Brownie19

Bingo - this isn't a difficult read. The probability he repeats 2023 is quite low.

I have no idea, but my gut would tell you it isn't pretty. Although that's somewhat to be expected as most are signing at age 30 or older and thus declining. Teams know they are trying to get 3-4 great years out of them and then absorbing the s***** tail end of the deal...I wonder how often teams even get those first 3-4 years of production though. Less than you'd think I suspect.

turn tables?

O'Neill had been straight garage the previous 2 season (combined PA's of 1 full season). Always hurt, wRC+ < 100. He was a lottery ticket this year that has paid off. There was probably a 5-10% chance he would give any team a >130 wRC+ bat and a 2.5-3 WAR season. There's probably the same likelihood that Kepler - or O'Neill provide that to a team in 2025. That said, I heard one of the reason's O'Neill is hitting this year is because he's MUCH better with breaking balls. If that's a skill he's developed (and not just luck), then perhaps the chances of him repeating his production this season go up (although it's always tough to bet on a guy with a 33% K rate). Kepler feels like a guy who'll sign for like 1 year $4M or as a minor league free agent. 32 year old, often injured, platoon bat with a career wRC+ of 103? Hard pass IMO - just let the youngsters play.

Saw that - and Lloyd has been hurt for most of the preseason. Wilson will act as the #2, but we're thin at RB suddenly. Also an interesting move to trade for Willis and dump the other 2 backup QB's.

Who doesn't want to see if Will Wagner can handle lefties?

100% agreed. The small spring training parks create a really cool atmosphere. College football is great (I unfortunately don't have time to follow it anymore) and I too would love to go watch a game at the Big House. It hear it's incredible.

Isn't the estimate that we'll have around $50M? That leaves $15M for a backup catcher, SP depth and a new bullpen. It's going to be tight. O'Neill has tantalizing upside, but man is there risk in that profile, between the injuries and K rate.

That's fair. I mean Houston has recently let several star players walk and may let Bregman walk this coming offseason. I think that's a lot easier to pull off if you're a legit WS contender. Hard to let assets go for nothing while trying to sneak into the 3rd WC spot. Not sure our farm system or team is in a position to do that with Bo. Then again - you just need to get into the playoffs to have a shot.

I think for that to work, that LF free agent you're signing better mash to the tune of a 4+ WAR season. All of this kind of depends on what they do with Bo. If everything falls into place and they are contending for a playoff spot next year, would they actually just keep him at the deadline and let him walk after the season? That just seems really stupid. So either he's gone this offseason (creating another big hole to fill) or we aren't actually contending next year and he's dealt at some point before the deadline.

Perhaps. I'm not sure we were ever as bad as they played earlier in the year. We probably finish around .500 and may even sneak up into 3rd place in the division when it's all said and done. Getting absolutely nothing from Bo, KK, Swanson and Romano this year really screwed them over. I think we knew they needed things to break right to be a playoff team. Didn't happen.

We have the best record in the division since over the past 45-50 games I think.

The response will be that it creates depth (which it would). If there was a mid-level starter they really liked this year, they could get him now to ultimately replace Bassitt the following year, while giving Yariel another year to build up his innings. They will ultimately need to replace Gausman at the top of the rotation soon. Berrios really f***s everything up. Paid like a top of the rotation guy, pitching like a #4. They Jays are going to need someone like Francis or Yariel to make a jump to the top of the rotation (or some massive bounce back from Berrios) if they are going to be contenders again. I guess you could try and sign Burnes this offseason if you want to pour another $30M into our rotation....but he's no longer the guy he was in 2021/22 either. They are in a tough spot.

Doesn't mean I have to agree with it. I don't want to be the Angels, Mets, Giants or the Cubs (I guess we already are....blah).

