Brownie19

Yeah - I tend to agree. The only way I see him re-signing is if they Jays take Santander out behind the shed. I'm just curious who thinks he's still got some juice in that bat. If he continues his career, I suspect he'll look for a spot where he's the primary DH.

When does that happen? He's currently coaching the biggest offensive collapse in ML history. How many offenses go from 1st to worst?

Do you think there are teams that consistently draft "steals" (or prospects that succeed)? Or does that remain somewhat of a crap shoot? What causes players to bust? Typically injuries, distractions and I believe it's the inability to control the mental side of the game. I don't know the numbers, but I suspect like 50% of 1st round picks never have any type of sustained career in the majors (maybe it's even higher?). Do some teams have cheat codes that allow them to avoid the busts? Or do we just see teams that get more lucky than the others a few years in a row and that gives us the illusion that they have elite scouting/drafting? I'm sure someone will suggest the Dodgers have the cheat code, and maybe they do, but are there other teams? Are there more than 5 teams we think consistently draft better than other teams? Why so few? With executives moving around so often, you'd think the secrets would get spread around. Drafts seem like the most obviously place to add young, affordable, controllable talent - which is a huge driving factor of sustained success, yet it feels like it's still some magical guessing game.

I suspect other teams look at us and dismiss us in a similar fashion. Detroit is the clear concern. That's a good team, even without Skubal. Run differential is wild this year. AL West is all negative. Pittsburgh is a +19, while in last place

I'm shocked this struck such a nerve gruber. You OK?

The interview Bateman did was amazing. Won't be hard to root for this guy.

I disagree. I mean you can't be a "true" fan of 2 teams that compete in the same division, but you can certainly like 2 teams in the same division. I have no concerns cheering for TB or Boston once the Jays are out of it. I do feel a little greasy doing it - but I find teams entertaining based on the mixture of the players (often new young players who are ascending to superstardom, or old vets who turn back the clock). Sometimes that's on a team in our division.

100% It's hilarious that Gimenez leads the team in WAR, yet is one of the first players that people suggest we need to replace. I get the concerns about his contract - I do. But at least he has a high floor. The elite defense and good base running at a premium position remains valuable, even if the bat stinks. It could be a lot worse.

Guilty - I have no idea who Guerra is. Just stat scouting (radio scouting?). I'm glad to hear he's a mutant with great stuff. The results still don't excite me. Hope he can pull it all together. I didn't forget Perry - I mentioned him several times. It's him and King (and Guerra I'm told). I will admit I don't know much about the new guys like Danny Thompson. I was just going off the Fangraph's Top 40, which isn't updated. I clicked on all the names and the results are pretty f*cking sad. Sam Shaw has been good in limited ABs at least - he's a positive on the offensive side. It's good to see Messina healthy again. But the results are pretty ugly man. 5.12 xFIP and 5.64 BB/9. His K's are great - I hope he can harness it all, but the low ERA looks like a mirage, carried by a low BABIP. You are correct that I don't look beyond these few basic metrics. I'm not looking at pitch shapes. I don't even have access to velo - or I'm far too lazy to find that stuff. I am happy to hear some of those positive things, but it would be nice to see more results. I'm definitely jaded by the lack of development over the past decade.

What's the probability that Springer is a solid DH again next year? Say a 120 wRC+ year with 20+ HRs and 80+ RBIs Is it 40%+?

Not true. This is realistic Brownie. We have like a 5% chance. 1 out of 20 times we make some magical run. I'm just playing the odds man. We have Lee and Little pitching in leverage, Vlad has like 3 HRs this year and ever other game we lose a starting pitcher to injury. It's over man.

The season is over man. They are going to put him in uncomfortable positions and see how he reacts. As they should

Sorry - you you're re right - 3rd bright spot. I typically look at K's, BB's and xFIP when looking at any pitcher. Those are the 3 main metrics I scan to get a feeling for how good a pitcher is. What do you look at?

His walk rate increased and was 4.42 as a 22 year old in A+ ball. His xFIP was 3.97, which is a career high for him. Those metrics dampen my outlook on him. If he qualifies as the 2nd bright spot in our system (amongst pitchers) - I think that's pretty sad man.

We'll be out of the race by the time he can pitch again. See you in spring training Trey. Middling results this year. Obviously he came into the season with unrealistic expectations, but it wouldn't have been crazy to see him challenge for ROY. Instead we got 94 inconsistent innings, with decent, but unremarkable results. BABIP gods were on his side this year. WAY too many walks, but he avoided the long ball well and the swing and miss is there. Hope he comes back healthy and can become an anchor in the rotation moving forward.

Silvano Hechavarria took enough steps back this year that he should probably try another sport. Guerra doesn't look all that interesting. More K's I guess - AA will tell us more. I guess the bar is extremely low these days. Barriera, Bloss, Ricky T - these guys are all broken man. "Progress" is those 3 throwing 68 2/3 innings combined this year. And the bright spot is simply that they pitched because the results have been horrendous - like a combined ERA over 6. 2 of the 3 broke under that overwhelming workload and the other guy has thrown 6 inning over the past 2 years and just 23 1/3 since 2023. I guess Spencer Miles is a reminder that crazier things have happened, but the chance any of these 3 ever pitch meaningful innings at the ML level is like <5% IMO. Sorry to sh*t on all of this. I just don't view this as much progress from Lehr. The best thing that happened this year was Spencer Miles, who just magically fell into our lap.

He had too much power for their liking. Ty Southisene is much more their speed.

That's pretty sad if true. A lot of people here could do it - and we're not getting paid to know the organization. Do you think Lehr decides pitch shapes, pitch usage, changes to what they throw, etc. Do you think they tell Pete what this pitcher is going to do and why? Like with Soriano - is it Pete who's going to make the decision to scrap his 4 seamer? Or is Lehr going to tell both Soriano and Pete - and tell them that's the direction the org wants?

I'm not sure I see these strides. Obviously Yesavage is the major one, but he was a near ready arm who only threw 110 innings in the minors. It's King and Perry - almost every prospect who's noteworthy has sucked this year.

You can't stand Jomboy? Really? He's been so good for the game of baseball IMO.

ooof - it's been painful. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see some magical run happen, but as soon as that dream ends, I can't wait to see Sean Keys, Bateman, McAdoo, BV, Clase, Smith, etc. get some run with the team. Let's see if we might have anything there. I'd say the same thing about our pitchers, but all the losers they've brought up this year look like utter sh*t. Waldron, Dallas, Van Eyk, Estrada and Lee are all have as many walks allowed as strikeouts. It's embarrassing bad. They make Tommy Nance look like Mariano Rivera FFS.

Who had 1 year of control left. He did have a great 2023 with the Diamondbacks, but re-signed him and he's been balls the last 2 seasons. I'm aware.

I just read that the Director of Pitching Development was a new position, created for Justin Lehr in 2025. Before that, Cory Popham was the Minor League Pitching Coordinator (2023-2024) and the Pitching Development Coordinator (2021-2022). Cory was seemingly useless and thus fired. Don't know why they keep renaming the position. It says Justin Lehr directly shapes pitch design, pitching identity, and individual mechanical adjustments across all minor-league affiliates. Surely to god, Pete Walker is involved with this and is supportive of the approach. Or is this some Art Howe / Moneyball situation, where the org just tells Pete what's going to happen and he can either accept it, or FO. Whatever we're doing, it's been balls for well over a decade, across multiple GM's.

Feels like you can count on one hand the number of times the Jays won a game handily, where the leverage relief pitchers could take the night off. Offense has just been abysmal all year, which creates a bad snowball effect.