I get the argument that Belly may not be a sizable upgrade over current starters; however, I think people are undervaluing what he could bring.
Without another impact bat, I believe there's a lot more pressure put on Santander to rebound and for Okamoto to hit the ground running. If either or both of those things don't happen, then it will add even more pressure on the secondary pieces like Kirk, Barger, Clement and even Springer to repeat. We have to consider that a lot of things "went right" last year. Is that because of Popkins is some messiah? Some will say yes, and maybe it is to some extent, but my gut says we can't plan on that happening again.
Over the past 3 years, Belly's wRC+ has been 123 over 1781 PA's. Just for comparison, over the same span, Bo's is 116. Do I believe Bo will be a better hitter moving forward (based on age and ability)? Yes I do, but Belly isn't some pushover and there's a reasonable probability he remains a 120-125 wRC+ bat, with solid defense and base running (his sprint speed hasn't dropped much at all over the past 4 years) for the next 3-4 years. People have concerns that Belly's stats are inflated by Yankee Stadium - and yes they are to some extent, but he was still very good with the Cubs (his 2023 was better than his 2025 season).
Do I think the Jays are f*cked if they don't sign Belly or trade for another impact bat? No, I do not. I like our team Barry and we always have the option to add in-season. But - do I think they should just dismiss Belly altogether - especially if they conclude he can't play a passable CF in 2026 or 2027? I do not. I'd make sure I know what Belly's cost is and would seriously consider if they could find a way to add him to this team. Again, for me - if he's willing to take a short term deal like Bo - I'd be all over that.
Belly on a long term deal scares the crap out of me - but we need to adapt to the new MLB. These short term, high AAV contracts remove a ton of the risk. If the Jays and stomach paying the high AAV - it's a great way to add talent without that long term risk.