Brownie19

Sorry - I misread what he was trying to say. It is valid, although I don't think you can completely dismiss the fact the Jays outbid everyone in the league for one of, if not the top FA in baseball (Springer). They've done it before, but yes, Springer is a different animal than Soto.

There is some credit there - but the probability of him having this type of season were almost 0. I'm sure they expected they might get a 1-2 WAR solid bench player season out of him and there might have been a 40-50% chance of that happening. Getting what he got out of him is primarily luck.

Preller deserves a lot of credit. I'm not sure how, but it's working great for them this year. I don't know how sustainable it is, but I can look past that right now. That said, he doesn't deserve a lot of credit (or any?) for Profar. Profar is pure luck. It's almost crazy he gave him a guaranteed $1M contract after a -1.6 WAR season in 2023! -1.6 WAR to 4.3 WAR is an insane turnaround (even for a guy who's bounced between negative WAR and solid seasons a few times before).

Merrill is the only home grown player on their entire roster. But man - this looks like a team that could win the WS. Real shame that Kim is out for the year....I think they're going to need to get something out of Bogaerts or Cronenworth to go all the way. A lot of things have fallen their way, which could make them a team of destiny in 2024.

I do yes. Playoff baseball is always a crapshoot. HEAVY series favorites are only expected to win 60% of the time. Most series favorites are only expected to win 55% of the time. My views aren't very bold - it's just some fans are not smart.

I think he has generational hitting talent. But he's entirely one dimensional. He's David Ortiz, or Manny Ramirez.

I'll take "I'm talking out my ass" for $500 Alex. And if you're going to suggest nobody was willing to add the 6th year - well duh - having to add that extra year is often how teams put themselves over the top to land the FA.

The Tigers and Royals lineups are f***ing awful.

Wasn't I trying to say this during the season and someone was arguing with me about it? Probably connorp because he only considers fantasy baseball.

What is Max Fried going to get as a FA?

I think the reality is that guys who have power and don't strike out are just really good hitters and having really good hitters makes you a better ball club. It's not as simple as adding a bunch of high ISO, 30%+ K rate guys, nor can you just add a bunch of Ernie Clements. I can see it both ways. Those high K rate guys can be streaky and you just need them to get hot at right time and rip some homers. Instant offense with one swing of the bat can be huge. The downfall is the pitching is better in the playoffs, so that 30% K rate likely increases to 35-40% v. top pitching every night. If they don't get hot, they kill your chances of manufacturing runs and the swing and miss reduces the BABIP possibilities. On the flipside, if you have guys that put the ball in play, it gives you a chance for the BABIP god to shine down upon you. It also gives you the opportunity to manufacture some runs or score in errors and such. But again, that's harder to do v. top pitching every night and with this approach, you may still need to string together multiple hits to score runs (although perhaps the increased bases and resurgence of the SB will help counteract this?). I'm not sure there's one definitive answer...

Of interest: YEAR WS WINNER K% RANKING 2015 Kansas City 1st 2016 Chicago 15th 2017 Houston 1st 2018 Boston 3rd 2019 Washington 5th 2020 Los Angeles 3rd 2021 Atlanta 22nd 2022 Houston 2nd 2023 Texas 15th To be fair, he didn't say home runs weren't important or didn't matter. He said "In today's game, you have to be cognizant of strikeouts when you add power." Also says contact is "exceptionally important" in the playoffs, so "not as simple as plug in a power bat" unless they're versatile. I don't think there's any doubt that home runs play a bit role in the playoffs, but it's often about getting hot at the right time and hitting home runs at the right time. Maybe those big power, 30% K rate guys do give you a better shot of getting hot and going on a tear in the playoffs? Beats me, but I certainly wouldn't call that 'concrete evidence'.

That Detroit lineup is so gross. It's Green, Carpenter and a bunch of BUMS. The bottom 5 guys are all below (and in some cases WELL below) replacement level bats.

That is an interesting tidbit. This was all the rage back in like 2017-18. You certainly see this philosophy utilized in our FA signings and draft picks over the last 3+ years.

Sure is. I just watched a video where people bet the over for Mahomes to have 19.5 yards rushing v. Atlanta. He was at 30 yards rushing when they got the ball back with like 50 seconds to go. He kept trying to hold the ball and kill time (ATL had time outs to use)...he ended up losing 12 yards, kneeling 3 times. And even worse was the last kneel down could have been a traditional one, but he decided to step back and lose the final few yards to screw those who took the over. Hilarious stuff

Tough look for the Brewers having to start Frankie Montas in a must win game. Maybe MLB is forcing them to?

Ah - thanks. Wasn't able to watch.

I can't believe the O's let Bobby Witt beat them. I love it.

He DH'd...

I know they had to battle to get in, but that's like the Jays starting Bassitt in Game 1 of the WC series. Barf.

I mean - typically you're doing this so your franchise catcher is ready for a large load in the playoffs (pardon my pun). It's not like they want to get Brian McCann in the lineup and don't have other bats to DH. Seems odd, but maybe Burnes hates Adley.

Surprised Skubal was pulled after 6 innings / 88 pitches. If Vest coughed up the lead, fans would have lost their minds.

O's are DH'ing Rutschman? Is he hurt?

Yeah that's all fair and I get there are always some sacrificial lambs. At the end of the day, it's all just a big guess for us fans, which is why I'm typically defensive of fans suggesting supplemental coaches should lose their jobs. I hate that fans look at the results and say "see he sucks" so confidently - like changing the hitting coach will solve all the teams offensive problems, without acknowledging the same guy was the hitting coach during a very recent 3 year stretch were we were Top 3 in baseball. In the same breath - shouldn't we fire Pete Walker too? The Jays pitching, especially the bullpen, sucked balls this year. Gausman, Berrios, etc. all declined - quick - blame the pitching coach - fire him right? Why hasn't Pete fixed Berrios? Why did Manoah stuff decline? Why couldn't he fix Mayza (who was back throwing 95+ with the Yanks like 1 month after leaving the Jays)? Why isn't Green getting results, despite great Stuff+? Why can't we develop any arms? Why is every RP prospect in AAA walking 8 guys per 9?

I think he's just trying to reiterate that Soto is significantly better than Vlad. If Vlad wants and will get Soto money, then we're either trading him or letting him walk and let's try to get Soto instead.