surplus value, but even if he doesn't, he plays a pretty vital role on this team with his defense up the middle.
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The beauty thing about the changeup is there are now like 10 different ones you can throw and the nerds can now pinpoint exactly which variation works best based on your arm type and pitch sequencing. Snell was down to just 5% changeup usage in 2022 and now 3 years later, it's his best pitch and is used 24% of the time. Adding that to Ceases arsenal would be idea - along with increase in-zone aggressiveness early in the count.
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If this were true - he'd already have been traded IMO. Nobody is taking that contract when they can get similiar production for 1/3 the price.
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That's a great breakdown. You provide some awesome insight man - please post more, I love this stuff! re: Dodgers, I was tarred and feathered for suggesting their development hadn't been as strong as of late, with guys like Bobby Miller, May, etc. not panning out as they had hoped. In hindsight, I was wrong. I'm correct that they haven't been as successful over the past 2-4 years and some of their top prospects with big time arms haven't panned out - but that's not because their development is poor or slipping, it's just the volatility in their approach.
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Makes sense. Pete is a dinosaur. But a good leader identifies his weakness and brings in people who can fill that void. Be a good leader Pete - keep us on the cutting edge please.