I don't think you're going to get Santander, Teo or Walker for 3 years $42M. That's what LGJ and Soler signed for and they both suck balls and don't have near the track record of the other 3. It may take $60M+ or a 4th year to get those guys. They "could" produce enough in 2025 to help the Jays get back to the playoffs, but I still think that's a stretch and it would take several other things to break their way. My issue is the Jays already have too much money sunk into declining guys (Berrios, Bassitt, Springer, Gausman). I'm not sure I'm "pushing my chips in" for a shot to make the playoffs in 2025, only to have them become dead money soon afterwards. Almost all the other guys you just listed f***ing suck, or have a strong probability of sucking very soon. Profar and O'Neill likely cash in on a 2-3 year deals (and I'd want no part of that), but I'd agree the rest will likely settle for 1 year deals. I could see being appealing to the Jays, but honestly, I'd just roll with what we have over brining in guys like Winker, Conforto, Kepler, Hoskins, etc. They are all non difference makers and that money is probably better spent on some bullpen help (although I hate the idea of spending on the bullpen too). Building through free agency rarely works.

I guess that's true. Except you're in Buffalo, instead of vacationing in Florida or Arizona. Oh and except the starters and top prospects actually play at spring training (imagine being in Atlanta and Michel Penix Jr. doesn't play a single snap in a preseason game). I do enjoy a good tailgate though - I'd probably enjoy it even more if I lived in Buffalo.

I would agree with this. I suspect the probability Vlad can provide even slightly below average defense at 3rd base over a full season is <20%. I think he's defensively Jake Burger at 3rd. Do I think they can hide him at 3rd like 25% of the time if they want to play that game with all kinds of late game defensive subs.

There's no way we sign Soto. You think it's in the best interest of the team to outbid the league for guys like Bregman, Santander, Walker, Teo and/or Alonso? I suspect the market for these guys is going to make everyone's butt clench up. I could see Bregman and Alonso getting 5-7 year deals and the other three getting 3 year deals and they are all hitting the decline portions of their careers. I'm not so sure that dumping money at these guys is the right path forward for the Jays. Santander, Teo and Alonso may all be DH's in a year or two (if they shouldn't already be full-time DH's). IMO, the probability the Jays can buy their way back into the playoffs next year aren't very good.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/calculating-war-using-re24/ Interesting little article from Fangraphs on RE24 based WAR. I'd always thought that "when" you get the hits was somewhat outside of the batters control (hence why it's really hard to be "clutch" year after year), but that's essentially what RE24 is based on. Curious what others think. This metric suggests Vlad (3.74) and Varsho (3.65) are similar in WAR because Varsho has been so "clutch" this year.

I just read this "Pirates manager Derek Shelton said that Oneil Cruz will start seeing some time in center field. It makes some sense. The talented 25-year-old has a -3 Outs Above Average at shortstop this season and has a -13 mark for his career. If you prefer Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) then he has a -3.4 mark in that and if you like Error Runs Above Average (ErrR) then he sits at -3.9. Essentially, he has been a below-average shortstop, and the Pirates are recognizing that. Cruz is 6'7" which is not common for centerfielders, but moving to the outfield is likely the best chance for Cruz to remain on the field as an everyday player for the long term. There’s no indication of how soon this will take place" Will IKF take over at SS?

I have no idea what's changed. Could be something he did on his own this offseason, could be working with new coaches, or could be random statistical SSS noise.

I was going to just let it go, but I agree. If I've followed this correctly, they are dunking and claiming victory that the org heard Bassitt's comments and wanted him to clarify himself. Yeah no s***. That's like a grown man dunking on a Little Tykes basketball net. I've yet to see any evidence that Bassitt put his tail between his legs and retracted his original intent because the org told him to (or else!). I mean, he might have - but there's a chance that his clarification is exactly what he meant too. The case remains wide open IMO...likely never to shut.

How did the Pirates fix Joey Bart? 133 wRC+ in over 200+ PA's now. He couldn't even hit at AAA while he was with the Giants.

Yeah - I'd be in favour of that. He's a mess - let's give some at bats to other young players.